Peyton vs. Perfection (Denver vs KC breakdown) MMQB

[Quesadilla Joe]

It's the Game Of The Year so far: the prolific Denver Broncos vs. the stingy Kansas City Chiefs. Can Peyton Manning and company hand K.C. its first loss?

http://mmqb.si.com/2013/11/14/denver...eyton-manning/


This AFC West showdown between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs is as good as it gets for football in November. No division rivals have ever squared off with fewer than two losses between them so late in the season. The Broncos (8-1) are scoring an obscene 41.2 points per game, by far the best in the NFL. The Chiefs (9-0) are giving up just 12.3 points per contest, also a league best. As Jack Nicholson and Diane Keaton once taught us, something’s gotta give.

Broncos offense vs. Chiefs defense

1. Pressuring Peyton

A hot topic right now is Peyton Manning’s protection. It hasn’t been great in recent weeks, which is to be somewhat expected given that anchor Ryan Clady (IR) has been replaced by Chris Clark. The 28-year-old undrafted journeyman has given up a few critical blind-side hits, though he’s not the only culprit on this struggling line. Right tackle Orlando Franklin also has been caught flat-footed a few times. Manning, with precise pocket movement and rapid progression-read ability, is generally able to overcome shoddy protection. But two bum ankles—plus copious bumps and bruises on his 37-year-old-body—make eluding pressure a taller order these days.

The Chiefs know how to apply pressure. Tamba Hali and Justin Houston give defensive coordinator Bob Sutton the rare privilege of scheming with dynamic rushers from both edges. One of the two almost always faces one-on-one pass blocking. Both might see it frequently at the same time on Sunday night, as Manning prefers to go with a minimum five-man protection in order to have five eligible receivers at his disposal. (This is one reason why running back Knowshon Moreno catches so many short passes.)

Kansas City has been one of the most complex and successful blitzing teams in the NFL this season, particularly on 3rd-and-long when Sutton loves to play dime and send speedy corners and safeties after the quarterback. Though a sizeable chunk of Kansas City’s league-leading 36 sacks have come out of complex pressure packages, don’t expect Sutton to use a lot of them against the Broncos. Most defensive coordinators refrain from blitzing Manning. The Chargers had some success with it, but they only called for pressure in the second half after it became apparent that their defensive backs could not compete with Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Wes Welker and Julius Thomas. Kansas City’s defensive backs can challenge those receivers.

2. The Man-to-Man Matchups

The closest any defense has come to slowing Denver was Indianapolis’s, when cornerbacks Vontae Davis, Greg Toler and Darius Butler stymied Manning’s receivers for most of the first three quarters in Week 7. (Injuries to Davis and Butler changed Indy’s fortunes down the stretch.) The Broncos know how to beat man coverage—they’ve mastered barely legal pick plays and intertwined crossing patterns—but they have yet to face a man-coverage defense as sturdy as the Chiefs’. At the same time, Kansas City hasn’t faced an offense with these types of weapons. The following individual matchups will likely determine the outcome of the game:

Outside: CBs Sean Smith and Marcus Cooper vs. WRs Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker

Smith is lanky and physical, though he’s been a bit shaky as of late. (Receiver Stevie Johnson was right when he said that Smith’s 98-yard pick-six against Buffalo was “lucky.” Smith was in position to make that interception only because Johnson had juked him so far sideways off the line of scrimmage.) When Smith plays with discipline, he’s one of the best boundary defenders in the game. But if he gets antsy against double moves—something Thomas and Decker perform extremely well—he could wind up in trouble.

On the other side, Cooper, a seventh-round pick of the Niners this past spring, is a legitimate Rookie of the Year candidate. He has an innate sense for playing both the ball and the receiver in isolated coverage against vertical routes on the outside. He also has good closing quickness when working back to the ball, especially for someone who is 6-2. For all of Cooper’s merits, don’t be surprised if Manning still tests him early. The young corner did get beat twice due to missteps in his press-jam technique in Kansas City’s last game.

Inside: CB Brandon Flowers vs. slot receiver Wes Welker

Since Week 5, Flowers, one of the NFL’s best boundary corners, has been playing the slot in nickel and dime. So far, the results have been stellar. Flowers is a surprisingly good blitzer, and more importantly, he knows how to apply his physicality in the wider spaces that come with playing inside. Most corners, even elite ones, can’t do that. We’ll find out on Sunday whether Flowers really is a slot aficionado. He’s yet to face an inside receiver of Welker’s caliber.

Inside: SS Eric Berry vs. TE Julius Thomas

Berry has transformed from a liability to an asset covering tight ends—though he hasn’t been severely tested except for when he controlled Jason Witten one-on-one in Week 2. The Broncos have the most dynamic tight end in the AFC not named Rob Gronkowski. And their system does a good job getting Thomas open by design.


3. Building Offense

Contrary to popular belief, the Broncos don’t do many complicated things offensively. Instead, they do many simple things really well. One is called “building offense,” meaning they use certain plays early in the game to set up other plays later in the game. Defenders think they’re spotting something familiar, but they’re actually being set up to be exploited. The good thing about being a man-based defense (like the Chiefs) is you’re a less susceptible to this sort of deception because coverage defenders don’t see the ball or route designs to begin with; their focus is solely on their man.

This doesn’t mean the Broncos won’t try to build offense. Instead of doing it with a combination of two or three different routes, they’ll do it on a more individualized basis. We saw a great example of this with Demaryius Thomas scoring two touchdowns at San Diego.





Kansas City’s cornerbacks must concentrate on getting stops, not interceptions. If they start cheating against Denver’s routes, they’ll get burned by a twist.


Chiefs offense vs. Broncos defense

There’s a perception that Denver’s defense is iffy, maybe even porous. That’s only because its two bad performances happened to coincide with the team’s two most-watched games: Week 5 at Dallas, and Week 7 at Indy. Take out those contests and this group is allowing a respectable 21.6 points per game.

The Chiefs lack the same offensive firepower that the Cowboys or Colts have. Their system hinges on Jamaal Charles being able to turn the outside corner in the ground game, and converting a few screens into first downs. Their passing game is limited, mainly because Alex Smith is committed to doing whatever it takes to not lose games. So far he’s been successful in this regard, but in order for the undefeated Chiefs to be genuine Super Bowl contenders, he at some point will have to actually make plays to win a game. This doesn’t mean making a gutsy play late in the fourth quarter; it means having the fortitude to consistently take advantage of big-play opportunities.

Smith is nowhere close to doing that right now. The TV camera angles that get beamed into living rooms across the country might show Smith not throwing interceptions. What those camera angles don’t show, however, is him missing wide-open receivers at the intermediate levels. They also don’t show him abandoning plays before receivers have finished their routes. We can see this, though, thanks to the All-22 film.






As this game probably will prove, Kansas City’s defense can’t keep holding opponents to under 20 points while also creating points of its own each week. Kansas City’s offense (i.e. Smith) will have to get sharper.

[Quesadilla Joe]

Originally Posted by SNR

I'm sure you watched a TON of Badger football, right?

No. I got that information from an article where Studesville said basically what I just posted.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead

Alex is equally pathetic in YPA so I'm not sure what your point is.

We need a more productive passing game, by a large margin.

And I am not talking about deep balls. Alex needs to hit those 15-25-yard throws consistently for us to have a chance.

This season, yes he has been.

But your earlier position was that there's no point in improving the line or the WRs because he won't use them.

Well he was elite in YPA with a line full of All-Pro guys in 2012. And he was average in YPA in 2011. Yes, Alex Smith is greatly improved when he's not worrying about his protection. The actual eye test shows that, as did all those nifty little PFF metrics you ignore whenever they don't support your crap.

Yes, this season's Alex Smith is struggling mightily, but it's due in large part to a line that simply can't protect, especially up the middle. That's catastrophic to a QB confidence and impacts everything he tries to do.

And if you're now defining 'throwing the ball downfield' as 15 yard passes, well that's a hell of an about-face.

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by Von Dumbass

No. I got that information from an article where Studesville said basically what I just posted.

So once again you're not forming your own opinion and spamming the board with shit you read elsewhere? Good to know.

[MileHighFish]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

I'm not saying he'll always sucks; I'm just saying he's not scaring anybody but you guys right now.

.. Which makes it a lot easier to key on him. Moreno is about the 6th worry a team is going to have when facing the Broncos. He has more TDs because he plays on a much, much, much, much more prolific offense and that's the only reason.

Agree with both points. The funny thing is, I always use to worry about Moreno fumbling but now he is "the reliable back".... That honestly scares me the most. He has been very good securing the ball so far this season but who knows how long that will continue.

[MahiMike]

Where Denver uses 'per game' offense building, Andy Reid has been using 'per season' offense building.

He's shown the world that Alex is nothing but a check down manager.

But this week will be different!

This week Andy takes the reins off of his Superman QB, Alex takes off his glasses...

And unleashes his POWER onto the helpless victims once known as the Denver Broncos!!!

Hells Yeah!

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by MileHighFish

Agree with both points. The funny thing is, I always use to worry about Moreno fumbling but now he is "the reliable back".... That honestly scares me the most. He has been very good securing the ball so far this season but who knows how long that will continue.

I'm cool with it lasting until about 8:31 EST the 17th.

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Well he was elite in YPA with a line full of All-Pro guys in 2012. And he was average in YPA in 2011..

I believe that was a deceptive statistic, because last year he threw the ball down the field less than almost every other starting QB.

And it was reflected in his again pathetic yards per completion.

And that was partially intermediate throws, too, because he did that less than 2010 Matt ****ing Cassel.

[MileHighFish]

From what I have seen thus far this season of KC's offense (admittedly limited), there have been instances where receivers get open but Smith doesn't seem to see them. Is this solely because of pressure (or anticipated pressure) or is Smith just not identifying them?

If Smith gets even a decent passing game going, look out... I just don't believe KC can continue to lean so heavily on the defense and special teams and continue to succeed at such a high level the remainder of the season... Don't get me wrong, I also feel Denver need to step it up significantly defensively if they expect to do anything at all in the post season.

[MileHighFish]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

I'm cool with it lasting until about 8:31 EST the 17th.

While I was typing that about Moreno, I debated if I should post it or if it might jinx him...

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by ThaVirus

Not only have Hillman and Ball has ball security issues, they can't be trusted in pass protection and aren't as good of hands out of the backfield. For as suck ass as Moreno is, he's elevated his play a bit this season. He still sucks but at least he's complete.

Agreed.

[Anyong Bluth]

Just figured I'd post this here instead of making a whole new thread for another article about the game.

Probably one of the more heady writers that seem convinced about the Chiefs, and boldly putting it out there that he thinks it will be the Donkeys that will have to sweat it out facing us given our personnel matchups for Sunday's game.

Enjoy!

Kansas City Chiefs primed for statement vs. Denver Broncos

Adam Schein
NFL Media columnist

In a season when the NFL's prime-time games have been quite lackluster, it's not too early to start the rightful hype and awesome anticipation for this week's "Sunday Night Football" matchup between the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs and one-loss Denver Broncos.

In Denver's first game without head coach John Fox, whose recovery timeline remains uncertain, Peyton Manning provided yet another dynamite effort, overwhelming the San Diego Chargers on Sunday. Now the showdown with K.C. for first place in the AFC West is just six days away.

Truth be told, this weekend's clash at Mile High absolutely is a must-win game for the Broncos. While I'm a believer in the Chiefs, the outside perception is that they have a Cinderella feel to them -- everyone's waiting for the magic to wear off. They will head to Denver with a focused attitude, but they aren't expected to win. And despite the venue -- despite Denver owning an amazing and pronounced home-field advantage, especially in prime time -- I'm not convinced the Broncos will be able to hold off the Chiefs.

You read that correctly.

A few things are at play here.

Manning clearly isn't 100 percent physically. He was knocked around a bunch by San Diego, most notably taking a low hit late in the fourth quarter from Chargers defensive end Corey Liuget that aggravated a prior right ankle injury. Manning said after the game that he was in pain and pretty sore. Sure looked like it. And for him to admit that to reporters is pretty telling. Fortunately for Denver, an MRI on Monday showed no new damage to the ankle, so Manning is good to go against K.C. Still, this furthers a disconcerting trend.

Manning has been bruised and battered over the past month by the Jaguars, Colts and Chargers. While the Broncos still won two of those three games, the one defeat -- at Indianapolis -- can be directly attributed to pressure applied on Manning. The Colts brought heat all throughout that Week 7 game, sacking Manning four times and hitting him plenty more. One play that particularly stood out was Robert Mathis' jarring, safety-causing lick; Manning clearly was impacted, as he threw ducks for the remainder of the game. This underlines an inconvenient truth about the Broncos juggernaut: The offensive line is vulnerable, especially so since Ryan Clady went down with a season-ending foot injury.

Now Manning must deal with the Chiefs, who not only boast the NFL's best pass rush but have the players to frustrate and dominate without blitzing.The Chiefs have racked up a league-high 36 sacks, with outside linebackers Justin Houston (11 sacks) and Tamba Hali (nine) leading the charge.

When I talked to Hali a few weeks ago on my SiriusXM Radio show, "Schein on Sports," he stressed how difficult it is for a team to game plan against the K.C. pass rush. How do you employ a double-team with a true presence coming off the edge on each side? What do you do about second-year nose tackle Dontari Poe, an immovable (and unblockable) object in the middle?The ability to pressure Manning without blitzing gives Kansas City's very solid defensive backfield a chance to contain Denver's dynamic receiving weapons (Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker and Julius Thomas).Chiefs defensive coordinator Bob Sutton will have his unit ready. K.C. stifles opposing quarterbacks, yielding the NFL's lowest figures in opponent passer rating (67.8) and completion percentage (53.5). And I'll be surprised if Broncos running back Knowshon Moreno can get going against Poe, Derrick Johnson and the Chiefs' run defense.

If Manning is healthy (or healthy enough), this will be a classic confrontation between an offense filled with the aforementioned galaxy of stars and a defense that has allowed just nine touchdown passes in nine games while yielding a league-low 12.3 points per contest. The Broncos continued their aerial assault on the NFL in the 28-20 win over the Chargers on Sunday, with Manning shredding San Diego for 330 passing yards and four touchdowns (without a single pick). The Broncos now have scored 371 points this year -- the most through the first nine games of a season in NFL history -- while easily pacing the league with an average of 458.7 yards per game.

It goes without saying that this will be the Chiefs' toughest test yet, the truest challenge to their unblemished mark. But beyond Kansas City's stingy, playmaking defense, its offense is built to beat the Broncos.

Jamaal Charles is putting together a sensational season, leading the Chiefs in rushing yards and receptions while ranking second in the NFL with 1,114 yards from scrimmage. He can run on Denver, moving the chains, controlling the clock and -- most importantly -- keeping Manning off the field. Charles also will take short passes from Alex Smith and make big gains.

And yes, Alex Smith is a positive.

Smith told me last Monday on "Schein on Sports" that he truly doesn't care about "QB ranking or fantasy stats" -- and he shouldn't. Smith is one of the most self-aware athletes you'll ever encounter. He is comfortable in his own skin, but he still plays with a chip on his shoulder from past experiences.

Smith really only cares about one thing: winning. And that's something he's done plenty of lately, compiling a 29-6-1 mark in the last 36 NFL games he's started. Smith told me about the quick bond he formed with new coach Andy Reid; it began with their first phone conversation, when Reid quizzed Smith on a play. (Smith, of course, had the answer Reid was looking for.) These two are attached at the hip, seeing the game the same way. You can call Smith a game manager or question his arm. I call Smith a winner, someone who doesn't make mistakes with the game on the line. This is a guy who simply will not turn over the ball, will not give Manning extra opportunities. Smith -- reflecting the Chiefs as a whole right now -- oozes confidence.

The West is the AFC's best division, with the Chiefs and Broncos headlining conference chatter. The division winner is in prime position to get the No. 1 seed (and accompanying first-round bye), with the runner-up likely dropping to a No. 5 slot. Teams routinely make Super Bowl runs from the wild-card round -- see: the 2012 Baltimore Ravens -- but I believe it's important for Denver to win the division, given Manning's health concerns and age. Meanwhile, Kansas City obviously desires home-field advantage in the playoffs, given that Arrowhead Stadium represents the second-best environment in the NFL (behind CenturyLink Field in Seattle). The venue is a true game-changer for the Chiefs.

Chiefs haters attack the schedule they've played and say Denver will expose them. (I wrote about this a few weeks ago.) I don't see that happening.

Though Manning and the Broncos will be the hosts of this Sunday's epic AFC West showdown, Kansas City is getting Denver at the right time to make a statement.

Follow Adam Schein on Twitter @AdamSchein.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Pam Oliver's Forehead

I believe that was a deceptive statistic, because last year he threw the ball down the field less than almost every other starting QB.

And it was reflected in his again pathetic yards per completion.

And that was partially intermediate throws, too, because he did that less than 2010 Matt ****ing Cassel.

Of course you believe it was deceptive, it doesn't fit your narrative that you have to throw downfield to win. You prefer YPC but you haven't provided any support for it being a stat more in line with actually winning ballgames - only that you believe throwing deep wins and deep throws bolster a YPC but not necessarily YPA because of the lower completion rate.

You call it deceptive because you swear you have to throw deep to win.

Smith didn't. He was efficient. He won.

What's deceptive about that? You may think the results are an outlier, but if a guy can go complete his passes as frequently as Smith did last year, living from 8-12 yards and in will be fine. Actual results support this.

The problem is that he's turned into a chickenshit that won't finish his delivery and won't wait for his routes to develop.

[htismaqe]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Yes, this season's Alex Smith is struggling mightily, but it's due in large part to a line that simply can't protect, especially up the middle. That's catastrophic to a QB confidence and impacts everything he tries to do.

And given where all these guys were drafted, it's pretty disappointing.

[ThaVirus]

It's a combination of things. We switched blocking schemes this offseason and our 1.1 RT was a walking abortikn for about the first seven weeks of the season. So despite spending shitloads of high picks on all five of our starting linemen, they're still young and learning a new system. Maybe they're out of scheme or still learning, who knows, but they suck at pass protection and often can't clear out any lanes for Jamaal to run as evidenced by his shitty YPC this season (which, coincidentally, is actually right around league average- he's that amazing).

So basically you have a running game that struggles to get going until the 4th quarter and a QB that's forced to run scared often and stare down the rush, feeling phantom pressure when there isn't any. Combine that with the fact that Smith has never really been known as a guy to take risks and you have a passing game that basically consists of check downs to backs.

I think Jamaal has more catches than either Bowe or Avery do targets. Something needs to change and as much as Smith pisses me off, I realize that it needs to start with the offensive line.

EDIT: This was a response to MileHighFish

[Hammock Parties]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

You call it deceptive because you swear you have to throw deep to win.

Smith didn't. He was efficient. He won.

He won with defense. As he has always done.

He is the luckiest son of a bitch alive.