Chiefs Vegas lines on games relevant to us - Page 2

FringeNC · 12-21-2015, 09:56 AM

KC -12.5 Cleveland
Denver -3.5 Cinci
NE -3 Jets
Pittsburgh -10 Baltimore

Probably has been awhile since we've been 12.5 favorites. Also, Denver's line is a little surprising. Seems a little high.

scho63 · 12-21-2015, 07:49 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smellypitts

want it to be 50-50? No, they want to gain the majority and have everyone on the wrong side as much as possible. They want to bait people and have them be so stupid that its a 90-10 split when they can.

I can see why your REP is so red.

You are dead wrong. 1000% wrong.

Bookies and sports books work to make the SPREAD OR VIGORISH. If bookies or sports books tried to "BET" on one side or the other, they would be out of business so fast because the odds are not with them.

You need to learn before you state something as fact that is 100% incorrect.

Why Not? · 12-21-2015, 07:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chiefzilla1501

And New England (I'm not holding my breath at all on Baltimore).

True

scho63 · 12-21-2015, 07:59 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smellypitts

want it to be 50-50? No, they want to gain the majority and have everyone on the wrong side as much as possible. They want to bait people and have them be so stupid that its a 90-10 split when they can.

Read this and maybe you will learn something

http://www.gamblingsites.org/sports-...rs-make-money/

O.city · 12-21-2015, 08:05 PM

Vegas wants 50 50 so they're winning wither way.

Simple math

KChiefs1 · 12-21-2015, 08:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marco Polo

Who do we need to win each of these games?

Here's a fun thought: if the CHIEFS, Steelers, Jets and Bengals all win next week, Denver will not be in playoffs headed into week 17 and will need a loss from KC, Pitt or New York to make it in.

**Saul Good** · 12-21-2015, 08:10 PM

You're both right. In general, sports books want the money to be balanced. Vegas will gamble, though. There are plenty of games in which Vegas has information that the public doesn't and will encourage people to bet on the wrong side by leaving the line alone or even moving it the opposite direction when the majority is on the side they think will lose.

You can sniff those games out by watching for games with wildly disproportionate amounts placed on one side without corresponding line movements. Finding those games and betting contrarian is the basis of my betting strategy.

WhawhaWhat · 12-21-2015, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smellypitts

want it to be 50-50? No, they want to gain the majority and have everyone on the wrong side as much as possible. They want to bait people and have them be so stupid that its a 90-10 split when they can.

Why not go 97-3 if they can?

Toby Waller · 12-21-2015, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scho63

I can see why your REP is so red.

You are dead wrong. 1000% wrong.

Bookies and sports books work to make the SPREAD OR VIGORISH. If bookies or sports books tried to "BET" on one side or the other, they would be out of business so fast because the odds are not with them.

You need to learn before you state something as fact that is 100% incorrect.

where am I wrong? the point of gambling is to profit 100%.
they dont hope to go 50-50. they know they gain the majority no matter what the public does. Its not based on one game at a time.
they give odds on all 16 games and make a couple look decent/realistic to the public so a few people think they are doing well.
But they give ridiculous odds on the other games and will never do worse than 70-30 in their favor. They give the over/under, total, bet on spread,bet on team,move the line 3 times = if they do 50-50 it means they failed miserably.
and the mafia wouldnt even talk to them let alone worry about them or hire them.

they know theyll lose money on one game but everyone will get raked the other 15.

Gambling is a dark art. its not something fun they want dumb ass Johnny Suburb to do well in.

I'm sorry, I just think its funny when people try to talk about gambling like its some simple process or just another business.

Toby Waller · 12-21-2015, 08:13 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WhawhaWhat

Why not go 97-3 if they can?

of course. I was just giving a majority number for the hell of it

O.city · 12-21-2015, 08:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saul Good

You're both right. In general, sports books want the money to be balanced. Vegas will gamble, though. There are plenty of games in which Vegas has information that the public doesn't and will encourage people to bet on the wrong side by leaving the line alone or even moving it the opposite direction when the majority is on the side they think will lose.

You can sniff those games out by watching for games with wildly disproportionate amounts placed on one side without corresponding line movements. Finding those games and betting contrarian is the basis of my betting strategy.

I'd imagine that's pretty rare, no?

O.city · 12-21-2015, 08:16 PM

And smellypitts is blackbob. It's pretty obvious

WhawhaWhat · 12-21-2015, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smellypitts

where am I wrong? the point of gambling is to profit 100%.
they dont hope to go 50-50. they know they gain the majority no matter what the public does. Its not based on one game at a time.
they give odds on all 16 games and make a couple look decent/realistic to the public so a few people think they are doing well.
But they give ridiculous odds on the other games and will never do worse than 70-30 in their favor. They give the over/under, total, bet on spread,bet on team,move the line 3 times = if they do 50-50 it means they failed miserably.
and the mafia wouldnt even talk to them let alone worry about them or hire them.

they know theyll lose money on one game but everyone will get raked the other 15.

Gambling is a dark art. its not something fun they want dumb ass Johnny Suburb to do well in.

I'm sorry, I just think its funny when people try to talk about gambling like its some simple process or just another business.

okcchief · 12-21-2015, 10:27 PM

It seems like you would want to win the division and get homefield, but I'd much rather play Houston with Brandon Weeden on the road than Pittsburgh with Ben at home. Am I wrong?

TEX · 12-21-2015, 10:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by okcchief

It seems like you would want to win the division and get homefield, but I'd much rather play Houston with Brandon Weeden on the road than Pittsburgh with Ben at home. Am I wrong?

I totally agree. Plus, I'd get to go to the game in Houston and I was at the Chiefs last playoff win.... in Houston.

Come to think of it, that year's playoff run started with a victory over Pittsburgh at Arrowhead.

-King- · 12-21-2015, 10:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by okcchief

It seems like you would want to win the division and get homefield, but I'd much rather play Houston with Brandon Weeden on the road than Pittsburgh with Ben at home. Am I wrong?

You're not wrong but if we have a home playoff game it'll be against the Broncos or Jets.
Posted via Mobile Device

12-21-2015, 09:56 AM
FringeNC MVP Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: NC Casino cash: $-1693986	Vegas lines on games relevant to us KC -12.5 Cleveland Denver -3.5 Cinci NE -3 Jets Pittsburgh -10 Baltimore Probably has been awhile since we've been 12.5 favorites. Also, Denver's line is a little surprising. Seems a little high.
Posts: 10,234

12-21-2015, 08:05 PM	#19
O.city In Search of a Life Join Date: Jul 2009 Casino cash: $-635936	Vegas wants 50 50 so they're winning wither way. Simple math
Posts: 84,203

12-21-2015, 08:10 PM	#21
Saul Good Quit your bullshit Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Bored of winning Casino cash: $10052799	You're both right. In general, sports books want the money to be balanced. Vegas will gamble, though. There are plenty of games in which Vegas has information that the public doesn't and will encourage people to bet on the wrong side by leaving the line alone or even moving it the opposite direction when the majority is on the side they think will lose. You can sniff those games out by watching for games with wildly disproportionate amounts placed on one side without corresponding line movements. Finding those games and betting contrarian is the basis of my betting strategy.
Posts: 41,870

12-21-2015, 08:16 PM	#26
O.city In Search of a Life Join Date: Jul 2009 Casino cash: $-635936	And smellypitts is blackbob. It's pretty obvious
Posts: 84,203

12-21-2015, 10:27 PM	#28
okcchief MVP Join Date: Jul 2008 Casino cash: $9849890	It seems like you would want to win the division and get homefield, but I'd much rather play Houston with Brandon Weeden on the road than Pittsburgh with Ben at home. Am I wrong?
Posts: 6,703