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Old 12-21-2015, 09:56 AM  
FringeNC FringeNC is offline
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Vegas lines on games relevant to us
KC -12.5 Cleveland
Denver -3.5 Cinci
NE -3 Jets
Pittsburgh -10 Baltimore

Probably has been awhile since we've been 12.5 favorites. Also, Denver's line is a little surprising. Seems a little high.
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Old 12-21-2015, 09:58 AM   #2
ptlyon ptlyon is offline
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Not really, not without Dalton
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Old 12-21-2015, 10:13 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by FringeNC View Post
KC -12.5 Cleveland
Denver -3.5 Cinci
NE -3 Jets
Pittsburgh -10 Baltimore

Probably has been awhile since we've been 12.5 favorites. Also, Denver's line is a little surprising. Seems a little high.
Home teams get a starting 3 points in the spread and then they move the line towards whoever is the favorite.

On a neutral field, Denver would be only a 1/2 point favorite.
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Old 12-21-2015, 10:15 AM   #4
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[QUOTE=scho63;11968072]
Quote:
Originally Posted by FringeNC View Post
KC -12.5 Cleveland
Denver -3.5 Cinci
NE -3 Jets
Pittsburgh -10 Baltimore

Probably has been awhile since we've been 12.5 favorites. Also, Denver's line is a little surprising. Seems a little high. /QUOTE]

Home teams get a starting 3 points in the spread and then they move the line towards whoever is the favorite.

On a neutral field, Denver would be only a 1/2 point favorite.
As noted above, to me the spread seems even low considering Bengals are rolling with McCarron
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Old 12-21-2015, 10:16 AM   #5
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Originally Posted by ptlyon View Post
Not really, not without Dalton
When Dalton got injured I thought Denver could easily beat them, but Cinci is a MUCH better overall team than Denver. If McCarron can just manage the game and not make mistakes, I think Cinci can win by 2 scores. Denver literally can't score in 2nd halves and their defense hasn't looked great lately. They're in trouble.
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Old 12-21-2015, 11:25 AM   #6
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Home teams get a starting 3 points in the spread and then they move the line towards whoever is the favorite.

On a neutral field, Denver would be only a 1/2 point favorite.
No,they move the line in the opposite direction of where more money is being bet
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Old 12-21-2015, 11:54 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by -King- View Post
When Dalton got injured I thought Denver could easily beat them, but Cinci is a MUCH better overall team than Denver. If McCarron can just manage the game and not make mistakes, I think Cinci can win by 2 scores. Denver literally can't score in 2nd halves and their defense hasn't looked great lately. They're in trouble.
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I'd agree but Denver has a really good D and when you make a mistake, they punish you for it. I think McCarron makes a couple mistakes. If Denver isn't inept on offense, they should be able to pull out a win because of it. Now if Brock looks like he did in the second half of yesterday's game, Cincy could roll out a high school QB and beat them. Pittsburgh gift wrapped it for them and they couldn't deliver.
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Old 12-21-2015, 12:07 PM   #8
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I'd agree but Denver has a really good D and when you make a mistake, they punish you for it. I think McCarron makes a couple mistakes. If Denver isn't inept on offense, they should be able to pull out a win because of it. Now if Brock looks like he did in the second half of yesterday's game, Cincy could roll out a high school QB and beat them. Pittsburgh gift wrapped it for them and they couldn't deliver.
The Chargers held the Broncos to 17 points, 0 in the 2nd half. Raiders held them to 15 points, 0 in the second half. After the Steelers adjusted, the Broncos scored 0 in the second half also. None of these defenses are any good and aren't even close to the Bengals defense. I don't see the Broncos scoring more than twice against them. If they're even average on offense, they can win.
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Old 12-21-2015, 12:12 PM   #9
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The Chargers held the Broncos to 17 points, 0 in the 2nd half. Raiders held them to 15 points, 0 in the second half. After the Steelers adjusted, the Broncos scored 0 in the second half also. None of these defenses are any good and aren't even close to the Bengals defense. I don't see the Broncos scoring more than twice against them. If they're even average on offense, they can win.
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Actually, the Chargers D held them to 10 pts. Not much you can do about a pick-six when you're sitting on the sidelines.
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Old 12-21-2015, 12:58 PM   #10
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Who do we need to win each of these games?
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Old 12-21-2015, 01:05 PM   #11
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Who do we need to win each of these games?
The Chiefs. But if you want to be concerned with other teams, cheer for Cinci this week
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Old 12-21-2015, 01:08 PM   #12
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The Chiefs. But if you want to be concerned with other teams, cheer for Cinci this week
And New England (I'm not holding my breath at all on Baltimore).
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Old 12-21-2015, 07:05 PM   #13
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No,they move the line in the opposite direction of where more money is being bet

You don't understand my statement. When they SET the opening line PRIOR to betting they give the home team a three point advantage and from there they set their initial line to the favorite. Denver opened at (- 3 1/2)

That means Denver got 3 for the home field and 1/2 point for their perceived advantage.

Money bet more on one side will start moving the line to the other team to balance out the bets. Bookies want the bets to be exactly 50-50.
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Old 12-21-2015, 07:19 PM   #14
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You don't understand my statement. When they SET the opening line PRIOR to betting they give the home team a three point advantage and from there they set their initial line to the favorite. Denver opened at (- 3 1/2)

That means Denver got 3 for the home field and 1/2 point for their perceived advantage.

Money bet more on one side will start moving the line to the other team to balance out the bets. Bookies want the bets to be exactly 50-50.
want it to be 50-50? No, they want to gain the majority and have everyone on the wrong side as much as possible. They want to bait people and have them be so stupid that its a 90-10 split when they can.
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Old 12-21-2015, 07:22 PM   #15
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want it to be 50-50? No, they want to gain the majority and have everyone on the wrong side as much as possible. They want to bait people and have them be so stupid that its a 90-10 split when they can.
I hope you don't gamble much
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