Chiefs Playoff chances, seeds, rooting guide, etc. - Page 4

**DaFace** · 12-07-2015, 04:20 PM

I always think it's fun to watch how our playoff chances shift from week to week as we get closer to the end of the year. Though we don't have cdcox's software to play with this time around, there are a number of websites you can use to get a similar idea of how things will work out.

A couple resources I like:

538.com's predictor updates after very game, includes game win probabilities and probabilities for a variety of playoff scenarios. Based on an Elo model that (if I understand it correctly) basically just looks at end-of-game score differentials compared to predicted differentials to arrive at a power rating of sorts.

The New York Times has a simulator kind of like what cdcox's software used to do. It's based on Sagarin ratings, which have a complicated methodology that isn't even entirely known, but it's some sort of model. The nice thing about this one is that you can mess with scenarios to see how they impact our odds.

Feel free to post other resources, power rankings, whatever. I mostly just want a place for me to post my random thoughts about the possibilities!

TEX · 12-14-2015, 08:02 AM

Deal is the Chiefs must KEEP winning because the Jets and Steelers are right there. One of the 3 will miss out if all are considered for a WC spot. Or, Pitt could win the division and drop Cinn into the WC tie-breaker system where KC does not own the tie-breakers. Things look good, but its not a done deal that the Chiefs even make the playoffs at this point.

**MahiMike** · 12-14-2015, 08:04 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Hog Farmer

Would be soooooo friggin awesome to see the Donkeys lose the next two.

Damn , we should have won the week 2 game. Damn !

I think about those 2 fumbles by JC every week. At the least we should be 9-4 and 1 game back right now.

TEX · 12-14-2015, 08:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MahiMike

My hope is that Jax wins the division and the Chiefs play here 1st week!

LOL! Good one....

ThaVirus · 12-14-2015, 08:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MahiMike

My hope is that Jax wins the division and the Chiefs play here 1st week!

Hadn't even really considered this much, but I'd go to that game if it happened.

**ChiefGator** · 12-14-2015, 08:40 AM

Hell yeah.. I live about 10 minutes from the Jags stadium.. that would be awesome!

**notorious** · 12-14-2015, 08:42 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MahiMike

I think about those 2 fumbles by JC every week. At the least we should be 9-4 and 1 game back right now.

It's ****ed up, but if Jamaal gets injured in the preseason this team might be leading the division........

Discuss Thrower · 12-14-2015, 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Lex Luthor

I don't really see an inconsistency. All games count when determining a division winner, and all games count when determining the wild card teams.

What do you want, no divisions? It's fine the way it is.

The very least is the top four seeds host at least one game regardless of division winning status.

A 7-9 team hosting a 10+ win wild card is bullshit.

TEX · 12-14-2015, 09:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

The very least is the top four seeds host at least one game regardless of division winning status.

A 7-9 team hosting a 10+ win wild card is bullshit.

Yep. Could very well happen in BOTH conferences this season. The NBA finally did something about that this season. The NFL should follow suit - especially since every year they're hell-bent on changing rules that always seem to include a few that don't make any sense. This rule change would be one that would make perfect sense.

Chiefnj2 · 12-14-2015, 09:42 AM

Remaining Schedules

Pittsburgh
home Denver
@ Ravens
@ Browns

NY Jets
@ Dallas
home Patriots
@ Buffalo

KC Chiefs
@ Ravens
home Browns
home Raiders

jonzie04 · 12-14-2015, 09:57 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by VAChief

I think if they lose out and finish 10-6 and the Chiefs, Jets and Steelers win out and finish 11-5, that should do it.

Pats, Bengals, South Winner and the Chiefs would be division winners with the Jets and Steelers the Wild Cards.

They could only lose 2, finish 11-5 and miss out as well if one L comes to the Steelers.

Chiefs win out 11-5 AFC Champs
Steelers win out 11-5 H2H over Denver 8-4 Conference
Jets Win out 11-5 8-4 Conference.
Broncos lose 2 11-5 7-4 Conference.

In that very unlikely scenario Denver would miss at 11-5

**DaFace** · 12-20-2015, 11:21 PM

As of right now, we're (not surprisingly) looking really good. FiveThirtyEight has bumped our chances at making the playoffs to 97% (41% chance of winning the AFCW), and the New York Times gives us the exact same chances (97%) of making it in general and 45% of winning the division.

As far as I know, if we in ONE of our next two games and either the Jets or Steelers lose ONE of their next two games, we're in. We have essentially ZERO chance of getting a bye, so we're basically just playing for home field advantage in round 1 (and who we play).

In terms of rooting guide for next week, it's all pretty simple at this point. We want:

Chiefs over Browns (17% swing in our chances)
Patriots over Jets (6% swing)
Ravens over Steelers (3% swing)

The Broncos/Bengals game has essentially no effect on our chances of making the playoffs at all, so that one just depends on whether you want the #3 seed at home vs. a tough wildcard team or the #5 seed on the road against a weak division winner.

Dante84 · 12-20-2015, 11:27 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaFace

The Broncos/Bengals game has essentially no effect on our chances of making the playoffs at all, so that one just depends on whether you want the #3 seed at home vs. a tough wildcard team or the #5 seed on the road against a weak division winner.

Really torn here.

If we're the 5 Seed:
R1: @Houston or @Indy

If we're the 3 seed:
R1: Host Steelers or Jets

Right?

**DaFace** · 12-20-2015, 11:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DA_T_84

Really torn here.

If we're the 5 Seed:
R1: @Houston or @Indy

If we're the 3 seed:
R1: Host Steelers or Jets

Right?

At this point, it's almost guaranteed (93% according to 538) that Houston will win that division at this point, so we can pencil them in as the #4.

Similarly, 538 says that the Steelers are far more likely than the Jets to make it at this point, so you can (more weakly) pencil the Steelers in as the #6.

So it's pretty much down to @Houston or vs. Pittsburgh (though I know I'm giving these odds a bit too much credit here).

Toby Waller · 12-21-2015, 12:07 AM

theres something I forget exactly how it works.

which seed plays which seed after the first round?

KChiefs1 · 12-21-2015, 12:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smellypitts

theres something I forget exactly how it works.

which seed plays which seed after the first round?

Highest seed vs Lowest seed.
2nd highest seed vs remaining team.

12-07-2015, 04:20 PM
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $1536899	Playoff chances, seeds, rooting guide, etc. I always think it's fun to watch how our playoff chances shift from week to week as we get closer to the end of the year. Though we don't have cdcox's software to play with this time around, there are a number of websites you can use to get a similar idea of how things will work out. A couple resources I like: 538.com's predictor updates after very game, includes game win probabilities and probabilities for a variety of playoff scenarios. Based on an Elo model that (if I understand it correctly) basically just looks at end-of-game score differentials compared to predicted differentials to arrive at a power rating of sorts. The New York Times has a simulator kind of like what cdcox's software used to do. It's based on Sagarin ratings, which have a complicated methodology that isn't even entirely known, but it's some sort of model. The nice thing about this one is that you can mess with scenarios to see how they impact our odds. Feel free to post other resources, power rankings, whatever. I mostly just want a place for me to post my random thoughts about the possibilities!
Posts: 52,036

12-14-2015, 08:02 AM	#46
TEX Out Gunning CP's Fandom Police Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Laguna Beach, CA Casino cash: $1883127	Deal is the Chiefs must KEEP winning because the Jets and Steelers are right there. One of the 3 will miss out if all are considered for a WC spot. Or, Pitt could win the division and drop Cinn into the WC tie-breaker system where KC does not own the tie-breakers. Things look good, but its not a done deal that the Chiefs even make the playoffs at this point. __________________ "The CHIEFS, HAVE THEIR DYNASTY!"
Posts: 34,790

12-14-2015, 08:40 AM	#50
ChiefGator Can these boys not play? Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Northcentral Florida Casino cash: $7522956	Hell yeah.. I live about 10 minutes from the Jags stadium.. that would be awesome! __________________ - Mark
Posts: 4,601

12-14-2015, 09:42 AM	#54
Chiefnj2 In Search of a Life Join Date: Mar 2007 Casino cash: $7813688	Remaining Schedules Pittsburgh home Denver @ Ravens @ Browns NY Jets @ Dallas home Patriots @ Buffalo KC Chiefs @ Ravens home Browns home Raiders __________________ Mismanaging the clock.
Posts: 22,396

12-20-2015, 11:21 PM	#56
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $1536899	As of right now, we're (not surprisingly) looking really good. FiveThirtyEight has bumped our chances at making the playoffs to 97% (41% chance of winning the AFCW), and the New York Times gives us the exact same chances (97%) of making it in general and 45% of winning the division. As far as I know, if we in ONE of our next two games and either the Jets or Steelers lose ONE of their next two games, we're in. We have essentially ZERO chance of getting a bye, so we're basically just playing for home field advantage in round 1 (and who we play). In terms of rooting guide for next week, it's all pretty simple at this point. We want: Chiefs over Browns (17% swing in our chances) Patriots over Jets (6% swing) Ravens over Steelers (3% swing) The Broncos/Bengals game has essentially no effect on our chances of making the playoffs at all, so that one just depends on whether you want the #3 seed at home vs. a tough wildcard team or the #5 seed on the road against a weak division winner.
Posts: 52,036

12-21-2015, 12:07 AM	#59
Toby Waller Banned Join Date: Oct 2015 Casino cash: $10000400	theres something I forget exactly how it works. which seed plays which seed after the first round?
Posts: 4,756