Playoff chances, seeds, rooting guide, etc.

[DaFace]

I always think it's fun to watch how our playoff chances shift from week to week as we get closer to the end of the year. Though we don't have cdcox's software to play with this time around, there are a number of websites you can use to get a similar idea of how things will work out.

A couple resources I like:

538.com's predictor updates after very game, includes game win probabilities and probabilities for a variety of playoff scenarios. Based on an Elo model that (if I understand it correctly) basically just looks at end-of-game score differentials compared to predicted differentials to arrive at a power rating of sorts.

The New York Times has a simulator kind of like what cdcox's software used to do. It's based on Sagarin ratings, which have a complicated methodology that isn't even entirely known, but it's some sort of model. The nice thing about this one is that you can mess with scenarios to see how they impact our odds.

Feel free to post other resources, power rankings, whatever. I mostly just want a place for me to post my random thoughts about the possibilities!

[Toby Waller]

Originally Posted by KChiefs1

Highest seed vs Lowest seed.
2nd highest seed vs remaining team.

rep'd

[penbrook]

We could possibly host the Broncos as well

[Spott]

Does anyone know why Pittsburgh has the tiebreaker of the Jets right now? Last week the Jets had the tiebreaker and now they are showing the Steelers as the 6th seed over the Jets.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by Spott

Does anyone know why Pittsburgh has the tiebreaker of the Jets right now? Last week the Jets had the tiebreaker and now they are showing the Steelers as the 6th seed over the Jets.

Wins tie break over NY Jets based on best win percentage in common games.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff

[Mother****erJones]

Originally Posted by smellypitts

theres something I forget exactly how it works.

which seed plays which seed after the first round?

[Mile High Mania]

Here's my quick thoughts... despite the 0-2 streak, Denver did look good in the first half on the road yesterday. Not sure what their problem is in the 2nd half, but considering the CIN and SD games are in DEN and CIN is without Dalton, I believe Denver wins out and finishes 12-4 with the #2 seed.

CIN will go 1-1 and PIT will go 2-0, setting up a rematch @ CIN in Round 1.

Jets lose out to NE, and KC wins out with HOU winning their division.

Sets up KC @ Houston, oddly enough... to end the curse.

Playing around with the ESPN machine. The Jets/NE game, Cin/Den Game, Oak/KC game are really critical. If the Jets can beat NE and then CIN or OAK give those two teams fits, this thing gets flipped around.

[Spott]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Wins tie break over NY Jets based on best win percentage in common games.

http://espn.go.com/nfl/standings/_/view/playoff

Thanks. I assume that mean the Jets could get the tiebreaker back from Pittsburgh if they beat a 12-2 New England team next week who Pittsburgh lost to earlier in the season.

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by DaFace

As of right now, we're (not surprisingly) looking really good. FiveThirtyEight has bumped our chances at making the playoffs to 97% (41% chance of winning the AFCW), and the New York Times gives us the exact same chances (97%) of making it in general and 45% of winning the division.

As far as I know, if we in ONE of our next two games and either the Jets or Steelers lose ONE of their next two games, we're in. We have essentially ZERO chance of getting a bye, so we're basically just playing for home field advantage in round 1 (and who we play).

In terms of rooting guide for next week, it's all pretty simple at this point. We want:

Chiefs over Browns (17% swing in our chances)
Patriots over Jets (6% swing)
Ravens over Steelers (3% swing)

The Broncos/Bengals game has essentially no effect on our chances of making the playoffs at all, so that one just depends on whether you want the #3 seed at home vs. a tough wildcard team or the #5 seed on the road against a weak division winner.

I'm struggling to wrap my head around 97%. We've got more than a 3% chance of losing out. Even if we're 80% to win each of our remaining games, that's a 4% chance that we lose both and a 36% chance that we lose at least one game.

I'm sure their numbers are accurate, but it seems like the odds of us losing while Pitt and NY win out is more than 3%.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by Spott

Thanks. I assume that mean the Jets could get the tiebreaker back from Pittsburgh if they beat a 12-2 New England team next week who Pittsburgh lost to earlier in the season.

Yeah, there are 3-4 incredibly critical games coming up this next week and then you have OAK @ KC that could play huge too, depending on what happens.

[Sully]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

I'm struggling to wrap my head around 97%. We've got more than a 3% chance of losing out. Even if we're 80% to win each of our remaining games, that's a 4% chance that we lose both and a 36% chance that we lose at least one game.

I'm sure their numbers are accurate, but it seems like the odds of us losing while Pitt and NY win out is more than 3%.

I'm not a math guy, but I would assume it also takes into account the percentages of other teams' success, too.

[BossChief]

If we beat Cleveland and the jets lose to NE, we are OFFICIALLY in the playoffs.

[TEX]

Originally Posted by BossChief

If we beat Cleveland and the jets lose to NE, we are OFFICIALLY in the playoffs.

Yep. Also the case if Pitt loses.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by DaFace

At this point, it's almost guaranteed (93% according to 538) that Houston will win that division at this point, so we can pencil them in as the #4.

Similarly, 538 says that the Steelers are far more likely than the Jets to make it at this point, so you can (more weakly) pencil the Steelers in as the #6.

So it's pretty much down to @Houston or vs. Pittsburgh (though I know I'm giving these odds a bit too much credit here).

I don't think there's really a scenerio where the chiefs host the steelers in the WC round

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by MahiMike

My hope is that Jax wins the division and the Chiefs play here 1st week!

Huh? How is that possible?

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by O.city

I don't think there's really a scenerio where the chiefs host the steelers in the WC round

The only ones I've seen with us playing Pitt at home is in the AFC championship game.