How BIG is the Oakland game?

[cdcox]

As most people have realized, a victory against Oakland is essential if Kansas City is going to entertain any hopes of winning the AFC West this season. If we win on Sunday, my computer gives us a 45% chance of winning the division. Furthermore, our overall odds of making the playoffs as either a division champ or wildcard, will go up to 80%. If we lose, the odds of us winning the division drop to about 3%. So essentially, KC will bow out of the playoff picture for the division crown with a loss in Sunday.

However, many people are selling short our chances of getting a wildcard position. Even with a loss to Oakland, we still will have about a 45% chance of making the playoffs as a wildcard team. That could happen in two ways. The hard way is to finish 10-6 and hope that Baltimore, Denver, Buffalo and Pittsburgh all finish below 10-6. We need this to happen because our tie breaker situation is terrible (worse than our unspecial teams, if you can believe that). (Or if you think one of the top 3 AFC east teams will collapse you can trade them out for one of the teams I listed). The odds on this happening are dropping every week and currently stand at only about 40%. The easier, and more likely way of making the playoffs is to finish 11-5 or better. If we do that, we won't have to worry about tie breakers, because there won't be six teams in the AFC with a record of 11 and 5 or better. Even with a loss to Oakland this week, it is very doable, given our remaining schedule.

At this moment, before knowing the outcome of the Oakland game, our division champ odds are 20% and our overall playoff odds are 55%.

The Oakland game is huge, but it doesn't quite mean the whole season, yet.<BR>

[AZChief]

I'm cleary not as number savy as you but this game is huge for a number of reasons. First, to stay within striking distance of the leader in our division. A key injury or two can really hurt any teams performance and Oakland is no different. While I would never cheer an injury, seeing Gannon in a sling on Sunday wouldn't upset me.

Second, we need to win to shut these Raida fans up. There is nothing in the world more obnoxious or annoying than a Raida fan with a winning team. A split would silence them a little bit and at least provide me with an easier "position" to defend.

The main reason it's crucial to win this Sunday is because it's the Raida's and whether we're 2-14 or 14-2 it's always a good year when you beat the Raidas!

AZ

[cdcox]

AZ- You are right, when it comes down to it, Raider games are always huge, just because it is the Raiders!

[Warrior5]

cdcox,
Great stat work, but all numbers aside, this game is the season. Many of us have said this about previous games, but that's because this is a progression thing.
A win on Sunday won't make the season (unless your satisfied that the Chiefs are merely in a "transformation" year), but will be a huge victory, even bigger than the win over the Rams.
A loss drops us 3 games behind the Raiders, giving the Chiefs a huge mountain to climb.
The Chiefs need the win Sunday for many obvious reasons. I am NOT looking past this game, but one not-so-obvious reason this is a must-win is that they will carry much-needed momentum into San Fran the following week. I know that's a non-conference game, but every game is a must win now, and I'm convinced the 49ers are VERY underrated. They are dangerous. Imagine bringing 3 straight red-pant wins back into Arrowhead on 19 Nov against the Bills!
UPSET THE RAIDERS!!<BR>

[Coogs]

cdcox,

Your numbers bear out exactaly what I posted yesterday as far as winning the West. If we don't win Sunday, we are in a world of hurt.

I guess I am greedy and want to go into the playoffs as a division winner and not a wild card. Even though the Titans proved you can get to the big dance from the wild card hole, that is a very tough route to the Super Bowl.

Interesting post cd!

[58Forever]

It's pretty simple...

Oakland wins and they win the division....barring a total collapse which I don't see this Oakland team doing...

If KC and Denver wins, then it's a three team race...

So, there is only one possible outcome for this game...KC wins....just my opinion... http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/biggrin.gif

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joe

"The word "genius" isn't applicable in football. A genius is a guy like Norman Einstein."
-Joe Theisman, NFL football quarterback and sports analyst

[cdcox]

Warrior5- You are right when you say that this game is much bigger than the Ram game. In-confernce games are always much more important that NFC games, an in-division games are gigantic. The SF games makes 3 straight trips to the West Coast. This stretch on the schedule is murder, even though 2 of the teams are supposed to be easy ones (no such thing).

Coogs - Yeah, the division crown is definitely the way to go. This season has a similar feel to last season, when our play off hopes went right down to the wire. Lets hope the Chiefs win a few in a row so the roller coaster ride slows down a bit.

58 - I don't see Oakland folding either; however, I really don't think Denver will be much of a factor, even if the beat the raiders like the dogs that they are. They are both weaker and less consistent than the Chiefs, and we are staying in the playoff race only by the skin of our teeth.

[ROYC75]

Big Game,Raiders ? You bet !

But IMHO, Not really any bigger than the last one,or the one b-4 it,playoff wise !

BUT THE RAIDERS ????

REVENGE will be sweet! http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/biggrin.gif

1 game at a time!

[This message has been edited by ROYC75 (edited 10-31-2000).]

[htismaqe]

This is a must win, that way my prediction can still hold true.

Chiefs win and start the Raiduhs on an eventual 1-7 slide. Raiduhs finish 8-8.

HEHE

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Parker
[b]ChiefsPlanet Administrator</B>

[CHIEF1]

We have to win this game period. A loss puts us three games back with eight to play and that is not a position we need to be in. This game will make a huge difference in how things end up because like last year, ending up with the same record and losing that head to head tiebreaker is a killer. We need to take it to these guys for 60 min. just like the rams game and if we do we will win and win huge.

[Herzig]

As everyone before me has stated, We NEED to win to have a chance of taking the division. I have been to four of the last six CHIEF-oak. games(Jan 2, 2000 and 96' game being the exceptions) and there were more raider fans at the last game than any of them. Funny how they support their team when they win(maybe they might actually sell out alameda this weekend).

They were d1cks after the game. We owe these turds some payback.

Go CHIEFS!

I love to hating oakland...

[This message has been edited by Greg Herzig (edited 10-31-2000).]

[Frazod]

We need this game BIGTIME. Winning and losing this game is the difference between a possible division crown and maybe crawling into the playoffs as a No. 5 or 6 wildcard. With a win we have Oakland by the balls in a division tie breaker, and the last truly brutal game of the season behind us. If we lose, kiss the division goodbye. I have way too much respect (albeit grudgingly) for Gruden to believe he'd allow the kind of collapse we'd need to catch them if we tank this game.

We need to PUNISH GANNON on Sunday. http://www.ChiefsPlanet.com/ubb/mad.gif I believe I've stated my opinion on this enough in other topics. We also need to let it all hang out on offense. Oakland quite simply cannot win a shootout with us if we are in Rams-game form. The fact that they couldn't even manage a touchdown against San Diego - a team we DESTROYED - makes me feel much better about our chances.

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Frazod

CRUSH YOUR ENEMIES, SEE THEM DRIVEN BEFORE YOU, AND HEAR THE LAMENTATIONS OF DENISE! DEATH TO OAKLAND!

[sun]

BIG

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did i mention id been drinkin???(at home...:))

[sun]

BIG

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did i mention id been drinkin???(at home...:))

[Luzap]

Losing this game would mean the end of civilization as we know it.

Luz
any other questions???...

[thehead]

This game is BIGGGGGG our whole season starts are stops here. We win we roll into the playoff's we lose we fight just to get a decent record.


GO CHIEFS


(Put EDWARDS on Gannon you know just so he does not run)

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