GRETZ: What To Expect From Bowe

[Hammock Parties]

http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2007/05/09/gretz_what_to_expect_from_bowe/

So what kind of production can we expect from Dwayne Bowe in his rookie season with the Chiefs?

Bowe and the Chiefs will write their own story in the 2007 season. But what the history of other first-round receivers shows us is that very few make a big splash in their rookie seasons. Very few.

Let’s start with the numbers. Here are the top 25 receivers in the National Football League from last season and what they did in their rookie year:

http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/2489/6846ab04825942fbb0fd008yz9.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Among the top 25 receivers of last season, only four went over 1,000 yards in their rookie season and only 10 went over 750 yards. More than half of the 25 receivers did not top 500 yards as rookies.

Here’s more. Since and including the 2002 Draft, there have been 19 wide receivers taken in the first round. Here’s what those receivers were able to do in their rookie seasons:

http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/6114/b1737b5bb4774be28b8e78bpb7.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Only one of those 19 receivers topped 1,000 yards as a rookie and only six topped 750 yards in that first season. On average, this group of first-round wide receivers averaged 37 catches for 540 yards and 3.5 touchdown catches for that first season.

Break those averages down to a per-game basis and the contribution is this: two catches for 34 yards and a touchdown catch every fifth game.

That’s hardly a major contribution to any offense. What are Bowe’s chances of breaking out of that first season malaise? Right now on paper, they don’t look good.

The Chiefs quarterback position is in flux. If inexperienced Brodie Croyle wins the starting job, that will effect the productivity of the passing game. The Chiefs offensive line is also in a state of flux, with possible problems for pass protection. No matter who is at QB or blocking, the first choice of this offense is going to be running the football with Larry Johnson. No matter the passer, the first choice as a receiver is not going to be Bowe. It’s tight end Tony Gonzalez. Then Eddie Kennison. Then, maybe Bowe.

Another factor is contract negotiations. First-round holdouts have become common these days; Bowe’s participation and production will be effected if he misses training camp time.

In his favor are these factors: the head coach wants his younger players on the field; there’s no entrenched player to block Bowe’s move into the starting lineup; Samie Parker does not have that strong of a hold on the job and because of his experiences at LSU, the NFL game is not going to overwhelm him.

It would be a shock if Bowe matched the numbers of another LSU rookie receiver Michael Clayton (80 catches for 1,193 yards.) It would also be a shock if he finished the year with the numbers of 2004 first-rounder Michael Jenkins in Atlanta (seven catches for 119 yards.)

So much of what will determine Bowe’s contribution is out of his hands, before the ball even gets in his hands. If he shows up for camp on time, if he puts in the work between now and the start of the season, if he stays away from injury, he can become a factor in the offense as a rookie.

[the Talking Can]

"37 catches for 540 yards and 3.5 touchdown catches for that first season"

I'll take it

[Easy 6]

I dont think anybody is looking for a 1000yds. from this guy in 07, his big contribution will be his excellent blocking & some Red Zone looks.

Anything outside of that is gravy.

[Micjones]

http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/6114/b1737b5bb4774be28b8e78bpb7.gif

Seven of these Wide Receivers made great contributions to their respective offense.

Using a 1,000-yard season as a benchmark for contributing in your first season is dumb.

Gretz is an idiot.

You wouldn't take a Larry Fitzgerald-esque year 1 from Dwayne Bowe?

780 yards...8 TD's?
Psshhht... Shut up Bob.

[Hammock Parties]

I think he could replicate what Fitzgerald did. Fitz had McCown throwing to him with Emmitt FREAKING Smith in the backfield.

[StcChief]

500 yds and coupe TDs.... blocking to create 1 or 2.
A real diversion to get Gonzo or EK , Hannon,Webb open,
I'll take it.

First priority. Replace Stone hands Parker.

[Micjones]

I agree...

I think he could very well have that kind of year 1 in this offense.

Hell Parker's pretending to be a #2 and he snagged 40 balls for 500+ last year. And he struggled to get open...

What could a truly talented Receiver with good hands do?

[ct]

...You wouldn't take a Larry Fitzgerald-esque year 1 from Dwayne Bowe?

780 yards...8 TD's?
...

Why yes, yes I would!!

[the Talking Can]

I'd hope for 40-50 catches, about 3 a game...the variable is YAC...if he can break some tackles that would really bring some excitement to our team...

[Buehler445]

I dont think anybody is looking for a 1000yds. from this guy in 07, his big contribution will be his excellent blocking & some Red Zone looks.

Anything outside of that is gravy.

I agree. I don't think anyone will complain if he gets 500 and blocks well. I would be disappointed though if he does not get to the field. Especially if Hannon or Webb start and are ineffective. Outside of Calvin Johnson and Jarrett, I think he was the most NFL ready WR in the draft.

[Easy 6]

I agree. I don't think anyone will complain if he gets 500 and blocks well. I would be disappointed though if he does not get to the field. Especially if Hannon or Webb start and are ineffective. Outside of Calvin Johnson and Jarrett, I think he was the most NFL ready WR in the draft.

He COULD really surprise, like Micjones said, if Parker can get 500+ imagine what a WR with good hands could have done.

[DMAC]

blocking to create 1 or 2.
No kidding, let's not forget the blocking by this guy to get LJ on the outside. Assuming that our OL can still be taught to run and block.

[Mr. Laz]

what does it say when the first thing we look for from a WR in our offense is the ability to block?

[Coach]

what does it say when the first thing we look for from a WR in our offense is the ability to block?

That sweeps, counters, and mis-direction plays should work, since none of our receivers could block worth a crap (Mostly on Parker and Dante Hall)

[Easy 6]

what does it say when the first thing we look for from a WR in our offense is the ability to block?

From a rookie, i think its a reasonable goal to expect that, but not necessarily expect him to set the world aflame with stats.

We all want him to develop into a stud #1, but just wait until this year when he throws a block on Dre Bly or Nhamdi Asamugah *sp that loosens their molars...you'll be outta your seat & screaming like the rest of us.

[Fish]

That sweeps, counters, and mis-direction plays should work, since none of our receivers could block worth a crap (Mostly on Parker and Dante Hall)

Some people will disagree, but I think Parker had the desire to block, he just didn't have the mass/strength to get it done. I saw him in good position many times, only to get tossed or bowled over.

[Hammock Parties]

what does it say when the first thing we look for from a WR in our offense is the ability to block?

What proof do you have that blocking ability is the first thing Herm looks for?

[Pitt Gorilla]

Honestly, Eck from Mizzou has all the tools to be pretty good as well. He's big, fast, and can catch.

[Coach]

Some people will disagree, but I think Parker had the desire to block, he just didn't have the mass/strength to get it done. I saw him in good position many times, only to get tossed or bowled over.

I'm sure people will disagree with me, and that's fine with me. I'm pretty sure Parker can block, it's just the mass/strength issue. That's one of the reasons why the Chiefs selected Bowe, is to block without getting tossed/bowled over.

[htismaqe]

Bowe can do what Sylvester Morris did...

[Coach]

Bowe can do what Sylvester Morris did...

Minus the injuries I hope.

[Easy 6]

Some people will disagree, but I think Parker had the desire to block, he just didn't have the mass/strength to get it done. I saw him in good position many times, only to get tossed or bowled over.

I agree, i forget who it was against, but the Planet rolled the clip of him demolishing a CB for weeks last year.

[suds79]

Yup this article doesn't tell us anything we didn't already know.

Rookie WRs typically don't do much.

I'm expecting around 500 yards from Bowe as I believe Brodie Croyle will get the starting job. In the end, I'm not that concerned about Bowe's numbers in year one.

You have to invest at some point in the WR and I'm glad we did.

[HemiEd]

Bowe can do what Sylvester Morris did...

It is very possible, but I sure hope not. He is pretty well built the same way IIRC.

[Eleazar]

Honestly, Eck from Mizzou has all the tools to be pretty good as well. He's big, fast, and can catch.

I thought about that too. He's probably got the same size and build as Bowe has, he's got good hands, etc. He would obviously be a project, but he might be someone who could develop.

I'm not going to turn into some irrational pimp because he's from Mizzou, like some of the scrubs we've seen get a lot of airplay around CP, I was just thinking.

[OctoberFart]

In Herms offense 35 catches 533 yards and 3 tds is very realistic.

[Tribal Warfare]

It is very possible, but I sure hope not. He is pretty well built the same way IIRC.


Sly wasn't as thick as Bowe

[RealSNR]

The average production from Gretz's list already matches Parker's production. And hopefully Bowe won't be a whiney bitch on the field.

I'll take that no questions asked.

[Direckshun]

I'm not expecting more from Bowe than what we got from Parker last year -- but with a more formidable field presense and fewer dropped balls.

Kennison seems ready to put this guy under his wing, and I'm thrilled for that, but Kennison's neither a Pro Bowler nor comparable to Bowe's skill set. I have been begging Carl Peterson on this message board for weeks to get Keyshawn Johnson for that reason alone, though it seems I've been spurned.

I do expect big things from Bowe. I know his chances of making a Pro Bowl over the next three years will be hurt by playing on a conservative coach's offense in a relatively small media market.

But he's going to be a difference maker just by bringing that presense of his onto the field. We're going to see highlights of his hits on LBs for years.

[Fishpicker]

35-40 catches seems reasonable to me. A few long bombs and a better-than-average YAC could put him close to 750 yards .

an injury to any one of our offensive skill position players will probably result with Bowe getting more catches. I wouldnt be surprised if Bowe finishes the season just under 1000 yards. (if something like that were to happen)

[BigVE]

Do you people realize how much "talent" it takes to write ALL OF THAT and do ALL of that research and yet tell us what we already new? "Wait and see...", just like EVERY OTHER guy who was drafted any time throughout NFL history. DUH!

[Anyong Bluth]

what does it say when the first thing we look for from a WR in our offense is the ability to block?


Yeah, so the guy is an above avg blocker, but I don't think that is what they saw on the tape that was why they keyed in on him. Personally, I am more impressed with his YAC ability, open field ability to make guys take bad angles, and his willingness to go where (i.e. over the middle) for the catch.

I don't think anyone is expecting him to come in go for double digit TD's and 1000+ yards. I'm still going to joy those moment when he shakes off a DB even if it only gets him 5-10 more yards. The guy may not be world class speed, but he's still plenty fast enough. He faced plenty of quality opponents in the SEC, and still had a number of rather large gains. I think his football speed is faster than his combine times dictate.


I'm not usually big on taking WR's with 1st rd picks, but based on the footage I've seen, I rather enjoy watching this guy take the same attitude of LJ and taking the punishment to the D instead of taking it.


Did love how Gretz planted the hold out seed... still marching like a good lil' solider.

[Logical]

I am guessing 40 for 550 yards

[Anyong Bluth]

I'm think he'll have above 600, but its just pure speculation. We have no idea who will be chucking it to him even, or how the O is going to go next year. If they can't run it with the same ease as the past, and its that bad, we may be be chucking it simply b/c of down and distance?

Who knows, I'm just wanting to see some youth and progress towards building a solid 52 man roster that's not part of DV's retirement cruise.

[Smed1065]

I guess he expects all WR's to have 1000 yard seasons?

This kills my by reporters, you draft a WR and no one expects 1000 yards the first year IMO.

That is like a defensive rookie coming on and having over 10 sacks or a QB having a TD to INT ratio of 5 to 1 as a rookie.

I know it is the off season but reporters kill me. They act like knowledgeable fans expect a first rounder to save a team in the first year?

Maybe your wine and cheese crowd.

[htismaqe]

Let's get something straight.

BOB GRETZ DOESN'T EXPECT BOWE TO GET 1000 YARDS.

This article is nothing more than a pre-emptive strike against the Keitzman's and Whitlock's of the world, who Gretz apparently thinks will bitch if Bowe doesn't get 1000 yards.

[htismaqe]

what does it say when the first thing we look for from a WR in our offense is the ability to block?

Yeah, I'm sure that's the first thing they looked at. :rolleyes:

[kstater]

In Herms offense 35 catches 533 yards and 3 tds is very realistic.


REP, I didn't know you could form coherent thoughts.

[chop]

T.O. only had one really good year in his first four years in the league. I don't expect alot from him this year but I do have hope he'll have a good year.

[HemiEd]

Sly wasn't as thick as Bowe

Makes sense for sure, wasn't he about 20 to 25 lbs. lighter, but the same height? Both big receivers though, I like big receivers and never understood why DV did not. Quickness?

[milkman]

Bowe can do what Sylvester Morris did...

I'd be fine with that, although I would hope his productivity would be spread out through the season, rather than a couple of big games, and little else.

[cdcox]

Here's another spin. Look at the top 25 producers that were also first round draft choices. Here is their average first year production:

Ave receptions 55
Ave yards 717
Ave tds 5

This is decent production for a rookie. I don't think anyone would complain about that at all. This kind of production isn't going to send anyone to Hawaii. It is a reasonalbe expectation. If Bowe falls signficantly below these numbers say less than 30 catches for less than 400 yards and less than 3 TDs, he is behind the development of other top recievers that entered the league as first round draft choices. That would be an early indication that he might be headed for bust city. Poor production in your rookie year as a first round draft choice isn't a death sentence, but it surely isn't a good thing.

I think we need to see some decent production from Bowe in his first year. It's about time we start raising expectations for young players. Some of our guys are going to have to decide they are men. The sooner the better.

[Mr. Laz]

Yeah, I'm sure that's the first thing they looked at. :rolleyes:
sure was the first thing they mentioned



IIRC correctly just about the first thing out of Herm's mouth after drafting Bowe was about what a great blocker he was.

[Hammock Parties]

sure was the first thing they mentioned

IIRC correctly just about the first thing out of Herm's mouth after drafting Bowe was about what a great blocker he was.

Which in no way proves anything.

[keg in kc]

I think we need to see some decent production from Bowe in his first year. It's about time we start raising expectations for young players. Some of our guys are going to have to decide they are men. The sooner the better.I think the one thing you have to keep in mind is that he (assumedly) will be playing with a first-year starting QB. That's not to say he can't still have a good season, but it's not like he's stepping into an unstoppable machine with Joe Montana at the helm, and he's just one of a plethora of weapons.

I don't remember my exact prediction, but I think it was something in the neighborhood of 47 catches for 600 yards and 3 TD. That would, in my opinion, be respectable for what he's stepping into.

[Smed1065]

I think it was a combo actually.

Bowe was the receiver that fit their scheme with size, decent speed and blocking which was a big part that separated him from the other WR picks available.

[cdcox]

I think the one thing you have to keep in mind is that he (assumedly) will be playing with a first-year starting QB. That's not to say he can't still have a good season, but it's not like he's stepping into an unstoppable machine with Joe Montana at the helm, and he's just one of a plethora of weapons.

That first year QB is another guy that needs to be under some serious expectations. If Croyle bombs, it will set back the development of Bowe. If Bowe bombs, it sets back the development of Croyle. The way I see it, it is an all or nothing package. I have a hard time seeing one of these players waltzing into Canton, while the other one washes out the league. It is pretty typical for a star WR and star QB to have very similar career arcs. It's all or nothing.

[keg in kc]

It's all or nothing.Not in their first season, it's not. If you're expecting pro bowl play, odds are you're going to be disappointed.

It's fine having expectations. The trick is making them realistic.

[Mr. Flopnuts]

Not in their first season, it's not. If you're expecting pro bowl play, odds are you're going to be disappointed.

It's fine having expectations. The trick is making them realistic.

65 rec 750 yds 8 TD's. That actually seems pretty lofty for a rook, but I'm hoping.

[keg in kc]

65 rec 750 yds 8 TD's. That actually seems pretty lofty for a rook, but I'm hoping.Kennison only had 53 receptions last year, and Parker 41. So based on last year, that would be a great rookie season for Bowe. Again, though, I'm not sure I'd expect that. That would be in the same ballpark as Kennison's 2004 and 2005 production, short only in terms of his ypc...

[cdcox]

Not in their first season, it's not. If you're expecting pro bowl play, odds are you're going to be disappointed.

It's fine having expectations. The trick is making them realistic.

I'm not talking about probowl. A probowl for either player is not even on my dream list.

But if one of them is disasterous in their first year, it is unlikely that the other other one is going to look particularly good either. If both look bad, in their first year seeing significant playing time, the odds of both of them pulling out of the tailspin are very, very small.

Bowe:

40+ receptions
500+ yards
3+ TDs

Croyle:

Don't get injured and give us some idea that you have potential to develop into a franchise qb. Show us something to talk about next off season. That's all.

[Mr. Laz]

Which in no way proves anything.
oh i think it SHOWS alot


it shows where Herm's head is at when it comes to offense.



kinda reminds me of Marty when he basically had the attitude of 'you don't need good wide receivers ... you don't need a good Quarterback.'

all you need is a good offensive line and RB

[cdcox]

Kennison only had 53 receptions last year, and Parker 41. So based on last year, that would be a great rookie season for Bowe. Again, though, I'm not sure I'd expect that. That would be in the same ballpark as Kennison's 2004 and 2005 production, short only in terms of his ypc...

For Bowe I think he should be able to replace Parker his first year out of the box. WR develop their first few years. If he could match or slightly exceed Parker's 2006 production, that shows promise of a base to build upon. That's not unreasonable.

[keg in kc]

Well, when you said "serious expectations" I thought you were saying something along the lines of 3500 yards and 20 TD/10 INT out of Croyle...

[keg in kc]

For Bowe I think he should be able to replace Parker his first year out of the box. WR develop their first few years. If he could match or slightly exceed Parker's 2006 production, that shows promise of a base to build upon. That's not unreasonable.Well, that would be 41 for 561 (13.7) and 1 TD.

I'd be thrilled with that ypc out of a rook, although 1 TD wouldn't bode well for our scoring.

[cdcox]

Well, when you said "serious expectations" I thought you were saying something along the lines of 3500 yards and 20 TD/10 INT out of Croyle...

IMO, 2007 and 2008 are about building the core of the team. I think we could even get worse in 2008 than we are in 2007, due to age and the JA andLJ situations. I'm okay with that as long as we are building the core for a multi year run beginning, hopefuly, in 2009.

[keg in kc]

I think we have enough talent in 2007 to compete for a playoff spot, depending on how unknowns (like Croyle) perform.

I think we should expect to contend for the division in 2008.

My prediction for 2007: Jared Allen will no longer be the best player on our defense. (which, of course, wasn't saying a whole lot to begin with)

[cdcox]

I think we have enough talent in 2007 to compete for a playoff spot, depending on how unknowns (like Croyle) perform.

I think we should expect to contend for the division in 2008.

My prediction for 2007: Jared Allen will no longer be the best player on our defense. (which, of course, wasn't saying a whole lot to begin with)

If Croyle has a very solid first year, yeah we could compete for a playoff spot.

WRT Allen not being our top defender, I hope you are talking about a player ascending as opposed to Allen regressing? I could see Johnson and Hali as potential breakout players. If Page blew up, he could be an outside contender, but unlikely during his first full year as a starter.

[keg in kc]

WRT Allen not being our top defender, I hope you are talking about a player ascending as opposed to Allen regressing?I am. And I'm not even referring to JA's suspension as part of the reasoning.

JA may be the 3rd or 4th best player on the D by the season's end.

I think this is the first year we'll see anything even approaching 'superstar' out of Derrick Johnson.

[Tribal Warfare]

Makes sense for sure, wasn't he about 20 to 25 lbs. lighter, but the same height? Both big receivers though, I like big receivers and never understood why DV did not. Quickness?


Yah he was a "buildup" speed guy, and wasn't explosive when making his breaks

[Ebolapox]

T.O. only had one really good year in his first four years in the league. I don't expect alot from him this year but I do have hope he'll have a good year.

TO was also a project buried at third receiver behind such notables as an (aging) jerry rice and JJ stokes (picked in the same draft as TO IIRC, but tenth overall)

[Smed1065]

For Bowe I think he should be able to replace Parker his first year out of the box. WR develop their first few years. If he could match or slightly exceed Parker's 2006 production, that shows promise of a base to build upon. That's not unreasonable.

I'll take it and be happy.

[htismaqe]

sure was the first thing they mentioned

IIRC correctly just about the first thing out of Herm's mouth after drafting Bowe was about what a great blocker he was.

Actually, it was the THIRD thing Herm mentioned, and neither Carl nor Kuharich mentioned it at all.

CARL PETERSON: ”(Dwayne) is a big, strong physical wide receiver. This is a player who we have researched as thoroughly as we possibly could. Certainly there was a consensus that he can help this football and help it very, very quickly.”

HERM EDWARDS: “He fits the mold of what we want in a football player: he’s a tough, physical wide receiver. Big, strong, good in the blocking game, can catch the ball when he’s covered. He has a big body and can run. He brings energy; he brings a lot of energy when you watch him play. You need that.

“He’s a guy that can make a lot of plays: he can go over defenders and make the tough catch, or go inside. All those things kind of contribute when I look at a wide receiver. You want a guy who’s willing to block in the run game, will go across the middle and take the big hits and break tackles. That’s what this guy can do.”

BILL KUHARICH: “The one thing that impressed me when I watched this guy was his yards after catch. I mean, he’s a big, strong physical guy who breaks tackles and that’s what really is impressive. You’ve got a big receiver in the Red Zone and, as Herm said, you’ve got a guy who breaks tackles on crossing routes. He’s a very accomplished route runner, one of the better route runners in this draft. There’s not much not to like. He brings an up-tempo energy and he’s a tough guy.”

http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2007/04/28/petersonedwardskuharich_on_dwayne_bowe/

[the Talking Can]

Actually, it was the THIRD thing Herm mentioned, and neither Carl nor Kuharich mentioned it at all.

CARL PETERSON: ”(Dwayne) is a big, strong physical wide receiver. This is a player who we have researched as thoroughly as we possibly could. Certainly there was a consensus that he can help this football and help it very, very quickly.”

HERM EDWARDS: “He fits the mold of what we want in a football player: he’s a tough, physical wide receiver. Big, strong, good in the blocking game, can catch the ball when he’s covered. He has a big body and can run. He brings energy; he brings a lot of energy when you watch him play. You need that.

“He’s a guy that can make a lot of plays: he can go over defenders and make the tough catch, or go inside. All those things kind of contribute when I look at a wide receiver. You want a guy who’s willing to block in the run game, will go across the middle and take the big hits and break tackles. That’s what this guy can do.”

BILL KUHARICH: “The one thing that impressed me when I watched this guy was his yards after catch. I mean, he’s a big, strong physical guy who breaks tackles and that’s what really is impressive. You’ve got a big receiver in the Red Zone and, as Herm said, you’ve got a guy who breaks tackles on crossing routes. He’s a very accomplished route runner, one of the better route runners in this draft. There’s not much not to like. He brings an up-tempo energy and he’s a tough guy.”

http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2007/04/28/petersonedwardskuharich_on_dwayne_bowe/


they mention "breaking tackles" and YAC more then blocking....me likey

[keg in kc]

He was drafted because they think he's a complete reciever, not because they think he's a third TE to use. He does everything welll.

But alas, the poor fella only has 4.4 speed.

I don't know how he'll ever survive as an NFL receiver.

[the Talking Can]

He was drafted because they think he's a complete reciever, not because they think he's a third TE to use. He does everything welll.

But alas, the poor fella only has 4.4 speed.

I don't know how he'll ever survive as an NFL receiver.

but can he seperate?

it's much harder to get off the line as a Tackle...

[KC Kings]

http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/6114/b1737b5bb4774be28b8e78bpb7.gif

Seven of these Wide Receivers made great contributions to their respective offense.

Using a 1,000-yard season as a benchmark for contributing in your first season is dumb.

Gretz is an idiot.

You wouldn't take a Larry Fitzgerald-esque year 1 from Dwayne Bowe?

780 yards...8 TD's?
Psshhht... Shut up Bob.

Exactly. Look at that chart and compare their 1st years to the production we got last year out of our 3rd year starting WR Samie Parker. Only ONE of them got fewer touchdowns that Parker did, and only 6 of the 11 that played 15 games or more got fewer yards than Parker. If there was a column for missed blocks or dropped catches that would of otherwise earned a first down things could look even worse.