GRETZ: What To Expect From Bowe

Hammock Parties · 05-09-2007, 10:53 AM

http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2007/05...ect_from_bowe/

So what kind of production can we expect from Dwayne Bowe in his rookie season with the Chiefs?

Bowe and the Chiefs will write their own story in the 2007 season. But what the history of other first-round receivers shows us is that very few make a big splash in their rookie seasons. Very few.

Let’s start with the numbers. Here are the top 25 receivers in the National Football League from last season and what they did in their rookie year:

Among the top 25 receivers of last season, only four went over 1,000 yards in their rookie season and only 10 went over 750 yards. More than half of the 25 receivers did not top 500 yards as rookies.

Here’s more. Since and including the 2002 Draft, there have been 19 wide receivers taken in the first round. Here’s what those receivers were able to do in their rookie seasons:

Only one of those 19 receivers topped 1,000 yards as a rookie and only six topped 750 yards in that first season. On average, this group of first-round wide receivers averaged 37 catches for 540 yards and 3.5 touchdown catches for that first season.

Break those averages down to a per-game basis and the contribution is this: two catches for 34 yards and a touchdown catch every fifth game.

That’s hardly a major contribution to any offense. What are Bowe’s chances of breaking out of that first season malaise? Right now on paper, they don’t look good.

The Chiefs quarterback position is in flux. If inexperienced Brodie Croyle wins the starting job, that will effect the productivity of the passing game. The Chiefs offensive line is also in a state of flux, with possible problems for pass protection. No matter who is at QB or blocking, the first choice of this offense is going to be running the football with Larry Johnson. No matter the passer, the first choice as a receiver is not going to be Bowe. It’s tight end Tony Gonzalez. Then Eddie Kennison. Then, maybe Bowe.

Another factor is contract negotiations. First-round holdouts have become common these days; Bowe’s participation and production will be effected if he misses training camp time.

In his favor are these factors: the head coach wants his younger players on the field; there’s no entrenched player to block Bowe’s move into the starting lineup; Samie Parker does not have that strong of a hold on the job and because of his experiences at LSU, the NFL game is not going to overwhelm him.

It would be a shock if Bowe matched the numbers of another LSU rookie receiver Michael Clayton (80 catches for 1,193 yards.) It would also be a shock if he finished the year with the numbers of 2004 first-rounder Michael Jenkins in Atlanta (seven catches for 119 yards.)

So much of what will determine Bowe’s contribution is out of his hands, before the ball even gets in his hands. If he shows up for camp on time, if he puts in the work between now and the start of the season, if he stays away from injury, he can become a factor in the offense as a rookie.

**the Talking Can** · 05-09-2007, 10:59 AM

"37 catches for 540 yards and 3.5 touchdown catches for that first season"

I'll take it

**Easy 6** · 05-09-2007, 11:00 AM

I dont think anybody is looking for a 1000yds. from this guy in 07, his big contribution will be his excellent blocking & some Red Zone looks.

Anything outside of that is gravy.

Micjones · 05-09-2007, 11:00 AM

Seven of these Wide Receivers made great contributions to their respective offense.

Using a 1,000-yard season as a benchmark for contributing in your first season is dumb.

Gretz is an idiot.

You wouldn't take a Larry Fitzgerald-esque year 1 from Dwayne Bowe?

780 yards...8 TD's?
Psshhht... Shut up Bob.

Hammock Parties · 05-09-2007, 11:02 AM

I think he could replicate what Fitzgerald did. Fitz had McCown throwing to him with Emmitt FREAKING Smith in the backfield.

StcChief · 05-09-2007, 11:04 AM

500 yds and coupe TDs.... blocking to create 1 or 2.
A real diversion to get Gonzo or EK , Hannon,Webb open,
I'll take it.

First priority. Replace Stone hands Parker.

Micjones · 05-09-2007, 11:07 AM

I agree...

I think he could very well have that kind of year 1 in this offense.

Hell Parker's pretending to be a #2 and he snagged 40 balls for 500+ last year. And he struggled to get open...

What could a truly talented Receiver with good hands do?

ct · 05-09-2007, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Micjones

...You wouldn't take a Larry Fitzgerald-esque year 1 from Dwayne Bowe?

780 yards...8 TD's?
...

Why yes, yes I would!!

**the Talking Can** · 05-09-2007, 11:12 AM

I'd hope for 40-50 catches, about 3 a game...the variable is YAC...if he can break some tackles that would really bring some excitement to our team...

**Buehler445** · 05-09-2007, 03:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scott free

I dont think anybody is looking for a 1000yds. from this guy in 07, his big contribution will be his excellent blocking & some Red Zone looks.

Anything outside of that is gravy.

I agree. I don't think anyone will complain if he gets 500 and blocks well. I would be disappointed though if he does not get to the field. Especially if Hannon or Webb start and are ineffective. Outside of Calvin Johnson and Jarrett, I think he was the most NFL ready WR in the draft.

**Easy 6** · 05-09-2007, 03:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buehler445

I agree. I don't think anyone will complain if he gets 500 and blocks well. I would be disappointed though if he does not get to the field. Especially if Hannon or Webb start and are ineffective. Outside of Calvin Johnson and Jarrett, I think he was the most NFL ready WR in the draft.

He COULD really surprise, like Micjones said, if Parker can get 500+ imagine what a WR with good hands could have done.

DMAC · 05-09-2007, 03:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by StcChief

blocking to create 1 or 2.

No kidding, let's not forget the blocking by this guy to get LJ on the outside. Assuming that our OL can still be taught to run and block.

Mr. Laz · 05-09-2007, 03:46 PM

what does it say when the first thing we look for from a WR in our offense is the ability to block?

Coach · 05-09-2007, 03:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laz

what does it say when the first thing we look for from a WR in our offense is the ability to block?

That sweeps, counters, and mis-direction plays should work, since none of our receivers could block worth a crap (Mostly on Parker and Dante Hall)

**Easy 6** · 05-09-2007, 03:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Laz

what does it say when the first thing we look for from a WR in our offense is the ability to block?

From a rookie, i think its a reasonable goal to expect that, but not necessarily expect him to set the world aflame with stats.

We all want him to develop into a stud #1, but just wait until this year when he throws a block on Dre Bly or Nhamdi Asamugah *sp that loosens their molars...you'll be outta your seat & screaming like the rest of us.

05-09-2007, 10:53 AM
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $4620478	GRETZ: What To Expect From Bowe http://www.kcchiefs.com/news/2007/05...ect_from_bowe/ So what kind of production can we expect from Dwayne Bowe in his rookie season with the Chiefs? Bowe and the Chiefs will write their own story in the 2007 season. But what the history of other first-round receivers shows us is that very few make a big splash in their rookie seasons. Very few. Let’s start with the numbers. Here are the top 25 receivers in the National Football League from last season and what they did in their rookie year: Among the top 25 receivers of last season, only four went over 1,000 yards in their rookie season and only 10 went over 750 yards. More than half of the 25 receivers did not top 500 yards as rookies. Here’s more. Since and including the 2002 Draft, there have been 19 wide receivers taken in the first round. Here’s what those receivers were able to do in their rookie seasons: Only one of those 19 receivers topped 1,000 yards as a rookie and only six topped 750 yards in that first season. On average, this group of first-round wide receivers averaged 37 catches for 540 yards and 3.5 touchdown catches for that first season. Break those averages down to a per-game basis and the contribution is this: two catches for 34 yards and a touchdown catch every fifth game. That’s hardly a major contribution to any offense. What are Bowe’s chances of breaking out of that first season malaise? Right now on paper, they don’t look good. The Chiefs quarterback position is in flux. If inexperienced Brodie Croyle wins the starting job, that will effect the productivity of the passing game. The Chiefs offensive line is also in a state of flux, with possible problems for pass protection. No matter who is at QB or blocking, the first choice of this offense is going to be running the football with Larry Johnson. No matter the passer, the first choice as a receiver is not going to be Bowe. It’s tight end Tony Gonzalez. Then Eddie Kennison. Then, maybe Bowe. Another factor is contract negotiations. First-round holdouts have become common these days; Bowe’s participation and production will be effected if he misses training camp time. In his favor are these factors: the head coach wants his younger players on the field; there’s no entrenched player to block Bowe’s move into the starting lineup; Samie Parker does not have that strong of a hold on the job and because of his experiences at LSU, the NFL game is not going to overwhelm him. It would be a shock if Bowe matched the numbers of another LSU rookie receiver Michael Clayton (80 catches for 1,193 yards.) It would also be a shock if he finished the year with the numbers of 2004 first-rounder Michael Jenkins in Atlanta (seven catches for 119 yards.) So much of what will determine Bowe’s contribution is out of his hands, before the ball even gets in his hands. If he shows up for camp on time, if he puts in the work between now and the start of the season, if he stays away from injury, he can become a factor in the offense as a rookie.
Posts: 278,164

05-09-2007, 10:59 AM	#2
the Talking Can Supporter Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: street Casino cash: $10022208	"37 catches for 540 yards and 3.5 touchdown catches for that first season" I'll take it __________________ Clark Hunt: "Thank god for the Dominican pool boy"
Posts: 51,585

05-09-2007, 11:00 AM	#3
Easy 6 pie is never free Join Date: Sep 2006 Location: the drivers seat Casino cash: $3637775	I dont think anybody is looking for a 1000yds. from this guy in 07, his big contribution will be his excellent blocking & some Red Zone looks. Anything outside of that is gravy.
Posts: 91,770

05-09-2007, 11:00 AM	#4
Micjones Whose house? Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: KCMO Casino cash: $10005180	Seven of these Wide Receivers made great contributions to their respective offense. Using a 1,000-yard season as a benchmark for contributing in your first season is dumb. Gretz is an idiot. You wouldn't take a Larry Fitzgerald-esque year 1 from Dwayne Bowe? 780 yards...8 TD's? Psshhht... Shut up Bob.
Posts: 15,344

05-09-2007, 11:02 AM	#5
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $4620478	I think he could replicate what Fitzgerald did. Fitz had McCown throwing to him with Emmitt FREAKING Smith in the backfield. __________________ Chiefs game films
Posts: 278,164

05-09-2007, 11:04 AM	#6
StcChief Playing for #1 Draft Pick Join Date: Oct 2003 Location: Just West of Lambs land Casino cash: $10004900	500 yds and coupe TDs.... blocking to create 1 or 2. A real diversion to get Gonzo or EK , Hannon,Webb open, I'll take it. First priority. Replace Stone hands Parker.
Posts: 25,901

05-09-2007, 11:07 AM	#7
Micjones Whose house? Join Date: Mar 2007 Location: KCMO Casino cash: $10005180	I agree... I think he could very well have that kind of year 1 in this offense. Hell Parker's pretending to be a #2 and he snagged 40 balls for 500+ last year. And he struggled to get open... What could a truly talented Receiver with good hands do?
Posts: 15,344

05-09-2007, 11:12 AM	#9
the Talking Can Supporter Join Date: Aug 2001 Location: street Casino cash: $10022208	I'd hope for 40-50 catches, about 3 a game...the variable is YAC...if he can break some tackles that would really bring some excitement to our team... __________________ Clark Hunt: "Thank god for the Dominican pool boy"
Posts: 51,585

05-09-2007, 03:46 PM	#13
Mr. Laz Don't Tease Me Join Date: Dec 2000 Location: KS Casino cash: $11047037	what does it say when the first thing we look for from a WR in our offense is the ability to block? __________________
Posts: 95,626