Was Pioli inept in the 2006-2008 drafts?

[Deberg_1990]

http://uponfurtherreview.kansascity.com/?q=node/3539




I’ve given a little bit of attention to Pioi’s drafts each season he’s been at Kansas City, but I haven’t done anything even remotely comprehensive for his career since shortly after he was hired. At the time, I did a two-parter (Part I and Part II) in which I completely discounted his magic in New England – that apart from a fluke pick in the sixth round (Brady), Pioli’s picks were no better than Peterson’s picks had been over all the same years Pioli was involved in the process. And, I had so much fun with that picture, I couldn't resist using it again, although this time... I'm taking the other side.

One quick point on Brady. As I stated in the two-parter, if Pioli was so brilliant as to draft Brady in the sixth round, then I presume he was on dumb pills for the first five rounds.

-------------------------

I heard something yesterday that was designed to make Pioli look extremely bad. Maybe he is and maybe he isn’t, but the stat was grossly misleading. And, homey can’t allow that!

The comments I heard yesterday regarding Pioli were that in the three drafts in which he participated prior to Kansas City (2006, 2007 and 2008) that there were only three players left on NE’s roster… and that shocking statistic was supposed to mean he had been horrible at his job – at least for those three years.

I maintain that he was average at his job prior to KC with one freak exception (Brady). But, to say (or imply) that he was horrible (as the three-year, three-player-on-the-roster stat seems to do) is just a wretched case of abusing a statistic.

The indictment went on to emphasize that not one player from the 2007 class at New England was still on the roster. Now, I heard this on local radio, but it was citing a story done by someone in Boston. I don’t care who it was, I’m going to set the record straight.

2007

Let’s begin with 2007. It is a fact that none of New England’s draft picks are on New England’s roster at this minute. If you want to twist an argument to be that simplistic, then quit reading now. On the other hand, I’m of the opinion that the vast majority of UFR readers would want to know that New England had one first round draft pick (#24). But, guess what? They didn’t have a second round pick. And, they didn’t even have a third round pick.

Now, let’s look at the first round pick. It was Brandon Meriweather. I decided to show the rest of the first round picks behind him and an equal number in front of him. Shown are the games played in the NFL and the number of pro bowls.

Pick
Player
ProBowls
Games.Played

#16
Justin Harrell
0
13

#17
Jarvis Moss
0
41

#18
Leon Hall
0
66

#19
Michael Griffen
1
66

#20
Aaron Ross
0
59

#21
Reggie Nelson
0
63

#22
Brady Quinn
0
14

#23
Dwayne Bowe
1
61

#24
Brandon.Meriweather
2
66

#25
Jon Beason
3
65

#26
Anthony Spencer
0
62

#27
Robert Meachem
0
48

#28
Joe Staley
0
52

#29
Ben Grubbs
0
65

#30
Craig Davis
0
26

#31
Greg Olsen
0
64

#32
Anthony Gonzalez
0
32


-

The bottom line is that Meriweather has not missed a single NFL game so far. Only Hall and Griffen can also say that. In addition, he went to the Pro Bowl twice. Only Beason went more often and only two others went once. Meriweather is no longer with New England even though he was a Pro Bowler the last two years. The reason is because they wanted to trade him, couldn’t and didn’t feel they needed him and didn’t want to pay big bucks on his next contract.

So, NE got four years from him, two of which were Pro Bowl seasons. Obviously, that’s considerably better than average.

The Pats fourth and fifth-round picks failed to make a dent in the NFL, but that’s not exactly uncommon for fourth or fifth-rounders.

In the sixth round, they had three picks that made it in the NFL. One played 32 games, another 22 and yet another 21, who is still in the NFL. In fact, he started against Kansas City (Detroit) last weekend. If you examine sixth round picks, you will see that this is roughly average.

THE MOST IMPORTANT POINT: When I was listening to this debate, the thing that struck me most was not that New England drafts near the bottom of each round or that they may have traded away picks ahead of time. The thing that I thought of was that New England is STACKED. It’s one thing for Kansas City draft picks to play and start in the NFL for KC, but it’s another entirely for them to get a place on the roster of a team the quality of New England. In fact, it’s not unreasonable to assume picks are specifically high risk knowing that the only way they will be of value is if they are far better than everyone thinks. So, if you are already loaded, you roll the dice. Why not?

Nevertheless, despite what I have written to this point, Pioli was being crucified for his 2007 picks – and I would argue that considering they did not have a 2nd or 3rd round pick, they did as well as could reasonably be expected.



2006 and 2008

In 2008, the Patriots selected Jerod Mayo in the first round. He was a Pro-Bowler last year for New England. They also still have Matt Slater from the fifth round. Jonathan Wilhite was a fourth round pick who played 39 games before an injury late last season. Could it be better. Maybe. But, at the same time, when you wheel and deal as much as New England and the team is as good as it is, adding anyone from a given draft – especially a Pro Bowler is a positive.

The 2006 draft was six seasons ago. Their first pick was Laurence Maroney. He’s a running back and we all know the shelf life of the average RB in the NFL. He played into last season, but is now out of the league. I can’t say a whole lot for their second round pick. Their third rounder is still in the NFL, just not with NE. Their fourth-rounder is a Pro Bowler (Gotkowski). He is still a Patriot. The fifth-round pick (O’Callaghan) started 12 games for the Chiefs in 2009, but is out of the league after last season. One of their sixth-rounders is still in the NFL. Another played 45 games and is out as of last year.

The bottom line here is that the implication is that Pioli and NE had picks in every round and that they were all busts except for three players who are still with the team. No consideration for missing picks because of trades or the fact that they draft near the bottom of the round. And nary a mention of the fact that they have much fewer holes to fill and consequently, the odds of a player drafted by NE and making it on NE are remote.

I’m not saying I’m a huge Pioli fan. I’m ambivalent at this point, but I generally like his drafts at Kansas City so far. What I am saying is that the attack on him I heard based upon a simple statistic (three players from the 2006-2008 draft are still on the team and none from 2007) is absurd.

What really makes it even more absurd is the fact that New England has been great for a decade now and the only reason is because of the good decisions made by management, of which Pioli was a major part.

I’m all for tar and feathering someone if they deserve it, but going back and rewriting history in order to prove a present-day problem is hardly worthy of serious debate.

[FRCDFED]

All good points!

[ShowtimeSBMVP]

Nick wright did a whole hour on this last week.

[Brock]

Yes, quite so. Several people pointed out that the Patriots drafts weren't really very good overall, even before Pioli was hired.

[ModSocks]

Yes, quite so. Several people pointed out that the Patriots drafts weren't really very good overall, even before Pioli was hired.

This. There were many discussions about this topic around the time Peterson was fired.

[Amnorix]

2006-08 were bad drafts overall. There is a big asterisk next to 2007, however, as the Patriots traded a number of high picks to get Welker and Moss. We also traded a pick to get a LB which didn't work out well, and rolled the #28 pick in the '08 draft over to the Niners for their #1 in '08, which turned out to be Jerod Mayo, the only stud we took over those three years.

The drafts from 2000-2005, however, were mostly good (2000 was terrible other than the Brady pick, actually), and from 2009 on have been good as well, mostly.

But yes, three bad drafts in a row. Would've killed most teams...

[Bane]

Lol.

[Amnorix]

Would say that BB/SP were above average in the draft overall because they are good at recognizing the value of picks and making moves to get more of them, which means that even with the same strikeout percentage as everyone else, they will get more hits becaues they have more at-bats, if you know what I mean.

But you can't say their drafts "weren't really good overall." Brady, Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Branch, Mayo, Mankins, Asante Samuel and Matt Light all turned out to be above-average to GREAT. A bunch more were at least good.

You can't have sustained success with consistently mediocre drafts.

[Dave Lane]

This is not going to go over well. Common sense has no place on this board...

[Pants]

You can't have sustained success with consistently mediocre drafts.

You can if you have Brady.

[Amnorix]

You can if you have Brady.

Bad drafts were 2006-2008. Cassel was our starter and went 11-5 in 2008... :p

[Pants]

Bad drafts were 2006-2008. Cassel was our starter and went 11-5 in 2008... :p

touche

[lcarus]

For the Patriots it doesn't really matter. They'd be dog shit without Brady.

[Okie_Apparition]

He had controll in NE like he has in KC?

[lcarus]

He had controll in NE like he has in KC?

I heard Billy had the final say on things. It's becoming apparent why.

[Okie_Apparition]

I don't see how you compare situations that have such a huge variable as final say

[NJChiefsFan]

I heard Billy had the final say on things. It's becoming apparent why.

The problem is that you can't say Pioli didn't do a good job and also say he didn't have control. If BB made final say on these picks then its on both of them, if not more on BB.

[Amnorix]

The problem is that you can't say Pioli didn't do a good job and also say he didn't have control. If BB made final say on these picks then its on both of them, if not more on BB.


Just for the record, FWIW, both BB and SP have consistently said that they both had final say. Specifically during the draft if EITHER BB or SP felt uncomfortable taking someone, they wouldn't take him. They also developed the draft board together, etc. etc.

Again, for whatever it's worth.

[BossChief]

His 2010 and 2011 drafts kick the shit out of any of those drafts, I would have to think that means one of these things:

1) Scott Pioli was the brains behind most of their successful drafts.

2) Todd Haleys backround with his father in pro personnel has helped us the last two drafts focus on quality players.

To me, #2 makes more sense because in 2009, his team was coming off the superbowl and he was a late hire. That means he would have far less impact into that draft/scouting players and that's the only one we bombed since SP and TH took over.

People forget that aspect in Haley in that he is the son of Dick Haley who built the Steelers superbowl dynasty back in the day and Haley grew up around all of it and knows the deal.

[Titty Meat]

His 2010 and 2011 drafts kick the shit out of any of those drafts, I would have to think that means one of these things:

1) Scott Pioli was the brains behind most of their successful drafts.

2) Todd Haleys backround with his father in pro personnel has helped us the last two drafts focus on quality players.

To me, #2 makes more sense because in 2009, his team was coming off the superbowl and he was a late hire. That means he would have far less impact into that draft/scouting players and that's the only one we bombed since SP and TH took over.

People forget that aspect in Haley in that he is the son of Dick Haley who built the Steelers superbowl dynasty back in the day and Haley grew up around all of it and knows the deal.

Those drafts have been so great we've stayed within 5 touchdowns the first 2 games of the season.

[BossChief]

Those drafts have been so great we've stayed within 5 touchdowns the first 2 games of the season.

haha

Do you think we would be playing better with Berry and Moeaki?

McCluster is averaging 7.8 yards per rush this year as a running back and with Charles on IR, the pick may look pretty fucking good by years end if he can stay healthy and learn to hold onto the ball before he hits the ground a lot better. At this point, you can probably call him part of the problem, though.

Arenas has not been a part of the problem. We never talk about him getting beat and in todays passing league, he has been a major contributor. Not many of the players taken after him in the second round are very good. Absolutely NOT part of the problem.

Asamaoh just got done having a damn good game against the best DL in football. NOT part of the problem.

Sheffield looks about as good as a player can after missing a year to IR for a neck injury. NOT part of the problem.

Lewis has taken a step back, but as a 5th rounder, how much do you reall expect from the guy? Part of the problem.

The ONLY guys out of that list that are playing but are a reason we are getting beat are Lewis and Maybe Dexter. Pure and simple. The rest of those picks are solid and both of those players have lots of chances to step their game up and be part of the solution by years end.

As far as the 2011 draft goes, if you expect them to come right out of the gates and be major contributors with no offseason, you are fooling yourself.

By years end, I bet MOST of them are playing major roles for this club and are making a big difference (hopefully, not too much of a difference because that may take us out of the Luck talk)

Baldwin, Houston, Hudson, Stanzi and Powe should all be playing MAJOR roles that help this team by years end.

I bet Haley had a lot more input into making all of these picks than most here realize.

Both drafts were outstanding IMO and are in the conversation as the best drafts we have had in some time...especially if you figure losing Jared Allen into the 2008 draft.

[Amnorix]

His 2010 and 2011 drafts kick the shit out of any of those drafts, I would have to think that means one of these things:



Just FTR, Belichick has drafted McCourty, Gronk, Hernandez, Patrick Chung, SeaBass, Edelman, and Solder in 09-11, which also kicks the shit out of any of those drafts and are post-Pioli.

[BossChief]

Just FTR, Belichick has drafted McCourty, Gronk, Hernandez, Patrick Chung, SeaBass, Edelman, and Solder in 09-11, which also kicks the shit out of any of those drafts and are post-Pioli.

wow

8 players out of 3 drafts in which they had like 100 picks in each draft.


Impressive.

[Amnorix]

wow

8 players out of 3 drafts in which they had like 100 picks in each draft.


Impressive.


Those are the very good players out of those drafts, some of whom have already made pro bowl. We have others on the team, some of whom are promising but need time to develop.

And seriously, you are REALLY in no position to criticize...

[Titty Meat]

haha

Do you think we would be playing better with Berry and Moeaki?

McCluster is averaging 7.8 yards per rush this year as a running back and with Charles on IR, the pick may look pretty ****ing good by years end if he can stay healthy and learn to hold onto the ball before he hits the ground a lot better. At this point, you can probably call him part of the problem, though.

Arenas has not been a part of the problem. We never talk about him getting beat and in todays passing league, he has been a major contributor. Not many of the players taken after him in the second round are very good. Absolutely NOT part of the problem.

Asamaoh just got done having a damn good game against the best DL in football. NOT part of the problem.

Sheffield looks about as good as a player can after missing a year to IR for a neck injury. NOT part of the problem.

Lewis has taken a step back, but as a 5th rounder, how much do you reall expect from the guy? Part of the problem.

The ONLY guys out of that list that are playing but are a reason we are getting beat are Lewis and Maybe Dexter. Pure and simple. The rest of those picks are solid and both of those players have lots of chances to step their game up and be part of the solution by years end.

As far as the 2011 draft goes, if you expect them to come right out of the gates and be major contributors with no offseason, you are fooling yourself.

By years end, I bet MOST of them are playing major roles for this club and are making a big difference (hopefully, not too much of a difference because that may take us out of the Luck talk)

Baldwin, Houston, Hudson, Stanzi and Powe should all be playing MAJOR roles that help this team by years end.

I bet Haley had a lot more input into making all of these picks than most here realize.

Both drafts were outstanding IMO and are in the conversation as the best drafts we have had in some time...especially if you figure losing Jared Allen into the 2008 draft.

So Moeaki is the difference between us winning and losing by 35 points? Got it.

[BossChief]

So Moeaki is the difference between us winning and losing by 35 points? Got it.
I'm not surprised by this response, its par for the course for you.

Ummm, how about Moeaki, Berry and Cassel?

In regards to Cassel, we have the worst starting field position in the whole league...average starting position has been the 21 yard line.

We are also worst in the league in opposing starting field position.

This is the WOW factor.

Opponents average starting field position is the 43 yard line.

That is a direct reflection to Cassel shitting his pants all game and giving the opposing team the ball without much to do to score with it.

Any other garbage posts you want me blow up?

[Titty Meat]

I'm not surprised by this response, its par for the course for you.

Ummm, how about Moeaki, Berry and Cassel?

In regards to Cassel, we have the worst starting field position in the whole league...average starting position has been the 21 yard line.

We are also worst in the league in opposing starting field position.

This is the WOW factor.

Opponents average starting field position is the 43 yard line.

That is a direct reflection to Cassel shitting his pants all game and giving the opposing team the ball without much to do to score with it.

Any other garbage posts you want me blow up?

Yea we were real competitive in the pre-season with those guys weren't we Sussie. You trying to defend Haley is hilarious.

[BossChief]

Yea we were real competitive in the pre-season with those guys weren't we Sussie. You trying to defend Haley is hilarious.

LMAO LMAO LMAO

We didnt look as bad when Cassel came off the field, but I can surely agree that Falco isnt a legit option, either..but there is this one guy...

Any more dumbass posts you want me to blow up?

[Titty Meat]

LMAO LMAO LMAO

We didnt look as bad when Cassel came off the field, but I can surely agree that Falco isnt a legit option, either..but there is this one guy...

Any more dumbass posts you want me to blow up?

The whole team hasn't look prepared since the lockout ended hmmm I wonder why? Of course you ignore this.

Dumbass posts like we're going to beat Detroit?

[Titty Meat]

Well shit, now I know that Pioli reads my posts.

HEY BRO, SEND ME A PM...ILL WORK THE FIRST YEAR FOR FREE!!!

haha



I love Shaun Smith and think he was one of the leaders of the defense last year that started really transforming into a respectable unit. I think it was a mistake for any team to be able to win a bidding war for a mid level free agent, but whats done is done and I understand why.

1) Tyson Jackson needs to be on the field if he is to develop as a player.

2) After drafting Bailey and already having Gilberry to fill the rotation, he would have been on the bench a lot to be paid 3.5 million....I do think his flexibility to play all three DL spots would have proved useful, though.

Its a shame he wasnt retained and after signing Gaither today, that (and a backup QB) was really my only gripe about this offseason.

Pioli is well on his way to winning another Executive of the year award.

ROFL ROFL ROFL You're about as credible as Kato Kaelin.

[BossChief]

The whole team hasn't look prepared since the lockout ended hmmm I wonder why? Of course you ignore this.

Dumbass posts like we're going to beat Detroit?

Again, go watch the Detroit game again and tell me afterwards that we were unprepared coming into the game and up until the point Charles goes down and the wind is taken out of our sails.

I just want to confirm once again, your ignorance.

FTR, I completely EXPECT a worse result Sunday because IMO this team has totally given up on Cassel....not Haley.

[Titty Meat]

Again, go watch the Detroit game again and tell me afterwards that we were unprepared coming into the game and up until the point Charles goes down and the wind is taken out of our sails.

I just want to confirm once again, your ignorance.

FTR, I completely EXPECT a worse result Sunday because IMO this team has totally given up on Cassel....not Haley.

LMAO JFC quit speaking out of both sides of your mouth. If Haley is a great motivator as you say players won't give up. You are so full of shit it's hilarious. You gonna present Scott Pioli his executive of the year award in the KC Wolf Mascot?

[BossChief]

ROFL ROFL ROFL You're about as credible as Kato Kaelin.

You are one of the most hopeless posters on the whole site.

Pioli had a draft that was the absolute best this team has had in a very long time and before you bring up 2008, remember that without the picks we got from Jared Allen, we only have Dorsey, Carr, Flowers and Richardson left of that class 3 years later.

Look back over our draft and see the potential it has to be leaps and bounds better than the 2008 class.

Also:

Breaston
Gaither
McClain
Gregg - who so far has been a bit disapointing, Ill admit.


As far as Im concerned we made 3 mistakes this offseason:

1) keep Shaun Smith
2) sign a veteran backup QB
3) Sign Merriweather

Other than that, I totally stick by that comment.

People were jumping out of windows last year, too, after 2 games...this year I think we are gonna be in a 3 game hole and I think that we need to make a change at QB at the bye week and for the sake of SFL, we need to give Shane Falco 3 games before moving to Stanzi and giving him experience going forward.

[BossChief]

LMAO JFC quit speaking out of both sides of your mouth. If Haley is a great motivator as you say players won't give up. You are so full of shit it's hilarious. You gonna present Scott Pioli his executive of the year award in the KC Wolf Mascot?

Hey genius, if the players don't believe in the regime, why are they signing extensions during the year like they have been?

***waiting for the damning answer one way or the other for you.

[Titty Meat]

You are one of the most hopeless posters on the whole site.

Pioli had a draft that was the absolute best this team has had in a very long time and before you bring up 2008, remember that without the picks we got from Jared Allen, we only have Dorsey, Carr, Flowers and Richardson left of that class 3 years later.

Look back over our draft and see the potential it has to be leaps and bounds better than the 2008 class.

Also:

Breaston
Gaither
McClain
Gregg - who so far has been a bit disapointing, Ill admit.


As far as Im concerned we made 3 mistakes this offseason:

1) keep Shaun Smith
2) sign a veteran backup QB
3) Sign Merriweather

Other than that, I totally stick by that comment.

People were jumping out of windows last year, too, after 2 games...this year I think we are gonna be in a 3 game hole and I think that we need to make a change at QB at the bye week and for the sake of SFL, we need to give Shane Falco 3 games before moving to Stanzi and giving him experience going forward.

You do know they give executive of the year awards based on the current year not past ones right? LMAO @ you saying Pioli was going to win another one this year.

[Titty Meat]

Hey genius, if the players don't believe in the regime, why are they signing extensions during the year like they have been?

***waiting for the damning answer one way or the other for you.

You're right they should turn down money and risk not having a contract and suffering an injury like Berry or Charles. You aren't the sharpest tool in the shed.

[BossChief]

You do know they give executive of the year awards based on the current year not past ones right? LMAO @ you saying Pioli was going to win another one this year.

LMAO @ u thinking we had a bad offseason of player personnel acquisitions when we had a very solid free agency period and a GREAT draft.

[BossChief]

You're right they should turn down money and risk not having a contract and suffering an injury like Berry or Charles. You aren't the sharpest tool in the shed.

haha

if they quit on a team, why the fuck would they sign a long term contract to stay? If they thought this team was a lost cause, they could have waited it out and gotten similar coin from a better team in FA...injuries happen, that reason is more of an excuse than solid reasoning.

Is it possibly because they believe in our coaching/team and that our "cheap" owner gave them great contracts to make sure they stay?

[Titty Meat]

haha

if they quit on a team, why the **** would they sign a long term contract to stay? If they thought this team was a lost cause, they could have waited it out and gotten similar coin from a better team in FA...injuries happen, that reason is more of an excuse than solid reasoning.

Is it possibly because they believe in our coaching/team and that our "cheap" owner gave them great contracts to make sure they stay?

You must have missed the part where I mentioned money.

[Titty Meat]

LMAO @ u thinking we had a bad offseason of player personnel acquisitions when we had a very solid free agency period and a GREAT draft.

This post right here illustrates you don't have a clue what the fuck you're talking about. I'm done with you.

[whoman69]

This board is famous for pouncing on one small portion of a person's argument, making it seem as if its their whole argument and laughing at that conclusion without really offering alternatives.

The Check Down effect and the injuries have pulled down this whole team but that's not the whole answer. The team came into the season unprepared and I lay that on Haley. That still isn't the whole answer. We came into this season with holes that were never filled. I don't know whether to blame the GM or the owner for that one. For the last ten years unless they were promised a playoff run, the owners have consistently been well under the cap. This year is no exception. I saw an article posted here the other day talking about salaries and saying they have no connection to winning. The problem is there is no way those figures include signing bonuses. There is no way the Cowboys are in the bottom third.

The problems this year go through all levels. It goes from players to coaches to front office to ownership. Who is most to blame? Everyone.

[Titty Meat]

This board is famous for pouncing on one small portion of a person's argument, making it seem as if its their whole argument and laughing at that conclusion without really offering alternatives.

The Check Down effect and the injuries have pulled down this whole team but that's not the whole answer. The team came into the season unprepared and I lay that on Haley. That still isn't the whole answer. We came into this season with holes that were never filled. I don't know whether to blame the GM or the owner for that one. For the last ten years unless they were promised a playoff run, the owners have consistently been well under the cap. This year is no exception. I saw an article posted here the other day talking about salaries and saying they have no connection to winning. The problem is there is no way those figures include signing bonuses. There is no way the Cowboys are in the bottom third.

The problems this year go through all levels. It goes from players to coaches to front office to ownership. Who is most to blame? Everyone.

Thats why I said Pioli and Haley should be fired if we're drafting in the top 10. Get a new GM & Coach and finally draft a QB round 1.

[BossChief]

This post right here illustrates you don't have a clue what the fuck you're talking about. I'm done with you.

If you think we had a bad draft and free agency period, you are who we think you are.

[whoman69]

Thats why I said Pioli and Haley should be fired if we're drafting in the top 10. Get a new GM & Coach and finally draft a QB round 1.

We will most certainly be drafting in the top 10. Hunt is not exactly known for making decisions on the spot. We fire both and we should have a new HC installed by mid February. I don't know what was in my post that intimated that we gut the whole organization. If you're trying to use my post as something to confirm your theories, there was nothing in there to work up to that point. I said in my post there is no way to know how much of our woes come from the owner and how much from the GM. Obviously this team came into the year with big holes that were band-aided over. That's been the way for the last 10 years or more. Leads me to believe its more on the owner. Can we fire Hunt?

[Pioli Zombie]

The records since 2006. 12-4, 16-0, 11-5, 10-6, 14-2. Obviously the players brought in sucked shit.