Football Was Pioli inept in the 2006-2008 drafts?

Deberg_1990 · 09-23-2011, 07:31 AM

http://uponfurtherreview.kansascity.com/?q=node/3539

I’ve given a little bit of attention to Pioi’s drafts each season he’s been at Kansas City, but I haven’t done anything even remotely comprehensive for his career since shortly after he was hired. At the time, I did a two-parter (Part I and Part II) in which I completely discounted his magic in New England – that apart from a fluke pick in the sixth round (Brady), Pioli’s picks were no better than Peterson’s picks had been over all the same years Pioli was involved in the process. And, I had so much fun with that picture, I couldn't resist using it again, although this time... I'm taking the other side.

One quick point on Brady. As I stated in the two-parter, if Pioli was so brilliant as to draft Brady in the sixth round, then I presume he was on dumb pills for the first five rounds.

-------------------------

I heard something yesterday that was designed to make Pioli look extremely bad. Maybe he is and maybe he isn’t, but the stat was grossly misleading. And, homey can’t allow that!

The comments I heard yesterday regarding Pioli were that in the three drafts in which he participated prior to Kansas City (2006, 2007 and 2008) that there were only three players left on NE’s roster… and that shocking statistic was supposed to mean he had been horrible at his job – at least for those three years.

I maintain that he was average at his job prior to KC with one freak exception (Brady). But, to say (or imply) that he was horrible (as the three-year, three-player-on-the-roster stat seems to do) is just a wretched case of abusing a statistic.

The indictment went on to emphasize that not one player from the 2007 class at New England was still on the roster. Now, I heard this on local radio, but it was citing a story done by someone in Boston. I don’t care who it was, I’m going to set the record straight.

2007

Let’s begin with 2007. It is a fact that none of New England’s draft picks are on New England’s roster at this minute. If you want to twist an argument to be that simplistic, then quit reading now. On the other hand, I’m of the opinion that the vast majority of UFR readers would want to know that New England had one first round draft pick (#24). But, guess what? They didn’t have a second round pick. And, they didn’t even have a third round pick.

Now, let’s look at the first round pick. It was Brandon Meriweather. I decided to show the rest of the first round picks behind him and an equal number in front of him. Shown are the games played in the NFL and the number of pro bowls.

Pick
Player
ProBowls
Games.Played

#16
Justin Harrell
0
13

#17
Jarvis Moss
0
41

#18
Leon Hall
0
66

#19
Michael Griffen
1
66

#20
Aaron Ross
0
59

#21
Reggie Nelson
0
63

#22
Brady Quinn
0
14

#23
Dwayne Bowe
1
61

#24
Brandon.Meriweather
2
66

#25
Jon Beason
3
65

#26
Anthony Spencer
0
62

#27
Robert Meachem
0
48

#28
Joe Staley
0
52

#29
Ben Grubbs
0
65

#30
Craig Davis
0
26

#31
Greg Olsen
0
64

#32
Anthony Gonzalez
0
32

-

The bottom line is that Meriweather has not missed a single NFL game so far. Only Hall and Griffen can also say that. In addition, he went to the Pro Bowl twice. Only Beason went more often and only two others went once. Meriweather is no longer with New England even though he was a Pro Bowler the last two years. The reason is because they wanted to trade him, couldn’t and didn’t feel they needed him and didn’t want to pay big bucks on his next contract.

So, NE got four years from him, two of which were Pro Bowl seasons. Obviously, that’s considerably better than average.

The Pats fourth and fifth-round picks failed to make a dent in the NFL, but that’s not exactly uncommon for fourth or fifth-rounders.

In the sixth round, they had three picks that made it in the NFL. One played 32 games, another 22 and yet another 21, who is still in the NFL. In fact, he started against Kansas City (Detroit) last weekend. If you examine sixth round picks, you will see that this is roughly average.

THE MOST IMPORTANT POINT: When I was listening to this debate, the thing that struck me most was not that New England drafts near the bottom of each round or that they may have traded away picks ahead of time. The thing that I thought of was that New England is STACKED. It’s one thing for Kansas City draft picks to play and start in the NFL for KC, but it’s another entirely for them to get a place on the roster of a team the quality of New England. In fact, it’s not unreasonable to assume picks are specifically high risk knowing that the only way they will be of value is if they are far better than everyone thinks. So, if you are already loaded, you roll the dice. Why not?

Nevertheless, despite what I have written to this point, Pioli was being crucified for his 2007 picks – and I would argue that considering they did not have a 2nd or 3rd round pick, they did as well as could reasonably be expected.

2006 and 2008

In 2008, the Patriots selected Jerod Mayo in the first round. He was a Pro-Bowler last year for New England. They also still have Matt Slater from the fifth round. Jonathan Wilhite was a fourth round pick who played 39 games before an injury late last season. Could it be better. Maybe. But, at the same time, when you wheel and deal as much as New England and the team is as good as it is, adding anyone from a given draft – especially a Pro Bowler is a positive.

The 2006 draft was six seasons ago. Their first pick was Laurence Maroney. He’s a running back and we all know the shelf life of the average RB in the NFL. He played into last season, but is now out of the league. I can’t say a whole lot for their second round pick. Their third rounder is still in the NFL, just not with NE. Their fourth-rounder is a Pro Bowler (Gotkowski). He is still a Patriot. The fifth-round pick (O’Callaghan) started 12 games for the Chiefs in 2009, but is out of the league after last season. One of their sixth-rounders is still in the NFL. Another played 45 games and is out as of last year.

The bottom line here is that the implication is that Pioli and NE had picks in every round and that they were all busts except for three players who are still with the team. No consideration for missing picks because of trades or the fact that they draft near the bottom of the round. And nary a mention of the fact that they have much fewer holes to fill and consequently, the odds of a player drafted by NE and making it on NE are remote.

I’m not saying I’m a huge Pioli fan. I’m ambivalent at this point, but I generally like his drafts at Kansas City so far. What I am saying is that the attack on him I heard based upon a simple statistic (three players from the 2006-2008 draft are still on the team and none from 2007) is absurd.

What really makes it even more absurd is the fact that New England has been great for a decade now and the only reason is because of the good decisions made by management, of which Pioli was a major part.

I’m all for tar and feathering someone if they deserve it, but going back and rewriting history in order to prove a present-day problem is hardly worthy of serious debate.

**FRCDFED** · 09-23-2011, 08:47 AM

All good points!

ShowtimeSBMVP · 09-23-2011, 08:53 AM

Nick wright did a whole hour on this last week.

Brock · 09-23-2011, 08:57 AM

Yes, quite so. Several people pointed out that the Patriots drafts weren't really very good overall, even before Pioli was hired.

ToxSocks · 09-23-2011, 09:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brock

Yes, quite so. Several people pointed out that the Patriots drafts weren't really very good overall, even before Pioli was hired.

This. There were many discussions about this topic around the time Peterson was fired.

Amnorix · 09-23-2011, 09:25 AM

2006-08 were bad drafts overall. There is a big asterisk next to 2007, however, as the Patriots traded a number of high picks to get Welker and Moss. We also traded a pick to get a LB which didn't work out well, and rolled the #28 pick in the '08 draft over to the Niners for their #1 in '08, which turned out to be Jerod Mayo, the only stud we took over those three years.

The drafts from 2000-2005, however, were mostly good (2000 was terrible other than the Brady pick, actually), and from 2009 on have been good as well, mostly.

But yes, three bad drafts in a row. Would've killed most teams...

**Bane** · 09-23-2011, 09:29 AM

Amnorix · 09-23-2011, 09:32 AM

Would say that BB/SP were above average in the draft overall because they are good at recognizing the value of picks and making moves to get more of them, which means that even with the same strikeout percentage as everyone else, they will get more hits becaues they have more at-bats, if you know what I mean.

But you can't say their drafts "weren't really good overall." Brady, Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Branch, Mayo, Mankins, Asante Samuel and Matt Light all turned out to be above-average to GREAT. A bunch more were at least good.

You can't have sustained success with consistently mediocre drafts.

**Dave Lane** · 09-23-2011, 09:49 AM

This is not going to go over well. Common sense has no place on this board...

Pants · 09-23-2011, 09:50 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amnorix

You can't have sustained success with consistently mediocre drafts.

You can if you have Brady.

Amnorix · 09-23-2011, 09:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pants

You can if you have Brady.

Bad drafts were 2006-2008. Cassel was our starter and went 11-5 in 2008...

Pants · 09-23-2011, 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Amnorix

Bad drafts were 2006-2008. Cassel was our starter and went 11-5 in 2008...

touche

lcarus · 09-23-2011, 11:32 AM

For the Patriots it doesn't really matter. They'd be dog shit without Brady.

Okie_Apparition · 09-23-2011, 11:34 AM

He had controll in NE like he has in KC?

lcarus · 09-23-2011, 11:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Okie_Apparition

He had controll in NE like he has in KC?

I heard Billy had the final say on things. It's becoming apparent why.

09-23-2011, 07:31 AM
Deberg_1990 In Search of a Life Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: San Antonio Tx. Casino cash: $3714454	Was Pioli inept in the 2006-2008 drafts? http://uponfurtherreview.kansascity.com/?q=node/3539 I’ve given a little bit of attention to Pioi’s drafts each season he’s been at Kansas City, but I haven’t done anything even remotely comprehensive for his career since shortly after he was hired. At the time, I did a two-parter (Part I and Part II) in which I completely discounted his magic in New England – that apart from a fluke pick in the sixth round (Brady), Pioli’s picks were no better than Peterson’s picks had been over all the same years Pioli was involved in the process. And, I had so much fun with that picture, I couldn't resist using it again, although this time... I'm taking the other side. One quick point on Brady. As I stated in the two-parter, if Pioli was so brilliant as to draft Brady in the sixth round, then I presume he was on dumb pills for the first five rounds. ------------------------- I heard something yesterday that was designed to make Pioli look extremely bad. Maybe he is and maybe he isn’t, but the stat was grossly misleading. And, homey can’t allow that! The comments I heard yesterday regarding Pioli were that in the three drafts in which he participated prior to Kansas City (2006, 2007 and 2008) that there were only three players left on NE’s roster… and that shocking statistic was supposed to mean he had been horrible at his job – at least for those three years. I maintain that he was average at his job prior to KC with one freak exception (Brady). But, to say (or imply) that he was horrible (as the three-year, three-player-on-the-roster stat seems to do) is just a wretched case of abusing a statistic. The indictment went on to emphasize that not one player from the 2007 class at New England was still on the roster. Now, I heard this on local radio, but it was citing a story done by someone in Boston. I don’t care who it was, I’m going to set the record straight. 2007 Let’s begin with 2007. It is a fact that none of New England’s draft picks are on New England’s roster at this minute. If you want to twist an argument to be that simplistic, then quit reading now. On the other hand, I’m of the opinion that the vast majority of UFR readers would want to know that New England had one first round draft pick (#24). But, guess what? They didn’t have a second round pick. And, they didn’t even have a third round pick. Now, let’s look at the first round pick. It was Brandon Meriweather. I decided to show the rest of the first round picks behind him and an equal number in front of him. Shown are the games played in the NFL and the number of pro bowls. Pick Player ProBowls Games.Played #16 Justin Harrell 0 13 #17 Jarvis Moss 0 41 #18 Leon Hall 0 66 #19 Michael Griffen 1 66 #20 Aaron Ross 0 59 #21 Reggie Nelson 0 63 #22 Brady Quinn 0 14 #23 Dwayne Bowe 1 61 #24 Brandon.Meriweather 2 66 #25 Jon Beason 3 65 #26 Anthony Spencer 0 62 #27 Robert Meachem 0 48 #28 Joe Staley 0 52 #29 Ben Grubbs 0 65 #30 Craig Davis 0 26 #31 Greg Olsen 0 64 #32 Anthony Gonzalez 0 32 - The bottom line is that Meriweather has not missed a single NFL game so far. Only Hall and Griffen can also say that. In addition, he went to the Pro Bowl twice. Only Beason went more often and only two others went once. Meriweather is no longer with New England even though he was a Pro Bowler the last two years. The reason is because they wanted to trade him, couldn’t and didn’t feel they needed him and didn’t want to pay big bucks on his next contract. So, NE got four years from him, two of which were Pro Bowl seasons. Obviously, that’s considerably better than average. The Pats fourth and fifth-round picks failed to make a dent in the NFL, but that’s not exactly uncommon for fourth or fifth-rounders. In the sixth round, they had three picks that made it in the NFL. One played 32 games, another 22 and yet another 21, who is still in the NFL. In fact, he started against Kansas City (Detroit) last weekend. If you examine sixth round picks, you will see that this is roughly average. THE MOST IMPORTANT POINT: When I was listening to this debate, the thing that struck me most was not that New England drafts near the bottom of each round or that they may have traded away picks ahead of time. The thing that I thought of was that New England is STACKED. It’s one thing for Kansas City draft picks to play and start in the NFL for KC, but it’s another entirely for them to get a place on the roster of a team the quality of New England. In fact, it’s not unreasonable to assume picks are specifically high risk knowing that the only way they will be of value is if they are far better than everyone thinks. So, if you are already loaded, you roll the dice. Why not? Nevertheless, despite what I have written to this point, Pioli was being crucified for his 2007 picks – and I would argue that considering they did not have a 2nd or 3rd round pick, they did as well as could reasonably be expected. 2006 and 2008 In 2008, the Patriots selected Jerod Mayo in the first round. He was a Pro-Bowler last year for New England. They also still have Matt Slater from the fifth round. Jonathan Wilhite was a fourth round pick who played 39 games before an injury late last season. Could it be better. Maybe. But, at the same time, when you wheel and deal as much as New England and the team is as good as it is, adding anyone from a given draft – especially a Pro Bowler is a positive. The 2006 draft was six seasons ago. Their first pick was Laurence Maroney. He’s a running back and we all know the shelf life of the average RB in the NFL. He played into last season, but is now out of the league. I can’t say a whole lot for their second round pick. Their third rounder is still in the NFL, just not with NE. Their fourth-rounder is a Pro Bowler (Gotkowski). He is still a Patriot. The fifth-round pick (O’Callaghan) started 12 games for the Chiefs in 2009, but is out of the league after last season. One of their sixth-rounders is still in the NFL. Another played 45 games and is out as of last year. The bottom line here is that the implication is that Pioli and NE had picks in every round and that they were all busts except for three players who are still with the team. No consideration for missing picks because of trades or the fact that they draft near the bottom of the round. And nary a mention of the fact that they have much fewer holes to fill and consequently, the odds of a player drafted by NE and making it on NE are remote. I’m not saying I’m a huge Pioli fan. I’m ambivalent at this point, but I generally like his drafts at Kansas City so far. What I am saying is that the attack on him I heard based upon a simple statistic (three players from the 2006-2008 draft are still on the team and none from 2007) is absurd. What really makes it even more absurd is the fact that New England has been great for a decade now and the only reason is because of the good decisions made by management, of which Pioli was a major part. I’m all for tar and feathering someone if they deserve it, but going back and rewriting history in order to prove a present-day problem is hardly worthy of serious debate.
Posts: 66,914

09-23-2011, 08:57 AM	#4
Brock Say hello to my little friend Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Larryville Casino cash: $9598422	Yes, quite so. Several people pointed out that the Patriots drafts weren't really very good overall, even before Pioli was hired.
Posts: 47,314

09-23-2011, 09:25 AM	#6
Amnorix In BB I trust Join Date: May 2003 Location: Boston, Mass. Casino cash: $10029808	2006-08 were bad drafts overall. There is a big asterisk next to 2007, however, as the Patriots traded a number of high picks to get Welker and Moss. We also traded a pick to get a LB which didn't work out well, and rolled the #28 pick in the '08 draft over to the Niners for their #1 in '08, which turned out to be Jerod Mayo, the only stud we took over those three years. The drafts from 2000-2005, however, were mostly good (2000 was terrible other than the Brady pick, actually), and from 2009 on have been good as well, mostly. But yes, three bad drafts in a row. Would've killed most teams... __________________ "I love signature blocks on the Internet. I get to put whatever the hell I want in quotes, pick a pretend author, and bang, it's like he really said it." George Washington
Posts: 43,125

09-23-2011, 09:29 AM	#7
Bane C.H.I.E.F.S Join Date: Dec 2003 Location: **** your face Casino cash: $10005055	Lol.
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09-23-2011, 09:32 AM	#8
Amnorix In BB I trust Join Date: May 2003 Location: Boston, Mass. Casino cash: $10029808	Would say that BB/SP were above average in the draft overall because they are good at recognizing the value of picks and making moves to get more of them, which means that even with the same strikeout percentage as everyone else, they will get more hits becaues they have more at-bats, if you know what I mean. But you can't say their drafts "weren't really good overall." Brady, Seymour, Wilfork, Warren, Branch, Mayo, Mankins, Asante Samuel and Matt Light all turned out to be above-average to GREAT. A bunch more were at least good. You can't have sustained success with consistently mediocre drafts. __________________ "I love signature blocks on the Internet. I get to put whatever the hell I want in quotes, pick a pretend author, and bang, it's like he really said it." George Washington
Posts: 43,125

09-23-2011, 08:47 AM	#2
FRCDFED Line'em up Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: somewhere out there Casino cash: $9326297	All good points!
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09-23-2011, 08:53 AM	#3
ShowtimeSBMVP Chiefs Join Date: Feb 2009 Casino cash: $3486009	Nick wright did a whole hour on this last week.
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09-23-2011, 09:49 AM	#9
Dave Lane Space Cadet and Aczabel Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Kanab, UT, USA Casino cash: $9333275 VARSITY	This is not going to go over well. Common sense has no place on this board... __________________ Thanks, Trump for the civics lesson. We are learning so much about RICO, espionage, sedition, impeachment, the 25th Amendment, order of succession, nepotism, separation of powers, 1st Amendment, obstruction of justice, the emoluments clause, conflicts of interest, collusion, sanctions, oligarchs, money laundering and so much more.
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09-23-2011, 11:32 AM	#13
lcarus Everybody Lies. Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: 22 Acacia Avenue Casino cash: $1569928	For the Patriots it doesn't really matter. They'd be dog shit without Brady.
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09-23-2011, 11:34 AM	#14
Okie_Apparition Banned Join Date: Jan 2011 Location: floatin cobwebs n the sky Casino cash: $10004900	He had controll in NE like he has in KC?
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