Preliminary Offseason Plan 2016

[kccrow]

Started piecing together the numbers for my offseason plan. Here's my thoughts so far...

Chiefs will "tender" all of their ERFAs at their veteran minimum. All should have 2 accrued seasons, but not certain on that.
ERFAs:
Demetrius Harris, TE - $600,000
Frankie Hammond, WR - $600,000
Charcandrick West, RB - $600,000
Daniel Sorensen, SS - $600,000
Nicholas Williams, 34DE - $600,000

Total: $3,000,000

Chiefs will sign the following veteran free agents to minimum deals:
Jah Reid, OT - $760,000 + $50,000 roster bonus + 30,000 workout bonus = $840,000, veteran cap hit rules = $665,000
Frank Zombo, 34OLB - $760,000 + $50,000 roster bonus + 30,000 workout bonus = $840,000, veteran cap hit rules = $665,000
Husain Abdullah, FS - $760,000 + $50,000 roster bonus + 30,000 workout bonus = $840,000, veteran cap hit rules = $665,000
Dezman Moses, 34OLB - $675,000
Jason Avant, WR - $870,000 + $50,000 roster bonus + 30,000 workout bonus = $950,000, veteran cap hit rules = $665,000

Total: $3,335,000

Chiefs will re-sign the following free agents to multi-year deals:
Eric Berry, SS - 5 year, 50.5 million deal with 22.5 million guaranteed. Contract model: Devin McCourty, NE. Cap numbers of 8.5, 10.5, 10, 11.5, and 10 million.
Jaye Howard, 34DE - 4 year, 34 million deal with 13 million guaranteed.
Contract model: Jurrell Casey, TEN. Cap numbers of 6.1, 8.4, 9.2, and 10.3 million.
Derrick Johnson, ILB - 2 year, 8.7 million deal with 2 million guaranteed. Contract model: Daryl Smith, BAL (final 2 years). Cap numbers of 4.35 and 4.35 million.
Jeff Allen, OG - 4 year, 17 million deal with 5 million guaranteed. Contract model: Shaun Lauvao, WAS. Cap numbers of 2.5, 4.5, 4.7, and 5.3 million.

Total: $21,450,000

Estimated Draft Selection Allocation: $7,000,000

This would put the Chiefs at approximately $150,225,000. I'm estimating the cap will be 152 million, which would be 6% growth after 8.1 and 7.7% growth the past two seasons.


Roster without draft picks:

QB - Alex Smith
QB - Tyler Bray
QB - Aaron Murray

RB - Jamaal Charles
RB - Spencer Ware
RB - Charcandrick West
RB - De'Anthony Thomas
RB - Knile Davis
FB - Anthony Sherman

TE - Travis Kelce
TE - James O'Shaughnessy
TE - Brian Parker
TE - Demetrius Harris

WR - Jeremy Maclin
WR - Albert Wilson
WR - Chris Conley
WR - Frankie Hammond
WR - Jason Avant

OT - Eric Fisher
OT - Curtis Feigt
OT - Jah Reid
OG - Ben Grubbs
OG - Paul Fanaika
OG - Jeff Allen
OG - Zach Fulton
OG - Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff
OC - Mitch Morse

34DE - Allen Bailey
34DE - Jaye Howard
34DE - Nick Williams
34DE - Rakeem Nunez-Roches
34NT - Dontari Poe

34OLB - Justin Houston
34OLB - Dee Ford
34OLB - Frank Zombo
34OLB - Dezman Moses

ILB - Derrick Johnson
ILB - Josh Mauga
ILB - Ramik Wilson
ILB - DJ Alexander
ILB - Justin March

CB - Marcus Peters
CB - Phillip Gaines
CB - Steven Nelson
CB - Marcus Cooper

FS - Ron Parker
FS - Husain Abdullah
SS - Eric Berry
SS - Daniel Sorensen

[Lil' Chubby]

I doubt we keep DJ. We drafted two MLBs last year and found an undrafted stud in training camp. It doesn't make sense. I think we are much more likely to keep Tamba.

[kccrow]

I doubt we keep DJ. We drafted two MLBs last year and found an undrafted stud in training camp. It doesn't make sense. I think we are much more likely to keep Tamba.

Mutually exclusive situations. I think Tamba is going to retire. Only confidence I have in the future at ILB is if March turns into something. Little of the remaining pieces inspire anything much. If DJ wants to return, I'm quite certain KC takes his skill and leadership back.

[jonzie04]

I doubt Abdullah comes back for that cheap. he's a quality safety in a league completely dry of quality safeties. If he hits FA he's going to get 4-5+ m a year maybe even more... Kendrick Lewis is making nearly 2m a year. Coleman got 1.5m per year after being like 4th string here last season.

Also think thats way too much money for Jaye Howard.. Non pass rushers don't command a lot of money. I think what Bailey got is his celing. Maybe closer to what Devito got coming here a few years ago.

Speaking of Devito, why are you letting him go? He's still a quality player, he loved this team and this city. And he will cost next to nothing.

[kccrow]

I doubt Abdullah comes back for that cheap. he's a quality safety in a league completely dry of quality safeties. If he hits FA he's going to get 4-5+ m a year maybe even more... Kendrick Lewis is making nearly 2m a year. Coleman got 1.5m per year after being like 4th string here last season.

Also think thats way too much money for Jaye Howard.. Non pass rushers don't command a lot of money. I think what Bailey got is his celing. Maybe closer to what Devito got coming here a few years ago.

Speaking of Devito, why are you letting him go? He's still a quality player, he loved this team and this city. And he will cost next to nothing.


Good points, thanks for the input. My immediate thoughts...

Abdullah is going to be a 31 year old DB, teams aren't going to line up to sign him to 4-5 million per. You're talking about him being on the level of, say, Reggie Nelson or Antoine Bethea. He's not on that level. He might get slightly more than vet minimum. Probably would consider the 1.5 million per range when I update, but that's a maximum.

Jaye Howard's a young lineman really coming into his own, he's only 26. He's going to get a payday. His performance this season is on par with the top defensive lineman in the NFL. I may lower this contract some, because he isn't an outstanding pass rusher, but he is a very good player. Also, contracts always go up. Chiefs got a very good deal on Allen Bailey because he only had 1 good season on tape. You may be correct and they'll get a similar discount on Howard. I might not drop his number by 2 million per, but 1.5 million per might make some sense.

Mike DeVito is a solid player at this point, but lets not pretend he's making the type of impact you couldn't get out of a much younger and cheaper player. DeVito around 1.5 million per, maybe. Anything more is an absolute no. I don't advocate putting a bunch of money in 32 year old+ players.

Hopefully addressed my thoughts on those for you.

EDIT:

On the Jaye Howard situation. What would 4 years, 27 million, 12 million guaranteed with cap numbers of 5.6, 6.3, 7.2, and 7.9 sound like to you? Puts him in the Bailey, Jason Hatcher, Desmond Bryant range.

Also, thinking about Husain Abdullah, looking at a James Ihedigbo type of contract: 2 years, 3.1 million, 750k guaranteed with cap numbers of 1.35 and 1.75 million.

[RunKC]

Here's 3 big reasons why we are set.

1. Chiefs have the projected lowest amount of dead space in the cap at $179k.
2. Chiefs are 8th in the NFL in cap space for 2016 with $34.5 million before the cap rise.
3. The Chiefs will again have extra picks from the extra 5th for Kelcie and could receive a 3rd or 4th round comp pick for Kurt Coleman.
He's started for Carolina all year and has done a great job for them.

Dorsey has done a fantastic job building a strong team and giving us the necessary means to add to it.

[RunKC]

Also, you keep Sean Smith, even if you have to franchise him. He's more important than any Free Agent we have.

Look at how we struggled without him and how much better the D is with him back. This draft is deep at CB, but without Sean Smith you have 1 for sure CB in Marcus Peters coming back. We don't know how Gaines will come back from the ACL.

[Direckshun]

Here's 3 big reasons why we are set.

1. Chiefs have the projected lowest amount of dead space in the cap at $179k.
2. Chiefs are 8th in the NFL in cap space for 2016 with $34.5 million before the cap rise.
3. The Chiefs will again have extra picks from the extra 5th for Kelcie and could receive a 3rd or 4th round comp pick for Kurt Coleman.
He's started for Carolina all year and has done a great job for them.

Dorsey has done a fantastic job building a strong team and giving us the necessary means to add to it.

I don't disagree with your conclusion, but #3 is almost certainly wrong.

By all accounts, contract size is the most important thing. Coleman's contract is small.

Plus, in order for us to receive a compensatory pick for him, we couldn't have replaced him on our roster with a player of a similar or larger contract. Which we did with Tyvon Branch.

Even if we hadn't signed Branch, which all but kills any chance at a comp pick for Coleman, Coleman's small contract would likely net us a 6th rounder, a 5th at absolute best.

[Direckshun]

Is it your assertion, kccrow, that we can't sign Sean Smith or that he wouldn't be worth it if we did?

What's a comparable contract for Smith?

[Direckshun]

Also, Tamba Hali is under contract for next year according to Overthecap.com.

[FRCDFED]

Also, you keep Sean Smith, even if you have to franchise him. He's more important than any Free Agent we have.

Look at how we struggled without him and how much better the D is with him back. This draft is deep at CB, but without Sean Smith you have 1 for sure CB in Marcus Peters coming back. We don't know how Gaines will come back from the ACL.

I agree completely with the CB assessment regarding Smith. Although irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.......I don't want to see Harris on the roster. Almost single handedly cost us the Bills game and he only played what.....3-4 plays?

[Direckshun]

At this point, I don't bring back Harris and I stick with Brian Parker.

I also let Sorenson, West, and Hammond walk. I retain Nick Williams.

As for the veteran free agents, I let all of the ones you mention walk. Abdullah is the most irreplaceable of the bunch, but he's also played himself into starter's money for 2016, and we can't afford him.

That opens up almost $6m, which you can use on Sean Smith's first year. Or have Berry take a smaller bite in Year 1.

[FRCDFED]

At this point, I don't bring back Harris and I stick with Brian Parker.

I also let Sorenson, West, and Hammond walk. I retain Nick Williams.

As for the veteran free agents, I let all of the ones you mention walk. Abdullah is the most irreplaceable of the bunch, but he's also played himself into starter's money for 2016, and we can't afford him.

That opens up almost $6m, which you can use on Sean Smith's first year. Or have Berry take a smaller bite in Year 1.

You don't see a future in the offense with West? I would be very surprised if he is allowed to walk. Unless he wants big money.

[RunKC]

I think the Chiefs will get Jaye Howard inked. I think Berry will want to come back and we'll get something done there.

I love DJ and Tamba, but right now the primary focus has got to be on Sean Smith and Jeff Allen with how little depth we'd have if they left.

I think our offseason plan will be very similar to the Packers last season. Use your cap to keep your guys and don't worry about spending for anyone external.

[Direckshun]

You don't see a future in the offense with West? I would be very surprised if he is allowed to walk. Unless he wants big money.

I don't, not with Ware playing the way he is.

I think West is a fine player but a bit overrated on CP.

[The Franchise]

I don't, not with Ware playing the way he is.

I think West is a fine player but a bit overrated on CP.

Then you tender him for $600k and between Charles, West and Ware.....you don't need a RB this offseason.

[Direckshun]

Between Charles, Ware, and Davis, plus anybody Dorsey picks up on the scrap heap, you already don't.

[The Franchise]

Between Charles, Ware, and Davis, plus anybody Dorsey picks up on the scrap heap, you already don't.

Fuck Davis. He's gone.

[FRCDFED]

I don't, not with Ware playing the way he is.

I think West is a fine player but a bit overrated on CP.

I think you have to keep West if only as an insurance policy against injury to Charles. He has shown enough to be an effective NFL RB and is clearly an upgrade over Davis. A RB combo of Charles/Ware or West/Ware would be great as change of pace backs. Davis needs to be let go. Unless we can finagle a draft pick from Jerry Jones so he can get a player from his alma matter. :D

[Direckshun]

**** Davis. He's gone.

He's under contract.

[The Franchise]

He's under contract.

You are aware we can cut people.....right? Or maybe even trade.

[kccrow]

I'll address a couple things here.

1. This is a CB Sean Smith vs. SS Eric Berry offseason if you intend to keep Howard. You might, and I stress might, be able to fit Smith in if you don't sign back Derrick Johnson or you're able to backend at least one of any of their deals. 34 million doesn't go as far as you'd hope it would and the Chiefs don't have as many creative options this season.

2. Tamba Hali is NOT under contract for 2016. He has VOID years in his deal from last year that allows the Chiefs to spread his prorated bonus out over future years. That's what you see on Over the Cap.

3. I expect Sean Smith to command a contract in the 8.5-10 million per range. I'd anticipate a bare minimum of an Antonio Cromartie deal, with a maximum of probably Sam Shields.

[Hoover]

Basically we don't need any high priced free agents. And if we lose a guy like Sean Smith or someone who's going to make bank or get a nice contract, it's fine, we will get a compensatory pick down the road, which in the future will be tradeable.

[BryanBusby]

You could structure deals to fit in both Smith and Berry, but I don't think they are keeping both.

I think Berry wants to legitimately stay and Smith wants the most money.

[RunKC]

Losing Sean Smith would almost certainly mean we have no choice but to bring in a CB FA or draft one in round 1 or 2 again.

We need him

[Halfcan]

Mutually exclusive situations. I think Tamba is going to retire. Only confidence I have in the future at ILB is if March turns into something. Little of the remaining pieces inspire anything much. If DJ wants to return, I'm quite certain KC takes his skill and leadership back.

Tamba will retire after he most likely leads the team in sacks? Doubtful. Why would he do that when he just came out and said he feels great-the extra rest Andy has been giving him really helps. He has been playing great.

And why would we keep Harris and Avant? They add nothing.

[kccrow]

Tamba will retire after he most likely leads the team in sacks? Doubtful. Why would he do that when he just came out and said he feels great-the extra rest Andy has been giving him really helps. He has been playing great.

And why would we keep Harris and Avant? They add nothing.

All the signs have been pointing towards retirement for Hali, especially the awkwardness of his contract modification last offseason (An old tactic with 4 void years to spread the prorated bonus out). However, you are correct that he sure has made himself a case not to retire. I will say this, just because he feels great doesn't mean he wants to put himself through the torture of another season. This is really going to come down to Hali. I'd welcome the guy back with open arms, but I think Hali made his decision last offseason.

As for Harris and Avant, I agree that they might not add much. However, they are guys picked by this regime and they are vet minimums that can be cut easily. At this point I'm assuming that the Chiefs will bring them both to training camp next year.

[kccrow]

Losing Sean Smith would almost certainly mean we have no choice but to bring in a CB FA or draft one in round 1 or 2 again.

We need him

I'd rather the FA CB or draft. Sean Smith is better than Jamell Fleming and Marcus Cooper, but he's not great. He's ok. Gives up alot of plays. Gaines was looking like a hell of a replacement. Hopefully he can come back 100%.

[RunKC]

Not really seeing any starting CB's in FA except guys like Josh Norman or Janoris Jenkins, who will most certainly be re-signed to their respective teams.

I think that with the uncertainty of Steven Nelson, the ACL uncertainty with Phillip Gaines and Marcus Cooper/Jamel Flemming proving to be big liabilities, we have no choice.

A rookie won't come in and play like Peters, but this draft is deep in CB. I would franchise Sean Smith if we can't get a deal done and draft another CB to groom.

[The Franchise]

I'd pay Smith what Jimmy Smith got for a contract.

4 years, $41 million.....$21 million guaranteed. Just put a clause in there where he loses all guaranteed money if he gets in trouble again.

Jimmy Smith's cap hits.

2016: $9.6 million
2017: $11.1 million
2018: $11.6 million
2019: $12.1 million

[kccrow]

Nolan Carroll is a similar player. He'll be a free agent out of Philly. He broke his fibula last week I think it was, and will be out the rest of the year. Bet he could be had for 1/4 the price of Smith. Just an idea.

A couple other solid but unspectacular players to add are Casey Hayward and Prince Amukamara

[RunKC]

Eh I like Carroll but why not keep Sean Smith?

$35 million in cap space before the cap rises? So about $40 million. We have money to keep everybody.

[kccrow]

Eh I like Carroll but why not keep Sean Smith?

$35 million in cap space before the cap rises? So about $40 million. We have money to keep everybody.

34.5 million is the estimate given an expected rise in the cap from 143.28 to 150 million. I'd expect closer to 152 but that's me thinking. The Chiefs have 4.2 million in cap space right now, but I"m not sure what will get eaten up of that by incentives and potential extensions just yet. That could also roll over, just don't hold out hope on all of it.

Keep Sean Smith at expense of who will be the question. I think you gotta re-sign Howard and Berry. After that you look at DJ, Hali, and Smith. Will DJ and Hali want to come back? If so do you keep Smith over them? Delicate at this point. If no DJ and Hali, signing Smith, Berry, and Howard is ez pz. If any one of DJ or Hali, not so much. I'd give up Smith to keep several other guys, then go with a more cost-effective option at CB.

[kccrow]

Maybe this is a good question to ask:

Pick two of the following three players:

1. DE Jaye Howard
2. CB Sean Smith
3. SS Eric Berry

Then pick between the following:

1. Whomever is left between Smith, Berry, and Howard
or
2. OG Jeff Allen, FS Husain Abdullah, and ILB Derrick Johnson


OR

Sign all three from part 1 and let Derrick Johnson walk regardless.

[Halfcan]

All the signs have been pointing towards retirement for Hali, especially the awkwardness of his contract modification last offseason (An old tactic with 4 void years to spread the prorated bonus out). However, you are correct that he sure has made himself a case not to retire. I will say this, just because he feels great doesn't mean he wants to put himself through the torture of another season. This is really going to come down to Hali. I'd welcome the guy back with open arms, but I think Hali made his decision last offseason.

As for Harris and Avant, I agree that they might not add much. However, they are guys picked by this regime and they are vet minimums that can be cut easily. At this point I'm assuming that the Chiefs will bring them both to training camp next year.

Excellent point. I am not sure why they love Avant so much, he must wash and detail their cars after practice or something.

[Halfcan]

Maybe this is a good question to ask:

Pick two of the following three players:

1. DE Jaye Howard
2. CB Sean Smith
3. SS Eric Berry

Then pick between the following:

1. Whomever is left between Smith, Berry, and Howard
or
2. OG Jeff Allen, FS Husain Abdullah, and ILB Derrick Johnson


OR

Sign all three from part 1 and let Derrick Johnson walk regardless.

All should be Chiefs next year.

DJ-leads the team in tackles- All Pro
Berry- Come back player of the year-and All Pro

Smith-besides being toasted by Sammy for a half-has played pretty solid since he came back.

The rest can be replaced in the draft.

[The Franchise]

Maybe this is a good question to ask:

Pick two of the following three players:

1. DE Jaye Howard
2. CB Sean Smith
3. SS Eric Berry

Then pick between the following:

1. Whomever is left between Smith, Berry, and Howard
or
2. OG Jeff Allen, FS Husain Abdullah, and ILB Derrick Johnson


OR

Sign all three from part 1 and let Derrick Johnson walk regardless.

Sign Smith, Berry and Howard. Allen and Abdullah can be filled through the draft and DJ is good.....but he's close to retirement.

[RunKC]

Jaye Howard and Sean Smith are our top FA's. I think Berry will be offered a good contract with incentives for our protection.

Hali will play at a minimal deal like this year if he comes back. DJ will probably be offered a $4m avg backloaded contract, Allen deserves a $4-5m avg dealand Abdullah Branch should both be offered a $2m contract. Hopefully we can keep 1 of those 2.

We can keep most of these guys. Just structure their deals differently.

[RunKC]

Sign Smith, Berry and Howard. Allen and Abdullah can be filled through the draft and DJ is good.....but he's close to retirement.

Fuck letting Allen go. We've had enough changing of the OL to see how much it fucks everything up, and Grubbs probably won't be back.

[The Franchise]

Fuck letting Allen go. We've had enough changing of the OL to see how much it fucks everything up, and Grubbs probably won't be back.

He's good....but when has he ever been fucking healthy enough to play an entire season?

[RunKC]

He's good....but when has he ever been ****ing healthy enough to play an entire season?

Would your rather re-sign him or draft OL first round? Bc I guarantee that if he leaves it's OL round 1.

[kccrow]

Jaye Howard and Sean Smith are our top FA's. I think Berry will be offered a good contract with incentives for our protection.

Hali will play at a minimal deal like this year if he comes back. DJ will probably be offered a $4m avg backloaded contract, Allen deserves a $4-5m avg dealand Abdullah Branch should both be offered a $2m contract. Hopefully we can keep 1 of those 2.

We can keep most of these guys. Just structure their deals differently.

K. Lets look at some things here.

1. Jaye Howard will command at least Allen Bailey money on the market. Let's assume he's going to cost you at least 4.5 million in year 1 as kind of a starting point.

2. Sean Smith will likely command a contract with a minimum average of 8.5 per. Most of these contracts, its hard to get below 6 million in year 1. Maybe you can work some magic and get it lower, but not much.

3. DJ might get a slightly backloaded contract. I'm thinking he's going to still get a minimum of 3.5 million in year 1. Anything less and the Chiefs should be jumping up and down. You won't have a 2 year deal for around 8.5-9 million and put 7-8 million in year 2... Might as well ask DJ if he'll play for 1.5 million for 1 year if that were the case. I used a good, very recent, example of a contract for a veteran linebacker of his age.

4. I gave Allen a Shaun Lauvao type contract in that 4.5 per range in my post and I don't think you'll get him for much under 3 million in year 1. Hopefully you can get him around 2.5 in year 1, but that's probably it.

5. You sign Abdullah or Branch at 2 million per, sure. I think you can get em at 1.5. Let's say you only sign the one. You're at 17.5 million in cap hits now.

6. You need to keep a buffer of about 7 million for your draft class. Now you're at 24.5 million.

7. You're going to want to tender your ERFAs, which will total 3 million. Now you're at 27.5 million.

8. You're going to need to fill in your top 51 with some vet free agents, so add another 2.5 million lets say. You're at 30 millon.

9. You haven't signed Berry yet.

I like your optimism, but you can't do em all.

[The Franchise]

Would your rather re-sign him or draft OL first round? Bc I guarantee that if he leaves it's OL round 1.

I guarantee it's not.

[Direckshun]

I'll also say this: we had next to no cap space last year and we still hauled in Maclin on a $50m deal.

Trust the process. Dorsey can finangle cap space like any competent GM should.

I'd re-sign Allen, personally. From the sounds of it we're already in the process of inking Howard.

Berry and DJ should be very easy for us to sign. (Not cheap, just easy.)

That leaves us Sean Smith to threaten with the franchise tag. That should bode well.