Preliminary Offseason Plan 2016

[kccrow]

Started piecing together the numbers for my offseason plan. Here's my thoughts so far...

Chiefs will "tender" all of their ERFAs at their veteran minimum. All should have 2 accrued seasons, but not certain on that.
ERFAs:
Demetrius Harris, TE - $600,000
Frankie Hammond, WR - $600,000
Charcandrick West, RB - $600,000
Daniel Sorensen, SS - $600,000
Nicholas Williams, 34DE - $600,000

Total: $3,000,000

Chiefs will sign the following veteran free agents to minimum deals:
Jah Reid, OT - $760,000 + $50,000 roster bonus + 30,000 workout bonus = $840,000, veteran cap hit rules = $665,000
Frank Zombo, 34OLB - $760,000 + $50,000 roster bonus + 30,000 workout bonus = $840,000, veteran cap hit rules = $665,000
Husain Abdullah, FS - $760,000 + $50,000 roster bonus + 30,000 workout bonus = $840,000, veteran cap hit rules = $665,000
Dezman Moses, 34OLB - $675,000
Jason Avant, WR - $870,000 + $50,000 roster bonus + 30,000 workout bonus = $950,000, veteran cap hit rules = $665,000

Total: $3,335,000

Chiefs will re-sign the following free agents to multi-year deals:
Eric Berry, SS - 5 year, 50.5 million deal with 22.5 million guaranteed. Contract model: Devin McCourty, NE. Cap numbers of 8.5, 10.5, 10, 11.5, and 10 million.
Jaye Howard, 34DE - 4 year, 34 million deal with 13 million guaranteed.
Contract model: Jurrell Casey, TEN. Cap numbers of 6.1, 8.4, 9.2, and 10.3 million.
Derrick Johnson, ILB - 2 year, 8.7 million deal with 2 million guaranteed. Contract model: Daryl Smith, BAL (final 2 years). Cap numbers of 4.35 and 4.35 million.
Jeff Allen, OG - 4 year, 17 million deal with 5 million guaranteed. Contract model: Shaun Lauvao, WAS. Cap numbers of 2.5, 4.5, 4.7, and 5.3 million.

Total: $21,450,000

Estimated Draft Selection Allocation: $7,000,000

This would put the Chiefs at approximately $150,225,000. I'm estimating the cap will be 152 million, which would be 6% growth after 8.1 and 7.7% growth the past two seasons.


Roster without draft picks:

QB - Alex Smith
QB - Tyler Bray
QB - Aaron Murray

RB - Jamaal Charles
RB - Spencer Ware
RB - Charcandrick West
RB - De'Anthony Thomas
RB - Knile Davis
FB - Anthony Sherman

TE - Travis Kelce
TE - James O'Shaughnessy
TE - Brian Parker
TE - Demetrius Harris

WR - Jeremy Maclin
WR - Albert Wilson
WR - Chris Conley
WR - Frankie Hammond
WR - Jason Avant

OT - Eric Fisher
OT - Curtis Feigt
OT - Jah Reid
OG - Ben Grubbs
OG - Paul Fanaika
OG - Jeff Allen
OG - Zach Fulton
OG - Laurent Duvernay-Tardiff
OC - Mitch Morse

34DE - Allen Bailey
34DE - Jaye Howard
34DE - Nick Williams
34DE - Rakeem Nunez-Roches
34NT - Dontari Poe

34OLB - Justin Houston
34OLB - Dee Ford
34OLB - Frank Zombo
34OLB - Dezman Moses

ILB - Derrick Johnson
ILB - Josh Mauga
ILB - Ramik Wilson
ILB - DJ Alexander
ILB - Justin March

CB - Marcus Peters
CB - Phillip Gaines
CB - Steven Nelson
CB - Marcus Cooper

FS - Ron Parker
FS - Husain Abdullah
SS - Eric Berry
SS - Daniel Sorensen

[Lil' Chubby]

I doubt we keep DJ. We drafted two MLBs last year and found an undrafted stud in training camp. It doesn't make sense. I think we are much more likely to keep Tamba.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Lil' Chubby

I doubt we keep DJ. We drafted two MLBs last year and found an undrafted stud in training camp. It doesn't make sense. I think we are much more likely to keep Tamba.

Mutually exclusive situations. I think Tamba is going to retire. Only confidence I have in the future at ILB is if March turns into something. Little of the remaining pieces inspire anything much. If DJ wants to return, I'm quite certain KC takes his skill and leadership back.

[jonzie04]

I doubt Abdullah comes back for that cheap. he's a quality safety in a league completely dry of quality safeties. If he hits FA he's going to get 4-5+ m a year maybe even more... Kendrick Lewis is making nearly 2m a year. Coleman got 1.5m per year after being like 4th string here last season.

Also think thats way too much money for Jaye Howard.. Non pass rushers don't command a lot of money. I think what Bailey got is his celing. Maybe closer to what Devito got coming here a few years ago.

Speaking of Devito, why are you letting him go? He's still a quality player, he loved this team and this city. And he will cost next to nothing.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by jonzie04

I doubt Abdullah comes back for that cheap. he's a quality safety in a league completely dry of quality safeties. If he hits FA he's going to get 4-5+ m a year maybe even more... Kendrick Lewis is making nearly 2m a year. Coleman got 1.5m per year after being like 4th string here last season.

Also think thats way too much money for Jaye Howard.. Non pass rushers don't command a lot of money. I think what Bailey got is his celing. Maybe closer to what Devito got coming here a few years ago.

Speaking of Devito, why are you letting him go? He's still a quality player, he loved this team and this city. And he will cost next to nothing.

Good points, thanks for the input. My immediate thoughts...

Abdullah is going to be a 31 year old DB, teams aren't going to line up to sign him to 4-5 million per. You're talking about him being on the level of, say, Reggie Nelson or Antoine Bethea. He's not on that level. He might get slightly more than vet minimum. Probably would consider the 1.5 million per range when I update, but that's a maximum.

Jaye Howard's a young lineman really coming into his own, he's only 26. He's going to get a payday. His performance this season is on par with the top defensive lineman in the NFL. I may lower this contract some, because he isn't an outstanding pass rusher, but he is a very good player. Also, contracts always go up. Chiefs got a very good deal on Allen Bailey because he only had 1 good season on tape. You may be correct and they'll get a similar discount on Howard. I might not drop his number by 2 million per, but 1.5 million per might make some sense.

Mike DeVito is a solid player at this point, but lets not pretend he's making the type of impact you couldn't get out of a much younger and cheaper player. DeVito around 1.5 million per, maybe. Anything more is an absolute no. I don't advocate putting a bunch of money in 32 year old+ players.

Hopefully addressed my thoughts on those for you.

EDIT:

On the Jaye Howard situation. What would 4 years, 27 million, 12 million guaranteed with cap numbers of 5.6, 6.3, 7.2, and 7.9 sound like to you? Puts him in the Bailey, Jason Hatcher, Desmond Bryant range.

Also, thinking about Husain Abdullah, looking at a James Ihedigbo type of contract: 2 years, 3.1 million, 750k guaranteed with cap numbers of 1.35 and 1.75 million.

[RunKC]

Here's 3 big reasons why we are set.

1. Chiefs have the projected lowest amount of dead space in the cap at $179k.
2. Chiefs are 8th in the NFL in cap space for 2016 with $34.5 million before the cap rise.
3. The Chiefs will again have extra picks from the extra 5th for Kelcie and could receive a 3rd or 4th round comp pick for Kurt Coleman.
He's started for Carolina all year and has done a great job for them.

Dorsey has done a fantastic job building a strong team and giving us the necessary means to add to it.

[RunKC]

Also, you keep Sean Smith, even if you have to franchise him. He's more important than any Free Agent we have.

Look at how we struggled without him and how much better the D is with him back. This draft is deep at CB, but without Sean Smith you have 1 for sure CB in Marcus Peters coming back. We don't know how Gaines will come back from the ACL.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Here's 3 big reasons why we are set.

1. Chiefs have the projected lowest amount of dead space in the cap at $179k.
2. Chiefs are 8th in the NFL in cap space for 2016 with $34.5 million before the cap rise.
3. The Chiefs will again have extra picks from the extra 5th for Kelcie and could receive a 3rd or 4th round comp pick for Kurt Coleman.
He's started for Carolina all year and has done a great job for them.

Dorsey has done a fantastic job building a strong team and giving us the necessary means to add to it.

I don't disagree with your conclusion, but #3 is almost certainly wrong.

By all accounts, contract size is the most important thing. Coleman's contract is small.

Plus, in order for us to receive a compensatory pick for him, we couldn't have replaced him on our roster with a player of a similar or larger contract. Which we did with Tyvon Branch.

Even if we hadn't signed Branch, which all but kills any chance at a comp pick for Coleman, Coleman's small contract would likely net us a 6th rounder, a 5th at absolute best.

[Direckshun]

Is it your assertion, kccrow, that we can't sign Sean Smith or that he wouldn't be worth it if we did?

What's a comparable contract for Smith?

[Direckshun]

Also, Tamba Hali is under contract for next year according to Overthecap.com.

[FRCDFED]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Also, you keep Sean Smith, even if you have to franchise him. He's more important than any Free Agent we have.

Look at how we struggled without him and how much better the D is with him back. This draft is deep at CB, but without Sean Smith you have 1 for sure CB in Marcus Peters coming back. We don't know how Gaines will come back from the ACL.

I agree completely with the CB assessment regarding Smith. Although irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.......I don't want to see Harris on the roster. Almost single handedly cost us the Bills game and he only played what.....3-4 plays?

[Direckshun]

At this point, I don't bring back Harris and I stick with Brian Parker.

I also let Sorenson, West, and Hammond walk. I retain Nick Williams.

As for the veteran free agents, I let all of the ones you mention walk. Abdullah is the most irreplaceable of the bunch, but he's also played himself into starter's money for 2016, and we can't afford him.

That opens up almost $6m, which you can use on Sean Smith's first year. Or have Berry take a smaller bite in Year 1.

[FRCDFED]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

At this point, I don't bring back Harris and I stick with Brian Parker.

I also let Sorenson, West, and Hammond walk. I retain Nick Williams.

As for the veteran free agents, I let all of the ones you mention walk. Abdullah is the most irreplaceable of the bunch, but he's also played himself into starter's money for 2016, and we can't afford him.

That opens up almost $6m, which you can use on Sean Smith's first year. Or have Berry take a smaller bite in Year 1.

You don't see a future in the offense with West? I would be very surprised if he is allowed to walk. Unless he wants big money.

[RunKC]

I think the Chiefs will get Jaye Howard inked. I think Berry will want to come back and we'll get something done there.

I love DJ and Tamba, but right now the primary focus has got to be on Sean Smith and Jeff Allen with how little depth we'd have if they left.

I think our offseason plan will be very similar to the Packers last season. Use your cap to keep your guys and don't worry about spending for anyone external.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by FRCDFED

You don't see a future in the offense with West? I would be very surprised if he is allowed to walk. Unless he wants big money.

I don't, not with Ware playing the way he is.

I think West is a fine player but a bit overrated on CP.