538, FPI, experts all about 63% Chiefs win prob

[jerryaldini]

538 elo model. 63 percent, 3.5 point favorites
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/our-guide-to-super-bowl-liv/

72 "expert" picks. 62 percent, 4 point favorites
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/28576384/super-bowl-liv-score-predictions-espn-experts-pick-49ers-chiefs%3fplatform=amp

ESPN football power index. 65 percent
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/Football-Power-Index/espn-nfl-football-power-index

Schefter just said on ESPN he has never seen a super bowl team as confident as the Chiefs at this stage

Lots of Mahomes/Chiefs praise, Schefter on Get Up this morning
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[Paniero]

Beat the 49ers.

[BWillie]

I want to see us win by four touchdowns

Make a statement

The Chiefs are the one who knocks.

[Hammock Parties]

We have that 99 Rams look.

They all know they can't be stopped.

[Chefmatt34]

It's time for the lions to show the jackals who he is.
It's too late to be scared....Its time to kill.

[Kman34]

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/ConsciousWebbedDwarfrabbit-size_restricted.gif

[staylor26]

All of that means nothing.

[Megatron96]

Been seeing the same kinds of analyses. A lot of the math is a bit advanced for me, or at least advanced enough that I don't have a desire to dig into it that much.

A lot of it tends to boil down to a fairly simple idea though: which team/player(s) have to play a more perfect game to win? For example, does Mahomes or Jimmy have to play a more perfect game? Kelce vs. Kittle? Their OL vs. our DL? And so on.

Bottom line, the Niners in all three phases have to play nearly perfectly to win.

The Chiefs only need about 80% of their absolute best offensive effort, 80% of their best defensive effort, and maybe 90% of their best St effort to win.


We have more room for error, mostly because of Mahomes, but more precisely because of our team's offensive efficiency. We can literally afford to make more mistakes in the other two phases because our offense can score so rapidly and so prolifically.

The Niners team doesn't have that luxury. If their defense doesn't play at a very high level, we just score more and their offense won't be able to keep up. If they make too many mistakes on ST, those probably translate into quick points and again their offense won't be able to make up the difference. If their offense stalls just five times in this game, they probably lose. They are going to need to score a TD on nearly every possession. Or their defense is going to have to score some points. Or they're going to have to score with their ST.

The Chiefs only need to score with their offense. The other two units only need to play efficiently and not make mistakes.

[suzzer99]

Feels about right.

[RetiredSeniorChief]

I don't want a good game, I want a 49-0 beat down where the game is never in doubt.

[UK_Chief]

Would love a blow out - we’re f***ing here to say mofos

[mdchiefsfan]

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/ConsciousWebbedDwarfrabbit-size_restricted.gif

LMAO Perfect

[warpaint*]

How accurate are those things generally?

[digger]

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/gonnies.gif

[Nzoner]

I want to see us win by four touchdowns

Make a statement

The Chiefs are the one who knocks.

Having had the opportunity to be at SB XXII my memories of that game are still very good and I've seen our Chiefs do a few times now what the Redskins did in that game and would be just fine with seeing it again.

The Redskins got off to a shaky start and found themselves down to Denver 10-0 after one quarter.What came next was a quarter for the history books as the Skins exploded for 5 td's on 18 plays in the 2nd quarter.Denver never scored again and the final was 42-10

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[Hog's Gone Fishin]

Well I was born in 63 so it must be right.

[notorious]

Fuck the experts.

[KChiefs1]

https://theathletic.com/1569315/2020/01/30/super-bowl-gambling-guide-pick-against-the-spread-over-under-and-10-attractive-prop-bets/


According the American Gaming Association, around 26 million American adults will wager an estimated $6.8 billion on Sunday’s Super Bowl between the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers.

There are the usual straightforward bets of picking a team against the spread or going with the over/under. But what makes the Super Bowl especially fun for casual gamblers are the prop bets.

Keeping that in mind, what you’ll find below is a guide to gambling on the Super Bowl. Feel free to go with my picks or fade me (it won’t hurt my feelings). Numbers are courtesy of Sportradar unless otherwise noted.

Against the spread

The Chiefs are currently 1- or 1.5-point favorites, depending on the sportsbook. The Borgata in Atlantic City opened the game at Chiefs (-1.5), and it has fluctuated between that and -1 over the past two weeks (as of this writing, it’s at -1.5). According to its director of race & sports Tom Gable, 75 percent of the money and 65 percent of the tickets have been on the Chiefs.

The case for the Chiefs: They’ve won eight games in a row and have (arguably) the best player in the NFL in Patrick Mahomes. Even if they get down by a big margin early, they can score in a hurry and take control, as they’ve shown in two playoff wins. The Chiefs are always competitive. Their three losses this season were by a combined 16 points, and they haven’t lost a game by more than seven in the last two seasons. Andy Reid’s strength is game-planning, and as pretty much everyone has pointed out, Reid has been especially good in his career when he gets a bye week to prepare. The 49ers’ strength is their defensive line, but no quarterback was sacked at a lower rate (3.3 percent) than Mahomes this season. Defensively against play-action passes, the Chiefs have limited opponents to 6.2 net yards per pass play — the fourth-best mark of any defense. Kansas City has covered 11 of 15 games when favored this season, and the Chiefs have gone 13-3 straight up with Mahomes as the starter.

The case for the 49ers: They were one of three teams during the regular season to finish in the top 10 in offensive and defensive efficiency. That speaks to their balance and the fact that they can win in different ways. The 49ers’ defensive stats are skewed by a stretch when they had key defensive players battling through injuries, but San Francisco is as healthy now as it’s been all season. The 49ers were third in sack rate and fourth in pressure rate during the regular season. They can get to opposing quarterbacks without blitzing. Offensively, Kyle Shanahan has created one of the most impressive run games in the NFL. And while Jimmy Garoppolo hasn’t had to do much in the playoffs (just eight pass attempts in the NFC title game), he was an above-average starter by every metric during the regular season. The 49ers were underdogs five times during the regular season and beat the spread all five times, going 4-1 straight up with a point differential of plus-50.

The pick: Chiefs (-1)

I’ve flip-flopped on this pick constantly since the matchup was determined a couple of weeks ago. I can 100 percent envision a scenario where Shanahan out-schemes Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, the 49ers string together long, efficient scoring drives, and their defense pressures Mahomes just enough to keep him in check. There are legit analytical and scheme-based arguments for both sides. But in the end, this just feels like Reid’s time. He’s in his 21st season as an NFL head coach and has the best player in football. I think the long wait ends, and Reid and Mahomes hoist the first of multiple Lombardi Trophies together.

Over/under: 54 or 54.5

Per Gable, the over/under at The Borgata opened at 52.5 but has bumped up to 54. The money is split nearly evenly on the total, but 77 percent of the tickets have been on the over, indicating there’s been sharp money on the under.

On the season, nine of 18 Chiefs games (50 percent) have gone over. Ten of 18 (55.6 percent) 49ers games have gone over. According to Sportradar, there have been just four games all season with a total of 54 or higher. The Chiefs have been involved in three of them (against the Lions, Colts and Texans). The other was a Rams-Falcons game in Week 7. Of those four games, the over hit just once (Chiefs-Lions).

The pick: Under 54.5

The Borgata has the number at 54, but you can get the extra half-point at other sportsbooks. While I picked the Chiefs to win, the 49ers defense is too good to get thoroughly picked apart. And I think San Francisco will be able to string together some long, efficient drives. Final score prediction: Chiefs 28, 49ers 24.

Prop bets

All of the props you see below are either from The Borgata, The Action Network, FanDuel or DraftKings.

Total yards of 49ers TDs: Over 45.5 (-115)

They had 18 touchdowns of 20-plus yards in the regular season. That was tied for second most behind only the Chiefs. I think the 49ers will be able to hit on some explosive plays in this one, and the over might hit by halftime. If you’re wondering about the Chiefs for this same bet, their over/under is 59.5 yards.

Damien Williams 53.5 rushing yards: Under (-115)

This is Reid’s second Super Bowl appearance and his best chance to take home a title. Only the 2018 Steelers passed at a higher rate than the 2019 Chiefs. You don’t really think Reid is going to go into this game wanting to run the ball, do you? Williams has totaled just 92 yards on 29 carries (3.2 per carry) in two playoff games.

Jimmy Garoppolo 19.5 completions: Over (-110)

Eight pass attempts is not going to cut it in this game. Garoppolo is going to have to throw the ball. He went over 19.5 completions eight times during the regular season, and as noted in our analytical preview, Garoppolo’s expected completion percentage was third-highest in the league. In other words, the scheme allows for some high-percentage completions. I think he’s in the 20s in this game.

Patrick Mahomes 31.5 rushing yards: Under (-103)

The fact that he’s run for 106 yards in two playoff games has bumped this number up. But the 49ers play a lot of zone, meaning their defenders will have eyes on the quarterback. And they’re fast and athletic at linebacker. Maybe Mahomes picks up a first down or two with his legs, but I don’t think his rushing is going to be a big factor.

Any score in the first six minutes: Yes (+110)

Could there be some nerves early? Sure. But Reid and Shanahan are two of the smartest offensive minds in the NFL, and they’ve had two weeks to prepare. You could get hurt by a key penalty or a missed field goal or something flukey with this wager. But essentially you’re betting that one of the two teams scores on its first possession. Besides, this bet gives you an out for the following situations.

“Hey, there’s someone I want you to meet.”

“Little Johnny just spilled his milk. Can you help him get cleaned up?”

“We’re out of beer. Can someone go make a run?”

“Wanted to get your thoughts on the 2020 election.”

If any of those questions are thrown your way as kickoff approaches, you can just say, “Sorry, I have to get to the TV. I have a bet that one of the two teams is going to score in the first six minutes.”

I feel like I’m really helping society with this one.

Number of players to have a passing attempt: Over 2.5 (+124)

The Super Bowl is when coaches empty out the playbook. In Super Bowl LII between the Eagles and Patriots, four players attempted a pass. The year before, the number was three. I’m saying either Reid or Shanahan pulls out a trick play, or maybe we see a fake punt or fake field goal to push the over.