Ours is $1 billion vs. the Phillies $2.5 billion. That's a MASSIVE difference.

Yeah, the Cardinals have money to spend and they can absolutely afford Machado or Harper. But the Phillies can afford both of them and since they didn't spend the last 18 months spinning their wheels but rather appear to be actively building toward something (whether real or imagined, that's the perception), they have a better chance of attracting FAs, IMO.

The metrics might be an anomaly but the eye test with him supports them. He just looks like he's gotten too thick; his steps aren't very fast and his range isn't terribly good. To my eyes his hands are degrading as well but I think that's a result of trying to 'think through' plays and getting himself caught in between.

I'm not saying he can't improve - there's a good chance he can get himself to a league average starting SS defensively should he just get a little more comfortable and continue to trust that cannon of an arm he has. But I wouldn't just assume he'll stick at SS at this point - he might just not be very good over there as he's matured.

And yeah, the Nats free up Harpers money but the Cards free up $20 million from Wainwright as well and they're getting NOTHING from it. That's found funds right there. The Cardinals have no real excuse for getting outmuscled financially by the Nationals - they can hang in that crowd given their relatively reasonable payroll obligations going forward and new cable dollars.

But they can't hang with everyone and have nothing else in particular to draw players there at the moment. The damage Matheny did to that team's standing is just immense. They're not going to be able to get a guy like Harper signed as a FA - probably can't even get a visit. If they ever hope to get that kind of player again it will need to be another deal like the Ozuna trade (younger player with a couple years to FA) and a hope that the player in question simply isn't the damaged goods Moe acquired from the Marlins. He enjoys his year or two in STL and the Cardinals have some additional advantages in FA bidding.

BA on Gorman:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stor...ign-for-cards/

I know that skipping State College to go full-season ball was impressive for a high school prospect, but I didn't realize exactly how rare it was.

Gorman's only the 6th high schooler to make it to A ball in his draft season in the last 10 years. JP Crawford, Addison Russell, Royce Lewis, Courtney Hawkins and some guy named Mike Trout.

Now obviously the range of outcomes there is essentially the entire spectrum of possible outcomes when you have the best player in major league baseball (one of the best in history) as well as someone who is unlikely to ever see big league ball. Still, it's a good sign when he's making that kind of progress that quickly, provided that you trust your player development staff. To this point I actually do think our player development folks in the low minors are pretty savvy.

they have at least $100 million more to spend every year than they did in say 2015.

Of course we are not outbidding the MLB big city budgets. But, not all the great players can play and share the spotlight on those 5-6 teams. MLB is not the NBA.
We are in the 2nd tier of teams when it comes to the salary cap. We are usually in the top 10. That’s good enough to compete.

The plaque for the alternates is in the lady's room.

The Cardinals have 'competed' for several FAs over the last 10 years and it's gotten them nowhere because their options are to either overpay as the high bidder or lose. They simply don't have the cache they once had that can put them over the top in these FA pursuits.

They need to focus on getting that back as well as the 'trade/sign' sort of longer term plays. I'm sure they'll make 'competitive' offers for Machado and maybe even Harper, but they won't get either guy because they don't have the kicker to put it over the top.

They just aren't a destination franchise right now. It's a damn shame because there really isn't anything that makes the Phillies more desireable than STL apart from perception. They don't have a slew of young hitters banging the door down. We have young pitching talent that compares favorably to theirs as well. We should be neck and neck with them in terms of desirability but I just don't think we are.

And when they can also outspend us, I don't see how we win a showdown with them.

Machado will pick his team and his position no matter who's already there. He will move any SS or 3B off, if he wants. Even Carlos Corrrea. "sorry dude you're going to 3B so Machado can play SS". Por que???? "That's just Manny being Manny". (Insert laugh track)


Reminds me of when Tarkanian signed Larry Johnson. Someone asked where he was going to play, being a tweener. Tark: "I suppose wherever he wants"


STL is a superior destination to Philly, not even close. The $$$ is an issue obv. Outside of maybe Anaheim or SD, easiest fan base in MLB

Just don't see it - not with the Astros. That's not a team that NEEDS to bend to the whims of a FA. And the Astros have openly acknowledged that they do have a budget and it's going to be tough to keep their young core together. I expect they let Springer walk and replace him with Tucker, but where they're really going to struggle is likely starting pitching.

Morton and Keuchel are both FAs this offseason, Verlander and Cole next. Sure, a lot of money comes off the books but in Verlander and Cole, so will the heart of their pitching staff. Moreover, their depth in will be sorely taxed if/when Morton and Keuchel walk, especially since McCullers just cannot stay healthy.

They have a high-end hitting prospect at 1b and a lot of money they need to allocate to keeping their pitching staff intact. I just cannot see them spending a premium on Machado just to take a guy like Correa and stick him at 3b while putting Bregman in the OF. That move does a ton to undercut both guys overall value to the squad.

The marginal benefit of that kind of financial outlay won't match spending that same money on keeping their starting staff together or finding their eventual replacements. Forrest Whitley can only do so much...

Regarding Phillies vs. Cardinals - hey, I'm inclined to agree but that sure isn't the narrative you're seeing in baseball right now. To hear it told, the Cardinals are lower than the Rays at the moment. I remain hopeful that a strong second half under Shildt and some happier players going into the offseason polishes the apple a bit but it's going to take time to become someplace players want to go again. I just think its impossible to overstate the damage Matheny has done to this teams standing.

So the Astros would move cost controlled and potentially better players out of SS or 3rd to pay Machado a shitload?

Why not?

Because they have a budget and it ain't slow pitch softball.

Somebody needs to pitch it. The Cubs sure looked poise to dominate baseball for a 5-year run and while they still have a chance to capitalize on some of that - even one more title would certainly change things for them - their pitching is going to make that a more uphill climb than was expected.

Cubs fans, deep in the darkest recesses of their souls where they never let Cardinals fans, will acknowledge that the present incarnation of that squad starting in/around the 2014 season and probably running through 2021 or so really should win more than a single championship. Now there's still a pretty decent chance that they do - but if they don't their pitching will be the culprit.

The Astros are going to have a 5-6 year window of their own where if they aren't smart enough to make sure that pitching staff remains sound, they're going to find themselves wishing they had. The Cubs can make the argument that Scherzer was a FA a year too soon and when they went into the market and came back with Heyward, the best SP alternative was Greinke and he's not been fantastic in his own right. The Astros won't have a 'bad timing' excuse - these are problems THEY would make for themselves; spending money to bring guys in while neglecting to maintain their own house.

I just don't think they can do that.

I think a lot of our issues with attracting talent was Matheny. His stubborn non-fun approach to the game. If you have a choice, would you want to play for him?

Larussa and Belechick attracted players willing to put up with their “hard ass” approach because they want to win a championship. No one thought Matheny was so smart or capable of willing a team to a championship.

Also you have to wonder if the whole Ferguson issue is a lingering thing. The image of a community of rednecks, deserved or not, takes forever to get out of the public’s mind.

Stl just won another player poll of most impressive fanbase.

Players still understand that playing in front of the fans in STL is a pretty sweet gig. But they dont trust the organizations leadership. Matheny is gone, sure, but Shildt will have to prove himself and frankly so will Mozeliak.

The problem isnt the town and it isnt the jersey. It's the management.

3rd highest attendance in baseball. After LA&NY. And those 40K+ per game are paying attention to the game. Appreciate even the so-so players, some treated like Rock stars. If I’m a player it would seem you’d enjoy playing here. But, those other two offer more commercial success and money.

Depends on what the player really wants out of their career. One of these top players we were discussing today can get that experience above and their $300 million. But, Beyoncé or DiCaprio ain’t stopping by the locker room or inviting the player to the after game party.

Well......

That and Theo's stupid ****ing trades.

He made a bunch of quality ones for guys like Arrieta, Hendricks, Russell, etc... But then he went and ****ed it all up by trading a top 5 prospects in MiLB for a rental closer. I can forgive him for that because it broke the WS drought, but just compare what the Indians gave up for a guy with control and equally as elite to the same team.

Fine, whatever, I'll make that trade again given the outcome.

But then he went and did the same god damn shit for a guy that is a #3 pitcher at best in Quintana.

The Astros did it way better than Theo. They went out and got guys that at their peak are legitimate aces. For christ sakes their #5 pitcher to start the season was ****ing Gerrit Cole.

Something going on with this team since Meathead was fired?

2/3 from the Cubs
3/4 from the Rockies
2/3 from the Pirates
2/3 from the Marlins

If only we kept Luhnow instead of Mo...

The Astros have the surest thing to a sure thing top of rotation SP that I think we’ve seen for a while in Whitley, so that helps.

They also have done such a good job of acquiring guys they have scouted up, that probably is still a viable vehicle, too.

They’ve done a good enough job that they’re the only org I could see making Archer as good as people think he should be.

I agree with DJ they may shell out for Cole. That makes perfect sense.


I disagree that teams nec fill in holes anymore, instead of making a strength a dominance. Take the Cubs: built entirely from less-risk high profile hitters, opting to build pitching with cast offs that were undervalued. Theo lost his way, panicked to get Quintana (understandable), and got totally destroyed by Darvish.

Imagine if he spent the Darvish $$$ on JD Martinez.

HOU has had success with cast offs like Morton. They will look at Theo as a warning against entereing FA market for the top arm.

How did Theo get totally destroyed by Darvish? He got a guy with ace material for below market value because of his injuries. He hasn't pitched well, yet, for the Cubs and he's been on the DL for awhile but year 1 isnt even complete yet and the Cubs are still in first place sitting pretty.

What is he going to do with JD Martinez? There's no room for him on this team.

Hey bro, if you're happy with the Darvish deal, I won't piss in your cheerios.

I'm not going to fault a guy for getting a guy like Darvish under market value, that's ****ing stupid.

Your idea of using the money on JD Martinez is even worse. Sure hes having a really good year... as a DH. Do tell where he would play on the Cubs. You benching Rizzo for him? Schwarber? Moving Heyward to CF and putting him in RF? I mean... think before you speak.

This is Prison Bitch you’re talking to...

He's too busy jerkin out to Al-ci-des "highlight" videos lulz

I never thought winning a title and breaking a 108 YEAR DROUGHT could cause the luster to fade from anyone, but boy if I haven't seen that exact thing happen with Maddon and Theo since 2016.

If you watch Darvish or Archer pitch, or even have them on a fantasy team, you quickly learn that the whole is far, far less than the sum of the parts. They try too hard for strikeouts and give up too many homers. This falsely deflates their peripherals, making them appear better than what they really are.

#fakeaces

To be fair, Maddon managed the entire World Series like he was trying to bring it home for the Indians, and Theo, while being almost totally incapable of drafting and developing his own pitching staff, has always had the benefit of large payrolls or bigger idiots to absorb/deflect his blunders.

Every team in the NL is giddy he got taken to the cleaners by Darvish. Gives the Cards newfound life. Their rotation (even Lester) is rickety now. Their offense is quite good and still young so that'll keep them in the hunt for a few more years, but they won't win in October with that staff.

Theo is a master at finding $22M undervalued assets like 0.2 Darvish.

(That's his fWAR)

Certainly seemed to be the case with Darvish after he came back from Tommy John. I had him only my fantasy team last year and luckily my first pitcher taken this year was someone much more solid in Quintana.

Ive got some cubs friends fans from northern Illinois.. they are ready to can maddon.

Yep - flipsides of the same coin.

And every generation has 1 or 2 of them. It's just that in previous generations guys like that were called losers who couldn't make the big pitch and castigated accordingly.

Nowadays we just call wins a stupid stat, bestow them with 'ace' status anyway and continue to insist that Archer's actually way better than a 5 year track record of mediocrity say he is...

{**** I got old quickly....if you need me, I'll be outside yelling at clouds}

I'll take it! Obviously a 69% winning percentage isn't sustainable but this team is showing signs of life. Carp is just out of his mind right now. I'll admit before this happened, I was ready to trade him just to shake things up because I didn't think Mo would ever fire Matheny. What do I know.

Winning 7/10 for the rest of the season isn't sustainable, no. But winning 6/10 is and if they manage that for the rest of the year that gets them to 88 wins.

Now that probably isn't enough to get them either WC given the number of teams that will crater down the stretch to boost the records of the 4-5 potential WC teams right now.

But IF those wins are against the right teams, they can make it damn interesting. Can they play .640 baseball from here out to get to 90? Seems like a long-shot given the tattered remains of their starting pitching right now and the fact that Wacha doesn't appear close to returning (and Martinez really should be shut down).

But they have life. The 16 game stretch after the Royals series will decide a LOT. That's a long, tough stretch of ballgames against teams that are all battling for the playoffs. Get through that at 9-7 and they're back in the thick of things (presuming they take care of business against KC; never a given with this squad's ability to play down to their opponent).

And at some point it sure would be nice to see them complete one of these sweeps. They keep fumbling 1 gm/series that they could have easily won. Finish off one of those sweeps and things start to build momentum quickly.

They're gonna have to have a 7 or 8 game winstreak here sometime if they wanna get over the edge.

They're two clutch hits away from being in the middle of a 8 gamer right now.

At the end of the year, games like the first games of the Pirates and Marlins series will loom large. As will the half dozen games that array of shitty relievers Matheny insisted on trotting out there cost us.

Holland, Gregerson, Lyons and Bowman are the reason we're not sitting at WC1 right now. Those guys were just absolute disasters.

Pretty much.

I said in here when Matheny was fired that they can get to 5-6 games over. Holland and Cecil blew 5 games. We could get to 90 wins and a wild card next year. Like everyone else has said they need a sweep and maintain that 60% win % and they may make it this year.

I think we will get waxed but it will be good experience for our young players. A one game can go any way. We got a chance. Series? Don’t think so. Not this year.

I don't think they can next year or the year after without a MAJOR addition. And by the time someone like Gorman or Montero comes along, Carpenter will be gone or fading badly (you hope Knizner can at least replicate Yadi's offense but Yadi will slide in the interim).

The future is still murky at best. The Brewers still won't have any starting pitching next season but the Braves and Phillies are coming HARD. The D-Backs are probably going to take a step back but I like the Rockies ability to step into that void.

The NL is still going to have 5-6 teams that are as well or better situated than the Cardinals in the coming years, IMO.

I don’t know what “major” means to you. I just don’t see the Cardinals making the same safe incremental moves this off season. They know the fan base is still upset. They need changes beyond what they have already done.

as the resident homer, I must point out that no one thought, or at least the ones who post in here, we’d do shit going into the 2006/2011 playoffs.

We need more and better talent. We need a #3 hole hitter. We can make the playoffs next year. IMO.

Quintana stinks like poop this year. Same fWAR as Jason hammel (0.8)

'Major' = 4-5 win player.

Not sure how they get one of those. And even with that, I think they need Ozuna to get back to 3-4 wins at least.

And I will reiterate, I had them winning the championship once they got in in '06. I didn't think they'd manage it in '11 though.

Yeah, Quintana's been as 4th startery as they get this year. Just ungodly mediocre.

For that Cubs tard still holding hope for Darvish.....General rule of Free Agents, and I shouldn't have to explain this to adults: if you're not even getting value Year 1, you very likely got fleeced.


(Aka "Sandoval'd")

Yeah, it's pretty hard to 'win' a free agent deal if you eat the first year. Now if Darvish shows up in October and pitches 2-3 games like Cueto did for the Royals, all will be forgiven. And when you see his stuff you're constantly convinced that he has that crayon in his crayon box. But man - he sure seems to spit the bit int he post-season quite a bit.

If he shows up in Oct and pitches well that'll blow everyone's mind. He was a puddle of piss last October on the big stage

I agree. That #3 hole hitter would give them 4-5 wins. Mo has to get one somehow, someway. If not through FA and $300+million then they are going to have to trade some young pitching and outfielders. And it will have to be at least one, maybe two of Reyes/Flaherty/Martinez/Hicks level or we are not getting a legitimate 3 hole hitter.
That was a 12 years ago thread. I don't feel like checking the 2006 thread so I'll take your word for it. Duly noted.

No matter how you slice and dice it, its trending up.


Matheny lost 10 out of his last 15 games. 10/15. Pathetic.

Shildt 13-9 since taking over


Shildt 4 consecutive series wins. 3 against winning teams (4/6 series wins total)

Meathead won 4 series out of his last 14 series (4/14 total series wins)

In the the last 10 weeks of Mike Matheny's tenure the Cardinals won 5 series COMBINED.

They've won 4 in a row under Shildt.

Now it's a small sample size that this hell-stretch after the Royals could flip on its head pretty easily, but it's impossible to watch this team and not notice that it's playing decidedly better baseball.

That was a 12 years ago thread. I don't feel like checking the 2006 thread so I'll take your word for it. Duly noted.

EDIT:


I had this one saved. Looks like Hamas may have kinda said they had a chance before the series. Didn't search for you. Like I said, I take you at your word anyway.
http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=150694

It wasn't here. I thought I rep messaged you a thread from my Cardinals board once. Eh - no matter. The difference between that team and 2011 (or so I said at the time) was the 2006 team still had HOF talent with HOF ability who were simply injured for large parts of the year and finally started getting healthy into September.

I felt like the '11 squad was more smoke and mirrors.

I think the 2004/2005 Cardinals had the most talent of any team since the Whitey ball era.

Pft....Whitey ball?

Try Musial or even the Gashouse Gang.

The 2004 St. Louis Cardinals would've MAULED any of Whitey's teams. I will always be bitter as hell that they didn't win a championship. That was unquestionably the best team in the sport and just got wrecked by the vagaries of short series baseball. 2006 was the baseball Gods doing us a solid and making up for screwing us two years prior.

2005 was undone by Mark Mulder quitting because of a bad break in an elimination game. I attended that game and I've never seen a pitcher visibly give up the way he did after that call at 2b and a simple seeing eye grounder. He just decided he'd had enough of that particular pitchers duel and was going to groove pitches the rest of the day. His body language was absolute shit.

**** you, Mark Bellhorn. **** you as well, Mark Mulder.

Now, I got curious. Search rep came right up. You were proving in the 2011 thread that you said they'd win in 2006. Link provided.


The link is dead. But based on the overwhelming circumstantial evidence, I rule in your favor. You were indeed Nostradamus like.
http://www.birdsonthebat.org/showpos...71&postcount=1

The 04 Cards had the 4th best offense/speed/def (fWAR) in Cards history. 1985 was 3rd.


The 04 Cards had the 6th best offense + pitching. 1985 was 4th.



Net: Whitey's 1985 club was better at both facets.

You basically are asking for a repeat of 2011. Cards record on August 24, 2011?

67-63

Those are good years to compare. 1985 pisses me off similarly as 2004. Both years, we had really exceptional regular season and our best players at their peaks or near it.

1985 and the duels with the Mets down the stretch were some epic contests. 1985 might have been payback for winning in 1982 with probably an inferior team to the Brewers.

I thought after Pujols crushed that Lidge pitch into the stratosphere instead of the Astros celebrating going to a WS, We were going to win the WS in 2005. Going home for games 6&7. One of the top talented teams we have had at their peak form....seemed like destiny.:(

Mark. Mulder.

God I hate him...

Cards trivia: according to Fangraphs which Cards team (118 year franchise history) created the most runs defensively? And which destroyed the most offensively?



(You can kill 2 cardinals with 1 stone here, it was the same team)

Given that their defensive metrics only go back so far, I would guess 2004.

Detailed def metrics go back then, but they calc summary metrics for all time.


And by offense "destroyed" I mean, the worst runs created relative to league. 04 created the 4th most by a Cards team and they also were excellent defensively

In that case its last years.

No

It was a Whitey team.

Mozeliak’s bullpen makeover is a dramatic success.

In 13 games since the maneuvering ended, Cardinals relievers have a 1.34 ERA. That’s the best in the NL and second in the majors to Oakland (1.13) since July 27. The Cardinals are 9-4 after reinforcing the weakest part of the team and turning it into a steady, sturdy asset.

The remodeling was basically a three-stage process.

First, the Cardinals designated two terrible relievers for asspignment (righty Greg Holland, lefty Tyler Lyons) and placed a third (left-hander Brett Cecil) on the disabled list.

In phase two, rookies Austin Gomber (a lefty), Daniel Poncedeleon and Dakota Hudson were promoted from Triple-A Memphis and given bullpen jobs. Another rookie, lefty Tyler Webb, had been picked up from the Padres on a waiver claim. After demonstrating his talent for a while at Memphis, Webb was summoned to St. Louis to join the build-a-better-bullpen movement.

Third, the Cardinals traded Triple-A first baseman Luke Voit and international bonus money to the Yankees for left-handed reliever Chasen Shreve and right-handed reliever Giovanny Gallegos. Shreve immediately joined the St. Louis bullpen, and Gallegos reported to Memphis.

The fresh arms have made a difference, teaming with Bud Norris, Jordan Hicks and Mike Mayers, the three most reliable relievers that have worked out of the Cardinals’ bullpen all season.

Over the last two weeks, Cards’ relievers have allowed an opponents’ batting average of .170 , an on-base percentage of .243 and a slugging percentage of .261.

In the 15 games before Mozeliak’s massive reform, the worn St. Louis bullpen had been battered for a .356 average, .442 OBP and .522 slugging.

The six rookies have combined to pitch 32 2/3 of the 47 bullpen innings since July 27, allowing only four earned runs for a 1.10 ERA. Hudson hasn’t given up an earned run in his first 8 2/3 big-league innings.
——————————————
From Bernie’s column on the Athletic.

If only they had taken this much cheaper younger approach earlier.

then maybe they would have kept Meathead?

If only they'd fired his ass earlier.

God I hate it when some so obvious, necessary and inevitable takes ****ing forever to happen. :banghead:

Ahh, so an aggressively shitty team. Probably one of the teams in the late 70's or early 90's, I'd guess.

It's what I've argued that the Cardinals do for years. The best relievers are repurposed starters. I've said it over and over again. Look at what the Astros have done this year. They've taken guys like Colin McHugh and Brad Peacock, who were shitty starting pitchers, and turned them into excellent relief pitchers. The Royals did it by accident with Davis and Hochevar after they failed miserably in the rotation. The Cardinals have done something similar with players earlier in their development. Guys like Gomber, Poncedeleon, and Hudson all profile to the back end of a rotation, but when they can blow it out for an inning or two, their stuff plays better. Hell, look at the difference between Mayers in the pen compared to starting. Eventually, one or two of them will have more value in the rotation, but as long as they have velocity and good control, they're usable for an inning or two, which is a damned sight better than paying $26 million per year to Cecil, Gregerson, and Holland, The Three ****sketeers.

should have fired him years ago. Way too stubborn. At least he’s fired now. Hell, I thought they’d fire him in the off season.

The other frustrating thing about all three of those guys...The Three ****sketeers, is they were coming of either down seasons or in the case of Holland coming off a late seaason implosion. Given the variance in retred releivers, I'm completely fine signing or trading cases of beer for these types of guys and seems like Joceketty did well doing exactly that. Key difference is they should be dumpster dives and not big money or legit assets given up. Even worse is they were supposed to be relied up and had/have the inerta of sunk cost money tied to them.

Or given an extension instead...

Old school is often still valid. Some of our best closers were failed starters.

Nationals brought in Holland in a tie game and the only out he recorded was a wild throw in which the umpire called out the runner for being outside the baseline when the ball didn't even hit him before he ultimately walked in the go ahead run on 4 pitches.

Carp is mashing “Pujols like”. The dude was completely lost for months this season. Despite that hole, he’s now in the conversation for NL MVP. Go figure. But, I like it.

His stats this season compare to some of the worst in Pujols' time in STL.

That shows how ridiculous Pujols was in his prime.

no shit. Pujols was amazing when he was here.

Pujols had the best 11 years of any baseball player, ever. No one was better. Not Ruth, Mantle, Musial, no one. Any comparison to that will always fail in comparison.

Where’s the Royals game day thread?

Guess morale has declined since they took 2/3 from us in St.Louis.

Why did they call up Wisdom? Has he stopped being a strike out machine?