Quote:
Originally Posted by Saul Good
I'm on board. With him, we would have to be solid favorites to win the division again.
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I like Kennedy a lot as well and yeah, that sparkly K/9 jumps out.
One caveat, though. Some guys will have slightly inflated K/9 figures because they have a tendency to give up a few more baserunners (more PAs against means more chances at a K). It's why K% has become more popular of late - it doesn't 'penalize' guys for getting outs.
Lincecum was the first example of this that I really noticed. In 2012 his K/9 was almost exactly the same as his stellar 2011 season (in fact, it was a little better). His K% dropped by 1.5 points (about 5%); the reason was that he was facing more batters.
Kennedy is a bit like that; his K/9 is elite but his K% is merely good. The explanation for that is pretty straightforward when you see the 1.3 WHIP he had last season. Worse still, when you look at his K% and combine it with his xFIP, you see a very very interesting similar profile in 2015: James Shields.
If you consider the possible effect of a move to the AL and the fact that he won't get to strike out the pitcher anymore (thus inflating that figure a little as well), you suddenly wonder if maybe he wouldn't experience a bit of a reverse Shields in coming to KC. When Shields went KC to SD his K% skyrocketed (an amazing 6 points, damn near a full 1/3 better). I don't think Kennedy's would fall nearly that hard, but if it fell 1/2 that far, 3 points to say 21%, he's around guys like Hector Santiago and Jose Quintana. Probably not coincidentally, his WHIP is right around those guys same figures.
He's still a nice pitcher at that point, but I think there's a little fools gold in his numbers. I was really hoping the Pads wouldn't slap that QO on him. If you're stuck needing to go to $17 million/season on him and giving up a pick, I think it's a pretty tough call.