*** Official 2016 Royals Offseason Repository ***

[duncan_idaho]

Well, folks, it has happened. The Royals stand triumphant, atop the heap of MLB.

In this thread, we'll track the action as Dayton Moore continues The Process and attempts to defend the long-awaited title.

Before we get to the meet of it, let's take a minute to reflect ... and say "I'm Sorry" to Dayton Moore.

We gave you hell. Many of us called for your head. But you were right. You got it done. Congratulations. Mea culpa.

Now, let's talk about the offseason:

LINK TO 2016-18 PAYROLL INFO COURTESY OF ROYALS REVIEW

The Royals will have a few priorities: Corner OF (x2) and 1 SP, IMO. The rest of the core is solid and will need little tweaking. Looking at the increase in ticket sales, merchandising, concessions, parking, etc., I think it's fair to assume the Royals GROSSED $100 million more this season, or close to it. That gives Glass and Dayton Moore much more flexibility on payroll for 2016 (hopefully).

First order of business will be gauging the Alex Gordon market. If he can be resigned for 4-5 years at around $75-80 million total, it would be hard for KC to pass on that. He's still an above-average corner OF bat, and the Royals will need to bring in at least one proven guy to play in a corner if Gordon walks... and the whole market looks a lot like Alex - guys in their early 30s looking for huge, final contracts.

Second order of business: Make a decision on Zobrist. It sounds like KC will pursue him aggressively. At 34, he's at risk of declining in a big way after a few years. If they could find someone to take on Omar Infante for eating 1/2 of his deal, that would be a great start to things.

If they decide not to spend on Zobrist, KC will need to cobble together some sort of plan for 2B/RF that involves some cheaper options like Orlando, Colon, Dyson, etc.

I could see them deciding his ability to provide great insurance at either 2B or in RF is worth the risk.

Third order of business: Add depth to the rotation with a FA SP. Duffy, Ventura, Volquez and Medlen are locks for 4 spots, it seems. Kyle Zimmer may finally be ready to make a MLB impact, but his innings will be limited. That means KC needs insurance. Will it kill two birds with one stone (and insure against Duffy/Ventura regression) by signing a more top-tier guy? Or does Moore look to Chris Young/someone like him for this depth?

Personally, I think Mike Leake would be a great fit with KC's defense and park, and I know Moore has long coveted him. He's still young - just 28 - and has succeeded in bandbox Cincinnati for years.

Ian Kennedy, Mat Latos, Marco Estrada, and Justin Masterson are some other names that may pique interest (a little further down the list).

Other than that, I don't think KC makes any major moves. Greg Holland will be interesting to observe, as they have one more year of control of him, and he will obviously miss all of that season. I wouldn't be surprised to see a pre-arbitration deal that pays him something like $15 million over the next two seasons, and I wouldn't be surprised to see him turned loose, period.

The bullpen will rest upon Wade Davis/Herrera/Hochevar, filling in pieces around them. Bringing Madson back wouldn't be a surprise, but he could get a big deal from another team that is willing to pay him as their top setup guy or even their closer.

I think the biggest prospects to watch in Spring Training will be:

1) Kyle Zimmer. The hype has built, died down, built again, etc. If he's healthy, he's filthy and a potential ToR arm. But what does he look like in ST, and how many innings can you reasonably expect from him if he does earn a rotation spot? It seems like 120-130 innings would be his limit unless they really stretch (or unless he has a lot of hidden innings from simulated games/extended spring training, which might push him to 150-160).

Having another cheap, home-grown pitcher would be a significant boon for this team as it tries to extend the competitive window (and potentially give KC a strong 1-2 to build its rotation around in Zimmer and Ventura)

2) Bubba Starling. I'm trying to remain skeptical, but I like what I hear about Bubba from this season, and the performance has picked up. If KC does not sign someone to fill the RF slot, I think that's a strong indication KC's front office believes Starling will be ready to contribute in 2016.

Dayton Moore has long said that when Starling's light flips on, it will happen quickly and burn brightly. Time will tell.

After his STRONG Arizona Fall League Performance, he shot up my prospect chart.

3) Miguel Almonte. His late-season stint out of the KC bullpen went poorly, but Almonte has a plus-plus changeup, a good fastball, and a decent curve ball. He may be the dark horse in the rotation competition, and unlike Zimmer, he's set up to pitch a full 180 inning season.

4) RA Mondesi. The only player to debut in the MLB World Series has incredible tools. He still needs to refine his game, but again... he may be KC's best cheap, plus alternative at a key position (2B). His defense would be a boon from Day 1, but he needs seasoning with the bat before he's asked to hold down 2B full time.

And, as always, here are the Prospects:

Duncan’s Top 20 for 2016:

Spoiler!

1. Raul Adalberto Mondesi, SS, BOTH: Tools, tools, tools. RA has tools galore. At his best, he’s an All-Star SS who plays elite D, hits 15-20 HR, swipes 40 bags, and is an ideal 1, 2 or 3 hitter. At his worst, I think he looks a lot like Alcides Escobar. Plate discipline is his biggest challenge at this point, but evaluators are confident that will come with time. Clear No. 1
2. Kyle Zimmer, RHP: He’s pitching again and staying healthy, which is nice. He’s pitcing out of the bullpen to build back his arm strength, which is less nice. But still has that high upside, just a lower floor now. Ideally, the team will use him as a bullpen weapon in September (because he has earned it) and then give him a chance to transition back to starting for 2016.
3. Bubba Starling, CF, RH: Starling has been up and down this year but put himself back on the map by greatly improving his K rate while also improving across the slash line as a hitter. His defense and baserunning are MLB ready; if Starling can work himself into a league average hitter, he can be a solid MLB regular who plays great D in CF while hitting 15 HR and swiping 20 bags.
4. Miguel Almonte, RHP: Still love the body, FB/CH combo. Results aren’t eye popping, but he’s still low enough and early enough in the development to prize those things over performance. Still a solid No. 3 starter upside, and just a year and some change away from potentially being ready to contribute at the MLB level.
5. Jorge Bonifacio, RF, RH: Emilio’s little brother got off to a horrible start in 2015 but has heated up as the season went on. He also is translating BP power to game power for the first time, with 15 HR just past the mid-way point of his season. Despite his disappointing 2014, he has a chance to build his way back into legit prospect status – and still is only 22. Next challenge for him should be Omaha, but that may wait for the start of the 2014 season.
6. Scott Blewett, RHP: Blewett has a nice two –pitch mix already and is off to a strong start. With his size (6-6) and a good fastball/curveball combo, Blewett could eventually turn into a good No. 3 starter, with a MLB-average changeup.
7. Nolan Watson, RHP: The Royals’ 2015 sandwich pick is a polished prep arm who is adding velocity and explosiveness to a good, polished base. Likely to move quickly.
8. Ashe Russell, RHP: The 2015 top pick probably needs more work than Watson, but the upside is really nice. Again, advanced two-pitch mix that will depend on him adding a changeup. Could be a very good NO. 2 if it all adds up.
9. Balbino Fuenmayor, 1B/DH, RH: The Balbino came out of basically nowhere in 2015 to earn a Futures Game spot. Big power and an improved two-strike approach have turned the late bloomer into a legit prospect. He’s blocked at the MLB level currently by Eric Hosmer and Kendrys Morales, but Fuenmayor’s combination of power hitting and good average/strike zone control makes him intriguing.
10. Cheslor Cuthbert, 3B, RH: Cheslor probably is not going to be the star KC was hoping for when signing him out of Nicaragua, but he does look like he can be a solid reserve for an MLB club. Good defense at 3B paired with a solid plate approach and some gap power plays fine off the bench. He becomes a lot more interesting if they think he can stick as a 2B, which they have experimented with.

Spoiler!

11. Chase Vallot, C/DH/1B: I really like Vallot’s power and plate discipline combo. His bat will probably force him from behind the plate, but he’s held his own despite being extremely young for every level he has faced.
12. Alfredo Escalera-Maldonado, OF, RH: Escalera-Maldonado earned a promotion to Wilmington at age 20, which is pretty advanced movement for that age. He’s an athletic outfielder who has shown some plate discipline at an early age, which is encouraging. Doesn’t sound like he can stick in CF long term for KC, but his bat has become one to watch.
13. Pedro Fernandez, RHP: I haven’t seen much of him, but like the reports I’ve heard on his fastball and general makeup. Could become the next Almonte/Mondesi, though he’s more likely to land in the pen than either of them.
14. Elier Hernandez, OF, RH: Elier Hernanez teamed with Escalera-Maldonado in breaking out at Low-A and earning a promotion to Wilmington. It’s still early for this guy – he is just 20 years old – but he doesn’t take walks and hasn’t developed the prodigious power many thought he had the potential for. Still worth watching.
15. Hunter Dozier, 3B, RH: Dozier is reworking his swing mid-season, which generally will cause production to do what his has done: Nose dive. The changes he made entering the season (seemingly geared towards increasing his power production) were a disaster, and now he’s trying to get back to what he used to be. Still looks great and checks most of the scouting boxes, but the performance hasn’t matched, and it almost knocked him out of the list.
16. Christian Binford, RHP: After a breakthrough 2014, Binford struggled mightily at AAA and suffered a demotion. His upside remains similar – a back-end starter who can eat innings – but Binford’s lack of velocity and reliance on command have caught up to him so far.
17. Marten Gasparini, OF, SH: Gasparini is intriguing because of his speed and athleticism. He’s a LOOOOONG ways from the majors and young for his level, but reports on his bat speed, swing, and speed remain positive enough to keep him on the bubble.
18. Eric Skoglund, LHP: Skoglund had a nice year at Wilmington. I'm skeptical because his K rate is lower than I like to see for a guy at A+ - just 7/9, and usually guys lose a strikeout or two/9 as they move up the chain from there - but he has excellent control, walking 1.17 batters/9. 6-7 lefties with great control who get lots of ground balls - like Skoglund - have a chance to overcome bad K rates.
19. Ryan O'Hearn, 1B/LF: A lefty stick with power, O'Hearn was a savings signing as an 8th round pick, but a change in his approach increased his power - while increasing his K rate. After Vallot, probably the best pure power prospect in the Royals system.
20. Josh Staumont, RHP: I was terrified of this guy's control problems, and he walked nearly a batter an inning in his pro debut (32 BB in 40 1/3 IP). Staumont's nasty, nasty stuff (plus-plus fastball, plus slider) could make him a very good late-inning reliever who strikes out more than a batter an inning, if he can develop average or slightly below-average control. If he really masters the control, you're talking about a potential Greg Holland type, but that's a TALL task.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Anyong Bluth

He's just trolling. Asshat also thinks the Royals should trade Colon to the White Sox.

It's Discuss Thrower - he's probably just that stupid.

[ROYC75]

I felt all along Gordo was using the other teams to drive up the Royals price. I just felt he wanted to stay here all along.

You can't blame him for getting all he can, it's the norm.

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Possibly - but were the Royals at risk of falling below 88 wins?

I guess the marginal win shares argument doesn't really apply unless you think that Starling would've been ready this year or next. You kinda need Dyson to start in RF already, don't you? You'd have been left with some pretty iffy options in the other corner had Gordon not returned.

It's just a long way of saying that the $8.4/share 'blanket' analysis is largely worthless. There's pretty much one situation where I think it makes sense - where a team is sitting right below the fringe of playoff caliber and have an organizational gap in the hole they're filling. At that point you could consider 'market' price a fair barometer. Otherwise there is just way too much stuff to consider.

I don't think you can expect 88 wins with a lineup of Escobar, Cain, Hosmer, Morales, Moose, Perez, Orlando, Infante, Dyson.

[Anyong Bluth]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Congrats to you guys on keeping a homegrown star.

Thanks.

[ChiefsCountry]

Royals seem to be hoping on the Ian Kennedy bandwagon. Welcome aboard to Duncan and me's train on that guy.

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

Royals seem to be hoping on the Ian Kennedy bandwagon. Welcome aboard to Duncan and me's train on that guy.

I'm on board. With him, we would have to be solid favorites to win the division again.

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

Royals seem to be hoping on the Ian Kennedy bandwagon. Welcome aboard to Duncan and me's train on that guy.

Duncan has been splooging to that guy for years. I've never seen him pitch, but his numbers are really stout. Gopher balls less of a problem here anyway.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

I don't think you can expect 88 wins with a lineup of Escobar, Cain, Hosmer, Morales, Moose, Perez, Orlando, Infante, Dyson.

Truth be told, I didn't expect it out of the lineup you had yet you guys pretty much led wire to wire.

Do you expect regression from some of those guys? I mean ultimately you won 95 games while getting 3 WAR out of Alex. If you do, why? Most of them are in/entering their primes. And shit, Infante almost can't be as bad as he was last year.

I guess 4 wins worth of regression isn't really that unheard of, but if a 95 win team that's only losing 1 impact player from the roster would be suddenly considered a 'fringe' playoff team, that pretty much makes every team in baseball fringe level.

At that point don't you just subscribe to the tossup model and say it's all just one wild ass guess anyway?

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Truth be told, I didn't expect it out of the lineup you had yet you guys pretty much led wire to wire.

Do you expect regression from some of those guys? I mean ultimately you won 95 games while getting 3 WAR out of Alex. If you do, why? Most of them are in/entering their primes. And shit, Infante almost can't be as bad as he was last year.

I guess 4 wins worth of regression isn't really that unheard of, but if a 95 win team that's only losing 1 impact player from the roster would be suddenly considered a 'fringe' playoff team, that pretty much makes every team in baseball fringe level.

At that point don't you just subscribe to the tossup model and say it's all just one wild ass guess anyway?

Replacing Gordon, Rios, and Zobrist with Dyson, Orlando, and Infante is a huge hit to a third of our lineup.

[KevB]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

Replacing Gordon, Rios, and Zobrist with Dyson, Orlando, and Infante is a huge hit to a third of our lineup.

Infante for Zobrist is the only hit, albeit a big one. We'd have won the division without Zobrist, but we wouldn't have won the WS. Same goes for Cueto frankly.

[Saul Good]

Originally Posted by KevB

Infante for Zobrist is the only hit, albeit a big one. We'd have won the division without Zobrist, but we wouldn't have won the WS. Same goes for Cueto frankly.

Orlando for Gordon would be a huge hit as well.

[KevB]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

Truth be told, I didn't expect it out of the lineup you had yet you guys pretty much led wire to wire.

Do you expect regression from some of those guys? I mean ultimately you won 95 games while getting 3 WAR out of Alex. If you do, why? Most of them are in/entering their primes. And shit, Infante almost can't be as bad as he was last year.

I guess 4 wins worth of regression isn't really that unheard of, but if a 95 win team that's only losing 1 impact player from the roster would be suddenly considered a 'fringe' playoff team, that pretty much makes every team in baseball fringe level.

At that point don't you just subscribe to the tossup model and say it's all just one wild ass guess anyway?

I'm more concerned with the pitching staff, namely Herrera and Davis. Lot of miles on those guys the last two seasons going deep into the playoffs. They paid Soria to help shoulder some of that load, so that should help. But he's basically just taking Madson's place. And while Holland wasn't terribly effective, he took on some of those late game innings in 2015 as well.

[BigMeatballDave]

Originally Posted by ChiefsCountry

Royals seem to be hoping on the Ian Kennedy bandwagon. Welcome aboard to Duncan and me's train on that guy.

That is some solid grammar.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by Saul Good

I'm on board. With him, we would have to be solid favorites to win the division again.

I like Kennedy a lot as well and yeah, that sparkly K/9 jumps out.

One caveat, though. Some guys will have slightly inflated K/9 figures because they have a tendency to give up a few more baserunners (more PAs against means more chances at a K). It's why K% has become more popular of late - it doesn't 'penalize' guys for getting outs.

Lincecum was the first example of this that I really noticed. In 2012 his K/9 was almost exactly the same as his stellar 2011 season (in fact, it was a little better). His K% dropped by 1.5 points (about 5%); the reason was that he was facing more batters.

Kennedy is a bit like that; his K/9 is elite but his K% is merely good. The explanation for that is pretty straightforward when you see the 1.3 WHIP he had last season. Worse still, when you look at his K% and combine it with his xFIP, you see a very very interesting similar profile in 2015: James Shields.

If you consider the possible effect of a move to the AL and the fact that he won't get to strike out the pitcher anymore (thus inflating that figure a little as well), you suddenly wonder if maybe he wouldn't experience a bit of a reverse Shields in coming to KC. When Shields went KC to SD his K% skyrocketed (an amazing 6 points, damn near a full 1/3 better). I don't think Kennedy's would fall nearly that hard, but if it fell 1/2 that far, 3 points to say 21%, he's around guys like Hector Santiago and Jose Quintana. Probably not coincidentally, his WHIP is right around those guys same figures.

He's still a nice pitcher at that point, but I think there's a little fools gold in his numbers. I was really hoping the Pads wouldn't slap that QO on him. If you're stuck needing to go to $17 million/season on him and giving up a pick, I think it's a pretty tough call.

[BWillie]

Would rather have Gallardo than Kennedy, but won't complain too much about either.