Quote:
Originally Posted by AustinChief
That is all I was saying. That is why I put forth a scenario then asked a question. I am not really interested in defending the scenario itself, even though I have just now.
I am interested in the answer IF it played out as I put forth.
I will ask again...
What if the following scenario played out...
On Monday a significant number of doctors nationwide start prescribing HCQ+azithromycin to patients in hospital who have tested positive for Covid-19 (those who are severe/critical).
Our supplies of both hold up (this is actually likely given how readily available both are) The US also ramps up production (and taps into strategic stockpiles and military supplies) to meet any upcoming need.
After 6 days, 80%+ of all treated people are virus free.
At what point would you support lifting all the mandated restrictions and just issuing advisories and continuing Federal support for testing and recovery (both economic and medical)?
If this plays out, I can not see ANY excuse for not lifting restrictions by April 1.
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As I understand it, the shutdown has two goals.
1. In the short term, we don't want a flood of patients in hospitals that will overwhelm the system and cause a number of preventable deaths.
2. It may possibly prevent some people from getting the illness, though my perception is that there's an air of inevitability here, that it won't prevent illness but rather will spread out the impact.
So let's ignore #2 and concentrate on #1.
There are two ways to keep the system from being overwhelmed. You can have fewer patients coming (via the shutdown) or you can have patients get cured and leave faster (via medication and treatment), or hopefully both. So you just have to run the numbers and if you have both weapons there'll be a spot where you no longer need the shutdown.
In fact, if the medication is extremely effective, you could conceivably not need the shutdown at all.
One wildcard, though, is that we're assuming at this point that the shutdown will keep the system from being overwhelmed, and we don't know if that's true. It's possible that the shutdown and a magic medication would still not be sufficient to keep the system from getting overwhelmed. But regardless, we know that the world will be better with both.