***NON-POLITICAL COVID-19 Discussion Thread***

[JakeF]

A couple of reminders...

Originally Posted by Bwana

Once again, don't come in this thread with some kind of political agenda, or you will be shown the door. If you want to go that route, there is a thread about this in DC.

Originally Posted by Dartgod

People, there is a lot of good information in this thread, let's try to keep the petty bickering to a minimum.

We all have varying opinions about the impact of this, the numbers, etc. We will all never agree with each other. But we can all keep it civil.

Thanks!

Click here for the original OP:

Spoiler!

Apparently the CoronaVirus can survive on a inanimate objects, such as door knobs, for 9 days.

California coronavirus case could be first spread within U.S. community, CDC says
By SOUMYA KARLAMANGLA, JACLYN COSGROVE
FEB. 26, 2020 8:04 PM

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is investigating what could be the first case of novel coronavirus in the United States involving a patient in California who neither recently traveled out of the country nor was in contact with someone who did.

“At this time, the patient’s exposure is unknown. It’s possible this could be an instance of community spread of COVID-19, which would be the first time this has happened in the United States,” the CDC said in a statement. “Community spread means spread of an illness for which the source of infection is unknown. It’s also possible, however, that the patient may have been exposed to a returned traveler who was infected.”

The individual is a resident of Solano County and is receiving medical care in Sacramento County, according to the state Department of Public Health.

The CDC said the “case was detected through the U.S. public health system — picked up by astute clinicians.”

Officials at UC Davis Medical Center expanded on what the federal agency might have meant by that in an email sent Wednesday, as reported by the Davis Enterprise newspaper.

The patient arrived at UC Davis Medical Center from another hospital Feb. 19 and “had already been intubated, was on a ventilator, and given droplet protection orders because of an undiagnosed and suspected viral condition,” according to an email sent by UC Davis officials that was obtained by the Davis Enterprise.

The staff at UC Davis requested COVID-19 testing by the CDC, but because the patient didn’t fit the CDC’s existing criteria for the virus, a test wasn’t immediately administered, according to the email. The CDC then ordered the test Sunday, and results were announced Wednesday. Hospital administrators reportedly said in the email that despite these issues, there has been minimal exposure at the hospital because of safety protocols they have in place.

A UC Davis Health spokesperson declined Wednesday evening to share the email with The Times.

Since Feb. 2, more than 8,400 returning travelers from China have entered California, according to the state health department. They have been advised to self-quarantine for 14 days and limit interactions with others as much as possible, officials said.

“This is a new virus, and while we are still learning about it, there is a lot we already know,” Dr. Sonia Angell, director of the California Department of Public Health, said in a statement. “We have been anticipating the potential for such a case in the U.S., and given our close familial, social and business relationships with China, it is not unexpected that the first case in the U.S. would be in California.”

It is not clear how the person became infected, but public health workers could not identify any contacts with people who had traveled to China or other areas where the virus is widespread. That raises concern that the virus is spreading in the United States, creating a challenge for public health officials, experts say.

“It’s the first signal that we could be having silent transmission in the community,” said Lawrence Gostin, director of the World Health Organization Collaborating Center on National and Global Health Law. “It probably means there are many more cases out there, and it probably means this individual has infected others, and now it’s a race to try to find out who that person has infected.”

On Tuesday, the CDC offered its most serious warning to date that the United States should expect and prepare for the coronavirus to become a more widespread health issue.

“Ultimately, we expect we will see coronavirus spread in this country,” said Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases. “It’s not so much a question of if, but a question of when.”

According to the CDC’s latest count Wednesday morning, 59 U.S. residents have tested positive for the new strain of coronavirus — 42 of whom are repatriated citizens from a Diamond Princess cruise. That number has grown by two since Messonnier’s last count Tuesday, although the CDC was not immediately available to offer details on the additional cases.

More than 82,000 cases of coronavirus have been reported globally, and more than 2,700 people have died, with the majority in mainland China, the epicenter of the outbreak.

But public health leaders have repeatedly reminded residents that the health risk from the novel coronavirus to the general public remains low.

“While COVID-19 has a high transmission rate, it has a low mortality rate,” the state Department of Public Health said in a statement Wednesday. “From the international data we have, of those who have tested positive for COVID-19, approximately 80% do not exhibit symptoms that would require hospitalization. There have been no confirmed deaths related to COVID-19 in the United States to date.”

CDC officials have also warned that although the virus is likely to spread in U.S. communities, the flu still poses a greater risk.

Gostin said the news of potential silent transmission does not eliminate the possibility of containing the virus in the U.S. and preventing an outbreak.

“There are few enough cases that we should at least try,” he said. “Most of us are not optimistic that that will be successful, but we’re still in the position to try.”

[eDave]

Originally Posted by oaklandhater

Parks in Phoenix area, rest of Arizona experiencing overcrowdinghttps://t.co/HlcJgUTp6N pic.twitter.com/8OjtmUO6DX

— azfamily 3TV CBS 5 (@azfamily) March 21, 2020

Camelback. It was packed. All the mountains around town were.

[Fish]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

I had an in depth conversation about this 3 days ago. I come from a family of pharmacists/medical professionals in case you are wondering, I didn't just call up some random person.

Just pointing out that your claim of "Ask any competent pharmacist" claim was pretty easily refuted since you were directly interacting with one. There's already known issues with it. It's currently classified as having no safe dosage. That doesn't mean it can't be useful. But we currently don't know for sure how its use for this specific virus will do in the long term in the slightest. It shows potential. That's a good thing. But we can't just go and base national recovery measures on the what-ifs of this. Let's try it, sure.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Fish

It shows potential. That's a good thing. But we can't just go and base national recovery measures on the what-ifs of this. Let's try it, sure.

That is all I was saying. That is why I put forth a scenario then asked a question. I am not really interested in defending the scenario itself, even though I have just now.

I am interested in the answer IF it played out as I put forth.

I will ask again...

What if the following scenario played out...

On Monday a significant number of doctors nationwide start prescribing HCQ+azithromycin to patients in hospital who have tested positive for Covid-19 (those who are severe/critical).

Our supplies of both hold up (this is actually likely given how readily available both are) The US also ramps up production (and taps into strategic stockpiles and military supplies) to meet any upcoming need.

After 6 days, 80%+ of all treated people are virus free.

At what point would you support lifting all the mandated restrictions and just issuing advisories and continuing Federal support for testing and recovery (both economic and medical)?

If this plays out, I can not see ANY excuse for not lifting restrictions by April 1.

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

That risk is still ridiculously small.

I sincerely hope you are wrong. For the sake of argument let's say it is limited to inpatient care use only. Now, let's say it has 80% effectiveness in a 6 day span. At that point ,given that supply is not an issue, and it should not be at that point in time or slightly beyond, would you be ok with business as usual (with certain conditions that I pointed out) starting April 1st?

If not why not?

I'm not sure how to answer that.

The research study was simply analyzing viral load on nasal swabs after treatment. It didnt look at outcomes in treatment for sick patients.

Also, CCUs across the world are using those meds, and people are still dying.

I don't see any way we are at business as usual April 1.

[Discuss Thrower]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

That is all I was saying. That is why I put forth a scenario then asked a question. I am not really interested in defending the scenario itself, even though I have just now.

I am interested in the answer IF it played out as I put forth.

I will ask again...

What if the following scenario played out...

On Monday a significant number of doctors nationwide start prescribing HCQ+azithromycin to patients in hospital who have tested positive for Covid-19 (those who are severe/critical).

Our supplies of both hold up (this is actually likely given how readily available both are) The US also ramps up production (and taps into strategic stockpiles and military supplies) to meet any upcoming need.

After 6 days, 80%+ of all treated people are virus free.

At what point would you support lifting all the mandated restrictions and just issuing advisories and continuing Federal support for testing and recovery (both economic and medical)?

If this plays out, I can not see ANY excuse for not lifting restrictions by April 1.

There's probably a marginal decrease in critical cases but not enough to keep hospitals from being butt****ed.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by SupDock

I'm not sure how to answer that.

The research study was simply analyzing viral load on nasal swabs after treatment. It didnt look at outcomes in treatment for sick patients.

Also, CCUs across the world are using those meds, and people are still dying.

I don't see any way we are at business as usual April 1.

Treatment with that exact combination and specific dosage(standard z-pak and 200mg tid is actually a recent development. I can't imagine there has been a significant number of doctors using it for the minimum of 5 days that are required to see results.

[Discuss Thrower]

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. pumped more than $1 billion into two of its prime money-market portfolios as investors pulled funds during one of Wall Street’s most volatile weeks.

The bank bought $722.4 million in assets from its Goldman Sachs Financial Square Money Market Fund last week and another $301.2 million from its Goldman Sachs Financial Square Prime Obligations Fund, according to two filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission late Friday. Combined net withdrawals exceeded $8 billion.

The purchases increased the funds’ weekly liquid assets to 42% from 34% for the first product, and to 49% from 44% for the latter. As of the market close Friday, the WLA levels were 46% and 50%, respectively.

Tick. Tock. Tick. Tock.

[RINGLEADER]

Originally Posted by PAChiefsGuy

A New York surgeon has already said that hospitals will be overwhelmed soon and that healthcare workers are at serious risk. Could you imagine what it would be like if everyone was out there working and partying right now?

I think your notion that it is not a foregone conclusion that hospitals wouldnt be overrun if the at risk were self quarantined and everyone went about their business like this virus isnt extremely contagious is a little too optimistic for my taste.

Here's a link to the article with the surgeon warning about the risks of hospital problems.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/med...ys/ar-BB11wbhk

Been beating the drum — if they can lock down and prevent the spread to date combined with the idea of using one ventilator to sustain two patients then they may be able to avoid the worst-case. But all these cities have to get people locked down.

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Discuss Thrower

There's probably a marginal decrease in critical cases but not enough to keep hospitals from being butt****ed.

Um, the scenario specifically states that 80% of those treated would be virus free (for testing purposes) after 6 days. Suspend disbelief and say that the scenario plays out exactly like that. So, you decrease severe/critical cases by 80% and have a proven treatment... when do you release govt restrictions?

[Fish]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

That is all I was saying. That is why I put forth a scenario then asked a question. I am not really interested in defending the scenario itself, even though I have just now.

I am interested in the answer IF it played out as I put forth.

I will ask again...

What if the following scenario played out...

On Monday a significant number of doctors nationwide start prescribing HCQ+azithromycin to patients in hospital who have tested positive for Covid-19 (those who are severe/critical).

Our supplies of both hold up (this is actually likely given how readily available both are) The US also ramps up production (and taps into strategic stockpiles and military supplies) to meet any upcoming need.

After 6 days, 80%+ of all treated people are virus free.

At what point would you support lifting all the mandated restrictions and just issuing advisories and continuing Federal support for testing and recovery (both economic and medical)?

If this plays out, I can not see ANY excuse for not lifting restrictions by April 1.

If your hypothetical scenario happened just like that, then sure lifting restrictions at that time doesn't seem unreasonable at all. But personally, I see zero chance of the scenario happening. I don't think supplies would hold up. I don't think production could be met. I don't think we should assume any percentage of what the results would be. That's ignoring the known negative effects and what that means for recommended treatment.

[Bearcat]

Originally Posted by 007

So how do you all feel about KC going shelter in place on Tuesday. I'm shocked that they are going to enforce it as a misdemeanor, fine, and jail time.

The ordinance itself is kind of ridiculously stated.... seems like they've set themselves up for a shit storm if they're actually going to enforce it beyond the non-essential business part or large gatherings in public spaces.

https://www.kcmo.gov/home/showdocument?id=4065

https://library.municode.com/mo/kans...PREMPOMAUNPREM

[AustinChief]

Originally Posted by Fish

If your hypothetical scenario happened just like that, then sure lifting restrictions at that time doesn't seem unreasonable at all. But personally, I see zero chance of the scenario happening. I don't think supplies would hold up. I don't think production could be met. I don't think we should assume any percentage of what the results would be. That's ignoring the known negative effects and what that means for recommended treatment.

Ok, this is the response I am looking for. This is a game of "what if"... it doesn't really matter if you think the scenario is complete bullshit.

[ThaVirus]

Originally Posted by BossChief

From 11:30pm on the 12th.

Are you ever not sucking your own dick?

[SupDock]

Originally Posted by AustinChief

Um, the scenario specifically states that 80% of those treated would be virus free (for testing purposes) after 6 days. Suspend disbelief and say that the scenario plays out exactly like that. So, you decrease severe/critical cases by 80% and have a proven treatment... when do you release govt restrictions?

They did the research studies because they noticed improved outcomes with the medications in China. If it cured (whatever that means) 80 percent of people, we would know about it.

I'm not trying to be a negative Nancy, the medication certainly has potential, but I don't think we see the effects you are taking about.

[007]

Originally Posted by Bearcat

The ordinance itself is kind of ridiculously stated.... seems like they've set themselves up for a shit storm if they're actually going to enforce it beyond the non-essential business part or large gatherings in public spaces.



https://www.kcmo.gov/home/showdocument?id=4065



https://library.municode.com/mo/kans...PREMPOMAUNPREM

Everyone will just say they are on the way to a grocery store