01-09-2023, 07:50 PM
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#11
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Would an idiot do that?
Join Date: Nov 2000
Location: Arizona
Casino cash: $-1035069
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Originally Posted by dlphg9
Kudos to you for admitting you don't know. 95% of the members here would take this moment to double down and keep saying the wrong thing.
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Yeah, like two months ago when he "disagreed" with the repeated explanations of how it works....
Spoiler!
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Originally Posted by JustDiqLix
Lol I don’t think you understand how to read this chart.
This chart says the most balanced teams in the NFL are the Eagles, Bills and Bengals. The best offensive EPA combined with meh defense is the Chiefs and Dolphins.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox
Balance would be indicated by teams on a diagonal from bottom left to top right. Teams closest to that line would have equally good (or bad) offense and defense.
The diagonals actually shown indicate tiers of team when offense and defense are considered together. It shows that the Chiefs ate the best team, followed by Bills and Eagles. The Chiefs offense is good enough to carry their meh defense.
Of course in a single game elimination playoff system, single game variations stack the odds strongly against any team taking it all. The Chiefs are the best, but their odds of winning the SB are only about 1:5.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustDiqLix
Yeah when you have the best offense in the league and only a slightly below average defense, you are in a great position to win in the playoffs. That’s common sense.
But what the chart tells you are the most balanced teams are the Eagles, Bills and Bengals.
On any EPA chart you want to look at the upper right quadrant. That’s how EPA x,y charts work.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustDiqLix
Correct.
That’s why the upper right quadrant are always the most balanced teams.
They combine the most efficient offenses with the most efficient defenses.
Lower right quadrant combines the most efficient offenses with less efficient defenses.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bearcat
Yeah, so "balance" doesn't really matter on that chart, as cdcox said. The far right diagonal/tier are of course the best teams, and the further right you go, the better, since offense is more predictable (and important, obviously) than defense. Teams can be anywhere on that Bills/Bengals/Eagles diagonal and they're considered the same.
Or to put it another way, the Browns and Jets are the same, just for different reasons.
The Chiefs being almost to the next diagonal means they're better than everyone else. Yeah, hang your hat on "balance", but that chart is literally saying where the Bills/Bengals/Eagles are at on offense and defense doesn't matter because the Chiefs offense more than makes up for their defense.
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The grey tier lines create comparisons across teams. Teams on the same line are "equal" and expected to perform similarly on a forward looking basis. Because offensive performance is more predictive than defensive performance, these lines have a slope greater than 1 (1.6).
The tiers themselves represent the historical distribution of teams against the league average (median). For instance, a team at the "p90" line would be better than 90% of teams in any given year.
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https://www.nfeloapp.com/nfl-power-r...nfl-epa-tiers/ |
Quote:
Originally Posted by JustDiqLix
Tl;dr - Because offensive performance is more predictive of success, the Chiefs being at the highest offensive EPA means they’re the best.
I respect your opinion but I disagree. If that was the case, there would be no point in the chart. Just put a list of the top offensive EPA teams and ignore the defensive rankings.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustDiqLix
As I said, the most balanced teams in the league are the Bills and Eagles. The chart showed this too.
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