Quote:
Originally Posted by BWillie
Can anyone point me to any math of the expected points gained per punt return for a fair catch, a return and a not even fielded punt? If it causes a turnover every 5%-7% of plays I dont get why teams try to return it. Thesedays almost nobody is doing a good job of getting alot of yards on punt returns. Special teams coverage is more solved than ever. I feel like unless you are behind in a football game the strategy may be to not even have someone field the thing but Ive never seen math done. Not just rhe avg return...it needs to take into account the turnover rate as well.
|
From what I could find, historically you have about a 1.5% chance of losing a fumbled punt. So on average you probably lose 1-2 a year, which seems about right. I don't have the math in front of me, but I imagine the loss of yards by never attempting to catch a ball would outweigh 1-2 possessions a year, especially inside the 20.