Thread: Chiefs Haley gambled to win
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Old 10-11-2010, 12:10 PM   #2
DeezNutz DeezNutz is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdcox View Post
One thing I would point out is that the "unconventional 4th down call" is actually statistically the right move. It has a higher value of expected points. (Caveat -- I haven't checked this particular down-distance-field position scenario).

Sometimes the conservative move is just plain wrong. If you are saving money for retirement, putting all of your money in a savings account at the age of 20 is just a plain wrong move, even though it looks "conservative". Similarly if you automatically take the 3 points in that situation, when the expected value of going for it on fourth down is higher (say 4 points), then it is actually a decision that has a negative impact on winning, even though it is "conservative".
Great points.
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