ESPN insider McShay's Mock

[L.A. Chieffan]

More Okung. Berry to 7




Originally Published: February 10, 2010
O-line and D-line take over top 10
Updated top 10 includes only one skill player and one defensive back
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McShay By Todd McShay
ESPN.com
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Much has been made of the strength of the 2010 defensive tackle class, and the fact that the first two picks in Scouts Inc.'s latest first-round projection are defensive tackles is no surprise.

However, the offensive tackles are coming on strong, and we now project four offensive tackles to come off the board in the first eight picks. Add a pair of defensive ends to the players mentioned above, and you have eight linemen among the first 10 picks.

That leaves little room at the top for skill players and defensive backs, and some of the biggest names on our board have slipped significantly in our latest projection.

Here's how we see things shaking out now that the college all-star games are over and prospects are preparing for the upcoming NFL combine.


St. Louis Rams

Record: 1-15
Gerald McCoy*, DT, Oklahoma

The Rams have a poor track record when it comes to drafting defensive linemen early, and now they have a tough choice to make between the stronger, more instinctive Ndamukong Suh and the quicker, more disruptive McCoy. Coach Steve Spagnuolo is looking for defensive linemen who can penetrate, which is why we think McCoy could be the top overall pick.
Detroit Lions

Record: 2-14
Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska

The Lions will gladly take Suh here. He won't provide the pass-rush production of McCoy, but he is a force versus the run and he consistently disrupts passing windows thanks to his excellent instincts and long arms.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Record: 3-13
Jason Pierre-Paul*, DE, South Florida

The Bucs will consider Tennessee S Eric Berry here, but they are in dire need of a speed rusher and Pierre-Paul is the most explosive one this draft class has to offer.
Washington Redskins

Record: 4-12
Anthony Davis*, OT, Rutgers

Oklahoma QB Sam Bradford has enough physical and mental tools to develop into a good NFL starter eventually. However, he also enters the league with enough question marks (shoulder injury, spread offensive system, etc.) for a team like the Redskins to pass and fill one of several other holes. Solidifying its offensive line should be Washington's top priority, and Davis is the most naturally gifted tackle in this year's deep group. Two other options at tackle are Russell Okung (Oklahoma State) and Bryan Bulaga (Iowa).
Kansas City Chiefs

Record: 4-12
Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State

Berry could make a huge impact in the Chiefs' secondary as well, but Kansas City has too much work still to do at core positions to spend No. 5 money on a safety. The offensive line needs to be solidified, and that could happen by bringing in Okung, who has a quick first step, good power and a mean streak.
Seattle Seahawks

Record: 5-11
Bryan Bulaga*, OT, Iowa

Look for Seattle to pass on a quarterback in the top 10 for the second straight year. Finding a replacement for Walter Jones at left tackle is the more immediate need, and the team will get a safer prospect there than at quarterback. Bulaga still has room to improve in pass protection, but he displays the feet and balance to develop into a very good overall starting left tackle in the NFL.
Cleveland Browns

Record: 5-11
Eric Berry*, S, Tennessee

Oklahoma State WR Dez Bryant will be tough to pass up here, but the Browns did spend a pair of second-round picks on WRs Brian Robiskie and Mohamed Massaquoi last year. Berry has the talent and experience to make the kind of impact for the Browns that perennial Pro Bowler Ed Reed made for the Ravens early in his career.
Oakland Raiders

Record: 5-11
Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma

Considering the team has used high draft picks on a quarterback (JaMarcus Russell), running back (Darren McFadden) and wide receiver (Darrius Heyward-Bey) in recent years, it would make sense to shift the focus to the offensive line this April. Both of the Raiders' starting offensive tackles (Mario Henderson and Cornell Green) are below average, and Williams has the physical tools and toughness to provide an upgrade at one of those two spots immediately.
Buffalo Bills

Record: 6-11
Sam Bradford*, QB, Oklahoma

Offensive tackle and quarterback are chief among the Bills' needs, and they should draft a tackle if Davis, Okung or Bulaga is available. This scenario has them selecting the top quarterback prospect in the 2010 class, though. Bradford is a bit of a project because of his slight frame and the spread system he played in at Oklahoma, but he has the football intelligence and accuracy to be molded into a good starter in the NFL.
Jacksonville Jaguars**

Record: 7-9
Derrick Morgan*, DE, Georgia Tech

Morgan will not wow scouts with his results at the combine, but he is a high-motor, technically sound player who can pressure the quarterback and set the edge against the run. He has the physical tools to develop into a good every-down starter at the next level.
Denver Broncos** (from 7-9 Chicago)

Record: 6-7
Dez Bryant*, WR, Oklahoma State

Denver still has needs along its offensive and defensive fronts as well as in the secondary, but it will be tough to pass on the clear-cut No. 1 wideout in this year's class should Bryant fall to the Broncos.
Miami Dolphins

Record: 7-9
Rolando McClain*, ILB, Alabama

Bryant falling to No. 12 would be a dream scenario for the Dolphins, but if he is off the board, look for Miami to target a top talent in the defensive front seven. McClain is NFL-ready with the size, straight-line speed and work ethic to win a starting inside linebacker job immediately.
San Francisco 49ers

Record: 8-8
Joe Haden*, CB, Florida

The 49ers could go in several directions with this pick, including quarterback, offensive line or a pass-rusher, but they wouldn't go wrong taking a top-10 skill player like Haden at this spot.
Seattle Seahawks (from 8-8 Denver)

Record: 5-11
C.J. Spiller, RB, Clemson

Notre Dame QB Jimmy Clausen might be a possibility here, but we do not believe he's worthy of a first-round selection. After finding a left tackle at No. 6, it would make sense for the Seahawks to use this pick on a difference-maker like Spiller. Running backs generally are not worth drafting this high, but Spiller has additional value due to his home run ability as a receiver and return man.
New York Giants

Record: 8-8
Brian Price*, DT, UCLA

The Giants need to retool the middle of their defense, and Price would be a good player to start with. He possesses the quickness and power to develop into a disruptive playmaker who can get into opposing backfields.
San Francisco** (from 8-8 Carolina)

Record: 8-8
Mike Iupati, OT/G, Idaho

Iupati is a fast-rising guard/right tackle prospect who is strong and nasty and would fit in nicely with coach Mike Singletary's hard-nosed brand of football.
Tennessee Titans**

Record: 8-8
Carlos Dunlap*, DE, Florida

Dunlap is a bit immature and there are questions about his work ethic, but he also possesses a rare combination of size and athleticism for a defensive end. The Titans have enough veteran leadership on that side of the ball to pull the trigger here on a developmental project like Dunlap.
Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 9-7
Dan Williams, NT, Tennessee

The Steelers would like to use this pick on a top offensive line prospect like Iupati or Trent Williams, but with both off the board, they will avoid reaching for another offensive lineman. They also will avoid stretching for a tackle like Maryland's Bruce Campbell to go for value with Dan Williams, who has the size and strength to develop into the eventual replacement for NT Casey Hampton, who is set to become a free agent.
Atlanta Falcons**

Record: 9-7
Kareem Jackson*, CB, Alabama

The Falcons need to improve their secondary talent after getting shredded through the air this past season. Jackson is one of the most underrated prospects in the 2010 class, and has the size, agility and balance to hold up in bump-and-run coverage on the perimeter. Plus, Jackson's instincts and technique are outstanding, so he should be ready to play as a rookie despite leaving school a year early.
Houston Texans**

Record: 9-7
Earl Thomas*, S, Texas

Thomas is undersized but physical enough to play safety in the NFL if used properly. Regardless, he's one of the three most talented defensive backs in the 2010 class, and the Texans could use an upgrade at both free safety and cornerback, so Thomas is a fit no matter where he ends up playing.
Cincinnati Bengals

Record:10-6
Jermaine Gresham, TE, Oklahoma

The Bengals are likely to use an early-round selection on a tight end, and while Gresham is a risk due to knee injuries (torn left ACL in high school, season-ending cartilage damage to right knee in 2009), his combination of size and athleticism is rare and he can stretch the seam effectively.
New England Patriots

Record: 10-6
Brandon Graham, OLB, Michigan

Graham is a bit undersized to play a traditional defensive end role, and he does not have the ideal athleticism you want in an outside linebacker. If used properly, though, Graham can excel in the NFL, and he appears to be in Bill Belichick's wheelhouse with his nonstop motor, excellent technique and good overall football intelligence.
Green Bay Packers

Record: 11-5
Bruce Campbell*, OT, Maryland

Campbell will turn some heads with his performance at the combine. However, while he might have the best combination of physical tools in this year's offensive tackle class, we expect Campbell to slip to the bottom half of the first round due to injury concerns and below-average technique.
Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 11-5
Taylor Mays, S, USC

The Eagles need a replacement for the physical presence former defensive leader Brian Dawkins took with him when he left for Denver. Mays is a bit of a liability in deep coverage and he needs to learn to wrap up more consistently as a tackler, but it is hard to imagine a player with his combination of size, straight-line speed and explosive hitting falling out of the first round.
Baltimore Ravens

Record: 9-7
Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State

Wilson is a fast-rising prospect after showcasing his upper-echelon bump-and-run coverage skills at the Senior Bowl. A cornerback-needy team like the Ravens could easily pull the trigger on Wilson late in the first round.
Arizona Cardinals

Record: 10-6
Sergio Kindle, DE/OLB, Texas

Kindle is a bit overrated, but we do think he is worth a pick at this point in the first round. The Cardinals could put him to work as a situational edge rusher early in his career while he works on getting bigger and stronger in order to hold up better versus the run.
Dallas Cowboys

Record: 11-5
Nate Allen, S, South Florida

Allen is far from a first-round lock, but the Cowboys need to improve their athleticism at safety, and Allen has the right combination of speed and fluidity in coverage to help fix the problem.
San Diego Chargers

Record: 13-3
Jahvid Best*, RB, California

Best's draft stock could take a big hit depending on how the medical reports (back/neck, concussion) from the combine look. Assuming he checks out, Best likely will be high on the Chargers' board, along with Dan Williams, fellow RBs Ryan Mathews (Fresno State) and Jonathan Dwyer (Georgia Tech), and DT/DE Jared Odrick (Penn State). A healthy Best gets the nod thanks to his game-breaking speed.
New York Jets

Record: 9-7
Arrelious Benn*, WR, Illinois

The Jets need perimeter weapons for QB Mark Sanchez to throw to, and Benn is a better prospect than his 2009 production might indicate. He played through a nagging ankle injury and his quarterback was inconsistent, but Benn shows good initial burst and the ability to generate yards after the catch. Still, he needs to be more consistent catching the ball away from his body and must become a more savvy route runner.
Minnesota Vikings

Record: 12-4
Jared Odrick, DT, Penn State

The Vikings have proved they will take the best player available on the board, and in this scenario, Odrick fits the bill and would be groomed as an eventual replacement for aging DT Pat Williams. Other possibilities include Clausen, ILB Brandon Spikes (Florida), TE Anthony McCoy (USC) and C/G Maurkice Pouncey (Florida).
Indianapolis Colts

Record: 14-2
Maurkice Pouncey*, OL, Florida

Odrick would make sense if he was still on the board, or the Colts could reach for an athletic offensive tackle like USC's Charles Brown. But Pouncey is a gifted interior lineman with the quick feet, versatility and football intelligence to help the Colts solidify their interior offensive line.
New Orleans Saints

Record: 13-3
Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Missouri

Weatherspoon is expected to turn some heads at the combine with his speed, and we're hearing that some teams grade him out as a mid-first-round pick. We're not quite as high on Weatherspoon because we question his ability to play in space, but the Super Bowl champs are expected to focus on upgrading the speed and athleticism of their defense, and Weatherspoon fits the mold.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

That the biggest misconception is that their guys are always wide open. Go back and watch the Florida game again and the game he played this year before getting hurt. He was sqeezing the ball in tight spots, the WR's just couldn't hang on. I don't worry much about the spread, since the NFL uses it so much anyways.

The guy is accurate and I believe that's something you can't teach. Everything else he can learn.

You should be worried because he'll have to learn how to properly take center snaps and drop back.

You know what else you can't teach? Durability, this is a guy who never got hit and as soon as he got hit, he got hurt.

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by Mecca

And Joe Flacco pissed his pants in the playoffs, Mark Sanchez didn't. I'll be the first one to say I wouldn't have started Sanchez right away, he was a 1 year college starter, I didn't consider him a ready to go from day 1 prospect, so he's going to have growing pains, Matt Ryan for example started about almost 30 more games in college.

That's exactly why I wouldn't have taken him in the top-5...

I think the real issue here is that there really doesn't seem to be a whole lot to pick from at QB in the draft these days. Maybe that's the impact of the spread, maybe it's an issue of talent and we're just in a rut. The fact that we're debating about the worth of a one-year college starter is pretty telling, I think, paired with the fact that we're debating about the worth of a guy who missed virtually the entire last season with an injury.

Them's slim pickin's...

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Mecca

It's not just Sanchez, how many people argued against Ryan, against the guys this year, against whoever the QB we thought we'd have a chance to pick was?

At the time of the draft the QB is never good enough no matter who it is, Stafford was railed endlessly until it was realized he was going before us and then it turned to Sanchez.

It's about that position not Sanchez.

It's because people think we can aquire one a different way which is possible (Romo, Warner). I think half the QB's in the playoffs were 1st round picks though, so of course that is the safer bet. I'm with you on that one bro. If one is there that you like pull the trigger. We should have a shot at one of them this year. If they like him do it.

[Mecca]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

It's because people think we can aquire one a different way which is possible (Romo, Warner). I think half the QB's in the playoffs were 1st round picks though, so of course that is the safer bet. I'm with you on that one bro. If one is there that you like pull the trigger. We should have a shot at one of them this year. If they like him do it.

That position scares people for some reason, I love when the "it'll set us back 5 years if he's not good" argument is brought out, cause you know we've really been accomplishing a lot doing it this way for nearly 30 right?

[keg in kc]

Originally Posted by Mecca

That position scares people for some reason, I love when the "it'll set us back 5 years if he's not good" argument is brought out, cause you know we've really been accomplishing a lot doing it this way for nearly 30 right?

That's always been a lame argument. Missing on any high draft pick can set you back years, whether it's a QB or a DT. Chiefs fans should know that better than most, with the franchise's record at 1st and 2nd round picks from about '93 onward. Busts can kill you regardless, and (as we know...) multiple busts are almost impossible to recover from. These guys are supposed to be the stars you build around, regardless of where they play. The idea that there are "safe" picks is a mirage.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Mecca

That position scares people for some reason, I love when the "it'll set us back 5 years if he's not good" argument is brought out, cause you know we've really been accomplishing a lot doing it this way for nearly 30 right?

I don't know why. It's not like we have been burnt doing it. San Diego and Cinci kept pulling the trigger and it paid off for both of them, at least before Palmer's injury.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Mecca

You should be worried because he'll have to learn how to properly take center snaps and drop back.

You know what else you can't teach? Durability, this is a guy who never got hit and as soon as he got hit, he got hurt.

He can learn to drop back. 1/2 the time he throws will probably be out the gun anyways.

Durability worries me a bit. He needs to learn to avoid the big hits like Peyton manages to do.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

He can learn to drop back. 1/2 the time he throws will probably be out the gun anyways.

Durability worries me a bit. He needs to learn to avoid the big hits like Peyton manages to do.

Peyton's not a fragile ass QB. He's started every single game for the Colts since he was drafted.

Yeah, he avoids big hits, but he's also not Brodie Croyle.

To me, if you want Bradford, I'd say we've already got him on our roster.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by SNR

Peyton's not a fragile ass QB. He's started every single game for the Colts since he was drafted.

Yeah, he avoids big hits, but he's also not Brodie Croyle.

To me, if you want Bradford, I'd say we've already got him on our roster.

I can't ever really remember him taking a big hit. Not saying he is chicken shit at all, he is very good at avoiding the hits. You never see him take shots like Favre takes.

Yeah yeah, I've heard the Brodie comparisons before. I don't see it. Brodie has a stronger arm and isn't as accurate.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by BigCatDaddy

I can't ever really remember him taking a big hit. Not saying he is chicken shit at all, he is very good at avoiding the hits. You never see him take shots like Favre takes.

Yeah yeah, I've heard the Brodie comparisons before. I don't see it. Brodie has a stronger arm and isn't as accurate.

True. And Brodie also ran a pro offense in college.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

If he was on KC Sanchez would have a rating of around 50. No great defense, no running game for 3/4 of the season and league leading dropped passes. This team would have gotten him killed - physically and mentally.

If he had been drafted by the Chiefs, the smart thing would have been to let him sit for a year.

Something many of us were saying should be done when we hoped he would be the pick before the trade for Cassel.

I don't get why that is so hard for some dumbasses to grasp.

[milkman]

Originally Posted by keg in kc

This is where you do yourself a disservice. Not wanting your chosen guy doesn't mean people don't want anybody. And it doesn't mean they're stupid. Or that they're homers. It just means that they have a difference of opinion.

Like I've probably dozens of times in the last year, I wouldn't have taken Sanchez high, because he was a junior (risky enough on its own) with one year as a starter. That's too many red flags for the top 5. If we were picking at the bottom of the round I'd have been more open to it. Either way, that doesn't mean I don't want a QB. I would have taken Stafford had he been there. I would have taken Ryan had he been there the year before. I might take Clausen this year, although to be honest there's something about him that just seems off to me. But I imagine Weis knows him better than anybody, so if they somehow did decide to pull the trigger on him, I'd imagine I'd be okay with it.

And I never in a million years would have traded for Cassel. That whole thing had 'disaster' written all over it from the start. I hope it works out in the end, I really do, but I never would have done it.

You'r eone of the more reasnable posters.

However, mecca is right, overall, about the KCfan aversion to drafting QB.

As the colege season progressed in '08, the Stafford detractors were too numerous to count on here.

When it became apparent that we would not have the opportunity to select him, those detractors suddenly became Satfford supporters.

[Chiefnj2]

Originally Posted by milkman

If he had been drafted by the Chiefs, the smart thing would have been to let him sit for a year.

Something many of us were saying should be done when we hoped he would be the pick before the trade for Cassel.

I don't get why that is so hard for some dumbasses to grasp.

Sit behind who? Croyle? How long would that have lasted 3 weeks?

[DeezNutz]

Originally Posted by Chiefnj2

Sit behind who? Croyle? How long would that have lasted 3 weeks?

Sit behind the shorter Matt Cassel and Croyle.