How Alex Smith and the offense are holding back the Chiefs

[oaklandhater]

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt...116100378.html

Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Alex Smith explain the critical interception in the fourth quarter that turned the outcome of the game on Sunday. The Chiefs lost to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19-17. David Eulitt The Kansas City Star
BY SAM MELLINGER
[email protected]

After it was over, after a team that claims Super Bowl expectations lost at home to the NFL’s version of lukewarm tap water, the quarterback and head coach disagreed on who should be blamed for the day’s biggest failure.

What could’ve been another ugly Chiefs win turned into an ugly-as-vomit 19-17 loss to the mediocre Buccaneers at home on Sunday the moment quarterback Alex Smith executed a bad throw poorly, leading to an interception in the end zone when even a field goal would’ve probably been enough to win.

Exhale.

“I’ll take responsibility,” coach Andy Reid said: “Lousy call.”

A few minutes later, Smith addressed reporters.

“You can’t have it,” he said. “You can’t throw it. You have to protect the play.”

Three truths need to be said about this.

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First, Reid is right. Lousy call. Lousy call, because it was a predetermined read that relied upon Bucs safety Chris Conte falling for a play-action fake, and Conte did not fall for the play-action fake. The Bucs had consistent problems covering Travis Kelce, whose combination of agility and strength becomes more effective near the goal line, but the call Reid made meant Smith never looked that direction.

Second, Smith is right. Can’t have it. Can’t throw it, for a hundred reasons, starting with the larger truth that his value lies largely in his ability to avoid crucial mistakes. But beyond that, it was a virtually blind throw, his decision made regardless of what he saw when he looked up from the fake.

The throw was tipped at the line of scrimmage, but it’s not clear if that caused the interception. Either way, it only adds to the failure — in a situation where a field goal would’ve given the Chiefs the lead, Smith attempted a throw that wasn’t there through a passing lane that wasn’t open.

The third truth: The franchise quarterback and the coach paid more money than anyone else without a Super Bowl win each failed on Sunday, have failed for a few weeks now, and need to be better if the most promising Chiefs season in years is to end up in anything other than disappointment.

Because the Chiefs have a Super Bowl defense. They have won seven games with a wicked combination of point prevention and playmaking, using a talented, versatile and athletic group to nullify an opposing offense’s mismatches and create enough in the defense’s favor.

But at the moment, they have a lemon offense. This column could be a thousand words of nothing but specific reasons the offense is frustrating, but in the interest of respecting your time and limiting our collective masochism, let’s keep it to two.

They should be so much better than this in their fourth year together, and a disproportionate amount of the problems are in the most crucial spots.

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In the last three games, the Chiefs have had 10 red-zone possessions. One of those came after Marcus Peters’ remarkable strip that set up the winning field goal at Carolina. Of the nine in which the Chiefs were trying for a touchdown, they have six field goals, two touchdowns and a game-destroying interception.

Smith is responsible for at least three of those failures — two wide-open touchdown passes he missed at Carolina, and the interception against Tampa.

The rest are more of that murky and foul-smelling stew of football blame. Some on the quarterback, some on the play-calling, some on individual execution and some on good plays by the opponent’s defense.

One of the laments you hear around the Chiefs’ locker room is that their offense hasn’t found its identity yet, but if we’re being completely honest, the offense has developed a clear identity — they are in the league’s bottom half in points because Smith has regressed, they’ve been overmatched in the biggest moments and they haven’t gotten enough from their playmaking stars.

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Travis Kelce: 'There's no excuses' after loss to Buccaneers
Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce spoke in the team's locker room after his team's 19-17 loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday, Nov. 20, 2016.
Blair Kerkhoff The Kansas City Star

Reid, Smith and everyone else involved with the offense spent a lot of time last week acknowledging their shortcomings on third down. They entered the week among the league’s worst five in converting third downs. They were awful at it, again.

The defense was bad enough, giving up 11 conversions on 16 third downs, but the offense didn’t help. They converted four of eight third downs, but that’s misleading. Two of the conversions came after Smith and Reid’s self-induced knee-capping, meaning the Chiefs were two-for-six when they still had a realistic chance.

Particularly in football, and particularly after disappointments like this, the temptation for hyperbole is omnipresent. But this isn’t a bad offense. At least, it shouldn’t be. They were ninth in points scored last season, and the emergence of Tyreek Hill should be providing the deep threat they’ve always missed.

But the Chiefs are torpedoing their own best chances, often on third down.

Consider:

They averaged 6.6 yards per play against the Bucs but let drives die on third and 9, third and 2, third and 1 and third and 7.

Blaming the quarterback is always among the easiest things to do in football, and it’s probably one of the most misguided. But it fits here, with this team, at least as a primary problem.

Smith’s underperformance — compared to what he’s been in the past, and what he should be now — is the single biggest obstacle keeping the Chiefs from being what they could and should be.

Maybe it’s worth mentioning that I’ve been higher on Smith than most over his first three seasons. But so far, what should be his best season with the Chiefs is instead pacing to be his worst, by touchdowns, yards per pass, passer rating, QBR and rushing yards. All of this while being surrounded by the most talent, and protected by the best offensive line, that he’s had in Kansas City.

One theory: Smith and the coaches have not effectively adjusted to defenses taking away the quarterback scramble, which is emphasizing the truth that Smith operates with a smaller margin for error than most.

Smith did have an 11-yard scramble for a touchdown against the Bucs, but that’s the exception. If he keeps his current pace, he will finish the season with 74 yards on 37 attempts (2.0 yards per rush). A year ago, he ran for 498 yards on 84 attempts (5.9 per rush).

Without the threat of him running, windows that were already small tend to shrink, particularly on third down. A year ago, Smith ran for 30 first downs. Only Cam Newton and Russell Wilson had more. This year, he has run for three.

The worry here is only amplified by the vague head injury Smith suffered in Indianapolis. He is wearing a different helmet now, and has pledged to no longer slide feet-first to better protect himself.

Smith talked about seeing pressure up the middle when describing one of the missed throws at Carolina, and even his inner self-defense calculus has only changed slightly, it could make a significant difference. Football coaches and players are constantly talking about the thin margins that decide their sport’s winners and losers.

Maybe it’s that. Maybe it’s something else. Maybe it’s that, combined with something else. But the Chiefs are down three points per game from last year, scoring 20 or fewer in five games already after being held that low just four times all of last regular season.

The good news is that this doesn’t have to be a fatal flaw. The Chiefs can still win the AFC West, and can still work their way into a first-round bye and home playoff game. The defense has been more than good enough and only figures to improve as Justin Houston comes along.

But the offense is holding them back. It needs to be fixed, and soon. They play at Denver on Sunday night. Heck of a time to see the toughest defense on their schedule.

Sam Mellinger: 816-234-4365, @mellinger

[TEX]

Originally Posted by UK_Chief

Bottom line for me, defense couldn't stop them on third down and had a bad day BUT still held them to 19 points, which should be few enough for a competent offense to win at home. Alex and the offense didn't do anywhere near enough to get the win with the defence playing as they were.

To put another way, the defence wins almost every game for KC, one week they don't show up and the offense can't figure out why the **** they are there. The offense almost never wins us a game sadly.

That's pretty much how I see it as well. We all knew that sooner or later, the offense was going to have to step up. That day was yesterday. It didn't happen.

[Dunerdr]

Originally Posted by ARROW2

That falls on the QB.....PERIOD!!! I'm tired of this shit. Walrus has the ****ing nerve to get mad when someone suggested that maybe Foles brings more to the table than Alexis, like he is some hall of famer with rings or something. **** THIS SHIT!!!!

I'm not saying Foles is the answer but he looks like a better option to me. It's like a brain with no arm being replaced by a cannon arm with some brain.
I'll take my chances with Foles physical talent on the quick plays alone. A heavy dose of ware and west until he's comfortable, or just you know force feed Kelce and Maclin ala cassel to bowe and that would probably be good enough to win some games for real.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by TEX

That's pretty much how I see it as well. We all knew that sooner or later, the offense was going to have to step up. That day was yesterday. It didn't happen.

ugly as ****, but they did kind of step up in the end.

Sure, it was a lot to ask for the defense to get that 3 and out stop vs TB with 2 minutes left.. but the KC offense drove for that TD prior to bring the game within 2 points.

KC will get Peters back.. they'll get Maclin back.. they'll get a more recovered Houston.. and they will come out Thursday night and beat the Donks in epic fashion.

We'll be fine.

All this doom and gloom defeat from the fans will be looked back on and laughed over by Christmas.

[Reerun_KC]

Originally Posted by Sandy Cheeks

and they will come out Thursday night and beat the Donks in epic fashion.

We'll be fine.

All this doom and gloom defeat from the fans will be looked back on and laughed over by Christmas.

Can I add this to my signature?

[scho63]

Last year Alex had 498 yards rushing.

As of yesterday's loss his total is 54 in 9 games. A meager 25 attempts for 2.2 yards avg.

He is doing jack shit with his legs as well. I've said it 100x's that his legs last year were the third weapon on offense. This year it is a complete non-factor and he has COST us many third down conversions by not running when last year, he gave us a LOT of third down conversions with his legs.

He is going backwards across the board.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by Reerun_KC

Can I add this to my signature?

sure, go ahead. Unlike many, I have no concern over my internet ego.. and therefore do not care about being wrong about a football prediction. I feel sorry for anyone that does.

I'll stay optimistic for a bit longer, and see what happens. This regime has shown that they can turn around a bad situation into a very good one. They deserve some faith in that regard.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by scho63

He is going backwards across the board.

I don't think it's a dramatic decline in play.. but yes, a decline all the same.. and it's troubling. He needs to reverse this latest trend, or there will be no justification in keeping him on at that salary.

[notorious]

Although Maclin has been mediocre this season, he is obviously tied to a huge part of it's production through indirect means.

[Beef Supreme]

Hidden touchdowns. And he really sets up the punter for a good game.

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

Originally Posted by notorious

Although Maclin has been mediocre this season, he is obviously tied to a huge part of it's production through indirect means.

Thanks for repeating what I said multiple times last night. Someone is learning well.

[Mr. Plow]

Originally Posted by BigChiefTablet

Hidden touchdowns. And he really sets up the punter for a good game.

You've got to make sure that your best players are in the position to succeed. He sets up Colquitt for long punts inside the 10 better than anyone!

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by TigerUppercut

Thanks for repeating what I said multiple times last night. Someone is learning well.

No need for that posturing.. it's pretty common knowledge that a good/very good WR or even TE has a large effect on stressing a defense.. whether the ball goes his way or not.

With a healthy JMac, Conley, and Hill.. THAT is one heck of a WR trio.
(yes, still **** off to WR4/5, Albert Wilson)

Add in Kelce and Ware.. and there really are NO "weapon excuses" for the QB.
(but still.. need a healthy JMac, or it gets shaky)

[RunKC]

The Chiefs could have won even with Alex's bad INT if Andy wouldn't have been so goddamn cute on the first drive.

Not running the ball 1 time inside the 5 is mind bogglingly stupid

[notorious]

Originally Posted by TigerUppercut

Thanks for repeating what I said multiple times last night. Someone is learning well.

It was said last year, and all this year, too.



Try to keep up.

[Sandy Vagina]

Originally Posted by RunKC

The Chiefs could have won even with Alex's bad INT if Andy wouldn't have been so goddamn cute on the first drive.

Not running the ball 1 time inside the 5 is mind bogglingly stupid

Let's break that down, if possible.

- 1st down. reverse to a gimpy. just returned Kelce? reeruned
- 2nd down. dropped pass over the middle, where Kelce probably punches it in for a TD if not DROPPED.

- 3rd down. See here is where it gets debatable. I erased the game, and only remember Smith throwing the 5 yarder to Conley.. short of the sticks.

So what happened here? was Smith under heavy pressure? was the play design for Conley on that in hopes that he could turn and get a few yards more? anyone have a good insight on it?