The Chiefs Have Real Problems (Deadspin)

[Quesadilla Joe]

http://deadspin.com/the-chiefs-have-...ium=socialflow

Spoiler!

Late last week I pitched an article about the Chiefs. Heading into Week 11, they had won five straight and were in line for the AFC’s No. 2 seed. But, I proposed to question, are the Chiefs actually any good? The response I got from an editor was to wait to see how the Chiefs did during Sunday’s home game against the Buccaneers.

“I figure they’ll win so it’ll still apply,” Barry wrote back. “And if they lose, the question will be even more relevant.”

So it is, after Sunday’s 19-17 loss to Tampa Bay. Now at 7-3, Kansas City would still qualify for the postseason if the playoffs were to begin today, which of course they don’t. But until Sunday, the Chiefs had been bending without quite breaking for a while by beating bad defenses, winning despite some meh performances (even for him) from Alex Smith, and struggling like hell on both sides of the ball in the red zone. And what’s left of their schedule is a gauntlet compared to what they’ve already faced.

The Chiefs’ most striking statistical advantage has been their plus-13 turnover differential, which is tied for the league lead with the Vikings. Kansas City’s defense has indeed bailed out its offense—two fourth-quarter takeaways led directly to 11 points in an astonishing comeback win at the Panthers in Week 10—but a closer look at the Chiefs’ takeaway ratio reveals it to be somewhat hollow. Kansas City was plus-7 against the Jets because Ryan Fitzpatrick spent the afternoon playing catch with its secondary, and it was plus-4 against the Jaguars, who are the Jaguars. In four games this season, the Chiefs have actually had a negative turnover differential. They lost three of them.

Then there are the defenses the Chiefs have beaten, and their DVOA rankings:

Chargers: 11th
Jets: 24th
Raiders: 28th
Saints: 29th
Colts: 31st
Jaguars: 17th
Panthers: 15th

Despite all that, the Chiefs’ offense has muddled along. Injuries have kept Jamaal Charles off the field for all but 12 carries this season. Spencer Ware (4.9 yards per carry) has done a good job in Charles’s place, but the team remains just 25th in rushing DVOA. And Alex Smith hasn’t been able to lift the offense to any real heights.

Per Pro Football Focus, Smith has completed just eight passes that have traveled 20 or more yards in the air; that’s to be expected, given his lack of arm strength and Andy Reid’s reliance on a quick-strike system. Smith’s top target is tight end Travis Kelce, who has 19 more catches than anyone else on the roster (though wideout Jeremy Maclin has missed time with a groin injury). And while Smith has been pressured on just 26.3 percent of his dropbacks, according to PFF, his passer rating is a rather dreary 66.4 when he does see pressure. The Chiefs find themselves heavily reliant on their pass protection, which makes them eminently vulnerable to any team with a decent pass rush.

The Chiefs are terrible on third down (a 35.6 percent conversion rate, which ranks 25th) and they can’t find the end zone once they get inside the 20. Their’ red-zone conversion rate is a sickly 41.2 percent, which ranks 31st in the league, ahead of only the woeful Jets.

Here are a couple of examples of that red-zone futility and uncreative playcalling. The first clip shows three straight plays against the Panthers. On the first, Smith just doesn’t see a wide-open Kelce; on the second, he badly overthrows Chris Conley; and on the third, TE Travis Ross drops a ball that wouldn’t have gone for a first down anyway.

This next and-goal sequence from Sunday shows a handoff to Kelce for a loss, a Kelce drop, and a third-down route combination that sent just two of five potential targets into the end zone:

Smith’s best asset has always been his lack of big mistakes; his career interception rate of 2.2 percent is seventh best among active quarterbacks. But with the Chiefs down by two early in the fourth quarter Sunday, he threw this awful interception on third down, a predetermined read that got blown up because Bucs safety Chris Conte never bit on the play-action fake:



Smith’s flaws as a passer have been exposed in large part because defenses aren’t allowing him to scramble or to run like he used to. Last year, Smith ran for 498 yards and 5.9 yards per rush. This year, he’s on pace for just 74 yards on 37 attempts. In short, Smith can’t stretch the field consistently with either his arm or his legs. It’s a problem.

Back to the defense: The Chiefs’ unit is ninth in DVOA, but just 19th in run DVOA, and it can’t get off the field on third down; teams have converted against them 46.7 percent of the time, the third-highest total in the NFL. (The Bucs were a devastatingly effective 11-for-16 on third down on Sunday.) Edge rusher Justin Houston finally played for the first time this season on Sunday, but Marcus Peters, a playmaking cornerback whose 13 interceptions since the start of last season leads the league, has been bothered by a hip pointer. And another edge rusher, Dee Ford, sustained a hamstring injury on Sunday. Ford’s 10 sacks are tied for the league lead, and his pass-rush productivity (per PFF) of 11.1 ranks 10th among 3-4 outside linebackers.

The Chiefs still have to face the Broncos twice, plus matchups against offenses like the Falcons (1st in DVOA), Raiders (4th), and Titans (7th). Their 7-3 currently record gives them a one-game cushion in the race for a wild card. But the real question might not be if this is the season the Chiefs are capable of a deep postseason push, but rather whether they’re a playoff team at all.

[oaklandhater]

Originally Posted by beach tribe

There is also the possibility that, Smith cares more about the longevity of his career than he does about winning. W,hich wouldn't surprise me in the least. He is kind of a pussy

But I believe in a big game in front of a national audience he will probably go all out. I guess we will find out.

This is why I've said I don't like him as a person.

[beach tribe]

Originally Posted by oaklandhater

This is why I've said I don't like him as a person.

which post did you say that in?

Oh, right. All of them. we get it dude.

[oaklandhater]

Originally Posted by beach tribe

which post did you say that in?

Oh, right. All of them. we get it dude.

Not all of em like 2 post

[MMXcalibur]

"Worst 7-3 team ever"

...a few years ago it was the "worst 9-0 team ever" and back in 2003 I'm sure we were the "worst 9-0 team ever" as well.

Point is, the Chiefs are just the worst.

[mdstu]

Originally Posted by TigerUppercut

Let the season play out instead of making everyone else suffer thru your incessant *****ing.

You first

[CupidStunt]

Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter

2003 9-0 team was worse though; dreadful defense, and over-rated offense due to a weak schedule. Finishing 4-4 to end 13-4 was no surprise--at all. This team could win another playoff game--or even two, if they can get healthy and get Smith on-track.

That team would ****ing destroy this pathetic team and you know it.

The ONLY reason this team might have a prayer of winning a playoff game is because the NFL is utter dogshit in 2016. We might get the miracle luck of a road game at some sackofshit team like the Colts.

This team hosting prime Peyton Manning?



This team would be lucky to stay within 30 of that 03 Colts team.

[oaklandhater]

Originally Posted by CupidStunt

That team would ****ing destroy this pathetic team and you know it.

The ONLY reason this team might have a prayer of winning a playoff game is because the NFL is utter dogshit in 2016. We might get the miracle luck of a road game at some sackofshit team like the Colts.

This team hosting prime Peyton Manning?



This team would be lucky to stay within 30 of that 03 Colts team.

This the defense wins championship morons don't understand how the 03 chiefs would have shred our D.

[beach tribe]

Originally Posted by CupidStunt

That team would ****ing destroy this pathetic team and you know it.

The ONLY reason this team might have a prayer of winning a playoff game is because the NFL is utter dogshit in 2016. We might get the miracle luck of a road game at some sackofshit team like the Colts.

This team hosting prime Peyton Manning?



This team would be lucky to stay within 30 of that 03 Colts team.

As much as id like to disagree, there is no way we could keep pace wih that 03 team
35-20

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Sanchez should be the Chiefs starting QB.

SNATCHZ!

[tk13]

Our offense is not good enough right now, but you are not winning anything with a defense like we had in 2003. Ever. And I am a huge Vermeil fan, but this team firing on all cylinders would do much better against the 03 team that people expect. How on earth would they stop a 100% Jamaal Charles? There's no way. That 03 team allowed 5.2 yards a carry on defense. Charles and Ware would run for 250 yards on them. They could maul the clock if Reid didn't muck it up.

I think the 2005 Chiefs were a better team. The offense was slightly worse but still #1 in yards, and we actually had a middle of the pack defense with a legit pass rusher in Jared Allen. They just played a nightmare schedule. The 2003 defense was a passive defense with no pass rushers, they allowed all the underneath stuff and could not stop the run to save their lives. That's exactly the type of defense this current offense should succeed against.