ESPN says that the Bucs are the best team in the NFL.... By a MILE

[ChiefBlueCFC]

So EsPn has an article on ESPN+ saying that the Bucs are the best team in the NFL by a long shot. I'm not too sure about that, but I am an idiot and pay $5/month for ESPN+ so let me share all this bull shit with you all...


ESPN+
EXCLUSIVE CONTENT
Why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the NFL's best team -- by a mile
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6:00 AM CT
Aaron Schatz
Football Outsiders
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The Tampa Bay Buccaneers were supposed to be a good football team in 2020. They added the greatest quarterback of all time, Tom Brady. It was certainly possible that Brady would turn into a pumpkin at age 43, but it was more likely that he would be an upgrade on Jameis Winston behind center. Those of us who pay attention to advanced analytics also knew that the Buccaneers had a strong defense. So we knew that the Buccaneers were going to be good.

We didn't think they would be this good.

The Buccaneers are not dominating in the NFL standings because they have two losses so far this year. But they are dominating when you break down the play-by-play for a closer look at how teams are performing overall. Tampa Bay is now No. 1 in the Football Outsiders DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) ratings. And the Buccaneers are No. 1 by a large margin. The gap between the Bucs and the No. 2 Baltimore Ravens is equal to the gap between the Ravens and the No. 7 Los Angeles Rams.

Tampa Bay lost the first game of the season to a good New Orleans Saints team, but they've had a positive rating for each of their games since. That includes the close Week 5 loss to the Chicago Bears, when Tampa outgained Chicago 5.3 yards per play to 4.1 yards per play and primarily lost because of penalties that aren't necessarily predictive of future performance. Tampa Bay's five wins have all been solid, especially its domination of a Green Bay Packers offense that had been the best in the league in the early going.

Put all their plays together, and the Buccaneers have now climbed onto a list of the best teams we've ever tracked with DVOA through seven games, dating to 1985. So how have they done it, and what does history tell us about teams that are this dominant through this stretch of the season?



Where the Bucs stand through seven weeks
First, here's a look at the top 12 teams by DVOA through seven weeks, dating to 1985:

Best DVOA Through Seven Weeks, 1985-2020
YEAR TEAM W-L DVOA
2007 Patriots 7-0 69.1%
1991 Washington 7-0 61.8%
2019 Patriots 7-0 54.6%
1996 Packers 6-1 54.0%
1985 Bears 7-0 49.9%
2007 Colts 7-0 48.7%
1994 Cowboys 6-1 48.2%
2014 Broncos 6-1 47.6%
2019 49ers 7-0 46.3%
2020 Buccaneers 5-2 45.0%
2006 Bears 7-0 44.3%
1999 Rams 6-1 43.2%
Two losses put the Buccaneers a little behind in the race for the best playoff position, but with such a high rating, our playoff odds simulation is expecting big things from them. In our latest simulation, Tampa Bay is the favorite to get the NFC's No. 1 seed, doing so in 28.3% of simulations. They make it to Super Bowl LV in 33.2% of simulations and win it all 19.2% of the time, second behind Kansas City. ESPN's FPI simulation gives Tampa similar chances, at 18.7%.

The Bucs are led by their defense, which is the best in the league this season. But the improvement has come on the offensive side more than the defensive side. That might be seem like a surprise, since the Bucs were third in the league last year in points scored yet 29th in points allowed. Those stats are really misleading, however. The Bucs scored a lot of points last year because they were constantly passing the ball, often losing in games. They were losing because they had so many turnovers that forced their defense to play on short fields where it was easier for the opposing offense to score. That's how the Bucs could somehow be just eighth in yards allowed per play yet give up so many points.

DVOA ratings give a much more accurate portrayal of last year's team: 23rd on offense and sixth on defense. This year, the Bucs have improved to sixth on offense and first on defense. Let's take a look at exactly where the improvement has taken place.

How Tom Brady has been rejuvenated

Tom Brady has had a lot of opportunities to smile this season. AP Photo/David Becker
First, the offense, where of course the biggest change has been bringing in Brady to play quarterback. Brady has been much better than Winston, and much better than he was in New England a year ago. Last year, Brady finished 17th out of 34 qualified quarterbacks in passing DVOA. Winston was down at 24th. This year, Brady is fifth out of 32 qualified quarterbacks.

Obviously, the biggest difference here is in interceptions. Winston had 30 of them last year, the most of any quarterback since 1988. Brady has received some attention for two pick-sixes this year, but he has only four interceptions total, putting him on pace for just nine. Not handing the ball to the other team in good field position means that Tampa's defense starts its average drive on their opponents' 28-yard-line this year, a big difference from last year when Tampa's defense started its average drive on the 32.

Interceptions aren't the only negative plays Brady avoids. He also takes a lot fewer sacks than Winston did. There's some improvement along the offensive line, which has gone from 17th to ninth in pass block win rate, but much of this year's improvement is related to Brady's ability to get rid of the ball before the pass rush takes him down. Last year, the Buccaneers were 22nd in adjusted sack rate, which measures sacks (and intentional groundings) per pass play adjusted for situation and opponent. This year, the Bucs rank No. 1, narrowly ahead of the Rams and Titans.

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There was a lot of curiosity this past offseason about how Brady would fit himself into the Bruce Arians offense, which featured a lot more passing downfield than recent Patriots' offenses. So far, Brady has fit in just fine, throwing deep more often than he did a year ago, but not as often as Winston did. Brady's average depth of target has gone from 7.8 yards to 9.1 yards. Winston was at 10.7 last year, and the NFL average this year is 8.2.

One way in which Brady has imposed his style onto the Arians offense is by bringing his favorite tight end to Tampa Bay with him. Arians historically has never used tight ends very much, but Rob Gronkowski is changing that. This year, 27% of Tampa Bay passes have been thrown to a tight end. That number was 19% last year, and just 14% and 17% in Arians' final two years in Arizona.

However, while Gronk is coming off two big games, he has been only average for the whole year by DVOA. The real strength of this passing game is the wide receivers. Three Tampa Bay receivers rank in the top five for wide receiver DVOA: Chris Godwin is second, Scotty Miller fourth, and Mike Evans fifth. It's hard to tell how Antonio Brown could even be better than what the Tampa Bay receivers have given the team so far, although he'll help them deal with the nagging injuries that Godwin and Evans have dealt with all season.

The Tampa Bay running game has also made a big improvement from a year ago, going from 25th to 12th in DVOA. The numbers tell a mixed story about where the improvement is most evident. The Bucs' offensive line has actually declined in ESPN's run block win rate, from seventh a year ago to 16th so far this season. But in Football Outsiders' adjusted line yards metric, the Bucs are better this year, going from 23rd to 12th.

Whether the run blocking is better or worse this year, the running is better in part because the Bucs aren't depending on Peyton Barber any longer. Last year, Barber averaged just 3.1 yards per carry, including 1.45 yards after first contact. Compare that to Ronald Jones, who averaged 4.2 yards per carry and 1.86 yards after first contact in 2019. This year, Jones is up to 4.6 yards per carry and 2.05 yards after first contact; the latter stat ranks him sixth in the league. Leonard Fournette is averaging 4.9 yards per carry and 2.34 yards after first contract, although that's on only 35 carries.

The defense has gotten even better

Cornerback Carlton Davis has leveled up this season. Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports
Let's turn things around and look at Tampa Bay's No. 1 defense. Run defense in 2019 was already first in the league so what has really improved here is pass defense, going from 13th last year to first this year.

The biggest improvement in pass defense has been on first downs. Remember here that because higher DVOA represents more scoring, defenses are better when they are negative:

Tampa Bay Pass Defense DVOA, 2019-2020
YEAR 1ST
DOWN RANK 2ND
DOWN RANK 3RD
DOWN RANK
2019 19.4% 20 -5.0% 9 -13.9% 7
2020 -20.9% 3 -23.7% 3 -30.4% 8
Last year, the average dropback against Tampa Bay on first down gained 6.7 yards. This year, it gains just 5.8 yards.

Another big change on defense is improvement against deep throws, defined as 16 or more yards through the air. Last year, the Bucs were 29th in DVOA against these throws. This year, they rank seventh. Part of that rating is three interceptions on throws to the deep right, all by cornerback Carlton Davis. Last year, the Bucs had only three interceptions total on deep passes in 16 games.

The Buccaneers use Davis heavily to cover the opposition's top target, and he's a really underrated star on their defense. According to Sports Info Solutions charting, his yards allowed per target has gone from 7.9 in 2018 to 6.1 in 2019 and now just 4.5 in 2020. Davis leads all defensive backs in the NFL in SIS' "points saved" metric. Last year, Tampa ranked 17th in DVOA against opposing No. 1 receivers. This year, the Bucs rank first.

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Improvement in the secondary appears to be the best explanation for the improvement overall. Tampa's front ranks second in the league in both pass rush win rate and run stop win rate. But last year, Tampa's front ranked third in the league in PRWR and seventh in RSWR. The front was already very good, and there wasn't much room for improvement.

Linebacker Lavonte David has been one of the league's best and least appreciated playmakers for years now, and now he has been joined by second-year linebacker Devin White in the middle of the Bucs' defense. David and White are tied for the league lead in defeats, a metric that measures plays that either (A) lose yards, (B) create a turnover, or (C) prevent a conversion on third or fourth down. David and White each have 16 defeats through Week 7, tied for the league lead with Arizona's Budda Baker and Pittsburgh's T.J. Watt.

Finally, a short word about special teams. Tampa Bay has improved here too, going from 27th to 14th. This year's Bucs have better returns and have had a better performance from punter Bradley Pinion, who is averaging a career-high 44.8 yards per punt.

Looking ahead
Obviously, there's plenty that could still go wrong for the Bucs. There's a lot of variance in the NFL, and nothing is guaranteed. They are still competing for a division title with a very strong New Orleans team that has a head-to-head win over them. In nearly 10% of our current simulations, the Bucs fall apart and don't even make it to the playoffs.

But since 1985, 10 of the 20 best teams in DVOA through Week 7 went on to the Super Bowl, and seven of those teams won it all. The Bucs have a very good chance to be the last team standing at the end of the 2020 season. And if they win a championship, they'll do it as a strong all-around team with few weaknesses, not just as the Tom Brady Show.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/sto...best-team-mile

[MahomesMagic]

Bringing in Antonio Brown and having Todd Bowles play soft zone/prevent looks moronic.

It's been a while since I have seen a team choke as bad they did in a big spot last night.

[SeattleChiefFan]

I'm guessing Schatz pretty much feels like Schitz this morning.

[dj56dt58]

had a bad betting day yesterday but would have broken even on an over 51.5 for this game. How the **** can one team score 38 (31 in the first half) and that not cash. **** you brady

[MahomesMagic]

Originally Posted by dj56dt58

had a bad betting day yesterday but would have broken even on an over 51.5 for this game. How the **** can one team score 38 (31 in the first half) and that not cash. **** you brady

Yup. Had a rough day especially on Arizona. Arizona is a blitz happy team and they decide to go away from their identity against a rookie QB in his 2nd start.

[ModSocks]

Apparently the refs forgot that they were suppose to keep prime time games like this close for the ratings.

This being the prime-timiest of prime time games this year and all...

I mean, that's what the most brightest and intelligent posters on CP told me.....

[Deberg_1990]

Brady doesn’t get to play 3 division pushovers anymore like he did for nearly 2 decades.

[Vox Romantic]

BWWWAAAHHAAHAHAHAHAHA

[tyecopeland]

Has there been an update to this article now that they are in the Super bowl?

[Megatron96]

That's all I have to say about that.

[joethomas]

Aren't ESPN the dorks who said the Bills had a better QB than us?

[lwardo9]

Originally Posted by OrtonsPiercedTaint

Please put YOUR stimulus check on the Bucs

exactly. a storyline brought to you by las vegas.