Chiefs YAC

**jAZ** · 01-04-2010, 02:47 AM

I noticed how important yards/attempt was in calculating the QB rating. I was curious how the Chiefs stacked up to the NE and AZ offenses in YAC during 2009. I couldn't get a game/game figure for players, so I counted all of Longs and Chambers yards to as well as LJ's. That's probably an inflated number by maybe 50 yards, so I've rounded accordingly.

KC, 1100 YAC

NE, 1900 YAC
AZ, 1450 YAC

Other noteable teams...

DAL, 1700 YAC
DEN, 1550 YAC
DET, 1450 YAC
GNB, 1700 YAC
HOU, 1700 YAC
IND, 1700 YAC
MIN, 1700 YAC
NOR, 1900 YAC
SEA, 1550 YAC
SDG, 1650 YAC

Our top 5 guys in 2009:

Code:

Jamaal Charles, RB	KAN	204
Chris Chambers, WR	KAN	153
Dwayne Bowe,   WR	KAN	146
Bobby Wade,   WR	KAN	103
Mark Bradley,   WR	KAN	95

Charles was #68, Chambers was #112, Bowe was #119.

Our to 5 guys in 2008:

Code:

Dwayne Bowe,   WR	KAN	386
Jamaal Charles, RB	KAN	309
Tony Gonzalez, TE	KAN	258
Larry Johnson,   RB	KAN	109
Devard Darling,   WR	KAN	107

Bowe was #22 in the league, Charles was #44, Gonzo was #62.

So we had 3 players in 2008 who were MUCH better at YAC in 2008 than any player in 2009.

Why is that? Bowe's numbers are down somewhat because of his 4 games suspension. But Charles played much more, though probably less as a pass catching back?

**jAZ** · 01-04-2010, 02:59 AM

And for the record, 2007 Chiefs:

Code:

Dwayne Bowe,   WR	KAN	354
Tony Gonzalez, TE	KAN	297
Larry Johnson,   RB	KAN	254
Kolby Smith,     RB	KAN   155
Michael Bennett, RB	KAN	119

So the drop isn't just a product of the "Pistol" of 2008. It's different than past seasons and we are *bad* at it this year.

jjjayb · 01-04-2010, 07:11 AM

Because our QB doesn't hit guys in stride? His innaccuracy causes them to come back to the ball, dive for the ball etc..

jspchief · 01-04-2010, 07:35 AM

I remember Bowe in his rookie year was always instantly turning upfield with his receptions. In fact, he reminded me a lot of Terrel Owens in the way he tried to turn every catch into something more.

Now It's all he can do just to hang on to the damn ball. What the hell happened?

**jAZ** · 01-04-2010, 10:07 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jjjayb

Because our QB doesn't hit guys in stride? His innaccuracy causes them to come back to the ball, dive for the ball etc..

Maybe, but that seems more complicated than you might assume.

New England's YAC in 2008 vs 2009

2008 with Cassel, 2100 YAC
2009 with Brady, 1900 YAC

2009 with Cassel, 1100 YAC

Cassel was able to deliver the ball well enough in 2008 to get 1000 more yards off of YAC alone than KC in 2009.

That's amazing.

JohninGpt · 01-04-2010, 10:42 AM

HonestChieffan · 01-04-2010, 10:46 AM

Our guys must need to run further after they catch it.

Wait...our guys generally dont catch it.

patteeu · 01-04-2010, 10:46 AM

Are you talking about "yards after catch" or "yards/attempt"? Your OP confused me.

siberian khatru · 01-04-2010, 10:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patteeu

Are you talking about "yards after catch" or "yards/attempt"? Your OP confused me.

Christ, you two, take it to the DC Forum.

Isn't jAZ and Patteeu talking football a sign of the Apocalypse?

**jAZ** · 01-04-2010, 12:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by patteeu

Are you talking about "yards after catch" or "yards/attempt"? Your OP confused me.

Mostly YAC.

It started with looking at Cassel's QB rating, and realizing that a big part of the formula for QB Rating is based upon a QB's yards per attempt. It occured to me how worthless that portion of the formula can be (at least to an extent) given that a big portion of a QB's yardage number is generated by YAC. In fact, certain offensive systems are designed to be productive based largely on YAC. If the WR's are ineffecitve at generating YAC, it can have a substantial impact on the QB rating.

Cassel circa 2008 benefied from 2100 YAC at NE. Only 1100 with KC.

Same QB, different weapons.

Those 1000 yards of YAC difference are worth almost 10 points of difference in Cassel's QB rating (69.9 vs 78.4).

If Bowe plays all 4 games and somehow our WR's get just the YAC output we had in 2007 or 2008 (about 300 more yards), Cassel's QB rating goes up to about the same level.

jjjayb · 01-04-2010, 12:19 PM

Cassel is what he is. He's an average QB. You shouldn't have to tweak numbers to make him look better.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jAZ

Mostly YAC.

It started with looking at Cassel's QB rating, and realizing that a big part of the formula for QB Rating is based upon a QB's yards per attempt. It occured to me how worthless that portion of the formula can be (at least to an extent) given that a big portion of a QB's yardage number is generated by YAC. In fact, certain offensive systems are designed to be productive based largely on YAC. If the WR's are ineffecitve at generating YAC, it can have a substantial impact on the QB rating.

Cassel circa 2008 benefied from 2100 YAC at NE. Only 1100 with KC.

Same QB, different weapons.

Those 1000 yards of YAC difference are worth almost 10 points of difference in Cassel's QB rating (69.9 vs 78.4).

If Bowe plays all 4 games and somehow our WR's get just the YAC output we had in 2007 or 2008 (about 300 more yards), Cassel's QB rating goes up to about the same level.

Part of the problem with our YAC is that Bowe missed games and he's a normally a major producer. But that's only 25% decline, his was over 50%.

**jAZ** · 01-04-2010, 12:29 PM

So I just recalc'ed the QB ratings and resorted the list after taking out each teams YAC from the QB's calculation. It's not perfect, as some QBs' didn't play the whole season, and I'm taking out a whole season of YAC from their yardage (see Vince Young), but suprisingly the order of the list didn't change that much.

Code:

W/O YAC	W/ YAC		Player
1	2		Brett Favre
2	1		Drew Brees
3	4		Aaron Rodgers
4	3		Philip Rivers
5	5		Ben Roethlisberger
6	6		Peyton Manning
7	7		Matt Schaub
8	8		Tony Romo
9	9		Tom Brady
10	10		Kurt Warner
11	11		Eli Manning
12	12		Donovan McNabb
13	16		Carson Palmer
14	13		Joe Flacco
15	14		Kyle "Pro Bowl" Orton
16	17		David Garrard
17	15		Jason Campbell
18	20		Matt Ryan
19	19		Alex Smith
20	21		Jay Cutler
21	22		Chad Henne
22	18		Vince Young
23	23		Matt Hasselbeck
24	25		Matt Cassel
25	27		Brady Quinn
26	28		Mark Sanchez
27	26		Ryan Fitzpatrick
28	30		Josh Freeman
29	24		Marc Bulger
30	31		Jake Delhomme
31	29		Matthew Stafford
32	32		JaMarcus Russell

FAX · 01-04-2010, 12:32 PM

Our passing game looks a whole lot like 5 club-footed monkeys in a hot potato scrum.

It's an interesting statistic, to be sure, Mr. jAZ. We once proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that Yards Per Attempt (a related stat) has a significant impact on win/loss records. My guess is that YAC is dependent upon A) Proper route running, B) Ability of WR to gain separation, C) Ball placement, and D) Desire ... not necessarily in that order.

Since we are struggling in practically every one of those categories, it makes sense that our overall YAC is low.

FAX

01-04-2010, 02:47 AM
jAZ Supporter Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Tucson, AZ Casino cash: $9817493	YAC I noticed how important yards/attempt was in calculating the QB rating. I was curious how the Chiefs stacked up to the NE and AZ offenses in YAC during 2009. I couldn't get a game/game figure for players, so I counted all of Longs and Chambers yards to as well as LJ's. That's probably an inflated number by maybe 50 yards, so I've rounded accordingly. KC, 1100 YAC NE, 1900 YAC AZ, 1450 YAC Other noteable teams... DAL, 1700 YAC DEN, 1550 YAC DET, 1450 YAC GNB, 1700 YAC HOU, 1700 YAC IND, 1700 YAC MIN, 1700 YAC NOR, 1900 YAC SEA, 1550 YAC SDG, 1650 YAC Our top 5 guys in 2009: Code: Jamaal Charles, RB KAN 204 Chris Chambers, WR KAN 153 Dwayne Bowe, WR KAN 146 Bobby Wade, WR KAN 103 Mark Bradley, WR KAN 95 Charles was #68, Chambers was #112, Bowe was #119. Our to 5 guys in 2008: Code: Dwayne Bowe, WR KAN 386 Jamaal Charles, RB KAN 309 Tony Gonzalez, TE KAN 258 Larry Johnson, RB KAN 109 Devard Darling, WR KAN 107 Bowe was #22 in the league, Charles was #44, Gonzo was #62. So we had 3 players in 2008 who were MUCH better at YAC in 2008 than any player in 2009. Why is that? Bowe's numbers are down somewhat because of his 4 games suspension. But Charles played much more, though probably less as a pass catching back?
Posts: 24,800

01-04-2010, 02:59 AM	#2
jAZ Supporter Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: Tucson, AZ Casino cash: $9817493	And for the record, 2007 Chiefs: Code: Dwayne Bowe, WR KAN 354 Tony Gonzalez, TE KAN 297 Larry Johnson, RB KAN 254 Kolby Smith, RB KAN 155 Michael Bennett, RB KAN 119 So the drop isn't just a product of the "Pistol" of 2008. It's different than past seasons and we are bad at it this year.
Posts: 24,800

01-04-2010, 07:11 AM	#3
jjjayb MVP Join Date: Sep 2003 Location: Back in K.C. baby!!!! Casino cash: $4423433	Because our QB doesn't hit guys in stride? His innaccuracy causes them to come back to the ball, dive for the ball etc..
Posts: 7,053

01-04-2010, 07:35 AM	#4
jspchief BAMF Join Date: Apr 2004 Location: Your Face Casino cash: $9998710	I remember Bowe in his rookie year was always instantly turning upfield with his receptions. In fact, he reminded me a lot of Terrel Owens in the way he tried to turn every catch into something more. Now It's all he can do just to hang on to the damn ball. What the hell happened? __________________ Courage is not the absence of fear but rather the judgment that something is more important than fear. The brave may not live forever but the cautious do not live at all.
Posts: 27,207

01-04-2010, 10:42 AM	#6
JohninGpt Dammit Join Date: Mar 2001 Location: Busted Stick, IT Casino cash: $4228304	YAK
Posts: 4,161

01-04-2010, 10:46 AM	#7
HonestChieffan Seeking the Truth daily Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: In the Country in MO Casino cash: $-1585691	Our guys must need to run further after they catch it. Wait...our guys generally dont catch it. __________________ "We read books for knowledge; We read the Bible for wisdom!"
Posts: 54,798

01-04-2010, 10:46 AM	#8
patteeu The 23rd Pillar Join Date: Sep 2002 Casino cash: $10019237	Are you talking about "yards after catch" or "yards/attempt"? Your OP confused me. __________________ “Boy, you all want power. God, I hope you never get it.” - Lindsay Graham
Posts: 110,871

01-04-2010, 12:32 PM	#13
FAX testing ... 1, 2, 3 Join Date: Oct 2004 Location: Tennessee Casino cash: $6753759	Our passing game looks a whole lot like 5 club-footed monkeys in a hot potato scrum. It's an interesting statistic, to be sure, Mr. jAZ. We once proved beyond a shadow of a doubt that Yards Per Attempt (a related stat) has a significant impact on win/loss records. My guess is that YAC is dependent upon A) Proper route running, B) Ability of WR to gain separation, C) Ball placement, and D) Desire ... not necessarily in that order. Since we are struggling in practically every one of those categories, it makes sense that our overall YAC is low. FAX
Posts: 44,492

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