Chiefs Pats scoring discussion.

[O.city]

After Mathieu's pick 6 last night,should Andy have went for 2? They were up 15, a 2 point conversion puts you up 3 scores and essentially ends the game.

[smithandrew051]

Kick it.

2 TDs AND 2 2-Point Conversions would be extremely difficult for any offense, let alone that Patriots offense.

[Why Not?]

Kick. If your defense gives up two TD’s and two 2pt conversions in the 4th quarter to a Hoyer/Stidham led team, **** you anyway

[O.city]

I get kicking it, but you have your best unit being your offense with a chance to end the game.

If you don't get it, you're still up 15.

[VAGOMO 4 LIFE!]

Kick it but kick it from 55 since Butker can make consecutive kicks through the uprights on kickoffs but can’t make extra points. A reason I believe it’s Townsends fault

[Marcellus]

Originally Posted by O.city

I get kicking it, but you have your best unit being your offense with a chance to end the game.

If you don't get it, you're still up 15.

16 forces 2 TDs with 2 2pt conversions just to tie, that's a tough road to hoe. Conversion rate is somewhere around 50%.

[O.city]

Originally Posted by Marcellus

16 forces 2 TDs with 2 2pt conversions just to tie, that's a tough road to hoe. Conversion rate is somewhere around 50%.

It still gives them a potential path to a tie though. If you get it, it doesnt'.

[smithandrew051]

If the Patriots don’t convert BOTH 2-point conversions, then it becomes a 3 possession game.

I give the Chiefs a 70% chance of converting for 2. I also give them a 95% chance of making the PAT.

I give the Patriots about a 30% chance of converting for 2.

So if the Chiefs kick, we have a 95% chance of the margin being 16. 30% x 30% is 9%, which is New England’s chances of tying (and that assumes they can score 2 unanswered TDs). The inverse is a 91% chance that the game becomes 3 possessions. Multiply that by 95% and you get an 86.45% of a 3 possession game, because we kicked the PAT.

I’ll take the 86.45% chance over the 70% chance.

There are absolutely ZERO flaws in my logic.

[CasselGotPeedOn]

Find me stats on how many teams in the history of football have scored two touchdowns and converted two 2 point conversions in a row. I'll wait.

[KC Hawks]

Originally Posted by CasselGotPeedOn

Find me stats on how many teams in the history of football have scored two touchdowns and converted two 2 point conversions in a row. I'll wait.

Only one I can think of recently was the Patriots against Atlanta in the SB.

[lcarus]

If it were up to me I'd absolutely go for the 2 point conversion. In that situation the reward outweighs the risk.

[Wallcrawler]

Don't chase points. You only go for two if youve lost all faith in Butker.

[wazu]

The Chiefs should go for 2 every time.

[Rain Man]

Let's assume that we make 48 percent of 2-point conversions (league average - can't find the Chiefs' percentage) and 94 percent of extra points (Butker's historic average).

If you go for the 2-point play, there's a ...

48 percent chance that the bad guys will need 2 TDs and EPs and an FG to tie it. (And change 1 EP to a 2-point play to win it.)
52 percent chance that the bad guys will need 2 TDs, 1 EP and 1 2-point play to tie it. (And change 1 EP to a 2-point play to win it.)

If you go for the 1-point play, there's a

94 percent change that the bad guys will need 2 TDs and 2 2-point plays to tie it. (And another score to win it.)
6 percent chance that the bad guys will need will need 2 TDs, 1 EP and 1 2-point play to tie it. (And change 1 EP to a 2-point play to win it.)


By kicking it, you're massively decreasing the likelihood that 2 TDs, 1 EP and 1 2-point play will make a difference. You're requiring them to get 2 2-point plays after touchdowns, which in combination will happen only 23 percent of the time even if they get the touchdowns.

You're giving yourself a 48 percent chance of completely putting the game out of reach with a 3-score differential, but if they can score two touchdowns they now have a 45 percent chance of tying it up rather than 23 percent chance, and they could also go for the win in that case.

In summary, I guess it depends on how likely you think it is that they can score two touchdowns, because these tradeoffs are purely a matter of taste. Kicking it nearly guarantees a lot of difficulty, while going for 2 could effectively end the game but leaves a small window of opportunity for the bad guys.

I might change my vote to kicking it.

[wazu]

The Chiefs 2 point conversion rate was 50% in 2018, 50% in 2019, and so far in 2020 is 100%.