First Round Mock 2.0 (4/4/22)

[kccrow]

My ever-evolving work in progress... Hit me with it boys.

1) Seattle Seahawks (JAX) | Malik Willis, QB, Liberty
The only reference for a trade of the 1st overall pick was in 2016 when the Rams moved up to take Jared Goff. The Titans received a net value of 755 points (Rich Hill model) for the pick. I would assume teams start with a base of 750 for the pick and not 1000 as Hill has. With that, I have the Seahawks giving up a good chunk of their capital from the Wilson trade, sending the 9th overall, 2nd round pick #40, 2nd round pick #41, 5th round pick #152, and their 2023 2nd round pick to Jacksonville for the 1st overall in order to get ahead of the Lions. This leaves Seattle with a 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th this year. They retain the extra 1st they got from Denver next year. Seattle gets their QB of the future with a guy I think is just a shorter version of Josh Allen and will likely have similar growing pains that could be well worth it by year 3.

2) Detroit Lions | Aidan Hutchinson, DE, Michigan
The Lions desperately need a better QB situation but there's not one I'd put on par with Willis in this class. It's not worth passing on Huthcinson to trade out of this spot though as he could be a trascendent talent with a floor that appears to be Joey Bosa. The cries will be loud to keep the former Wolverine in Michigan.

3) Houston Texans | Kayvon Thibodeaux, DE, Oregon
The Texans desperately need to establish an identity on defense. Pairing Thibodeaux with Jon Greenard would be an excellent start. I've seen Thibodeaux dropping in mocks lately but I don't believe that's what will happen when draft day rolls around. The kid is talented and has the production to back it up, unlike Trayvon Walker who is all about measurements at this point.

4) New Orleans Saints (NYJ) | Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh
The Saints have clearly been enamored with Kenny Pickett throughout the draft process and they didn't make a head-scratcher of a move with the Eagles ahead of the draft for nothing (a trade I feel the Saints won by the way). The Saints feel like 4th overall is the most logical landing spot for the Saints given the dynamics surrounding the top 3 picks. Pickett may be the draft's best passer right now, even if I feel like his ceiling is much lower than Malik Willis.

New Orleans sends the 16th and 19th overall picks along with round 2 pick #49 to New York for the 4th overall pick and round 2 pick #38.

5) New York Giants | Kyle Hamilton, S, Notre Dame
Hamilton has long been considered a top 5 pick but concerns over his speed could be in play. That said, his tape tells the tale of a player that's going to be highly sought after regardless of his time in shorts. The Giants get a guy that can be an absolute hammer in the box but has the range to make plays in coverage.

6) Carolina Panthers | Evan Neal, OT, Alabama
The Panthers may be in full shock and awe seeing Willis and Pickett both go in the top 5, but no position is more important in the sport. Rhule may be married to Darnold for 2022 unless he can make a play later on. Meanwhile, the Panthers need to address the LT spot in a bad way (unless they feel Brady Christensen can hold it down). Evan Neal falls in their laps here, which is a pretty good consolation prize. He's a huge human, which will help them both in the run game and the pass game.

7) New York Jets (CHI via NYG) | Trayvon Walker, DE, Georgia
The Jets moved out of the 4 spot to give New Orleans the rights to Kenny Pickett. Now they look to come back up a little to ensure they get the guy they passed on to make the deal. The Jets need pass rush help and Walker may have the most upside of any player in this draft. Robert Saleh has made it clear that addressing the defensive front is priority one this offseason and they could get a gem plus a truckload of picks.
New York Jets send the 10th overall and 3rd round pick #69 to the New York Giants for the 7th overall and 5th round pick #173

8) Atlanta Falcons | Garrett Wilson, WR, Ohio State
The Falcons stand pat here at the 8 spot, not rushing any decision at QB to replace Matt Ryan. This may prove to be the smart move with Mariota in house to hold down the fort while they establish pieces around a would-be rookie. One thing is certain, the Falcons had little other than stud pass catcher Kyle Pitts. Wilson is an explosive receiver with #1 potential in a league that has become fixated on speedy wideouts.

9) Jacksonville Jaguars (DEN via SEA) | Ikem Ekwonu, OT, NC State
If the Jags stand pat at #1 then I could easily see them taking the "safe" edge in Aidan Hutchinson but in a trade down I see it as much less likely. What the Jags really need to do is improve their atrocious tackles on offense. It's almost mind-numbing that they used the franchise tag on Cam Robinson who is easily one of the worst, if not the worst, starting left tackles in football. His counterpart on the right side is worse. Ekownu would solidify the left side of the Oline and let them move Robinson to the right or to the bench and better protect their franchise investment.

10) New York Giants (SEA via NYJ) | Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner, CB, Cincinnati
In my earlier rendition of this same mock, which I've altered due to the New Orleans deal, I had the Giants going with linebacker Devin Lloyd. That said, it seems to remain a hot topic that their GM is intent on moving star CB James Bradberry. Should that happen, the Giants are paper thin at the position which makes getting better here an obvious choice. With a draft deep at LB, I have them waiting and instead going with the top CB in Gardner who has been shutdown in every possible way during his time at Cincinnati.

11) Washington Commanders | Devin Lloyd, LB, Utah
Ron Rivera seems intent on moving Jamin Davis to OLB in 2022, which makes the need at MLB glaring given that Cole Holcomb doesn't really fit that role either. The Commanders don't have too many really glaring needs outside of WR, CB, and IOL so the draft looks deep at all of them. Rivera goes for his next great MLB by taking the do-everything Devin Lloyd. Lloyd is a near prototype with solid coverage, blitzing, and high football intelligence to always be in the right place.

12) Minnesota Vikings | Trent McDuffie, CB, Washington
The Vikings are thin on the perimiter after years of striking out. McDuffie is a prospect that looks safe. He's good in just about every facet of the game. While he has less than ideal size, his ability to maintain tight coverage and compete are second to none in this group. His hips and feet are elite and he has explosive elements to his game. If he were a couple inches taller, he'd probably be the top CB off the board.

13) Houston Texans (CLE) | Drake London, WR, USC
The Texan took an identity player on defense at #3 with Thibodeaux and now they get one, finally, on offense with Drake London. After missing DeAndre Hopkins since the day they traded him away, the Texans get a similar type of receiver in London who can help be a focus piece for Davis Mills.

14) Baltimore Ravens | Trevor Penning, OT, Northern Iowa
The Ravens had Jordan Davis fall in their laps but the signing of Michael Pierce to a 3-year deal probably nullifies that spend. The Ravens have had issues at tackle since trading away Orlando Brown Jr to the Chiefs with weakness at RT and a LT in Ronnie Stanley who always ends up on the injury report. Penning gives them a nasty player that can play either side, which will help keep them competitive if Stanley goes down again.

15) Philadelphia Eagles (MIA) | Jermaine Johnson II, DE, Florida State
It's going to be interesting to see what the Eagles defense will morph into this year after adding Kyzir White as a hybrid WLB and Hasson Reddick as a pass rushing OLB. With White in the mix, they don't have to press for an LB early but they will still need to address it. Reddick does little to change the dynamic at DE though, where they'll likely still employ a 4-man front. Johnson will provide a nice compliment to Josh Sweat on the outside and help put Graham and Barnett into rotation rather than starting roles.

16) New York Jets (IND via PHI and NO) | Charles Cross, OT, Mississippi State
The Jets cannot trust Mekhi Becton to stay health at LT so taking one and moving Becton to RT may be the best-case scenario for them. While they really liked George Fant last year at LT, he's in the final year of a deal and turns 30 before the season starts. Fant is clearly not the future answer to the Jets problems but he'd be a top-shelf swing tackle and starter if either youngster goes down. Meanwhile, Charles Cross could be the absolute best pass-blocking LT in the draft and may go significantly higher than I have him slated here. Cross would give the Jets a pretty talented duo and give their young QB alot of security.

17) Los Angeles Chargers | Jordan Davis, DT, Georgia
The Chargers have pieced together a strong roster that could win them the West this year but they do have a noticable hole at NT next to Jerry Tillery. With Davis in the fold, the Chargers would boast the best defensive front 4 in football, which is paramount if they want to upend the Chiefs.

18) Philadelphia Eagles (NO) | Jameson Williams, WR, Alabama
I thought long and hard about adding a dynamic piece in the secondary here, such as Stingley or Daxton Hill but had to put Williams in. The Eagles are one of the few teams that can truly afford the luxury of picking Williams and they also have enough talent at the position to keep Williams locked down until he's 100% ready to go. All that said, Williams is a dynamic player when healthy and will add tremendous downfield potential opposite the reliable DeVonta Smith.

19) New York Jets (PHI via NO) | Derek Stingley Jr., CB, LSU
No doubt about it, I have serious reservations putting Stingley in the top-20 of this draft. That said, Stingley has elite traits that are hard to ignore regardless of the on-field performance the past couple of seasons. If Stingley can get healthy and turn back into his Freshman self, he's could be the best secondary player in this draft and be the next Lattimore. Robert Saleh is a good coach to unlock his insane potential.

20) Pittsburgh Steelers | Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati
It's no secret that Pittsburgh needs a QB. After Willis and Pickett I just don't see a 1st round guy, but Ridder has the athleticism that Mike Tomlin keeps hitting on and he has prototypical size. Ridder's development is lacking overall and probably isn't falling into the 50's for Pittsburgh to get later. I have them taking a shot on the kid with the hopes they can reign in all those traits and make him a good player in the NFL.

21) Kansas City Chiefs (NE) | George Karlaftis, DE, Purdue
The Chiefs are desperate for pass rush help and Karlaftis represents the last true 1st round talent at the position sans Sam Williams who I have later due to the off-the-field issue. While there are other players they could easily look at, Karlaftis is the type of guy you want on a defense. The thing about Karlaftis is that he's being dropped because he didn't run super fast in shorts. That's great, but look at his explosive numbers in the vertical and broad jump to go with a solid bench. Compare his 40 to the Bosa brothers. I'm good with Karlaftis. He reminds me a ton of Justin Smith and Ryan Kerrigan and if I can get anywhere between those two guys, I think he's well worth the 21st pick. The Chiefs send the Patriots the 29th overall, 3rd round pick #94 and 4th round pick #135.

22) Green Bay Packers (LV) | DeVonte Wyatt, DT, Georgia
The Packers signed Jarran Reed to a one-year deal but need more help on the field overall with Lowry and Clark. Wyatt gives them a long-term option at DE and looks like a future stud. The Packers probably were nervous about losing Wyatt to the Chiefs in the trade up but they just wanted to get in front of the Cardinals and Cowboys for Karlaftis.

23) Arizona Cardinals | Chris Olave, WR, Ohio State
The Cardinals would love to get defensive line here, anywhere, but with Karlaftis and Wyatt coming off the board right in front of them they may need to look elsewhere. The best value on the board is Ohio State's Chris Olave who can step in day 1 and replace Christian Kirk on the outside and keep Rondale Moore in the slot.

24) Dallas Cowboys | Tyler Linderbaum, OC, Iowa
One thing Jerry Jones loves to do is maintain a strong offensive line and Tyler Biadasz just didn't cut it at center last year. Meanwhile, Linderbaum has the look of a future all pro at the position and is an easy plug-and-play starter. The Cowboys also have a big hole at LG but this is easy value here.

25) Buffalo Bills | Andrew Booth, CB, Clemson
The Bills don't have too many gaping holes as a team that has went on strong playoff runs the past couple of seasons and show no signs of slowing down. They do have an issue at CB though with Dane Jackson penciled in as a starter and Tre'Davious White coming back from an ACL tear. The should try to get stronger at the position, which will also help them slow down the strong passing attacks in the AFC. Booth is an athletic and physical corner with all the tools and will be a good #2 with #1 potential.

26) Tennessee Titans | Travis Jones, NT, Connecticut
The Titans are a strong playoff contender but they could be looking for an heir to Ryan Tannehill under center. That said, I don't think the time is now or at least not round 1. One piece the Titans are sorely lacking heading into the draft is starting NT with Teair Tart and Naquan Jones penciled in as the 1 and 2 there. That's not exactly striking fear into anyone. Jones can provide the Titans with an anchor at the position that also has enough juice to push the pocket.

27) Detroit Lions (TB) | Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
The Lions got a playmaker for their defense by taking Hutchinson at #2 overall and now I see them going after a playmaker for their offense with Burks. Burks has the potential to be a #1 outside target and would provide a nice trio for Detroit with DJ Chark and Amon-Ra St. Brown. The leap the Packers and Chiefs to get him by sending their 32nd overall from LA and their 3rd round pick #97.

28) Green Bay Packers | Nakobe Dean, LB, Georgia
The Packers did alot so far to shore up their leaky front 7 by signing Jarran Reid from KC and I have them drafting Wyatt at 22. Re-signing De'Vondre Campbell was mission critical but they should upgrade from Krys Barnes next to him. I have them doing exactly that with the ultra-athletic Dean still on the board. It's true that GB needs WR help but in true Packers' fashion, that'll wait until round 2.

29) New England Patriots (SF via MIA and KC) | Daxton Hill, S, Michigan
Bill re-signed 35-year-old Devin McCourty to a 1-year deal for one last ride into the sunset this offseason but there's no doubt he'll be looking for a replacement to his superstar safety. It really comes down to Hill vs Pitre here. Both bring solid tape and athleticism to the table and both can play multiple positions. Hill posesses slightly more freakish athleticsm with a 4.38 40 and an absurd 6.57 3-cone (Bill's favorite metric for DBs and WRs).

30) Kansas City Chiefs | Jalen Pitre, S, Baylor
In my opinion, Pitre is going to go surprisingly high in this draft thanks to a stellar workout and superb tape. Pitre is a jack-of-all-trades player that can line up in the slot, outside in man, in the deep 3rd, and everywhere in between. The Chiefs value a player like Pitre as evidenced by their usage of Tyrann Mathieu. Pitre is a premier player in this class and posted a 4.41 40 to go with a 6.74 3-cone. The Chiefs are rumored to have shown alot of interest.

31) Cincinnati Bengals | Kaiir Elam, CB, Florida
The Bengals addressed Oline heavily in free agency by adding Ted Karras at OC and Alex Cappa at RG so the play now is probably to do more in their secondary to help them get over the hump. Elam provides them with a corner capable of becoming the Alpha in the back end by being able to play all coverage and get his hands on the football.

32) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (LA via DET) | Trey McBride, TE, Colorado State
The Bucs probably aren't going to take a QB early after taking a similar type in Kyle Trask in the 2nd last year. I have them moving down with Detroit with an eye on loading up for the future. Nothing is a new (or vet for that matter) QB's best friend quite like a quality TE. With Gronk an unknown, that leaves Brate as the only real option on the roster and he's nothing but a #2 type at best. McBride is highly athletic and highly productive plus he'll have the benefit of a year with Tom Brady to get acclimated to the pros.

[GloucesterChief]

This is already out of date.

[The Franchise]

Saints and Eagles ****ed you.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by GloucesterChief

This is already out of date.

I haven't been tuned in to any goings-on today, I'm guessing something happened...

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I haven't been tuned in to any goings-on today, I'm guessing something happened...

The Saints are acquiring the 16th- and 19th-overall picks and a sixth-round selection (No. 194) in this month's draft in a trade with the Eagles, the teams announced Monday. New Orleans is sending Philadelphia the 18th-overall pick as part of a package that also includes a 2023 first-rounder, a 2024 second-rounder, a 2022 pick from the third round (No. 101) and a seventh-round selection (No. 237) in April's draft.

Link:

https://www.nfl.com/news/saints-add-...de-with-eagles

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by The Franchise

Saints and Eagles ****ed you.

Just read the trade... WTF are the Saints doing?

Trading away future capital right now to not guarantee "a guy" is odd. Not only that, they need a QB either now or next year. They just traded away the next year option.

So now it's down to what they can do with what they just got. You would hope this trade sets up another they have already discussed, but wow.

They could get to 3 if they packaged both of those picks to Houston. It'd take adding their 2 to get to #2. They pretty much can't get to #1. So, in no way are they guaranteeing they get a specific guy at QB. Jacksonville could send the #1 to a few other teams that have a top 10 selection and future capital as I have outlined here.

If they are fine with Willis or Pickett, then going to #2 makes plenty of sense. They'd otherwise need to wait for the draft and see how things start to unfold and move then but at that point, a team could wow another with an offer that wasn't discussed preliminarily.

This is a very, very odd development.

I'll have to rethink the top of this draft a bit. No doubt NO has to make another move.

[kccrow]

Do you guys think the Saints think they can win now with Jameis at QB for the next 2 years?

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Just read the trade... WTF are the Saints doing?

Trading away future capital right now to not guarantee "a guy" is odd. Not only that, they need a QB either now or next year. They just traded away the next year option.

So now it's down to what they can do with what they just got. You would hope this trade sets up another they have already discussed, but wow.

They could get to 3 if they packaged both of those picks to Houston. It'd take adding their 2 to get to #2. They pretty much can't get to #1. So, in no way are they guaranteeing they get a specific guy at QB. Jacksonville could send the #1 to a few other teams that have a top 10 selection and future capital as I have outlined here.

If they are fine with Willis or Pickett, then going to #2 makes plenty of sense. They'd otherwise need to wait for the draft and see how things start to unfold and move then but at that point, a team could wow another with an offer that wasn't discussed preliminarily.

This is a very, very odd development.

I'll have to rethink the top of this draft a bit. No doubt NO has to make another move.

I said the same thing when I heard it today. They WILL without a doubt, package those picks to move up to get Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh. I have NO doubt - they are putting too much on the line not to. Just my .02

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Stryker

I said the same thing when I heard it today. They WILL without a doubt, package those picks to move up to get Kenny Pickett, QB, Pittsburgh. I have NO doubt - they are putting too much on the line not to. Just my .02

I'm thinking the same thing. They put Pickett through the wringer at the Combine according to Pickett. I just didn't think they could pull off moving up high enough to get him. I firmly believe Willis and Pickett are both going in the top 5, I'm more trying to gauge who's going to move out to let it happen.

Jacksonville has stated they are open to trading out of the 1 spot. Seattle really likes Willis from what I've seen. They can get it done. The Saints love Pickett but so does Atlanta and Carolina and they both have top 10 picks. It's going to get interesting.

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I'm thinking the same thing. They put Pickett through the wringer at the Combine according to Pickett. I just didn't think they could pull off moving up high enough to get him. I firmly believe Willis and Pickett are both going in the top 5, I'm more trying to gauge who's going to move out to let it happen.

Jacksonville has stated they are open to trading out of the 1 spot. Seattle really likes Willis from what I've seen. They can get it done. The Saints love Pickett but so does Atlanta and Carolina and they both have top 10 picks. It's going to get interesting.

Hit the Jets at 4 or the Giants at 5 - leap frog both Carolina and Atlanta - they could easily move into 5 with those 2 picks. I believe Giants @ 5 is the Saints target trading partner.

[kccrow]

I could see Jacksonville moving from 1, they have a good pass rusher in Allen. They don't have to take Hutchinson or Thibodeaux and would get a lot of pieces to put around their franchise QB by moving out.

What I can't see is Detroit moving out of 2. They could definitely stand to upgrade at QB and if Willis or Pickett go at 1, they could take whoever falls at 2. That said, do they feel either is a sure-fire upgrade over Goff? If they don't, then why also would they pass on their absolute biggest need and outstanding talent in Hutchinson? Zero sense move for them, especially if they are dropping to the teens, essentially not guaranteeing themselves any pass rushers.

So if I expect Detroit won't move, that leaves Houston next on the docket. Houston seems married to Davis Mills, at least for now, but would they want to try to upgrade at QB too? It's the same damned situation as Detroit. Either you take the QB or you take an elite pass rusher in Thibodeaux. I can't see them wanting to move either.

The Jets are kind of the next team that maybe would and could move at 4. They need a CB, they need a pass rusher, and they could use a playmaker at WR. Having 10, 16, and 19 would be a solid bet to get all 3 but they'd probably have to swing a 3rd or 4th back to NO.

And then you have the conundrum for the Saints where what do they do at LT? Do they trust James Hurst to hold down the fort for what could be two seasons?

Intersting. Very intersting.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Stryker

Hit the Jets at 4 or the Giants at 5 - leap frog both Carolina and Atlanta - they could easily move into 5 with those 2 picks. I believe Giants @ 5 is the Saints target trading partner.

Agree. I was typing my long post before I saw this. It just feels like it has to be 4 or 5. To get Detroit or Houston to move off their spot I think would take a monumental overpayment.

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Agree. I was typing my long post before I saw this. It just feels like it has to be 4 or 5. To get Detroit or Houston to move off their spot I think would take a monumental overpayment.

For the Saints, it's already monumental overpayment. They have now reached the point of no return. This is the most draft sacrifice since the Ricky Williams trade in my opinion. For them, there is no turning back.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Stryker

For the Saints, it's already monumental overpayment. They have now reached the point of no return. This is the most draft sacrifice since the Ricky Williams trade in my opinion. For them, there is no turning back.

Nowhere near that sort of sacrifice in my opinion.

They gave up a 2nd (2 years out) and 3rd to move from 18 to 16, 237 to 194, and swap out next year's 1 for this year's 1 (19). That's not at all terrible to me. From a value chart perspective, the Eagles are the ones that got fleeced.

Even if they move to 4th overall and get nothing swung back to them, you look at the fact that they give up 1-18, 3-101, 7-237, 2023 1, 2024 2 for 1-4 and 6-194. That's not bad, at all. We've seen faaaaaaaaar worse.

[Stryker]

Originally Posted by kccrow

Nowhere near that sort of sacrifice in my opinion.

They gave up a 2nd (2 years out) and 3rd to move from 18 to 16, 237 to 194, and swap out next year's 1 for this year's 1 (19). That's not at all terrible to me. From a value chart perspective, the Eagles are the ones that got fleeced.

Even if they move to 4th overall and get nothing swung back to them, you look at the fact that they give up 1-18, 3-101, 7-237, 2023 1, 2024 2 for 1-4 and 6-194. That's not bad, at all. We've seen faaaaaaaaar worse.

Ok, I stand corrected. Thank you kind sir!