Chiefs Analytics talk

O.city · 10-03-2022, 09:33 AM

Was doing some reading around this morning in between work stuff.

Alot of talk about the Ravens situation yesterday. Analytically, it looks like it was the right call in terms of going for a TD vs kicking. A TD theoretically gave them an 84% chance of winning vs 62% with kicking a fg.

Now math isn't my strong suite, but in this case, do you not also need to take into account not scoring and giving them the ball being tied?

If I go for it and don't get it ie turn it over on downs, I'm gonna have the best chance of losing.

Either situation, you have to have your defense not give up a TD in order to win in regulation. I think if you kick it, you're probably a worst case scenario losing to a TD but more likely at worst you're probably going into OT as the Bills theoretically would have slowed her down once in FG range?

10-03-2022, 09:33 AM	Topic Starter
O.city In Search of a Life Join Date: Jul 2009 Casino cash: $-545936	Analytics talk Was doing some reading around this morning in between work stuff. Alot of talk about the Ravens situation yesterday. Analytically, it looks like it was the right call in terms of going for a TD vs kicking. A TD theoretically gave them an 84% chance of winning vs 62% with kicking a fg. Now math isn't my strong suite, but in this case, do you not also need to take into account not scoring and giving them the ball being tied? If I go for it and don't get it ie turn it over on downs, I'm gonna have the best chance of losing. Either situation, you have to have your defense not give up a TD in order to win in regulation. I think if you kick it, you're probably a worst case scenario losing to a TD but more likely at worst you're probably going into OT as the Bills theoretically would have slowed her down once in FG range?
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