Football Drafting: Will Shields vs. a Quarterback.

**Rain Man** · 10:00 PM

I realize that there are a lot of variable in evaluating quarterbacks, but just for grins let's use pro bowls as a measure.

Will Shields was a 12-time pro bowler at right guard. If you had the chance to draft Will Shields or draft a quarterback, how many pro bowls would the quarterback need to have to make him a better value?

Edit: Added later is a list of all quarterbacks who started their careers after 1970 and had at least 10,000 passing yards and are retired.

9 Pro Bowls – Dan Marino, Warren Moon, John Elway, Brett Favre

8 Pro Bowls – Joe Montana

7 Pro Bowls – Steve Young

6 Pro Bowls – Troy Aikman, Dan Fouts

5 Pro Bowls

4 Pro Bowls – Jim Kelly, Boomer Esiason, Drew Bledsoe, Ken Anderson, Randall Cunningham, Rich Gannon, Ken Stabler

3 Pro Bowls – Dave Krieg, Mark Brunell, Steve McNair, Terry Bradshaw, Michael Vick (assuming no comeback)

2 Pro Bowls – Mark Rypien, Phil Simms, Vinny Testaverde, Chris Chandler, Trent Green, Joe Theisman, Ken O’Brien, Steve Bartkowski, Archie Manning, Neil Lomax

1 Pro Bowl – Neil O’Donnell, Jeff Hostetler, Jim Everett, Bobby Hebert, Wade Wilson, Jim Harbaugh, Jim McMahon, Steve Beuerlein, Jake Plummer, Ron Jaworski, Tommy Kramer, Brian Sipe, Bernie Kosar, Danny White, Jeff Blake, Trent Dilfer, Jay Schroeder, Chris Miller, Dan Pastorini, Bert Jones, Bill Kenney, Elvis Grbac, Kordell Stewart, Doug Flutie, Don Majkowski, Steve Bono

0 Pro Bowls – Jeff George, Stan Humphries, Rick Mirer, Rodney Peete, Bubby Brister, Steve DeBerg, Joe Ferguson, Steve Grogan, Jim Plunkett, Lynn Dickey, Jim Zorn, Richard Todd, Aaron Brooks, Doug Williams, Mike Tomczak, Scott Mitchell, Erik Kramer, Tony Banks, Joey Harrington, Marc Wilson, Gary Danielson, Jay Fiedler, Vince Ferragamo, Tony Eason, Tim Couch, Billy Joe Tolliver, Eric Hipple, Mike Phipps, Dave Brown, Jack Trudeau, Mark Malone, Charlie Batch

**DeezNutz** · 01-24-2009, 06:09 PM

I think the answer could literally be none.

He could hover above the average but below the Pro-Bowl level and be a better overall value.

Hammock Parties · 01-24-2009, 06:10 PM

Will Shields could play right tackle. We need that.

**Bowser** · 01-24-2009, 06:12 PM

Good question, very "chicken or the egg". Is the guard better because of the high QB play, or is the QB better because of the high guard play? I'll go with the guard, because essentially, all NFL teams live and die by their offensive and defensive lines.

For your question, I'd say a QB needs to make a minimum 6 pro bowls to make up for the loss of the guard, but that probably doesn't happen WITHOUT the guard.

I can see quantum theory coming into play here.

KChiefs1 · 01-24-2009, 06:13 PM

Will Shields is worthless because he was a guard.

FringeNC · 01-24-2009, 06:13 PM

Trent Green had a nice run here, including some Pro Bowls, and yet some claim it was a wasted draft pick.

bsp4444 · 01-24-2009, 06:14 PM

I think your own math shows why you draft a QB. For 12 years you had that offensive line position locked up. You probably needed to hit on at least two QB's to fill that same time frame. IMO.

**DeezNutz** · 01-24-2009, 06:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FringeNC

Trent Green had a nice run here, including some Pro Bowls, and yet some claim it was a wasted draft pick.

Because we gave up a 1st rounder for a 30-something QB.

It would be a lot nicer to use a similarly high pick on a 21-22 year-old QB who could lead the team for 15 years.

FringeNC · 01-24-2009, 06:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

Because we gave up a 1st rounder for a 30-something QB.

It would be a lot nicer to use a similarly high pick on a 21-22 year-old QB who could lead the team for 15 years.

No way. You have exclusive rights for a limited time, after which you pay market value for a first rounder. Getting the production we did out of Trent Green was worth far more than the value of the draft pick. It's not even remotely close.

**DeezNutz** · 01-24-2009, 06:21 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FringeNC

No way. You have exclusive rights for a limited time, after which you pay market value for a first rounder. Getting the production we did out of Trent Green was worth far more than the value of the draft pick. It's not even remotely close.

I'm not saying it was Herm for a 4th stupid, and it wasn't a "wasted" pick.

But if you're suggesting that acquiring a FA QB for a 1st rounder is preferable to using the same pick on actually drafting a QB (and hitting, which is the key), then I couldn't disagree more strongly.

FringeNC · 01-24-2009, 06:25 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

I'm not saying it was Herm for a 4th stupid, and it wasn't a "wasted" pick.

But if you're suggesting that acquiring a FA QB for a 1st rounder is preferable to using the same pick on actually drafting a QB (and hitting, which is the key), then I couldn't disagree more strongly.

Sure, I'd rather have Jay Cutler than Trent Green. What percentage of mid 1st round QB picks turn out to have the production of Jay Cutler....or Trent Green?

**DeezNutz** · 01-24-2009, 06:29 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by FringeNC

Sure, I'd rather have Jay Cutler than Trent Green. What percentage of mid 1st round QB picks turn out to have the production of Jay Cutler....or Trent Green?

Don't know, but finding Green is a lot easier. He's a nice, system guy. Someone an organization can win with, but not a franchise QB.

But I'm sure ready for this organization to start trying to find a Cutler (who was the #11 overall pick--we traded the #12 overall pick for Green). And it looks like we might have a shot at #3 overall.

**the Talking Can** · 01-24-2009, 06:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DeezNutz

I think the answer could literally be none.

He could hover above the average but below the Pro-Bowl level and be a better overall value.

this

the relative importance to a team of a QB and a guard is the difference between an engine and a radio...you know, to a car

a bad ass radio is cool and all, but basically irrelevant to the functioning of an automobile and plus you can get cheap ass radios everywhere that work just fine...

not to mention that we won jack shit with a probowl guard and no QB, so let's try it the other way next time, please...

**Bowser** · 01-24-2009, 06:32 PM

It's not my intention to break up the debate here, but I've got to throw in an opinion - calling a QB a "system guy" is a load of crap. ALL QB's are "system guys", you just have to find the right system to fit your QB. Trent Green was a helluva QB, regardless if he had Vermeil and Al Saunders there to coordinate to his strengths, and I wouldn't trade the five good years we had with him for much less than a Super Bowl or three.

**DeezNutz** · 01-24-2009, 06:33 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by the Talking Can

this

the relative importance to a team of a QB and a guard is the difference between an engine and a radio...you know, to a car

a bad ass radio is cool and all, but basically irrelevant to the functioning of an automobile and plus you can get cheap ass radios everywhere that work just fine...

not to mention that we won jack shit with a probowl guard and no QB, so let's try it the other way next time, please...

Pretty nice comparison, actually. If you would have specified that the car was a camaro, perhaps more would understand...

View Poll Results: The LOWEST number of pro bowls a QB would need to outvalue Will Shields is...
13 or more	3	4.76%
12	0	0%
11	0	0%
10	1	1.59%
9	0	0%
8	1	1.59%
7	1	1.59%
6	5	7.94%
5	6	9.52%
4	11	17.46%
3	6	9.52%
2	4	6.35%
1	4	6.35%
0	7	11.11%
No quarterback would ever be worth Will Shields	3	4.76%
Pro bowls are a stupid measure for this. I plan to insult you.	11	17.46%
Voters: 63. You may not vote on this poll

01-24-2009, 06:07 PM
Rain Man Seize life. Be an ermine. Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $-792449 VARSITY	Drafting: Will Shields vs. a Quarterback. I realize that there are a lot of variable in evaluating quarterbacks, but just for grins let's use pro bowls as a measure. Will Shields was a 12-time pro bowler at right guard. If you had the chance to draft Will Shields or draft a quarterback, how many pro bowls would the quarterback need to have to make him a better value? Edit: Added later is a list of all quarterbacks who started their careers after 1970 and had at least 10,000 passing yards and are retired. 9 Pro Bowls – Dan Marino, Warren Moon, John Elway, Brett Favre 8 Pro Bowls – Joe Montana 7 Pro Bowls – Steve Young 6 Pro Bowls – Troy Aikman, Dan Fouts 5 Pro Bowls 4 Pro Bowls – Jim Kelly, Boomer Esiason, Drew Bledsoe, Ken Anderson, Randall Cunningham, Rich Gannon, Ken Stabler 3 Pro Bowls – Dave Krieg, Mark Brunell, Steve McNair, Terry Bradshaw, Michael Vick (assuming no comeback) 2 Pro Bowls – Mark Rypien, Phil Simms, Vinny Testaverde, Chris Chandler, Trent Green, Joe Theisman, Ken O’Brien, Steve Bartkowski, Archie Manning, Neil Lomax 1 Pro Bowl – Neil O’Donnell, Jeff Hostetler, Jim Everett, Bobby Hebert, Wade Wilson, Jim Harbaugh, Jim McMahon, Steve Beuerlein, Jake Plummer, Ron Jaworski, Tommy Kramer, Brian Sipe, Bernie Kosar, Danny White, Jeff Blake, Trent Dilfer, Jay Schroeder, Chris Miller, Dan Pastorini, Bert Jones, Bill Kenney, Elvis Grbac, Kordell Stewart, Doug Flutie, Don Majkowski, Steve Bono 0 Pro Bowls – Jeff George, Stan Humphries, Rick Mirer, Rodney Peete, Bubby Brister, Steve DeBerg, Joe Ferguson, Steve Grogan, Jim Plunkett, Lynn Dickey, Jim Zorn, Richard Todd, Aaron Brooks, Doug Williams, Mike Tomczak, Scott Mitchell, Erik Kramer, Tony Banks, Joey Harrington, Marc Wilson, Gary Danielson, Jay Fiedler, Vince Ferragamo, Tony Eason, Tim Couch, Billy Joe Tolliver, Eric Hipple, Mike Phipps, Dave Brown, Jack Trudeau, Mark Malone, Charlie Batch Last edited by Rain Man; 01-24-2009 at 10:00 PM..
Posts: 145,617

01-24-2009, 06:12 PM	#4
Bowser sorta mod-ish Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: KC North Casino cash: $-318384	Good question, very "chicken or the egg". Is the guard better because of the high QB play, or is the QB better because of the high guard play? I'll go with the guard, because essentially, all NFL teams live and die by their offensive and defensive lines. For your question, I'd say a QB needs to make a minimum 6 pro bowls to make up for the loss of the guard, but that probably doesn't happen WITHOUT the guard. I can see quantum theory coming into play here.
Posts: 106,955

01-24-2009, 06:13 PM	#5
KChiefs1 I’m a Mahomo! Join Date: Aug 2004 Location: Mid-Missouri Casino cash: $6771021	Will Shields is worthless because he was a guard. __________________
Posts: 54,038

01-24-2009, 06:13 PM	#6
FringeNC MVP Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: NC Casino cash: $-1823986	Trent Green had a nice run here, including some Pro Bowls, and yet some claim it was a wasted draft pick.
Posts: 10,234

01-24-2009, 06:10 PM	#3
Hammock Parties I'll be back. Join Date: Nov 2002 Casino cash: $690478	Will Shields could play right tackle. We need that.
Posts: 297,713

01-24-2009, 06:14 PM	#7
bsp4444 Veteran Join Date: Mar 2003 Location: Blue Springs, MO Casino cash: $-2044695	I think your own math shows why you draft a QB. For 12 years you had that offensive line position locked up. You probably needed to hit on at least two QB's to fill that same time frame. IMO.
Posts: 2,057

01-24-2009, 06:32 PM	#14
Bowser sorta mod-ish Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: KC North Casino cash: $-318384	It's not my intention to break up the debate here, but I've got to throw in an opinion - calling a QB a "system guy" is a load of crap. ALL QB's are "system guys", you just have to find the right system to fit your QB. Trent Green was a helluva QB, regardless if he had Vermeil and Al Saunders there to coordinate to his strengths, and I wouldn't trade the five good years we had with him for much less than a Super Bowl or three.
Posts: 106,955