Royals Greinke is in an arms race for the AL Cy Young

Deberg_1990 · 10-06-2009, 10:39 AM

Why do i just get this feeling Greinke is going to get jobbed??

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/1492136.html

Votes are due today, so it’s a good time to look at perhaps the most interesting American League Cy Young race in years.

Zack Greinke, with a strong cyber-push from various baseball observers, at one point looked like a near lock. He’s still the favorite, but the weekend put doubt back in the minds of some.

First, Greinke gave up four runs in six innings at Minnesota, a game shown on national TV, a game Greinke called his biggest of the season. The defense didn’t help him much, and there is no shame in giving up the key hit to MVP-to-be Joe Mauer. But, still: If there are voters looking for a reason to not vote for Greinke, they probably will cite an underwhelming final start.

Then came Seattle’s Felix Hernandez, who gave up two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings Sunday, winning his 19th game — a total that tied for the league lead — and finishing with a 2.49 ERA.

Greinke has the American League’s lowest ERA at 2.16, but he trails by three in wins. No AL Cy Young winner has trailed by three wins since the award split to each league in 1967, and that’s the issue.

The case for Zack

This one’s pretty easy, and steeped in statistics and anecdotes.

Greinke’s 2.16 ERA is the best in the American League by a third of a run, and the lowest since Boston’s Pedro Martinez in 2000. There are five seasons since the 1994 strike that an AL pitcher has led in ERA by a third of a run with 200 innings, and all five won the Cy Young.

Greinke has by far the best statistical case, leading the league in ERA and walks and hits per innings pitched, and ranking second in strikeouts, strikeouts per walks, “quality starts,” shutouts, complete games and batting average against. He’s also last in run support while pitching in front of what advanced metrics rate as the league’s worst defense and a bullpen with the highest ERA.

It’s been written before, but outside of poisoning his food, it’s hard to think of how Greinke’s teammates could have helped him less.

Greinke had a 2.35 ERA in his no-decisions — that’s lower than anybody else’s overall ERA. Put another way, he has nine starts where he’s given up a total of 10 runs without getting a win.

There are some notions that Greinke hasn’t faced good enough competition, a silly thought when you consider he went 7-4 with a 1.50 ERA against winning teams.

Actually, Greinke has been so dominant this year that the real question shouldn’t be whether he’s the best pitcher in the league — of course he is — but to where his season ranks historically.

Here is the list of pitchers who have matched Greinke’s totals in innings, strikeouts and adjusted ERA+, which takes into account league and ballpark factors: Walter Johnson, Bob Gibson, Ron Guidry, Dwight Gooden, Martinez and Roger Clemens.

Or, you can always go to Eric Wedge. He managed the AL’s last two Cy Young winners with Cleveland, and he called Greinke’s 15-strikeout demolition of the Indians in August the best game he’d ever seen pitched in the big leagues.

It was a good game, to be sure. But, depending on how you judge, it’s just the sixth-best game he pitched this season.

The case against Zack

The greatness of Greinke went national this year, but the rest of the country did not live the every-fifth-game holiday like Kansas City did.

No matter what we know about the misleading nature of wins, that category is historically tied closer to the Cy Young Award than any other — including ERA.

Eight of the 14 AL winners since the strike have led or tied for the league lead in wins. Only five have led in ERA, three of whom also led in wins.

Greinke’s 16 wins are three off the league leaders, and only one AL winner since the strike has trailed by more than one win. That was Martinez in 2000, when he went 18-6 with a 1.74 ERA and 284 strikeouts in 217 innings — one of the best pitching seasons of all time.

For voters tied to wins, Hernandez provides good cover. He’s been better this season than many past Cy Young winners — tied for the lead with 19 wins, second with a 2.49 ERA, third with 238 2/3 innings, and fourth with 217 strikeouts. He’s the only pitcher to rank in the top five in each of those categories, and he has 23 “quality starts” in his last 24.

ESPN.com’s Cy Young predictor, put together by Rob Neyer and Bill James, has Hernandez winning.

Greinke pitched for one of the worst teams in the league, and the Royals were just 17-16 in his starts. If a voter can convince himself that Greinke’s stats don’t blow away the field, the Royals’ struggles may be the tie breaker that leans away from Greinke.

There are arguments to be made for others, too. Detroit’s Justin Verlander leads in wins, strikeouts and innings and won the Tigers’ biggest game of the year on three days’ rest on Sunday. Toronto’s Roy Halladay threw nine complete games and four shutouts with a 2.79 ERA. New York’s Mariano Rivera converted 44 of 46 saves for the best team in baseball, with 72 strikeouts and just 12 walks.

Demonpenz · 10-06-2009, 10:41 AM

these aint a scene, it's a god damn arms race

Frazod · 10-06-2009, 10:44 AM

Excellent chance to have two Cy Youngs and an MVP from Missouri teams.

Demonpenz · 10-06-2009, 10:46 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by frazod

Excellent chance to have two Cy Youngs and an MVP from Missouri teams.

carpenter Grienke and bentoncourt

Frazod · 10-06-2009, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Demonpenz

carpenter Grienke and bentoncourt

A little early to be drinking, isn't it?

Rooster · 10-06-2009, 10:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deberg_1990

Why do i just get this feeling Greinke is going to get jobbed??

Me too. Maybe it's just the Royals fan in me but I have a bad feeling.

CaliforniaChief · 10-06-2009, 11:00 AM

Maybe I missed it, but did it say when the announcement will be made?

teedubya · 10-06-2009, 11:07 AM

Felix Hernadez is gonna win this thing... and I bet that Roy Halladay gets the All Star nod over Zack, too. Oh... yeah, he's already been jobbed this year... why not job him again?

**gblowfish** · 10-06-2009, 11:20 AM

Greinke blew it by not beating Minnesota in his last start. He doesn't deserve it, can't win when it counts.

58kcfan89 · 10-06-2009, 11:23 AM

If they find a way to screw Zack outta this thing, I'm gunna quit watching baseball outside of the Royals (not that I watch much outside of KC, but I'll go into complete "I don't give a sh*t" mode). This crap is ridiculous.

Deberg_1990 · 10-06-2009, 11:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Greinke blew it by not beating Minnesota in his last start. He doesn't deserve it, can't win when it counts.

Its mentioned in this story above. Thats definately going to be a hurdle.

**Reaper16** · 10-06-2009, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by gblowfish

Greinke blew it by not beating Minnesota in his last start. He doesn't deserve it, can't win when it counts.

If that's not sarcastic then we can't be friends anymore.

Hootie · 10-06-2009, 11:27 AM

"It’s been written before, but outside of poisoning his food, it’s hard to think of how Greinke’s teammates could have helped him less."

Hilarious.

Hootie · 10-06-2009, 11:28 AM

He also beat Boston and Detroit down the stretch giving up ZERO earned runs against both of them...

...

If he doesn't win, he got jobbed, plain and simple. Put him on a team with a DEFENSE (let alone a bullpen or a competent lineup) and he wins 25 games. Put him on the Cardinals...

JFC.

**Reaper16** · 10-06-2009, 11:28 AM

There is actually zero argument against Zack that holds up to any scrutiny at all. If the Cy Young award has shifted from recognizing the best individual pitching performance in a given season to recognizing a good pitcher for a good team then I have no reason to give a **** about it anymore.

10-06-2009, 10:39 AM
Deberg_1990 In Search of a Life Join Date: Jan 2004 Location: San Antonio Tx. Casino cash: $94454	Greinke is in an arms race for the AL Cy Young Why do i just get this feeling Greinke is going to get jobbed?? http://www.kansascity.com/sports/story/1492136.html Votes are due today, so it’s a good time to look at perhaps the most interesting American League Cy Young race in years. Zack Greinke, with a strong cyber-push from various baseball observers, at one point looked like a near lock. He’s still the favorite, but the weekend put doubt back in the minds of some. First, Greinke gave up four runs in six innings at Minnesota, a game shown on national TV, a game Greinke called his biggest of the season. The defense didn’t help him much, and there is no shame in giving up the key hit to MVP-to-be Joe Mauer. But, still: If there are voters looking for a reason to not vote for Greinke, they probably will cite an underwhelming final start. Then came Seattle’s Felix Hernandez, who gave up two earned runs in 6 2/3 innings Sunday, winning his 19th game — a total that tied for the league lead — and finishing with a 2.49 ERA. Greinke has the American League’s lowest ERA at 2.16, but he trails by three in wins. No AL Cy Young winner has trailed by three wins since the award split to each league in 1967, and that’s the issue. The case for Zack This one’s pretty easy, and steeped in statistics and anecdotes. Greinke’s 2.16 ERA is the best in the American League by a third of a run, and the lowest since Boston’s Pedro Martinez in 2000. There are five seasons since the 1994 strike that an AL pitcher has led in ERA by a third of a run with 200 innings, and all five won the Cy Young. Greinke has by far the best statistical case, leading the league in ERA and walks and hits per innings pitched, and ranking second in strikeouts, strikeouts per walks, “quality starts,” shutouts, complete games and batting average against. He’s also last in run support while pitching in front of what advanced metrics rate as the league’s worst defense and a bullpen with the highest ERA. It’s been written before, but outside of poisoning his food, it’s hard to think of how Greinke’s teammates could have helped him less. Greinke had a 2.35 ERA in his no-decisions — that’s lower than anybody else’s overall ERA. Put another way, he has nine starts where he’s given up a total of 10 runs without getting a win. There are some notions that Greinke hasn’t faced good enough competition, a silly thought when you consider he went 7-4 with a 1.50 ERA against winning teams. Actually, Greinke has been so dominant this year that the real question shouldn’t be whether he’s the best pitcher in the league — of course he is — but to where his season ranks historically. Here is the list of pitchers who have matched Greinke’s totals in innings, strikeouts and adjusted ERA+, which takes into account league and ballpark factors: Walter Johnson, Bob Gibson, Ron Guidry, Dwight Gooden, Martinez and Roger Clemens. Or, you can always go to Eric Wedge. He managed the AL’s last two Cy Young winners with Cleveland, and he called Greinke’s 15-strikeout demolition of the Indians in August the best game he’d ever seen pitched in the big leagues. It was a good game, to be sure. But, depending on how you judge, it’s just the sixth-best game he pitched this season. The case against Zack The greatness of Greinke went national this year, but the rest of the country did not live the every-fifth-game holiday like Kansas City did. No matter what we know about the misleading nature of wins, that category is historically tied closer to the Cy Young Award than any other — including ERA. Eight of the 14 AL winners since the strike have led or tied for the league lead in wins. Only five have led in ERA, three of whom also led in wins. Greinke’s 16 wins are three off the league leaders, and only one AL winner since the strike has trailed by more than one win. That was Martinez in 2000, when he went 18-6 with a 1.74 ERA and 284 strikeouts in 217 innings — one of the best pitching seasons of all time. For voters tied to wins, Hernandez provides good cover. He’s been better this season than many past Cy Young winners — tied for the lead with 19 wins, second with a 2.49 ERA, third with 238 2/3 innings, and fourth with 217 strikeouts. He’s the only pitcher to rank in the top five in each of those categories, and he has 23 “quality starts” in his last 24. ESPN.com’s Cy Young predictor, put together by Rob Neyer and Bill James, has Hernandez winning. Greinke pitched for one of the worst teams in the league, and the Royals were just 17-16 in his starts. If a voter can convince himself that Greinke’s stats don’t blow away the field, the Royals’ struggles may be the tie breaker that leans away from Greinke. There are arguments to be made for others, too. Detroit’s Justin Verlander leads in wins, strikeouts and innings and won the Tigers’ biggest game of the year on three days’ rest on Sunday. Toronto’s Roy Halladay threw nine complete games and four shutouts with a 2.79 ERA. New York’s Mariano Rivera converted 44 of 46 saves for the best team in baseball, with 72 strikeouts and just 12 walks.
Posts: 68,684

10-06-2009, 10:41 AM	#2
Demonpenz Woman should only make babies Join Date: Nov 2003 Location: Apartment "G UNIT!" Casino cash: $-413864	these aint a scene, it's a god damn arms race __________________
Posts: 54,957

10-06-2009, 10:44 AM	#3
Frazod Did you hear what I said? Join Date: Aug 2000 Casino cash: $-796615	Excellent chance to have two Cy Youngs and an MVP from Missouri teams.
Posts: 121,776

10-06-2009, 11:00 AM	#7
CaliforniaChief #RIPAce Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: So Cal Casino cash: $10525899	Maybe I missed it, but did it say when the announcement will be made?
Posts: 17,469

10-06-2009, 11:07 AM	#8
teedubya Most Valuable Poster Join Date: Oct 2003 Casino cash: $8993042	Felix Hernadez is gonna win this thing... and I bet that Roy Halladay gets the All Star nod over Zack, too. Oh... yeah, he's already been jobbed this year... why not job him again?
Posts: 36,832

10-06-2009, 11:20 AM	#9
gblowfish Be Kind To Your Pets Join Date: Jun 2002 Location: Glorious Independence, MO Casino cash: $16886178 VARSITY	Greinke blew it by not beating Minnesota in his last start. He doesn't deserve it, can't win when it counts.
Posts: 41,020

10-06-2009, 11:23 AM	#10
58kcfan89 Veteran Join Date: Mar 2009 Casino cash: $9653187	If they find a way to screw Zack outta this thing, I'm gunna quit watching baseball outside of the Royals (not that I watch much outside of KC, but I'll go into complete "I don't give a sh*t" mode). This crap is ridiculous.
Posts: 2,252

10-06-2009, 11:27 AM	#13
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	"It’s been written before, but outside of poisoning his food, it’s hard to think of how Greinke’s teammates could have helped him less." Hilarious.
Posts: 56,356

10-06-2009, 11:28 AM	#14
Hootie Banned Join Date: Jan 2006 Location: Dallas, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	He also beat Boston and Detroit down the stretch giving up ZERO earned runs against both of them... ... If he doesn't win, he got jobbed, plain and simple. Put him on a team with a DEFENSE (let alone a bullpen or a competent lineup) and he wins 25 games. Put him on the Cardinals... JFC.
Posts: 56,356