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Old 09-30-2014, 01:35 AM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Late night bullshit: The path to a wild card berth.
The records of teams to get wildcards in the AFC of the last three years:

2013: Chiefs 11-5, Chargers 9-7

2012: Colts 11-5, Bengals 10-6

2011: Steelers 12-4, Bengals 9-7

In the last three years, 100% of the AFC teams that have finished 10-6 or better got into the playoffs, at least as Wild Cards.

In the last three years, three non-division winners finished 9-7, and only the 2011 Titans failed to secure a Wild Card berth. Zero teams with 8-8 or worse have received a WC berth.

That roughly means that if you're not winning your division in today's AFC, you've got a 0% chance to get in if you finish 8-8 or worse. Teams that finish 9-7 have a 2/3s chance of getting in. And teams that finish better than that get in 100% of the time.

The Chiefs have five games for the remainder of the season that they should definitely win:
  • Week 8, hosting the Rams
  • Week 9, hosting the Jets
  • Week 10, hosting the Bills
  • Week 12, hosting the Raiders
  • Week 15, visiting Oakland
With those 5 games in our pocket -- and obviously nothing is a sure thing -- that should give us a starting position of 7-2.

Which means, to get to that magical 9-7 threshold, we need two more wins. And three more wins if we want to be a sure thing.

The remaining games to get two wins from:
  • Week 5, visiting San Francisco
  • Week 7, visiting San Diego
  • Week 11, hosting the Seahawks
  • Week 13, hosting the Broncos
  • Week 14, visiting Arizona
  • Week 16, visiting Pittsburgh
  • Week 17, hosting the Chargers
I would hope the Chiefs could secure at least two more wins here, but I'll be damned if I know where it is.

Shit, this year's schedule is brutal.
Last edited by Direckshun; 09-30-2014 at 04:21 AM..
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Old 09-30-2014, 01:38 AM   #2
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Old 09-30-2014, 02:00 AM   #3
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Old 09-30-2014, 02:01 AM   #4
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Old 09-30-2014, 02:13 AM   #5
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We always lose one we shouldn't also. I'd say we need three out of your tough list. Unless you want to count Tennessee as our should have won.
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Old 09-30-2014, 02:16 AM   #6
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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We always lose one we shouldn't also. I'd say we need three out of your tough list. Unless you want to count Tennessee as our should have won.
If that doesn't count, I don't know what does.
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Old 09-30-2014, 02:37 AM   #7
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If that doesn't count, I don't know what does.
I'm with this guy. And while that game was already out there in week 1, leaving 15 more games to have a surprise, I think the true surprises might be over with how physical we've been playing in the last 3 games despite injury. The only thing that stops this team in its tracks from winning between 8-10 games is losing Alex Smith (knock on wood).
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Old 09-30-2014, 02:38 AM   #8
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Old 10-23-2014, 05:04 AM   #9
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Just to recap.

The Chiefs absolutely need to win all FIVE of the winnable games:

Week 8, hosting the Rams
Week 9, hosting the Jets
Week 10, hosting the Bills
Week 12, hosting the Raiders
Week 15, visiting the Raiders

And now that they have defeated the Chargers, they need to win ONE of the following games to finish 9-7 and have a 2/3s chance at the postseason:

Week 11, hosting the Seahawks
Week 13, hosting the Broncos
Week 14, visiting Arizona
Week 16, visiting Pittsburgh
Week 17, hosting the Chargers

If the Chiefs win TWO of those games (while winning all five of the others), they're 10-6, and recent history suggests they'd be a lock for the playoffs.
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Old 10-23-2014, 05:16 AM   #10
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Originally Posted by Direckshun View Post
Just to recap.

The Chiefs absolutely need to win all FIVE of the winnable games:

Week 8, hosting the Rams
Week 9, hosting the Jets
Week 10, hosting the Bills
Week 12, hosting the Raiders
Week 15, visiting the Raiders

And now that they have defeated the Chargers, they need to win ONE of the following games to finish 9-7 and have a 2/3s chance at the postseason:

Week 11, hosting the Seahawks
Week 13, hosting the Broncos
Week 14, visiting Arizona
Week 16, visiting Pittsburgh
Week 17, hosting the Chargers

If the Chiefs win TWO of those games (while winning all five of the others), they're 10-6, and recent history suggests they'd be a lock for the playoffs.
Not a lock.
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Old 10-23-2014, 06:22 AM   #11
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We are visiting the Bills in week 10, not hosting them. Even so we should be favored to win that game. 10 wins is easily within grasp as long as we don't get away from our running game like Andy has a tendency to do.
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Old 10-23-2014, 06:43 AM   #12
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If we're talking two wins against the tougher teams, Pittsburgh and San Diego would help us the most. They'll both be in the wild card race.
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Old 10-23-2014, 06:50 AM   #13
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Old 10-23-2014, 06:57 AM   #14
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We're fans, we speculate the merits of Andys bra selection. Stick that cliche straight up your ass.
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Old 10-23-2014, 07:01 AM   #15
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We're fans, we speculate the merits of Andys bra selection. Stick that cliche straight up your ass.
Awwwwe. I see you don't like my level headed approach. It's not cliche. Everything I have ever done, sports coaching, military has been about focusing on the task at home. I didn't say you had to do it.....
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