Well, this will go over like a lead balloon.

[Direckshun]

Nick Jacobs is basically the Chiefs expert for the 41 action news in KC. He's a great, Terez-level commentator on the team. His podcast is 4th and 1, and I highly recommend it. I'd put it alongside AP Lab as the best Chiefs podcasts out there.

Anyway, he tweeted something today that I've long suspected: that Chris Jones is unaffordable for this team. That it may be worth tagging and trading him this coming offseason for a Frank Clark-esque haul. After all, we've already got $100m tied into him, and it stresses too many other positions on the team to pay two guys like that.

My suggestion, for quite some time, has been to trade our 2020 1st and maybe some more if we have to in order to land a premier CB.

Because if we have to tag and trade Jones, and based on what he's asking for, that's probably going to have to happen, we can always get that 1st back.

That's where Jacobs disagreed with me. He believes the Chiefs are going to ride with Breeland/Fuller/Ward/Claiborne.

The ideal situation is for that to somehow work. Because if it does, you can keep your 1st for next year, while adding another 1st and then some for Chris Jones.

Thoughts?

[raybec 4]

That’s a hell of a lot of trouble for you just to tell us someone else shares your thoughts on Chris Jones.

[RunKC]

Sadly I think Nick is right. You can’t pay all these guys huge money, despite what homers on here will tell you.

Mahomes-$40 million AAV
Tyreek-$20 million AAV
Clark-$22 million AAV

I would try to trade Chris Jones and Sammy Watkins. I think we could get a 2nd for Sammy and 1st+3rd for Jones.

Next year’s draft is a building draft while we use spare money to sign (hopefully) players like Darron Lee, Bashaud Breeland is Kendall Fuller if they deserve it and don’t break the bank.

[O.city]

Mine would go over worse but....


I’d sign Jones and tag and trade Tyreek

[RunKC]

Me too O.City but that won’t happen because Andy Reid.

It’s sad bc that’s how you win Super Bowls. That’s what history says. It’s part of how the Patriots are so good

[O.city]

I think Tyreek could be a unicorn in that he could legit be a ball of game type wr so I get it

But andy can develop offense and a dt like that is hard to find

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Nick Jacobs is basically the Chiefs expert for the 41 action news in KC. He's a great, Terez-level commentator on the team. His podcast is 4th and 1, and I highly recommend it. I'd put it alongside AP Lab as the best Chiefs podcasts out there.

Anyway, he tweeted something today that I've long suspected: that Chris Jones is unaffordable for this team. That it may be worth tagging and trading him this coming offseason for a Frank Clark-esque haul. After all, we've already got $100m tied into him, and it stresses too many other positions on the team to pay two guys like that.

My suggestion, for quite some time, has been to trade our 2020 1st and maybe some more if we have to in order to land a premier CB.

Because if we have to tag and trade Jones, and based on what he's asking for, that's probably going to have to happen, we can always get that 1st back.

That's where Jacobs disagreed with me. He believes the Chiefs are going to ride with Breeland/Fuller/Ward/Claiborne.

The ideal situation is for that to somehow work. Because if it does, you can keep your 1st for next year, while adding another 1st and then some for Chris Jones.

Thoughts?

My position on Jones remains this:

If he wants Donald money, someone else needs to pay it. Especially if we are coming to the table early to offset his injury risk.

Fact is, he's not as good as Donald, and we need to be looking at value per unit salary cap, and paying as much as Donald for less than Donald production is not good production per unit salary cap.

You won't convince me otherwise.

tl;dr: Buehler445 doesn't want to pay Jones Donald money.

[New World Order]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Me too O.City but that won’t happen because Andy Reid.

It’s sad bc that’s how you win Super Bowls. That’s what history says. It’s part of how the Patriots are so good

Looks like we're going to be built like the Colts were during Manning's run.

Offense with plenty of weapons and an adequate defense.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by raybec 4

That’s a hell of a lot of trouble for you just to tell us someone else shares your thoughts on Chris Jones.

What trouble?

Several paragraphs?

Are you familiar with me, noob?

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by O.city

Mine would go over worse but....


I’d sign Jones and tag and trade Tyreek

I'd do the same.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by RunKC

Me too O.City but that won’t happen because Andy Reid.

It’s sad bc that’s how you win Super Bowls. That’s what history says. It’s part of how the Patriots are so good

The Patriots wouldn't pay either of them. They'd let them both walk.

I'm not exactly prepared to do that, either.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

My position on Jones remains this:

If he wants Donald money, someone else needs to pay it. Especially if we are coming to the table early to offset his injury risk.

Fact is, he's not as good as Donald, and we need to be looking at value per unit salary cap, and paying as much as Donald for less than Donald production is not good production per unit salary cap.

You won't convince me otherwise.

tl;dr: Buehler445 doesn't want to pay Jones Donald money.

You're not factoring time-value of money either. If Jones gets Donald money then he's really getting less. It's by how much he exceeds Donald money you'd have to question.

I would let this year play out and see what level of production you get out of Jones before committing to it, but I'd likely pay Jones over Tyreek. I just think it is much more rare to find a 10-sack DT than it is a highly productive WR. Get a haul for Tyreek, and I bet you would, spend a 1st on Jalen Reagor, and keep on keepin on.

[Buehler445]

Originally Posted by kccrow

You're not factoring time-value of money either. If Jones gets Donald money then he's really getting less. It's by how much he exceeds Donald money you'd have to question.

I would let this year play out and see what level of production you get out of Jones before committing to it, but I'd likely pay Jones over Tyreek. I just think it is much more rare to find a 10-sack DT than it is a highly productive WR. Get a haul for Tyreek, and I bet you would, spend a 1st on Jalen Reagor, and keep on keepin on.

The NPV calculation isn't lost on me, and I'm probably not smart enough to actually get it to a number, but the fact is it is just over a year old, and the difference in a year is probably less than the difference between Donald and Jones.

I love Jones, but he is a firm step below Donald, and I still won't believe that the production per unit salary cap will be greater than Donald if Jones and Donald have the same contract, even a year of inflation later.

RE: Reek. I don't know what I'd do here. I'm hoping he comes cheap after the extortion attempt. I'm expecting him to walk. Philosophically I'm unwilling to break the bank on a WR, because the QB (We have Mahomes!) can get production out of menial guys. HOWEVER, the difference between what Reek is capable of and the next dude is as wide as anyone I can think of (except maybe Donald - dude blows my mind). I could be convinced to ride out his development.

[RunKC]

In order to make it work and keep all of these guys, I think some changes have to be made.

-have to get rid of Sammy, save the money and get a pick
-LDT, Sorenson and Erving gotta go.

Need to trade down and acquire as many top 100 picks as we can.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by Buehler445

The NPV calculation isn't lost on me, and I'm probably not smart enough to actually get it to a number, but the fact is it is just over a year old, and the difference in a year is probably less than the difference between Donald and Jones.

I love Jones, but he is a firm step below Donald, and I still won't believe that the production per unit salary cap will be greater than Donald if Jones and Donald have the same contract, even a year of inflation later.

RE: Reek. I don't know what I'd do here. I'm hoping he comes cheap after the extortion attempt. I'm expecting him to walk. Philosophically I'm unwilling to break the bank on a WR, because the QB (We have Mahomes!) can get production out of menial guys. HOWEVER, the difference between what Reek is capable of and the next dude is as wide as anyone I can think of (except maybe Donald - dude blows my mind). I could be convinced to ride out his development.

You have to develop a formula for your perceived value of production. For instance, I may say that I will give 2 points for tackles net of sacks, 6 points for sacks, and 4 points for passes defensed. These are metrics the league actually tracks.

In Donald's case, he would have then had a 4-year average prior to signing his deal of 150 points. With an AAV of $22.5M, his approximate value per unit of production then is $150K.

Using the same valuation, Jones has a 3-year average of 120 points. Extrapolating $150K over 120 points yields an AAV of $18.06M. League inflation since the boom in 2013 is 7.35% per year. Since you wouldn't really be using NPV, but rather FV of an annuity to calculate TVM, and we use 7% for simplicity, the FV is $19.3M AAV. If he were to sign in the offseason next year, that is about $20.7M AAV. He'd have to break his average of 34 tackles, 8 sacks, and 5 passes defensed to impact his value versus Donald's. He'd need to duplicate last season's efforts to get a time-adjusted value the same as Donald's AAV.

Now, my system is undoubtedly imperfect. No factors for snap counts as a percentage of defensive plays, qb hurries, and other such information. It's an off-the-cuff valuation for example purposes.

The question for me is more along the lines of, can we expect Jones to have production in line with Donald's heading into his contract? Donald averaged 51 tackles, 10 sacks, and 2 passes defensed heading into his extension. Moving to a 4-3, I'd have to think that this is entirely probable. This was also the thought process on inking Donald to his contract. There was no thought that this guy would blow up for 20 sacks, and I think it would be unreasonable to have any similar expectation for Jones to even repeat last year's 15.5. Neither of these guys are JJ Watt level players, but they are the closest in the league right now.

Circling back to your value per unit salary cap, I think it's incredibly hard to use that as pure justification for who you choose to pay or not pay. I can absolutely value all players and say that I get a much better deal for a player at a position that has moderate production than a guy that gets much better production. Case in point, you pay Frank Clark $20.8 AAV for 40 tackles and 12 sacks. He is incredibly hard to block with a single lineman on a snap-to-snap basis and is extremely disruptive. The offense has to account for Clark every single play. You pay Alex Okafor $6.0 AAV for 40 tackles and 4 sacks. He isn't difficult to block on a snap-to-snap basis. He will make the plays that come to him much more so than having a large effect on the game. The offense generally doesn't need to do anything more to account for him than block him 1-on-1. So, in terms value per unit, Clark costs about $162k and Okafor $62k. Do you really want to trot out two Okafor's instead of a Clark and an Okafor? You do need impact players over and above the moneyball guys.