Chiefs Chiefs Pats scoring discussion.

O.city · 10-06-2020, 11:48 AM

After Mathieu's pick 6 last night,should Andy have went for 2? They were up 15, a 2 point conversion puts you up 3 scores and essentially ends the game.

smithandrew051 · 10-06-2020, 11:52 AM

Kick it.

2 TDs AND 2 2-Point Conversions would be extremely difficult for any offense, let alone that Patriots offense.

Why Not? · 10-06-2020, 11:52 AM

Kick. If your defense gives up two TD’s and two 2pt conversions in the 4th quarter to a Hoyer/Stidham led team, **** you anyway

O.city · 10-06-2020, 11:53 AM

I get kicking it, but you have your best unit being your offense with a chance to end the game.

If you don't get it, you're still up 15.

VAGOMO 4 LIFE! · 10-06-2020, 11:55 AM

Kick it but kick it from 55 since Butker can make consecutive kicks through the uprights on kickoffs but can’t make extra points. A reason I believe it’s Townsends fault

Marcellus · 10-06-2020, 11:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

I get kicking it, but you have your best unit being your offense with a chance to end the game.

If you don't get it, you're still up 15.

16 forces 2 TDs with 2 2pt conversions just to tie, that's a tough road to hoe. Conversion rate is somewhere around 50%.

O.city · 10-06-2020, 11:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Marcellus

16 forces 2 TDs with 2 2pt conversions just to tie, that's a tough road to hoe. Conversion rate is somewhere around 50%.

It still gives them a potential path to a tie though. If you get it, it doesnt'.

smithandrew051 · 10-06-2020, 12:00 PM

If the Patriots don’t convert BOTH 2-point conversions, then it becomes a 3 possession game.

I give the Chiefs a 70% chance of converting for 2. I also give them a 95% chance of making the PAT.

I give the Patriots about a 30% chance of converting for 2.

So if the Chiefs kick, we have a 95% chance of the margin being 16. 30% x 30% is 9%, which is New England’s chances of tying (and that assumes they can score 2 unanswered TDs). The inverse is a 91% chance that the game becomes 3 possessions. Multiply that by 95% and you get an 86.45% of a 3 possession game, because we kicked the PAT.

I’ll take the 86.45% chance over the 70% chance.

There are absolutely ZERO flaws in my logic.

CasselGotPeedOn · 10-06-2020, 12:07 PM

Find me stats on how many teams in the history of football have scored two touchdowns and converted two 2 point conversions in a row. I'll wait.

KC Hawks · 10-06-2020, 12:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CasselGotPeedOn

Find me stats on how many teams in the history of football have scored two touchdowns and converted two 2 point conversions in a row. I'll wait.

Only one I can think of recently was the Patriots against Atlanta in the SB.

lcarus · 10-06-2020, 12:11 PM

If it were up to me I'd absolutely go for the 2 point conversion. In that situation the reward outweighs the risk.

Wallcrawler · 10-06-2020, 12:11 PM

Don't chase points. You only go for two if youve lost all faith in Butker.

**wazu** · 10-06-2020, 12:12 PM

The Chiefs should go for 2 every time.

**Rain Man** · 10-06-2020, 12:12 PM

Let's assume that we make 48 percent of 2-point conversions (league average - can't find the Chiefs' percentage) and 94 percent of extra points (Butker's historic average).

If you go for the 2-point play, there's a ...

48 percent chance that the bad guys will need 2 TDs and EPs and an FG to tie it. (And change 1 EP to a 2-point play to win it.)
52 percent chance that the bad guys will need 2 TDs, 1 EP and 1 2-point play to tie it. (And change 1 EP to a 2-point play to win it.)

If you go for the 1-point play, there's a

94 percent change that the bad guys will need 2 TDs and 2 2-point plays to tie it. (And another score to win it.)
6 percent chance that the bad guys will need will need 2 TDs, 1 EP and 1 2-point play to tie it. (And change 1 EP to a 2-point play to win it.)

By kicking it, you're massively decreasing the likelihood that 2 TDs, 1 EP and 1 2-point play will make a difference. You're requiring them to get 2 2-point plays after touchdowns, which in combination will happen only 23 percent of the time even if they get the touchdowns.

You're giving yourself a 48 percent chance of completely putting the game out of reach with a 3-score differential, but if they can score two touchdowns they now have a 45 percent chance of tying it up rather than 23 percent chance, and they could also go for the win in that case.

In summary, I guess it depends on how likely you think it is that they can score two touchdowns, because these tradeoffs are purely a matter of taste. Kicking it nearly guarantees a lot of difficulty, while going for 2 could effectively end the game but leaves a small window of opportunity for the bad guys.

I might change my vote to kicking it.

**wazu** · 10-06-2020, 12:17 PM

The Chiefs 2 point conversion rate was 50% in 2018, 50% in 2019, and so far in 2020 is 100%.

View Poll Results: Should the Chiefs have went for 2 last night to make it a 3 score game?
Go for 2	13	31.71%
Kick the PAT	28	68.29%
Voters: 41. You may not vote on this poll

10-06-2020, 11:48 AM
O.city In Search of a Life Join Date: Jul 2009 Casino cash: $-725936	Chiefs Pats scoring discussion. After Mathieu's pick 6 last night,should Andy have went for 2? They were up 15, a 2 point conversion puts you up 3 scores and essentially ends the game.
Posts: 84,240

10-06-2020, 11:52 AM	#2
smithandrew051 I Like The Kansas City Chiefs Join Date: Nov 2017 Location: Shawnee, KS Casino cash: $-675600	Kick it. 2 TDs AND 2 2-Point Conversions would be extremely difficult for any offense, let alone that Patriots offense. __________________ My 2025 Adopt a Chief: Jeffrey Bassa Holy Hat!
Posts: 31,836

10-06-2020, 11:52 AM	#3
Why Not? In Search of a Life Join Date: Apr 2013 Location: Kansas Casino cash: $-691006	Kick. If your defense gives up two TD’s and two 2pt conversions in the 4th quarter to a Hoyer/Stidham led team, **** you anyway
Posts: 23,889	2 0

10-06-2020, 11:53 AM	#4
O.city In Search of a Life Join Date: Jul 2009 Casino cash: $-725936	I get kicking it, but you have your best unit being your offense with a chance to end the game. If you don't get it, you're still up 15.
Posts: 84,240

10-06-2020, 11:55 AM	#5
VAGOMO 4 LIFE! In Search of a Life Join Date: Nov 2018 Casino cash: $6350400	Kick it but kick it from 55 since Butker can make consecutive kicks through the uprights on kickoffs but can’t make extra points. A reason I believe it’s Townsends fault
Posts: 21,754

10-06-2020, 12:00 PM	#8
smithandrew051 I Like The Kansas City Chiefs Join Date: Nov 2017 Location: Shawnee, KS Casino cash: $-675600	If the Patriots don’t convert BOTH 2-point conversions, then it becomes a 3 possession game. I give the Chiefs a 70% chance of converting for 2. I also give them a 95% chance of making the PAT. I give the Patriots about a 30% chance of converting for 2. So if the Chiefs kick, we have a 95% chance of the margin being 16. 30% x 30% is 9%, which is New England’s chances of tying (and that assumes they can score 2 unanswered TDs). The inverse is a 91% chance that the game becomes 3 possessions. Multiply that by 95% and you get an 86.45% of a 3 possession game, because we kicked the PAT. I’ll take the 86.45% chance over the 70% chance. There are absolutely ZERO flaws in my logic. __________________ My 2025 Adopt a Chief: Jeffrey Bassa Holy Hat!
Posts: 31,836	1 0

10-06-2020, 12:07 PM	#9
CasselGotPeedOn Your mom Join Date: Nov 2016 Casino cash: $-2109598	Find me stats on how many teams in the history of football have scored two touchdowns and converted two 2 point conversions in a row. I'll wait.
Posts: 9,384

10-06-2020, 12:11 PM	#11
lcarus Everybody Lies. Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: 22 Acacia Avenue Casino cash: $-1949887	If it were up to me I'd absolutely go for the 2 point conversion. In that situation the reward outweighs the risk.
Posts: 17,850

10-06-2020, 12:12 PM	#13
wazu ... Join Date: May 2002 Location: Kansas City, MO Casino cash: $-1697705 VARSITY	The Chiefs should go for 2 every time.
Posts: 30,874

10-06-2020, 12:12 PM	#14
Rain Man Seize life. Be an ermine. Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $-682449 VARSITY	Let's assume that we make 48 percent of 2-point conversions (league average - can't find the Chiefs' percentage) and 94 percent of extra points (Butker's historic average). If you go for the 2-point play, there's a ... 48 percent chance that the bad guys will need 2 TDs and EPs and an FG to tie it. (And change 1 EP to a 2-point play to win it.) 52 percent chance that the bad guys will need 2 TDs, 1 EP and 1 2-point play to tie it. (And change 1 EP to a 2-point play to win it.) If you go for the 1-point play, there's a 94 percent change that the bad guys will need 2 TDs and 2 2-point plays to tie it. (And another score to win it.) 6 percent chance that the bad guys will need will need 2 TDs, 1 EP and 1 2-point play to tie it. (And change 1 EP to a 2-point play to win it.) By kicking it, you're massively decreasing the likelihood that 2 TDs, 1 EP and 1 2-point play will make a difference. You're requiring them to get 2 2-point plays after touchdowns, which in combination will happen only 23 percent of the time even if they get the touchdowns. You're giving yourself a 48 percent chance of completely putting the game out of reach with a 3-score differential, but if they can score two touchdowns they now have a 45 percent chance of tying it up rather than 23 percent chance, and they could also go for the win in that case. In summary, I guess it depends on how likely you think it is that they can score two touchdowns, because these tradeoffs are purely a matter of taste. Kicking it nearly guarantees a lot of difficulty, while going for 2 could effectively end the game but leaves a small window of opportunity for the bad guys. I might change my vote to kicking it. __________________ Active fan of the greatest team in NFL history.
Posts: 145,512

10-06-2020, 12:17 PM	#15
wazu ... Join Date: May 2002 Location: Kansas City, MO Casino cash: $-1697705 VARSITY	The Chiefs 2 point conversion rate was 50% in 2018, 50% in 2019, and so far in 2020 is 100%.
Posts: 30,874