Chiefs Analytics talk

O.city · 10-03-2022, 09:33 AM

Was doing some reading around this morning in between work stuff.

Alot of talk about the Ravens situation yesterday. Analytically, it looks like it was the right call in terms of going for a TD vs kicking. A TD theoretically gave them an 84% chance of winning vs 62% with kicking a fg.

Now math isn't my strong suite, but in this case, do you not also need to take into account not scoring and giving them the ball being tied?

If I go for it and don't get it ie turn it over on downs, I'm gonna have the best chance of losing.

Either situation, you have to have your defense not give up a TD in order to win in regulation. I think if you kick it, you're probably a worst case scenario losing to a TD but more likely at worst you're probably going into OT as the Bills theoretically would have slowed her down once in FG range?

Pasta Little Brioni · 10-03-2022, 09:44 AM

I think he knew in his heart Buffalo would drive for a TD and they would have

**Bearcat** · 10-03-2022, 09:45 AM

I wonder how much weight is put on the score at that point, too... if it was 38-38, I'd absolutely go for it with 4 minutes left. But, you've held the Bills to 20, so maybe trust the defense a bit more... granted, they're also dealing with the dumb OT coin flip thing as well.

And of course, a touch back is the worst thing that could happen, as you're looking at the Bills needing to drive 99 yards, just to screw the pooch.

O.city · 10-03-2022, 09:47 AM

We usually see teams in those situations driving to get into FG range anyway and they had slowed the Bills down to 20 for the game.

I dunno. I get being aggressive and think it's the right call most times. But does it feel like we've swung to far the other way here?

KCJake · 10-03-2022, 09:51 AM

In that situation, I've always liked kicking the field goal. Worst case, Buffalo ties the game with a field goal and you go to overtime. If you really trust your defense, Buffalo isn't marching down the field and scoring a touchdown. Probably bigger than all that, I don't trust Lamar Jackson to not do something stupid on 4th and goal

staylor26 · 10-03-2022, 09:53 AM

I would've kicked the FG

BWillie · 10-03-2022, 09:56 AM

The sad thing about this is if he got it and won there would be no thread about it. Just because you are making the right decision doesn't mean it will work.

O.city · 10-03-2022, 09:57 AM

Just looking at the situation too.

You've had 3 plays from there and haven't scored. If you wanna throw it down there, windows are really tight (they actually had a breakdown wide open WR Lamar just missed him til it was to late).

I think the play was to run some kind of scramble drill with Lamar and it just got sniffed out.

**DaFace** · 10-03-2022, 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by O.city

Was doing some reading around this morning in between work stuff.

Alot of talk about the Ravens situation yesterday. Analytically, it looks like it was the right call in terms of going for a TD vs kicking. A TD theoretically gave them an 84% chance of winning vs 62% with kicking a fg.

Now math isn't my strong suite, but in this case, do you not also need to take into account not scoring and giving them the ball being tied?

If I go for it and don't get it ie turn it over on downs, I'm gonna have the best chance of losing.

Either situation, you have to have your defense not give up a TD in order to win in regulation. I think if you kick it, you're probably a worst case scenario losing to a TD but more likely at worst you're probably going into OT as the Bills theoretically would have slowed her down once in FG range?

In theory, that's all accounted for in the analytics. But yeah, it seemed iffy to me.

ThaVirus · 10-03-2022, 10:01 AM

I would have kicked the field goal.

IIRC, it was 20-20 with 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter. You've gotta take the points in that situation.

O.city · 10-03-2022, 10:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie

The sad thing about this is if he got it and won there would be no thread about it. Just because you are making the right decision doesn't mean it will work.

Sure.

I mean, small sample sizes and all so keep making the "right decision" I guess.

**DaFace** · 10-03-2022, 10:45 AM

For what it's worth, here's what the 4th down bot says about it:

---> BUF (20) @ BAL (20) <---
BAL has 4th & 2 at the BUF 2

Recommendation (MEDIUM): �� Go for it (+2.1 WP)
Actual play: (Shotgun) L.Jackson pass short right intended for D.Duvernay INTERCEPTED by J.Poyer at BUF -6. Touch pic.twitter.com/8AhUoz77oC
— 4th down decision bot (@ben_bot_baldwin) October 2, 2022

So based on that, it was a pretty tough decision. The odds in the OP assume success, but the success rate of converting were much lower than the FG (obviously), so it's practically a coin flip.

**chiefforlife** · 10-03-2022, 10:46 AM

I feel like it was the right call.

4 shots at the endzone with Lamar is nearly impossible to stop. He had to feel good about that.

He also knows that Buffalo can score often and quickly. Josh Allen is a closer in that offense. Even though the D had held up pretty well, its crunch time and he knew they would not be able to stop Buffalo with the game on the line.

Playing for the tie only delays the inevitable, he had to play for the win there.

BWillie · 10-03-2022, 10:47 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DaFace

For what it's worth, here's what the 4th down bot says about it:

---> BUF (20) @ BAL (20) <---
BAL has 4th & 2 at the BUF 2

Recommendation (MEDIUM): �� Go for it (+2.1 WP)
Actual play: (Shotgun) L.Jackson pass short right intended for D.Duvernay INTERCEPTED by J.Poyer at BUF -6. Touch pic.twitter.com/8AhUoz77oC
— 4th down decision bot (@ben_bot_baldwin) October 2, 2022

So based on that, it was a pretty tough decision.

Its a decision where it doesn't matter much either way but the fact that you are playing a potent offense should push the decision to even more of "going for it"

O.city · 10-03-2022, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by chiefforlife

I feel like it was the right call.

4 shots at the endzone with Lamar is nearly impossible to stop. He had to feel good about that.

He also knows that Buffalo can score often and quickly. Josh Allen is a closer in that offense. Even though the D had held up pretty well, its crunch time and he knew they would not be able to stop Buffalo with the game on the line.

Playing for the tie only delays the inevitable, he had to play for the win there.

Again though, if they can score fast and often, even with a TD you're playing for a potential tie.

And they had already stopped 3 shots with Lamar at the endzone. You aren't gonna run it on 4th down, so it's easier to defend.

10-03-2022, 09:33 AM
O.city In Search of a Life Join Date: Jul 2009 Casino cash: $-535936	Analytics talk Was doing some reading around this morning in between work stuff. Alot of talk about the Ravens situation yesterday. Analytically, it looks like it was the right call in terms of going for a TD vs kicking. A TD theoretically gave them an 84% chance of winning vs 62% with kicking a fg. Now math isn't my strong suite, but in this case, do you not also need to take into account not scoring and giving them the ball being tied? If I go for it and don't get it ie turn it over on downs, I'm gonna have the best chance of losing. Either situation, you have to have your defense not give up a TD in order to win in regulation. I think if you kick it, you're probably a worst case scenario losing to a TD but more likely at worst you're probably going into OT as the Bills theoretically would have slowed her down once in FG range?
Posts: 84,153

10-03-2022, 09:44 AM	#2
Pasta Little Brioni Consuming CP souls Join Date: Oct 2005 Location: U.S.A. Casino cash: $398880	I think he knew in his heart Buffalo would drive for a TD and they would have __________________ **Official TFWdemB Trivia Commisioner**
Posts: 72,919

10-03-2022, 09:45 AM	#3
Bearcat Would an idiot do that? Join Date: Nov 2000 Location: Arizona Casino cash: $-845069	I wonder how much weight is put on the score at that point, too... if it was 38-38, I'd absolutely go for it with 4 minutes left. But, you've held the Bills to 20, so maybe trust the defense a bit more... granted, they're also dealing with the dumb OT coin flip thing as well. And of course, a touch back is the worst thing that could happen, as you're looking at the Bills needing to drive 99 yards, just to screw the pooch. __________________
Posts: 59,445

10-03-2022, 09:47 AM	#4
O.city In Search of a Life Join Date: Jul 2009 Casino cash: $-535936	We usually see teams in those situations driving to get into FG range anyway and they had slowed the Bills down to 20 for the game. I dunno. I get being aggressive and think it's the right call most times. But does it feel like we've swung to far the other way here?
Posts: 84,153	1 0

10-03-2022, 09:51 AM	#5
KCJake Veteran Join Date: Aug 2003 Casino cash: $625775	In that situation, I've always liked kicking the field goal. Worst case, Buffalo ties the game with a field goal and you go to overtime. If you really trust your defense, Buffalo isn't marching down the field and scoring a touchdown. Probably bigger than all that, I don't trust Lamar Jackson to not do something stupid on 4th and goal Last edited by KCJake; 10-03-2022 at 09:56 AM..
Posts: 4,898

10-03-2022, 09:53 AM	#6
staylor26 In Search of a Life Join Date: Oct 2007 Casino cash: $-1890960	I would've kicked the FG
Posts: 52,836

10-03-2022, 09:56 AM	#7
BWillie Are you ready to Rumble? Join Date: Apr 2006 Casino cash: $-1238759	The sad thing about this is if he got it and won there would be no thread about it. Just because you are making the right decision doesn't mean it will work.
Posts: 52,409

10-03-2022, 09:57 AM	#8
O.city In Search of a Life Join Date: Jul 2009 Casino cash: $-535936	Just looking at the situation too. You've had 3 plays from there and haven't scored. If you wanna throw it down there, windows are really tight (they actually had a breakdown wide open WR Lamar just missed him til it was to late). I think the play was to run some kind of scramble drill with Lamar and it just got sniffed out.
Posts: 84,153	1 0

10-03-2022, 10:01 AM	#10
ThaVirus 5 o’clock free crack giveaway Join Date: Sep 2007 Casino cash: $-1597631	I would have kicked the field goal. IIRC, it was 20-20 with 4 minutes left in the 4th quarter. You've gotta take the points in that situation.
Posts: 46,907	1 0

10-03-2022, 10:45 AM	#12
DaFace Kind of a mod Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Donkey Land Casino cash: $-1653101	For what it's worth, here's what the 4th down bot says about it: ---> BUF (20) @ BAL (20) <--- BAL has 4th & 2 at the BUF 2 Recommendation (MEDIUM): �� Go for it (+2.1 WP) Actual play: (Shotgun) L.Jackson pass short right intended for D.Duvernay INTERCEPTED by J.Poyer at BUF -6. Touch pic.twitter.com/8AhUoz77oC — 4th down decision bot (@ben_bot_baldwin) October 2, 2022 So based on that, it was a pretty tough decision. The odds in the OP assume success, but the success rate of converting were much lower than the FG (obviously), so it's practically a coin flip.
Posts: 53,117

10-03-2022, 10:46 AM	#13
chiefforlife Colorado Chief Fan Join Date: Feb 2006 Casino cash: $5493147	I feel like it was the right call. 4 shots at the endzone with Lamar is nearly impossible to stop. He had to feel good about that. He also knows that Buffalo can score often and quickly. Josh Allen is a closer in that offense. Even though the D had held up pretty well, its crunch time and he knew they would not be able to stop Buffalo with the game on the line. Playing for the tie only delays the inevitable, he had to play for the win there.
Posts: 5,717