Preparing for a Jones-pocalypse

[Direckshun]

If our hall of fame defensive tackle does not come to a deal with the Chiefs over the next 12 months, how might you go about replacing him? (If the Chiefs do not re-sign Jones, they'll have over $50m in cap space in 2024.)

The most likely solution is that the Chiefs would tag him and try to work out a deal -- but who knows, maybe he claims he won't play under a tag. He's already claimed he won't play for another team, sabotaging hypothetical efforts by the Chiefs to trade him this offseason.

Here are the DTs from PFN's list of the top DTs in college football right now:

15) Michael Hall Jr., DT, Ohio State

Many of the top DTs in the 2024 NFL Draft are a bit undersized, but that quality can actually help them win the leverage battle. Michael Hall Jr.’s film proves that, as the Ohio State standout effortlessly gets under his opponents and wrenches through blocks with his burst, hand power, and tenacity. He’s an adept pass-rushing threat who’s trending up.

20) Maason Smith, DT, LSU

The question will be whether or not Maason Smith can come back to 100% after missing most of the 2022 campaign with a torn ACL. If he can, he has first-round potential.

Smith — the 6’5″, 300-pound behemoth who logged four sacks and five TFLs in 2021 — has an overwhelming power profile, but he’s also athletic enough to shade outside at 5-tech, and he’s shown he can stack searing hand counters as a pass rusher one on one.

23) Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois

His player type is a bit unorthodox, but there will be demand for Illinois’ Jer’Zhan Newton in the 2024 NFL Draft cycle. Listed at 6’2″, 280 pounds, Newton falls between the DT and EDGE positional designations, but he’s just a great football player at the end of the day.

Newton is quick off the line, flexible peeling through blocks, and his violent, combative hands can wreck blockers in congestion — fueled by his constant energy.

39) Ruke Orhorhoro, DT, Clemson

Ruke Orhorhoro was an early-round prospect on my 2023 NFL Draft board, but he chose to return to school and keep honing his craft. Orhorhoro was born in Nigeria and didn’t start playing football until his junior year of high school.

As young as he is, Orhorhoro’s an exciting talent with elite burst, power capacity, and alignment flexibility at 6’4″, 303 pounds.

40) Brandon Dorlus, DL, Oregon

If alignment versatility is what you seek out in prospects each cycle, then you’ll be a fan of Oregon’s Brandon Dorlus. At 6’3″, 285 pounds, Dorlus — who contributed 2.5 sacks and 9.5 TFLs in 2022 — is truly a goblin on the defensive line. He has the length and mass to disrupt inside at 3-tech, but he can also play as a stand-up rusher and use speed to power.

Here are the DTs currently slated to hit the free market next year (Jones excepted):

Quinnen Williams, Jets
DJ Reader, Bengals
Ed Oliver, Bills
Grover Stewart, Colts
Fletcher Cox, Eagles
Sheldon Rankins, Texans
Maliek Collins, Texans
Austin Johnson, Chargers
DaQuan Jones, Bills
Justin Jones, Bears
Michael Pierce, Ravens
Tim Settle, Bills
Rakeem Nunez-Roches, Giants
Javon Kinlaw, 49ers

Obviously, there are others as well.

Here's also some obvious trade/cut candidates, which I've compiled by comparing the DTs with the highest 2024 cap numbers against the teams that are over the cap in 2024:

• Arik Armstead, 49ers (would save the 49ers $11m, dead money $14m)
• Zach Allen, Broncos (would have to be a trade + new deal, as his current contract is un-movable)
• DJ Jones, Broncos (would save Broncos $10m, dead money $3m)
• Sebastian Joseph-Day, Chargers (would save Chargers $7.5m, dead money $2.5m)
• Dalvin Tomlinson, Browns (would have to be a trade + new deal, as his current contract is un-movable)

[O.city]

Tag and trade Jones, use said picks to trade for Quinnen WIlliams.

[Direckshun]

I think the best course for both teams is to extend Jones, obviously. (Or at least franchise him and hope it plays alright in Jones' camp.)

The Chiefs are unlikely to take DT in the first, even if they have to replace Jones. There's just too big of a need at left tackle right now and the Chiefs are going to have to burn resources to get the one they want.

There are some capable DTs the Chiefs could go get, but Reader is the only one that gives you the value you need. Everybody else is either a massive step down, or Quinnen Wililams. And if you're going to pay $25m/year for Williams, why not just pay $30m/year for Jones since he's better anyway?

The trade/cut market for DT is dreadful. Joseph-Day is the only one that makes sense unless the Browns want out of the Tomlinson contract ASAP -- but they literally just signed it, which helped put them into cap hell. But still, they literally just signed it.