NFL Draft College stats don't lie (QB's)

Mecca · 04-24-2008, 08:27 PM

There are plenty of numbers bandied about at NFL draft time -- 40-yard dash times, bench press reps, vertical jump heights and even Wonderlic test results.

All are familiar to most NFL fans. And yet, we rarely hear experts mention a player's college statistics. Most fans assume college stats are not accurate predictors of NFL performance.

That's not always the case. My research of highly drafted quarterbacks since 1996 found that two college statistics adequately predict future NFL performance: games started and completion percentage. In fact, where a quarterback is selected in the draft has virtually no bearing on his NFL success. Games started and completion percentage are far better than the scouts at determining how good a player will be.

Over the past 12 years, teams have repeatedly drafted players who haven't shown the ability to consistently complete passes at the college level, and these players have consistently failed. For some reason, scouts expected players such as Kyle Boller (48 percent), Jim Druckenmiller (54 percent) and Ryan Leaf (54 percent) to suddenly figure out how to complete passes once they hit the NFL. Having a high completion percentage (60 percent or higher) is no guarantee of success, especially if it was done in a small number of games in a fluky system (Tim Couch being a strong example), but it is a prerequisite for it.

As to why games started should be an indicator of NFL success, there is a fairly obvious explanation -- good players start games. No one knows a player better than his coach, and if a coach decides he's good enough to start as a freshman, that's a good sign. Playing time also provides experience, which is crucial to the development of a young quarterback.

However, there is a more complex reason why games started is an important indicator. In general, NFL scouts do an excellent job of talent evaluation when they have enough information. The more film that exists of a player, the easier it is to find weaknesses. When scouts don't get sufficient information, they place too much weight on "measurables" and off-field workouts, and make mistakes like Couch, Leaf or Akili Smith.

Sometimes, when a player starts a lot of games, scouts have enough film to figure out that he is truly a "system quarterback," and not an NFL prospect. That's why Kliff Kingsbury and Chris Leak were not drafted high despite strong college numbers. Because of the assumption that scouts can do their job with the right information, these projections apply only to quarterbacks chosen in the first two rounds.

What does this analysis tell us about this year's crop of young quarterbacks? Let's look at the four passers likely to be chosen on the first day of the draft.

Matt Ryan (32 starts, 59.9 percent completion rate)

Ryan, likely to be the only quarterback selected in the top 10, and perhaps the whole of the first round, has great physical tools and looks the part. He stands tall in the pocket and delivers the ball with authority. However, his collegiate stats are average. The completion rate is a little less disappointing when we consider Ryan played in a downfield passing NFL-style offense for a coach who completely abandoned the running game and let Ryan throw an absurd 654 pass attempts (second-most in the nation). I'm sure facing defenses that knew Boston College was a pass-first team hurt Ryan's senior numbers. His senior completion percentage was 59 percent, but he completed 62 percent of passes the previous two years when the team was more balanced.

Nonetheless, I would be wary of guaranteeing $20 million to a guy who was not stellar in college. Statistically, the most similar recent college quarterbacks were Patrick Ramsey and Rex Grossman, who were a little worse, and Eli Manning, who was a little better. That's not a great group of comparable players, and taking Ryan in the top five is a significant risk.

Brian Brohm (33 starts, 65.8 percent completion rate)

A year ago, Brohm topped Mel Kiper's first 2008 draft board. Now it is a question whether he will even go in the first round. What changed over the last year? The answer is nothing. Brohm's weaknesses -- arm strength and mobility -- are the same as they were a year ago. So are his strengths: touch, decision-making, pocket presence and a strong work ethic. You can question his durability, but he had the same injuries in his past when he was a projected No. 1 overall pick a year ago. However, Louisville struggled this past season, finishing with a 6-6 record. So if we punished quarterback prospects because they played on bad teams, nobody in Denver would own a Jay Cutler replica jersey.

Statistically, Brohm has a profile that points to success. His 33 starts are less than stellar, and the injuries that kept him from starting more should be cause for concern, but his career completion percentage is the stuff NFL stars are made of. It is possible Brohm could fail -- maybe he'll get injured again, perhaps the completion percentage will prove to be the product of a gimmicky college offense -- but if I could pick him in the second half of the first round, I would be awfully excited about it.

Joe Flacco (26 starts, 63.4 percent completion rate)

The numbers that Flacco put up at Division I-AA Delaware are quite good. Completing 63.4 percent of passes is impressive, even against lesser competition. The problem is that Flacco ended up at Delaware in the first place, which is the same reason why he started only 26 games.

Flacco initially went to Pittsburgh. He redshirted his freshman year, and was unable to beat out Tyler Palko for the starting job after Dave Wannstedt arrived as head coach the following year. Palko went undrafted last year. If Flacco is as good as scouts believe he is, why didn't Wannstedt see that he was better than Palko? Wannstedt may not be the best coach in college football, but it is hard to believe he was that wrong.

Flacco is not a bad prospect, but seems like the kind of guy you take a flier on the second day, not someone who should be getting a multimillion-dollar signing bonus.

Chad Henne (47 starts, 59.7 percent completion rate)

Henne is the type of player scouts never miss on -- a four-year starter from an elite college program. His 59.7 percent completion rate isn't bad, but it isn't that good either. Henne never displayed the consistency of an elite quarterback while at Michigan, but he did show an NFL arm.

Henne's college stats are quite similar to those of another big-time recruit from a big-time school who had an inconsistent career -- Carson Palmer. Palmer started 45 games and completed 59.1 percent of passes, but finished on a positive note by winning the Rose Bowl and Heisman Trophy and consequently went No. 1 overall. Henne didn't finish as strong, and isn't quite as good a prospect, but isn't as far off as some might think. After a nice performance at the Senior Bowl, he seems to have an outside shot at the first round, and would be a good pick there. He is a virtual lock to be at least an above-average professional.

That speaks well to the people who like Brohm...

Chief Wiggum · 04-24-2008, 08:31 PM

Is this from the football outsiders guys? I've read similar things to this before. I do a lot of that type of analysis for risk position at my job and find it very interesting and a completely different way of looking at sports.

Mecca · 04-24-2008, 08:32 PM

It's actually up on ESPN.com

BigVE · 04-24-2008, 08:32 PM

If we end up with any of the top 3 qb's I will be alright with that. Ryan, Brohm, Flacco...no problem unless it's with the 5th pick.

Mecca · 04-24-2008, 08:34 PM

Flacco is the one I really don't want, he reminds me of all the big arm QB's that rise above where they go..

If they aren't gonna take Ryan it comes down to Brohm or Henne or no QB....hell according to that Brohm and Henne are the best guys.

beach tribe · 04-24-2008, 08:35 PM

I agree with this.

beach tribe · 04-24-2008, 08:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecca

Flacco is the one I really don't want, he reminds me of all the big arm QB's that rise above where they go..

If they aren't gonna take Ryan it comes down to Brohm or Henne or no QB....hell according to that Brohm and Henne are the best guys.

I agree. Flacco has a slow release as well.

Mecca · 04-24-2008, 08:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beach tribe

I agree. Flacco has a slow release as well.

To me he is Drew Bledsoe just very unpolished and unrefined, if he fixes his mechanics and footwork he becomes a poor mans Drew Bledsoe.

Chief Wiggum · 04-24-2008, 08:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecca

It's actually up on ESPN.com

Yeah, it is football outsiders. They moonlighted for ESPN over the last year. They are incredibly bright guys: everything they write is based on numbers and statistical regressions. Not everything they write is right, but they get a lot more right then they get wrong.

If you like this type of analysis, I highly recommend the following book:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0452289734

Mods: I'm not pimping this book because I have an interest in it, just thought others might appreciate it.

**dirk digler** · 04-24-2008, 08:42 PM

I know I read or heard some where that Carl really likes Henne. If he is there in the 2nd round the Chiefs might grab him

Coogs · 04-24-2008, 08:42 PM

I know it is impossible to do this, but I wonder what kind of numbers Ryan would have put up at LSU with the same cast Russell had?

Hammock Parties · 04-24-2008, 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecca

To me he is Drew Bledsoe just very unpolished and unrefined, if he fixes his mechanics and footwork he becomes a poor mans Drew Bledsoe.

Flacco moves a lot better than Bledsoe ever did.

**Mr. Kotter** · 04-24-2008, 08:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dirk digler

I know I read or heard some where that Carl really likes Henne. If he is there in the 2nd round the Chiefs might grab him

Damn, I hope not. I consider Henne the second coming of Drew Henson.

**dirk digler** · 04-24-2008, 08:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mr. Kotter

Damn, I hope not. I consider Henne the second coming of Drew Henson.

or the second coming of Tom Brady.

Mecca · 04-24-2008, 08:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GOATSE

Flacco moves a lot better than Bledsoe ever did.

Bledsoe wasn't that immobile in his younger years......Flacco also needs to gain some weight.

04-24-2008, 08:27 PM
Mecca Hockey Town Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Kansas City, Missouri Casino cash: $-702950	College stats don't lie (QB's) There are plenty of numbers bandied about at NFL draft time -- 40-yard dash times, bench press reps, vertical jump heights and even Wonderlic test results. All are familiar to most NFL fans. And yet, we rarely hear experts mention a player's college statistics. Most fans assume college stats are not accurate predictors of NFL performance. That's not always the case. My research of highly drafted quarterbacks since 1996 found that two college statistics adequately predict future NFL performance: games started and completion percentage. In fact, where a quarterback is selected in the draft has virtually no bearing on his NFL success. Games started and completion percentage are far better than the scouts at determining how good a player will be. Over the past 12 years, teams have repeatedly drafted players who haven't shown the ability to consistently complete passes at the college level, and these players have consistently failed. For some reason, scouts expected players such as Kyle Boller (48 percent), Jim Druckenmiller (54 percent) and Ryan Leaf (54 percent) to suddenly figure out how to complete passes once they hit the NFL. Having a high completion percentage (60 percent or higher) is no guarantee of success, especially if it was done in a small number of games in a fluky system (Tim Couch being a strong example), but it is a prerequisite for it. As to why games started should be an indicator of NFL success, there is a fairly obvious explanation -- good players start games. No one knows a player better than his coach, and if a coach decides he's good enough to start as a freshman, that's a good sign. Playing time also provides experience, which is crucial to the development of a young quarterback. However, there is a more complex reason why games started is an important indicator. In general, NFL scouts do an excellent job of talent evaluation when they have enough information. The more film that exists of a player, the easier it is to find weaknesses. When scouts don't get sufficient information, they place too much weight on "measurables" and off-field workouts, and make mistakes like Couch, Leaf or Akili Smith. Sometimes, when a player starts a lot of games, scouts have enough film to figure out that he is truly a "system quarterback," and not an NFL prospect. That's why Kliff Kingsbury and Chris Leak were not drafted high despite strong college numbers. Because of the assumption that scouts can do their job with the right information, these projections apply only to quarterbacks chosen in the first two rounds. What does this analysis tell us about this year's crop of young quarterbacks? Let's look at the four passers likely to be chosen on the first day of the draft. Matt Ryan (32 starts, 59.9 percent completion rate) Ryan, likely to be the only quarterback selected in the top 10, and perhaps the whole of the first round, has great physical tools and looks the part. He stands tall in the pocket and delivers the ball with authority. However, his collegiate stats are average. The completion rate is a little less disappointing when we consider Ryan played in a downfield passing NFL-style offense for a coach who completely abandoned the running game and let Ryan throw an absurd 654 pass attempts (second-most in the nation). I'm sure facing defenses that knew Boston College was a pass-first team hurt Ryan's senior numbers. His senior completion percentage was 59 percent, but he completed 62 percent of passes the previous two years when the team was more balanced. Nonetheless, I would be wary of guaranteeing $20 million to a guy who was not stellar in college. Statistically, the most similar recent college quarterbacks were Patrick Ramsey and Rex Grossman, who were a little worse, and Eli Manning, who was a little better. That's not a great group of comparable players, and taking Ryan in the top five is a significant risk. Brian Brohm (33 starts, 65.8 percent completion rate) A year ago, Brohm topped Mel Kiper's first 2008 draft board. Now it is a question whether he will even go in the first round. What changed over the last year? The answer is nothing. Brohm's weaknesses -- arm strength and mobility -- are the same as they were a year ago. So are his strengths: touch, decision-making, pocket presence and a strong work ethic. You can question his durability, but he had the same injuries in his past when he was a projected No. 1 overall pick a year ago. However, Louisville struggled this past season, finishing with a 6-6 record. So if we punished quarterback prospects because they played on bad teams, nobody in Denver would own a Jay Cutler replica jersey. Statistically, Brohm has a profile that points to success. His 33 starts are less than stellar, and the injuries that kept him from starting more should be cause for concern, but his career completion percentage is the stuff NFL stars are made of. It is possible Brohm could fail -- maybe he'll get injured again, perhaps the completion percentage will prove to be the product of a gimmicky college offense -- but if I could pick him in the second half of the first round, I would be awfully excited about it. Joe Flacco (26 starts, 63.4 percent completion rate) The numbers that Flacco put up at Division I-AA Delaware are quite good. Completing 63.4 percent of passes is impressive, even against lesser competition. The problem is that Flacco ended up at Delaware in the first place, which is the same reason why he started only 26 games. Flacco initially went to Pittsburgh. He redshirted his freshman year, and was unable to beat out Tyler Palko for the starting job after Dave Wannstedt arrived as head coach the following year. Palko went undrafted last year. If Flacco is as good as scouts believe he is, why didn't Wannstedt see that he was better than Palko? Wannstedt may not be the best coach in college football, but it is hard to believe he was that wrong. Flacco is not a bad prospect, but seems like the kind of guy you take a flier on the second day, not someone who should be getting a multimillion-dollar signing bonus. Chad Henne (47 starts, 59.7 percent completion rate) Henne is the type of player scouts never miss on -- a four-year starter from an elite college program. His 59.7 percent completion rate isn't bad, but it isn't that good either. Henne never displayed the consistency of an elite quarterback while at Michigan, but he did show an NFL arm. Henne's college stats are quite similar to those of another big-time recruit from a big-time school who had an inconsistent career -- Carson Palmer. Palmer started 45 games and completed 59.1 percent of passes, but finished on a positive note by winning the Rose Bowl and Heisman Trophy and consequently went No. 1 overall. Henne didn't finish as strong, and isn't quite as good a prospect, but isn't as far off as some might think. After a nice performance at the Senior Bowl, he seems to have an outside shot at the first round, and would be a good pick there. He is a virtual lock to be at least an above-average professional. That speaks well to the people who like Brohm...
Posts: 115,374

04-24-2008, 08:31 PM	#2
Chief Wiggum 5 Yr Plan Take 5 Join Date: Jul 2007 Location: Bay Area - California Casino cash: $10004900	Is this from the football outsiders guys? I've read similar things to this before. I do a lot of that type of analysis for risk position at my job and find it very interesting and a completely different way of looking at sports.
Posts: 212

04-24-2008, 08:32 PM	#3
Mecca Hockey Town Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Kansas City, Missouri Casino cash: $-702950	It's actually up on ESPN.com
Posts: 115,374

04-24-2008, 08:32 PM	#4
BigVE Veteran Join Date: Apr 2001 Location: centralKs Casino cash: $10005250	If we end up with any of the top 3 qb's I will be alright with that. Ryan, Brohm, Flacco...no problem unless it's with the 5th pick. __________________ Meh.
Posts: 4,829

04-24-2008, 08:34 PM	#5
Mecca Hockey Town Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Kansas City, Missouri Casino cash: $-702950	Flacco is the one I really don't want, he reminds me of all the big arm QB's that rise above where they go.. If they aren't gonna take Ryan it comes down to Brohm or Henne or no QB....hell according to that Brohm and Henne are the best guys.
Posts: 115,374

04-24-2008, 08:35 PM	#6
beach tribe Keep doubting J MFing Houston Join Date: May 2007 Location: ft.lauderdale Casino cash: $3898036	I agree with this.
Posts: 21,429

04-24-2008, 08:42 PM	#10
dirk digler Please squeeze Join Date: Jul 2003 Location: Clinton, MO Casino cash: $124644	I know I read or heard some where that Carl really likes Henne. If he is there in the 2nd round the Chiefs might grab him
Posts: 67,116

04-24-2008, 08:42 PM	#11
Coogs In Search of a Life Join Date: Aug 2000 Location: Northern Kansas Casino cash: $-2255651	I know it is impossible to do this, but I wonder what kind of numbers Ryan would have put up at LSU with the same cast Russell had?
Posts: 21,909