Football Outsiders Player Projections for the Chiefs

[Quesadilla Joe]

Jamal Charles Projected stats for 2009144 carries, 605 yards, 4.2 YPC, 3 TD's, 2 FUM, -2.9% DVOA

Jamal Charles is a very fast runner who patiently looks for running lanes rather than lowering his shoulder and pushing the pile. That makes him an excellent fit for the "pistol" style attack KC ran last year and the shotgun spread attack Todd Haley ran in Arizona. As with most smaller RB's, there are questions about whether Charles could handle a start's workload, but Haley isn't going to have his starting RB carry the ball 25 times a game anyway. His fantasy sleeper value may depend on how allergic Larry Johnson's ego is to the word "committee."

Larry Johnson- 214 carries, 946 yards, 4.4 Yards per carry, 10 TD's, 4 FUM, 14.1% DVOA

Johnson may have lost half of 2007 to the curse of 370, but his 2008 season was the bigger mess. He rang up his fourth arrest for assault after allegedly spitting a drink in a woman's face at a KC nightclub, and was suspended by the Chiefs for one game and the league for another. On the field, the Chiefs' transition to a spread shotgun attack meant more playing time for Jamaal Charles and less for Johnson. By the end of the year, he was telling the press, "The city is tired of me, and the organization and I have run our course together. It's time to move on for me." The arrival of Scott Pioli and Todd Haley probably didn't make him feel better, because he's still a pound the rock guy living in a spread the field world. The Chiefs may still try to deal Johnson during the preseason, but you have to wonder what a team will give up for a RB with a monster contract and very little tread left on his tires. Sure, he averaged 4.5 yards per carry last year, but that was inflated by a schedule of bad run defenses; DVOA says he wasn't much better than the year before.

Kolby Smith- 45 runs, 203 yards, 4.5 YPC, 2 TD, 2 FUM 1.3% DVOA

It was Smith, not Jamaal Charles, who drew starting duties when LJ was suspended at midseason, but he struggled for two games and tore his ACL in the third. He missed May minicamps because he wasn't ready to get on the field yet, but if he's healthy by the time the season starts, Todd Haley will find a way to use him. Although Smith doesn't have the straight-ahead speed to be a starting back, his mix of size and quickness would fit well in a hybrid FB/HB role similar to Heath Evans or Greg Jones.

Dwayne Bowe- 84 rec, 142 targets, 1194 YDS, 59% catch%, 14.2 YD/C, 10 TD's, 15.5% DVOA

Bowe has settled in nicely as KC's top receiver, and he'll continue to fly a little bit under the radar until the Chiefs are fully rebuilt. Looking at similarity scores for other receivers entering their 3rd seasons, we get a list that inclueds Andre Johnson, Marques Colston, Marvin Harrison, Keyshawn Johnson, and Joey Galloway.

Mark Bradley- 52 rec, 100 Targets, 705 Yds, 52% catch %, 13.6 Yds per catch, -0.9% DVOA

The wasy comment would be that the Bears got tired of waiting for Bradley to get healthy, but actually, Bradley was healthy for the entire 2007 season and the beginning of 2008, and in 17 games the Bears threw him a grand total of 18 passes, of which he caught only six. So the Bears apparently just got tired of waiting for Bradley, period. KC picked him up when the Bears waived him after two games, and plugged him into the starting lineup for the second half of the year. He was basically a replacement-level receiver, but that's not bad for a guy who joined a team midyear, and he still has some potential. One interesting wrinkle that the Chiefs decided the better way to use his speed was to pick up yards after catching short passes rather than sending him deep a lot. As you can see from that 2008 YAC figure, it didn't quite work at first, but things might be different with Matt Cassel under center -- consider the ridiculous YAC the Patriots put up a year ago.

Brad Cottam - 36 REC, 57 targets, 386 yds, 63% catch%, 10.8 ypc, 3 TD, 10.6% DVOA

Scott Piolil will get the accolades when the KC Chiefs are rebuilt, but Cottam is yet another example of how the previous administration set him up with a very smart draft in 2008. They knew Tony Gonzalez was itching to get out of town, but they also weren't planning on dealing him right away, so they could use a 3rd round pick to grab a raw TE prospect who combined size, intelligence, and an excellent work ethic with very little collegiate experience. (Cottam missed his sophomore year after a car accident and lost most of his senior year to a dislocated wrist.) One year later, after apprenticing under Gonzalez, Cottam is ready to enter the starting lineup. Of course, it is hard to say how much actual playing time that means with Todd Haley running the show. Last year, Haley's Arizona offense had a tight end on the field only 58 percent of the time, while every other offense in the NFL used a TE on at least 70 percent of plays. Cottam is a traditional tight end who blocks well and provides a big target to move the sticks on 3rd down, not a receiver first type.

Matt Cassel- 299/501, 59.6 com%, 3277 yards, 20 TD, 14 Int, 5.9 Net yards per play, 3.6% DVOA

Cassel's ascent after Tom Brady's knee injury came from a few factors beyond the young quarterback himself.

The Patriots had a shotgun-heavy, short-and-long passing game set up for the former seventh-round pick from USC. The shotgun sets, which comprised 405 of his 516 pass attempts, gave Cassel a clean pocket and time enough to scan the field and hit his targets. What looks good for him in Kansas City is that new head coach Todd Haley made his bones drawing up game plans for Kurt Warner last year, and those game plans featured 69 percent shotgun sets. The fumbles and sack rate are reasons for concern, and he doesn't have the same quality of targets in K.C., but Cassel should avoid the major schematic transitions some quarterbacks face when working with new teams. The Patriots also rose from 25th in passing DVOA in the season's first half to third in the final eight games, a solid indicator that Cassel's getting the hang of the pro game.

Miscellaneous stats about last year's Chiefs:
KC set an NFL record by using Shotgun on 63 percent of offensive plays. Three teams used shotgun at least half the time last year: the Chiefs, the team whose offensive coordinator now coaches the Chiefs (Arizona, 50 percent), and the team whose QB was traded to the Chiefs (New England, 55 percent).
In 2007, the Chiefs were significantly better passing to the left side of the field compared to the right side. In 2008, things were reversed: the Chiefs ranked 31st in DVOA on passes to the left but seventh on passes to the right.
Tyler Thigpen benefited more than any QB from dropped INT's, with nine.
Cincinatti and Arizona were the only offenses to use play-action less often than the Chiefs, while Cincinnati and Denver were the only defenses to face play-action more often than the Chiefs. 2008 was the second straight year the Chiefs ranked 3rd in frequency of play-action by opponents.