Barnwell on Derek Carr

[the Talking Can]

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page...orget-help-nfl

Carr's offensive line allowed him to do things that were relative luxuries for Bortles and Bridgewater, like breathe in the pocket without fearing for his life. Carr was pressured on only 21.6 percent of his dropbacks, the fifth-lowest rate among starting quarterbacks. A quarterback who gets the ball out quickly can distort that number (see: Tom Brady), but other metrics suggest that wasn't the case with Carr. He took 2.44 seconds before his typical pass, 15th in the league. Carr's average throw traveled 7.67 yards in the air, which was slightly below league average and one full yard deeper than the typical Bridgewater pass (6.66)...


It's another Oakland credo to go after enormous receivers. Carr's average pass went to a receiver who was 74.3 inches tall (a little over 6 feet 2), giving him the fourth-largest receiving corps in football. (Jacksonville's grouping was third.) Sadly, they weren't always his friends. Oakland's pass-catchers, which will return virtually unchanged in 2016, dropped 5.1 percent of Carr's throws last year. That was the fifth-worst rate in the league. It's hard to see these receivers combining to drop as many passes in 2016, particularly Cooper, who should be healthier after struggling through plantar fasciitis a year ago. While analyses suggesting Cooper dropped 18 passes seem off the mark, ESPN Stats & Information has Cooper down for 10 drops on 126 targets, the second-highest total in the league behind Tampa's Mike Evans.

The one perhaps concerning quirk surrounding Carr's 2015 season is what happened as it went along: Namely, Carr got worse. A lot worse. His QBR during Weeks 1-9, covering Oakland's first eight games, was 11th in the league at 66.6. During Oakland's final eight games, Carr's QBR dropped to just 35.1, leaving him 28th out of 29 passers. Only Bortles, coincidentally, was worse. Carr's decline came under duress. He had the league's lowest pressure rate during the first half of the year, at 17.6 percent. Over the final eight weeks, that pressure rate leaped up to 25.0 percent. That was only eighth in the league, but it was enough to help throw Carr off track....


There is something that will have to improve, though, fluke or otherwise: Late in games, for whatever reason, Carr was a mess. He posted a 19.9 QBR in the fourth quarter and overtime, which was the second-worst mark in the league ahead of Nick Foles. Bortles, one spot ahead of Carr, finished at 31.2. Seven of Carr's 13 picks came in the fourth quarter and OT, despite the fact that he threw only 31 percent of his passes during that time frame. Only Matthew Stafford had a higher interception rate in the fourth quarter/OT (6.8 percent) than Carr (5.3 percent).

[rico]

Jeff Fisher...

2013, 13 games played, 27 TD's and 2 INT's....and looked awesome doing it.

Foles needs to get back in his groove.

[RunKC]

Carr has a really bad pocket presence and has some Favre/Cutler in him aka he makes stupid ass mistakes that are easy to avoid.

Look at the Mauga INT return and Parker INT that we had against him lass year. No Justin Houston and Carr sat in the pocket for damn near 10 seconds before giving us the ball back.

[staylor26]

Like I've said before, Carr is extremely overrated.

[Chiefs=Champions]

Have been saying this for a while, he's overrated. horrible against the rush and when it matters. He might improve, but he has a long way to go.

[O.city]

He's probably a little overrated right now, but his stating last year in terms of yardage and touchdowns would be chiefs all time records.

He was also just a 2nd year qb. I hope this trend continues in the turnover area, but for a 2nd year qb, I'd take it.

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

Originally Posted by staylor26

Like I've said before, Carr is extremely overrated.

Absolutely. So many Carr lovers on this board who are drinking the kool aid. Which is funny cause they are the same people who raved about manuel, and then bridgewater, and Tannehill.

[TigeRRUppeRRcut]

He's a guy like that looks good against terrible teams. And then against average to good teams he's the type of QB that will absolutely lose games for his team

[pugsnotdrugs19]

I think he's overhyped but at the end of the day they have the team around him now to make things interesting.

So far he hasn't proven capable of playing well against good defenses, or late in games. That's gotta turn around before he's one of the top guys in the league.

[rico]

Originally Posted by TigerUppercut

Absolutely. So many Carr lovers on this board who are drinking the kool aid. Which is funny cause they are the same people who raved about manuel, and then bridgewater, and Tannehill.

There were guys who jerked their Gerkins to Bridgewater and Tannehill...but Manuel?

Maybe I missed something. I was shocked when he went in the first as the first QB taken... a lot of the reason why I was shocked was because of how CP generally didn't like him.

[DJ's left nut]

Originally Posted by pugsnotdrugs19

I think he's overhyped but at the end of the day they have the team around him now to make things interesting.

So far he hasn't proven capable of playing well against good defenses, or late in games. That's gotta turn around before he's one of the top guys in the league.

He's a little overhyped, sure.

But he's also a guy that is young and inexperienced enough that he could actually grow into what people were calling him last year.

He wasn't a top 15 QB last year, IMO. But with continued growth, he could easily surpass that.

For this season, I'd take Smith over Carr. For the subsequent seasons? Carr could change that answer pretty dramatically.

[rico]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

He's a little overhyped, sure.

But he's also a guy that is young and inexperienced enough that he could actually grow into what people were calling him last year.

He wasn't a top 15 QB last year, IMO. But with continued growth, he could easily surpass that.

For this season, I'd take Smith over Carr. For the subsequent seasons? Carr could change that answer pretty dramatically.

Yup.

[NWTF]

If he plays the rest of his career to the point he has his first two years then he will be nothing more than an average QB, nothing special at all.

Hes a little overrated but that always comes with youth/potential. He posted some pretty good numbers for a guy in his 2nd year on a below average team. I can see why the hype is there. He will have to deliver this year or the hype will fade. Bortles may prove to be better but from what Ive seen Carr is easily better than Bridgewater who looks to be a classic game manager in the making, but with the better D he doesnt have to take as many chances as Carr,Bortles at the end of games.

[RunKC]

Carr needs good coaching. Andy would have helped him a lot with the dumb mistakes.

Still wish we would have drafted him and say him him for a year. Carr is way better than Ford as of today.

[beach tribe]

Originally Posted by DJ's left nut

He's a little overhyped, sure.

But he's also a guy that is young and inexperienced enough that he could actually grow into what people were calling him last year.

He wasn't a top 15 QB last year, IMO. But with continued growth, he could easily surpass that.

For this season, I'd take Smith over Carr. For the subsequent seasons? Carr could change that answer pretty dramatically.

This place is notorious for it's ridiculous expectations of players who have not had sufficient time or experience to develop.

They can't ever look at the bigger picture in regards to various aspects of the individual or overall team outlook.

I'm talking about a huge majority of the people here.