NFL Draft Most worthless stat in the NFL?

dlphg9 · 11:05 PM

Bwillie said this in the MVP thread.

Quote:

Originally Posted by BWillie

Mahomes is clearly better than Smith. I'm not debating that. I'm saying Alex Smith (who clearly sucked) had a 105 QB Rating in this offense. Mahomes has a 114. Smith had a 85 QB rating this year at Washington. Our system and weapons are very conducive to success. Credit Andy Reid. But in 2-3 years - look for Mahomes to break the QB rating record and the TD record. He's only 23 after all.

So this got me curious as to what stats can get you to a 105 QB rating.

15-23 191yds 1 td

Over a season that gives you

65% comp. 3056 yds, 16 tds, 0 ints

Which is absolute trash. Qb rating is a pretty bad way to judge qbs unless youre trying to proven a QB is bad.

Messing with the QB rating calculator I put in

15 for 23 325yds 3 tds and 0 ints

Thats a 148.1 passer rating

So I was seeing what 1 more td would do to the passer rating and to my surprise it didnt change, so then I changed the yards to 500, so 15 for 23 500 yds and 4 tds hit calculate

Passer Rating
148.1

So the max passer rating a QB can have with 15 completions and 23 attempts is 148.1. Wouldn't you think a QB who went 15-23 500 yds and 4 tds would be perfect? Well its not, so I wanted to see what would happen if you added just 1 more completion to the original example making the stat line be

16-23 325 yds 3tds 0 ints

By God, that got the passer rating to go up to 151.72. So I kept adding completions until it made it perfect and it only took 2 more.

So according to the passer rating calculator 18-23 325 yds 3 tds and 0 ints is considered perfect and better than 15-23 500 yds 5 tds. At a certain point completions are more important than yards and TDs when calculating passer rating.

What I think they should do is get rid of passer rating all together, since it inflates the value of mediocre QBs, i.e. Alex Smith, just because they have high completion rates.

TL;DR

Eat my ass pussies. Dont read it if its such a burden to you.

dlphg9 · 12-27-2018, 10:07 PM

Not sure what messed up the quote box. If a mod could fix thatd be great!

**cdcox** · 12-27-2018, 10:08 PM

It's tackles without a doubt. Hitchens leads the team.

ThaVirus · 12-27-2018, 10:11 PM

Most stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, but I'd put passer rating, tackles and passing yards at the top of the list of 'statistics that require context'.

DrunkBassGuitar · 12-27-2018, 10:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dlphg9

Not sure what messed up the quote box. If a mod could fix thatd be great!

You have a \ in the first quote tag.

WhiteWhale · 12-27-2018, 10:23 PM

I've always said the biggest problem with the classic passer rating is that it places WAY too much value on completion percentage. I didn't know it was this bad really.

BWillie · 12-27-2018, 10:23 PM

Passing yards and tackles.

**New World Order** · 12-27-2018, 10:30 PM

Completion %

Red Dawg · 12-27-2018, 10:44 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by New World Order

Completion %

Definitely this. Its completely overused as winning.

mcaj22 · 12-28-2018, 12:11 AM

tackles and sacks are def up there in phony stats

Wallcrawler · 12-28-2018, 12:11 AM

Hidden touchdowns. By far

RINGLEADER · 12-28-2018, 12:21 AM

It's a stupid stat. They're trying to base the rating on historical averages but in the modern passing game it really is dumb.

Never knew that it "capped" at certain completion percentages.

15 for 23 for 10,000 yards and 100 TDs and 0 INTs is no better than your examples.

Dumb stat.

People arguing for Drew Brees to be MVP are hanging their hat on completion percentage and the fact that he never won the award. Not that he's the best player this season.

**Rain Man** · 12-28-2018, 01:06 AM

Touchdown pass percentage. It's nearly meaningless because it really depends on your running game and your propensity to throw in the red zone.

JD10367 · 12-28-2018, 01:28 AM

Passing yards. A quarterback can throw a 2 yard pass and the guy runs it 90 yards for a TD.

jaa1025 · 12-28-2018, 03:04 AM

I hate the new Tight Window stat that people are throwing around. It can be used to make any argument that you want. It punishes QB's for manipulating defenses with their eyes, legs or throws that get their receivers open. Mahomes has been phenomenal at this and does it consistent. Plus, he has incredible vision and will find the open WR almost every time compared to an Alex Smith who often completely didn't see an open WR and would settle for a contested throw or a dump off.

12-27-2018, 10:07 PM	#2
dlphg9 In Search of a Life Join Date: Oct 2010 Casino cash: $-1420347	Not sure what messed up the quote box. If a mod could fix thatd be great!
Posts: 20,361

12-27-2018, 10:08 PM	#3
cdcox www.nfl-forecast.com Join Date: Sep 2000 Casino cash: $-468231	It's tackles without a doubt. Hitchens leads the team.
Posts: 46,032

12-27-2018, 10:11 PM	#4
ThaVirus 5 o’clock free crack giveaway Join Date: Sep 2007 Casino cash: $-1607631	Most stats have to be taken with a grain of salt, but I'd put passer rating, tackles and passing yards at the top of the list of 'statistics that require context'.
Posts: 46,919

12-27-2018, 10:23 PM	#6
WhiteWhale Bring it on Ahab! Join Date: May 2011 Location: Doo-Dah Casino cash: $10015152	I've always said the biggest problem with the classic passer rating is that it places WAY too much value on completion percentage. I didn't know it was this bad really.
Posts: 14,861

12-27-2018, 10:23 PM	#7
BWillie Are you ready to Rumble? Join Date: Apr 2006 Casino cash: $-1248759	Passing yards and tackles.
Posts: 52,462

12-27-2018, 10:30 PM	#8
New World Order Choco Favre Join Date: Jul 2012 Casino cash: $-1015235	Completion %
Posts: 32,123	1 0

12-28-2018, 12:11 AM	#10
mcaj22 MVP Join Date: Feb 2010 Casino cash: $10014454	tackles and sacks are def up there in phony stats
Posts: 11,886

12-28-2018, 12:21 AM	#12
RINGLEADER In Search of a Life Join Date: Dec 2001 Location: Confusion, USA Casino cash: $8070503	It's a stupid stat. They're trying to base the rating on historical averages but in the modern passing game it really is dumb. Never knew that it "capped" at certain completion percentages. 15 for 23 for 10,000 yards and 100 TDs and 0 INTs is no better than your examples. Dumb stat. People arguing for Drew Brees to be MVP are hanging their hat on completion percentage and the fact that he never won the award. Not that he's the best player this season.
Posts: 48,487

12-28-2018, 01:06 AM	#13
Rain Man Seize life. Be an ermine. Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $-462449 VARSITY	Touchdown pass percentage. It's nearly meaningless because it really depends on your running game and your propensity to throw in the red zone. __________________ Active fan of the greatest team in NFL history.
Posts: 145,264

12-28-2018, 01:28 AM	#14
JD10367 Cheaterlover* Join Date: May 2009 Location: RI Casino cash: $10010716	Passing yards. A quarterback can throw a 2 yard pass and the guy runs it 90 yards for a TD.
Posts: 12,916

12-28-2018, 03:04 AM	#15
jaa1025 Veteran Join Date: Nov 2006 Casino cash: $10000898	I hate the new Tight Window stat that people are throwing around. It can be used to make any argument that you want. It punishes QB's for manipulating defenses with their eyes, legs or throws that get their receivers open. Mahomes has been phenomenal at this and does it consistent. Plus, he has incredible vision and will find the open WR almost every time compared to an Alex Smith who often completely didn't see an open WR and would settle for a contested throw or a dump off.
Posts: 2,922