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Old 03-07-2023, 01:55 PM  
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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What it takes to move up from 31.
How about an inconsequential thread to help your day move along.

If you want to go up aggressively and get a tackle, here's a rough sketch of trades I've been able to pull off in simulators.

That doesn't mean they're exact, but they're about what you need to do.

To get from 31 to............

8
2023 1st
2023 2nd
2024 1st

10
2023 1st
2023 2nd
2024 2nd

12
2023 1st
2023 2nd
2024 2nd
----> get a 2024 4th in return

15
2023 1st
2024 2nd
TE Noah Gray lol

18
2023 1st
2023 3rd
2024 3rd

20
2023 1st
2023 3rd
2023 4th
2024 5th

23
2023 1st
2023 3rd

25
2023 1st
2024 3rd
----> get a 2024 4th in return

28
2023 1st
2023 4th
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Old 03-07-2023, 02:56 PM   #2
Chris Meck Chris Meck is offline
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I'd do 23 for a guy if he's THE guy they want. Pretty much LT or DE only.
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Old 03-07-2023, 05:08 PM   #3
Abba-Dabba Abba-Dabba is offline
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Going to make a thread with some trade down scenarios?

Just not excited by what I see by moving up.
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Old 03-07-2023, 08:01 PM   #4
Chris Meck Chris Meck is offline
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I could get behind moving up as long as it doesn't include this year's #2, or any of next year's first three picks.

So a 1 and 3 I'd do. You can still package a 4th to move up in the second if there's a difference maker there.
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Old 03-07-2023, 08:43 PM   #5
Abba-Dabba Abba-Dabba is offline
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Trading down interests me. I know it is not likely to happen, but the meat of this draft is in the middle rounds.

I made one trade on this from NFLMock earlier today. Traded 31, for 61, 93 and 4th in 2024. Overall, I think I would be happy with a haul like this in a trade down scenario. Missing a few needs but those would obviously have to be addressed in free agency.

61 Derick Hall EDGE | Auburn
63 Adetomiwa Adebawore EDGE | Northwestern
93 Blake Freeland OT | BYU - Need a stop gap for a year
95 Jonathan Mingo WR | Mississippi
122 Jayden Reed WR | Michigan State
134 Darius Rush CB | South Carolina
168 Trey Palmer WR | Nebraska
197 Hunter Luepke RB | North Dakota State - Move to FB
217 Keaton Mitchell RB | East Carolina
219 Nick Saldiveri OT | Old Dominion
227 Rejzohn Wright CB | Oregon State
251 Tre Tucker WR | Cincinnati
257 Lonnie Phelps EDGE | Kansas

I'm aware that I completely neglected DT for 4 WR's, but nothing ever fell worth the spots to pick one. .But I took a need vs. BPA approach and that is what I came out with.
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Old 03-07-2023, 09:12 PM   #6
Chris Meck Chris Meck is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Abba-Dabba View Post
Trading down interests me. I know it is not likely to happen, but the meat of this draft is in the middle rounds.

I made one trade on this from NFLMock earlier today. Traded 31, for 61, 93 and 4th in 2024. Overall, I think I would be happy with a haul like this in a trade down scenario. Missing a few needs but those would obviously have to be addressed in free agency.

61 Derick Hall EDGE | Auburn
63 Adetomiwa Adebawore EDGE | Northwestern
93 Blake Freeland OT | BYU - Need a stop gap for a year
95 Jonathan Mingo WR | Mississippi
122 Jayden Reed WR | Michigan State
134 Darius Rush CB | South Carolina
168 Trey Palmer WR | Nebraska
197 Hunter Luepke RB | North Dakota State - Move to FB
217 Keaton Mitchell RB | East Carolina
219 Nick Saldiveri OT | Old Dominion
227 Rejzohn Wright CB | Oregon State
251 Tre Tucker WR | Cincinnati
257 Lonnie Phelps EDGE | Kansas

I'm aware that I completely neglected DT for 4 WR's, but nothing ever fell worth the spots to pick one. .But I took a need vs. BPA approach and that is what I came out with.
There's just no way four WR's make the team is all.
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Old 03-07-2023, 09:15 PM   #7
The Franchise The Franchise is offline
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Originally Posted by Chris Meck View Post
I'd do 23 for a guy if he's THE guy they want. Pretty much LT or DE only.
I could be talked into 18 and giving up a 3rd this year and one next year.
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Old 03-07-2023, 09:22 PM   #8
Abba-Dabba Abba-Dabba is offline
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There's just no way four WR's make the team is all.
Oh, I agree. I was going to say that would never happen.

I just thought it was interesting seeing all the value that could be there in the middle rounds.
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Old 03-07-2023, 10:33 PM   #9
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OP where did you find this at? Would be fun to play with
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Old 03-07-2023, 10:49 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by Chris Meck View Post
I could get behind moving up as long as it doesn't include this year's #2, or any of next year's first three picks.

So a 1 and 3 I'd do. You can still package a 4th to move up in the second if there's a difference maker there.
We should get multiple good comp picks next year so I’m totally fine spending a third and fourth to move up to around 20 to get a guy like Van Ness
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Old 03-08-2023, 01:05 AM   #11
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Your calculations sure look a bit light here.

There is some discounting of future year's picks. Usually somewhere between the middle of the next round and half of this year's pick. So a 1st next year will have a value somewhere between 95 and 121 points on the Hill model. I usually shoot for some average so call it 108. That means a future first can get you somewhere around 17-18.

I'd say our 1-3-f3 will get you to about 22, not 18. 1-3-4 got us to 21 last year from 29 and a current 4 and future 3 have nearly the same value. 18 seems more like a 1-3-f2.

There is variance though in historical trades so it's not an exact science. Just something for you to think about and maybe dig into.
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Old 03-08-2023, 08:29 AM   #12
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Going to make a thread with some trade down scenarios?

Just not excited by what I see by moving up.
Yeah, the only issue is that the draft is in KC. I really don't think they're going to trade out of the 1st completely, especially given Clark's comments about it.
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Old 03-08-2023, 08:31 AM   #13
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I doubt you're getting higher than 20/21 ish without using next years 1.

I'm not using next years 1 to trade up for a LT. Take a guy and develop him where you are. Juice ain't worth the squeeze there.
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Old 03-08-2023, 12:10 PM   #14
Abba-Dabba Abba-Dabba is offline
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Yeah, the only issue is that the draft is in KC. I really don't think they're going to trade out of the 1st completely, especially given Clark's comments about it.
I don't think trading down is what they will do either. That's why I said at the start of that post I don't think that happens. But if it does, I don't see that big of gap between those in the bottom of the 1st and the bottom of the 2nd. If we could pick up an additional pick in the Top 100 by trading down from 31, it sure would be nice to have 4 picks in the Top 100 rather than 3.

I'm not completely sold on Clark having to have a 1st round pick. For all it's worth, pick 31 isn't all that much to ring the bell with. I'm just not certain there is really anything to hang your hat on at 31.

Having said that, if the right player falls to them, sure. But spending the 1st on a player that they don't feel very confident about in the 1st isn't really something to ring the bell with. No matter what city is hosting the event. I'm going to look at all scenarios and see where the chips could fall.
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