NFL Draft NFL Draftology: The Safest Pick Myth

**The Franchise** · 01-30-2009, 06:17 PM

http://www.walterfootball.com/nfldraftology378.php

Every year you hear about, "Who is the safest player in the Draft? ... Should this team make the safe pick? ... You do not want to invest millions in a player who is not safe."

Quite frankly, I am getting sick of it. This does not make any sense to me, and I will tell you why later on. I am a big believer that in order to know where you are going, you have to know where you have been. So how did this "safe pick" philosophy come to be?

Well I think over the years as the NFL Draft has become increasingly popular, the busts of the draft have hit the media and draftnik windshield like a huge fly. Ryan Leaf, Heath Schuler, Tony Mandarich, Steve Emtman, Lawrence Phillips, Rae Carruth, Jeff George, Aundray Bruce, Robert Gallery, Mike Williams, the other Mike Williams... the list goes on and on.

Teams remember the busts, forget all of the stars and players who turned out to be solid starters in the league, see the money paid to the top pick and think: "Make the SAFE pick so you don't turn out with a bust."

Robert Gallery was revered by everyone to be the safest pick in the 2004 NFL Draft. Everyone loved him and thought there was no way he was going to bust in the league. Two short arms, a lacking nasty demeanor, and about five years later, here we are.

I think this is a terrible philosophy. Why should teams be scared when they draft a player? I do not understand it at all. If I am a general manager, I attack this draft with confidence; not a conservative mindset.

There is certainly something to be said for not drafting players who are risks, but the bottom line is every player in the draft is somewhat of a risk because they are not professionals yet. You do not know what can happen. Maybe a player has a crazy divorce and loses all self-confidence. Maybe a player has some sick knee injuries no doctor saw coming and was just a case of bad luck. Maybe the personnel around that player really hurt his confidence. Maybe the coaching staff is terrible. And so on.

Here is my philosophy which absolutely shatters the "safe pick myth": MAKE THE BEST PICK.

Period. End of discussion. End of debate. End of argument. I would love for someone to come up to me face-to-face and try to debate me with this philosophy. I would love for someone to say, "You know, maybe you should draft the third- or fourth-best player for this football team rather than the best one."

The bottom line is if a player has character issues, then he isn't the best pick. If a player has serious injury concerns, then he isn't the best pick. If the player has work ethic concerns, then he isn't the best pick.

I am sick of the media and some draftniks not having a clue with what they are talking about with the "safe pick myth." It is a myth. There is something to be said for not wanting to invest in a player with a risky personality or skill set, but if that is true, then is that player the best pick for the football team? Absolutely not.

Now, some players are more risky than others and I understand that, but my perception of the NFL Draft is you need to take the best value on the board in terms of a draft pick for your football team. This encompasses everything I have discussed in my NFL Draftology.

Teams will always make mistakes. We need to accept this to a certain extent. Teams do not get four to five impact players out of the draft every year, which is almost statistically impossible to do.

In the end, if you have one player on the draft board and he is the "safest" pick, but not the best pick, then you have some serious explaining to do.

Buzzsaw · 01-30-2009, 06:23 PM

Quote:

Here is my philosophy which absolutely shatters the "safe pick myth": MAKE THE BEST PICK.

People get paid to write stuff like this?

Seriously, there is some merit to making a "safe pick" IMO. Last year's draft the Jets went for boom or bust prospect Vernon Gholston; Pats took Jerod Mayo, who will be a solid player for a long time, but won't ever win a DPOY award....

theorangelion · 01-30-2009, 06:34 PM

Now we can only reflect on the Cp era not the SP to come era. But the way the Chiefs Pick safe is the way to go.

EyePod · 01-30-2009, 06:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buzzsaw

People get paid to write stuff like this?

Seriously, there is some merit to making a "safe pick" IMO. Last year's draft the Jets went for boom or bust prospect Vernon Gholston; Pats took Jerod Mayo, who will be a solid player for a long time, but won't ever win a DPOY award....

Pat's were also a ****ING great team compared to the JETS. Any rookie would fit in better on a great veteran team bud.

kstater · 01-30-2009, 06:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buzzsaw

People get paid to write stuff like this?

Seriously, there is some merit to making a "safe pick" IMO. Last year's draft the Jets went for boom or bust prospect Vernon Gholston; Pats took Jerod Mayo, who will be a solid player for a long time, but won't ever win a DPOY award....

Sigh...

theorangelion · 01-30-2009, 07:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kstater

Sigh...

Some of your best diatribe kstater.

Mecca · 01-30-2009, 07:35 PM

That article summed it up perfectly and the 1st 2 posts are immediately talking about safe picks, I wish stupidity was something people could be banned for.

Danman · 01-31-2009, 10:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecca

That article summed it up perfectly and the 1st 2 posts are immediately talking about safe picks, I wish stupidity was something people could be banned for.

You can't fix stupid

Uncle_Ted · 01-30-2009, 07:41 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by pestilenceaf23

http://www.walterfootball.com/nfldraftology378.php

The bottom line is if a player has character issues, then he isn't the best pick. If a player has serious injury concerns, then he isn't the best pick. If the player has work ethic concerns, then he isn't the best pick.

Wow, this guy really went "full reerun". Those 3 qualities are pretty much the very definition of a "safe" pick!

Rigodan · 01-30-2009, 09:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uncle_Ted

Wow, this guy really went "full reerun". Those 3 qualities are pretty much the very definition of a "safe" pick!

I think walter wrote this in response to all the lions " don't take a qb its too risky e-mails"

patteeu · 01-31-2009, 01:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Uncle_Ted

Wow, this guy really went "full reerun". Those 3 qualities are pretty much the very definition of a "safe" pick!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Saul Good

He's a disappointment, but he's not a bust. He's certainly not a monumental bust. Neither is Robert Gallery.

Anyone who starts in the league for a decade is not a bust no matter where they are taken. Junior Siavii was a bust. Greg Hill was a bust. Todd Blackledge was a bust. Those are guys who couldn't make it in the league.

Gallery and Davis are solid contributers, even if they aren't the stars.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Molitoth

What a terrible article.

Three very good posts, IMO.

Mecca · 01-30-2009, 07:50 PM

No pick is safe that's the damn point.

beach tribe · 01-31-2009, 01:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecca

No pick is safe that's the damn point.

TRUTH. The risk is the same with every position.

Although......the reward is not.

Mecca · 01-31-2009, 02:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by beach tribe

TRUTH. The risk is the same with every position.

Although......the reward is not.

This is a forum were there was a thread about if Will Shields and a Pro Bowl QB are equal in value, ponder that.

'Hamas' Jenkins · 01-30-2009, 07:56 PM

Chiefs fans are the dumbest mother****ers in the entire NFL. Wanting to emulate a team that never did anything, constantly reacting out of fear rather than acting.

01-30-2009, 06:17 PM	Topic Starter
The Franchise Most Valuable Villain Join Date: Dec 2006 Casino cash: $2065047	NFL Draftology: The Safest Pick Myth http://www.walterfootball.com/nfldraftology378.php Every year you hear about, "Who is the safest player in the Draft? ... Should this team make the safe pick? ... You do not want to invest millions in a player who is not safe." Quite frankly, I am getting sick of it. This does not make any sense to me, and I will tell you why later on. I am a big believer that in order to know where you are going, you have to know where you have been. So how did this "safe pick" philosophy come to be? Well I think over the years as the NFL Draft has become increasingly popular, the busts of the draft have hit the media and draftnik windshield like a huge fly. Ryan Leaf, Heath Schuler, Tony Mandarich, Steve Emtman, Lawrence Phillips, Rae Carruth, Jeff George, Aundray Bruce, Robert Gallery, Mike Williams, the other Mike Williams... the list goes on and on. Teams remember the busts, forget all of the stars and players who turned out to be solid starters in the league, see the money paid to the top pick and think: "Make the SAFE pick so you don't turn out with a bust." Robert Gallery was revered by everyone to be the safest pick in the 2004 NFL Draft. Everyone loved him and thought there was no way he was going to bust in the league. Two short arms, a lacking nasty demeanor, and about five years later, here we are. I think this is a terrible philosophy. Why should teams be scared when they draft a player? I do not understand it at all. If I am a general manager, I attack this draft with confidence; not a conservative mindset. There is certainly something to be said for not drafting players who are risks, but the bottom line is every player in the draft is somewhat of a risk because they are not professionals yet. You do not know what can happen. Maybe a player has a crazy divorce and loses all self-confidence. Maybe a player has some sick knee injuries no doctor saw coming and was just a case of bad luck. Maybe the personnel around that player really hurt his confidence. Maybe the coaching staff is terrible. And so on. Here is my philosophy which absolutely shatters the "safe pick myth": MAKE THE BEST PICK. Period. End of discussion. End of debate. End of argument. I would love for someone to come up to me face-to-face and try to debate me with this philosophy. I would love for someone to say, "You know, maybe you should draft the third- or fourth-best player for this football team rather than the best one." The bottom line is if a player has character issues, then he isn't the best pick. If a player has serious injury concerns, then he isn't the best pick. If the player has work ethic concerns, then he isn't the best pick. I am sick of the media and some draftniks not having a clue with what they are talking about with the "safe pick myth." It is a myth. There is something to be said for not wanting to invest in a player with a risky personality or skill set, but if that is true, then is that player the best pick for the football team? Absolutely not. Now, some players are more risky than others and I understand that, but my perception of the NFL Draft is you need to take the best value on the board in terms of a draft pick for your football team. This encompasses everything I have discussed in my NFL Draftology. Teams will always make mistakes. We need to accept this to a certain extent. Teams do not get four to five impact players out of the draft every year, which is almost statistically impossible to do. In the end, if you have one player on the draft board and he is the "safest" pick, but not the best pick, then you have some serious explaining to do.
Posts: 92,316

01-30-2009, 06:34 PM	#3
theorangelion Starter Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: n00b, Texas Casino cash: $10004900	Now we can only reflect on the Cp era not the SP to come era. But the way the Chiefs Pick safe is the way to go.
Posts: 154

01-30-2009, 07:35 PM	#7
Mecca Hockey Town Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Kansas City, Missouri Casino cash: $-722950	That article summed it up perfectly and the 1st 2 posts are immediately talking about safe picks, I wish stupidity was something people could be banned for.
Posts: 115,380

01-30-2009, 07:50 PM	#12
Mecca Hockey Town Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Kansas City, Missouri Casino cash: $-722950	No pick is safe that's the damn point.
Posts: 115,380

01-30-2009, 07:56 PM	#15
'Hamas' Jenkins Now you've pissed me off! Join Date: Jan 2006 Casino cash: $7129572	Chiefs fans are the dumbest mother****ers in the entire NFL. Wanting to emulate a team that never did anything, constantly reacting out of fear rather than acting. __________________ "When the Know-Nothings get control, it will read 'all men are created equal, except negroes, and foreigners, and Catholics.' When it comes to this I should prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretense of loving liberty – to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure, and without the base alloy of hypocrisy.”--Abraham Lincoln
Posts: 75,083

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