Chiefs getting screwed by coin flips?

[shaneo69]

from gbnreport.com...

Oakland and Atlanta will flip for the 3rd and 4th picks. If Atlanta wins, the Falcons will pick 3rd, the Raiders 4th, while Kansas City will have the 5th pick. If Oakland wins the initial coin flip the Raiders will have the 3rd pick and Atlanta will then flip with Kansas City for the 4th and 5th picks.

Sounds simple enough so far. It occurred to us, though, that it would have been even simpler if the NFL had simply had Atlanta pick a number out of a hat, either a 3, 4, or 5. If Atlanta picks the three, they get the 3rd pick, Oakland would pick fourth and KC fifth. On the other hand, if the Falcons drew the 4, Oakland would pick third, Atlanta 4th and the Chiefs 5th. And of course if Atlanta drew the 5, Oakland would pick 3rd, Kansas City 4th and the Falcons 5th. In the end, though, we figured what does it matter, the odds of each team getting one of the three respective picks would be the same no matter which method was used.

Being a semi-retired statistician with an incurious mind, though, we worked the actual odds just to be sure. And here’s the kicker: they aren’t the same! Logic would dictate that since Atlanta has no competitive advantage over the other two teams in the deal, the Falcons odds of getting each of the three picks should be one in three or 33%. With the double flip method, though, the Falcons odds of getting the 3rd pick are actually 50%, while their odds of getting the 4th or 5th picks are each 25%. At the same time, Oakland’s odds of getting the third pick are 66% using the number out of the hat method, which again makes sense as they have the tie-breaker over one of the other teams in the mix (Kansas City), but only 50% using the double coin flips. Meanwhile, Kansas City has only a 25% chance of getting the 4th pick, and by extension a 75% of getting the 5th pick, using the NFL’s announced method, whereas the Chiefs would have a 33% of getting the 4th pick with the number in the hat scenario.

[Simplex3]

Surprise!

Or not.

[007]

Why do you torture yourself so?

[Deberg_1990]

Just another case of "The Man" holding the Chiefs down.

[FAX]

Well, this just sucks.

How is Carl going to explain this one?

FAX

[OnTheWarpath15]

I can honestly give a shit.

We're just gonna **** up and trade down anyway.

[kcchiefsus]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

I can honestly give a shit.

We're just gonna **** up and trade down anyway.

What would be wrong with trading down? I would most definitely be OK with an extra 1st day pick.

[FAX]

Originally Posted by kcchiefsus

What would be wrong with trading down? ...

Nothing at all, unless we have to flip a coin to do it.

We ought to check with Mr. cdcox on that.

FAX

[OnTheWarpath15]

Originally Posted by kcchiefsus

What would be wrong with trading down? I would most definitely be OK with an extra 1st day pick.

Normally, I'd agree, and MAY change my stance if a lot of talented Juniors declare.

But this is a sad draft class. There are 5-7 studs and a huge drop off after that, at least at the positions we need the most. (OL, DT, LB, CB)

As it stands, I'd rather have the stud than 2 guys that are going to go a full round ahead of where they'd normally go in a decent class.

[FAX]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Normally, I'd agree, and MAY change my stance if a lot of talented Juniors declare.

But this is a sad draft class. There are 5-7 studs and a huge drop off after that, at least at the positions we need the most. (OL, DT, LB, CB)

As it stands, I'd rather have the stud than 2 guys that are going to go a full round a head of where they'd normally go in a decent class.

We're in total agreement on that, Mr. OnTheWarpath58.

FAX

[BigRock]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Normally, I'd agree, and MAY change my stance if a lot of talented Juniors declare.

But this is a sad draft class. There are 5-7 studs and a huge drop off after that, at least at the positions we need the most. (OL, DT, LB, CB)

As it stands, I'd rather have the stud than 2 guys that are going to go a full round a head of where they'd normally go in a decent class.

Depending on how far we trade down, or how badly someone wants to move up, we could always get someone's 1st rounder next year. We have plenty of 2008 picks as it is. And if it is a weak class, would we really be looking to stockpile more?

I know that probably doesn't excite anyone now, but an extra pick first-round pick can open up a lot of possibilities. If we could trade down to the mid-teens, get a first-rounder in 2009, and still get a Michael Oher or somebody, I'd consider that a good day at the office.

[BigRedChief]

Originally Posted by OnTheWarpath58

Normally, I'd agree, and MAY change my stance if a lot of talented Juniors declare.

But this is a sad draft class. There are 5-7 studs and a huge drop off after that, at least at the positions we need the most. (OL, DT, LB, CB)

As it stands, I'd rather have the stud than 2 guys that are going to go a full round ahead of where they'd normally go in a decent class.

I'd agree with ya. But I don't think the trade down scenerio is all that likely. Here's why..........

Why does anyone trade up? Because their guy will be gone correct?

I see a scenerio where the QB's are the only top studs left when we pick at #5. Everyone in the NFL assumes we are not taking a QB so why trade up to get the QB if he's not going off the board?

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by shaneo69

using the NFL’s announced method

Geez, will this never end?

They followed the method that has been in place for years. Following the long established procedure, I laid out the scenario during the game and annonced the exact sequence of coin flips the second the ball sailed through the up rights to give the Jets the victory.

[FAX]

I understand, Mr. cdcox. Completely.

But what happens if we call heads?

FAX

[cdcox]

Originally Posted by FAX

I understand, Mr. cdcox. Completely.

But what happens if we call heads?

FAX

I'm partial to tails, especially if they use one of the 50-state quarters. So far I have 45 of them (every one through 2007) coming from the Philadelphia mint and 41 of them coming from the Denver mint. I see at least seven or eight P quaters for ever D. In fact I've picked up many of my D quaters on trips to KC. Coins don't mix very fast in our economy.