A question about the NFL draft value chart.

**Rain Man** · 02-20-2009, 07:30 PM

The draft value chart assigns points to each draft pick. The #3 pick is worth 2,200, the #35 pick is worth 560, and so on. Supposedly, teams use this chart to determine if they're getting a fair value on trades involving draft picks.

In theory, this makes a lot of sense.

However, I think there's a problem with it. The NFL draft is a very variable process. Every year, there's a different group of players, and the best ones play different positions and have different levels of skill.

For example, I keep hearing that this draft class is pretty mediocre on high-value positions, and a lot of the best players are at positions that shouldn't be taken with high picks.

This raises the question: If "the chart" says our pick is worth 2,200 points, (and "the chart" says that this is the equivalent of getting the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks of the team drafting #8), would you take less than that value for the pick? So for example if the team drafting #11 offered their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks at a stated value of 1,860 points, would you say no because that's too low according to the chart, or would you consider it?

My theory is that the draft chart measures an average draft class, and at the tippy-top of the chart there can be wide variations. Therefore, there's an inefficiency in the system that can be exploited. In a draft with several great prospects, the #6 pick should be worth more than it is in a draft with only four great prospects.

What do you think?

Mecca · 02-20-2009, 07:31 PM

So basically the draft chart is dumb...ok Chiefzilla.

Atleast yours makes more sense than his argument that the picks at the top are "to high valued"

**Rain Man** · 02-20-2009, 07:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mecca

So basically the draft chart is dumb...ok Chiefzilla.

Atleast yours makes more sense than his argument that the picks at the top are "to high valued"

I'm not saying it's dumb. What I'm saying is that if a draft class shows up where there are 10 players all so closely ranked that any of them could go #1 or #10, would you take less than the stated point-chart values to trade from the #2 spot to the #9 spot? I would.

(This assumes no positional oddities or issues yadda yadda yadda.)

'Hamas' Jenkins · 02-20-2009, 07:37 PM

There will be malleability within the chart relative of the position desired as well, but no team who is trading with you is going to give up any more than it has to, nor will you ask for any less and get it just based upon a given year's prospects. It's not completely concrete, no trade will be an exact match on the chart, but they will generally be within 5% +/-

tmax63 · 02-22-2009, 07:56 PM

I just see it as something of a framework/guideline. It gives both sides a starting point from which to work. Variations draft to draft, depth of draft and team needs on both sides will factor in to this as well.

View Poll Results: Should you always trade for equivalent value on the draft chart?
Yes. It's a proven concept and draft classes are generally consistent in talent.	2	16.67%
No. The draft chart is just a general guideline and values vary from year to year.	8	66.67%
I have Scott handle these types of things.	2	16.67%
Obama instituted a draft?	0	0%
Voters: 12. You may not vote on this poll

02-20-2009, 07:30 PM	Topic Starter
Rain Man Seize life. Be an ermine. Join Date: Jul 2001 Location: My house Casino cash: $-712449 VARSITY	A question about the NFL draft value chart. The draft value chart assigns points to each draft pick. The #3 pick is worth 2,200, the #35 pick is worth 560, and so on. Supposedly, teams use this chart to determine if they're getting a fair value on trades involving draft picks. In theory, this makes a lot of sense. However, I think there's a problem with it. The NFL draft is a very variable process. Every year, there's a different group of players, and the best ones play different positions and have different levels of skill. For example, I keep hearing that this draft class is pretty mediocre on high-value positions, and a lot of the best players are at positions that shouldn't be taken with high picks. This raises the question: If "the chart" says our pick is worth 2,200 points, (and "the chart" says that this is the equivalent of getting the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks of the team drafting #8), would you take less than that value for the pick? So for example if the team drafting #11 offered their 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks at a stated value of 1,860 points, would you say no because that's too low according to the chart, or would you consider it? My theory is that the draft chart measures an average draft class, and at the tippy-top of the chart there can be wide variations. Therefore, there's an inefficiency in the system that can be exploited. In a draft with several great prospects, the #6 pick should be worth more than it is in a draft with only four great prospects. What do you think?
Posts: 145,541

02-20-2009, 07:37 PM	#4
'Hamas' Jenkins Now you've pissed me off! Join Date: Jan 2006 Casino cash: $7129572	There will be malleability within the chart relative of the position desired as well, but no team who is trading with you is going to give up any more than it has to, nor will you ask for any less and get it just based upon a given year's prospects. It's not completely concrete, no trade will be an exact match on the chart, but they will generally be within 5% +/- __________________ "When the Know-Nothings get control, it will read 'all men are created equal, except negroes, and foreigners, and Catholics.' When it comes to this I should prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretense of loving liberty – to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure, and without the base alloy of hypocrisy.”--Abraham Lincoln
Posts: 75,083

02-22-2009, 07:56 PM	#5
tmax63 Veteran Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: Colorado Casino cash: $453600	I just see it as something of a framework/guideline. It gives both sides a starting point from which to work. Variations draft to draft, depth of draft and team needs on both sides will factor in to this as well. __________________ An armed member of society is a citizen, an unarmed member is a subject.
Posts: 3,994

02-20-2009, 07:31 PM	#2
Mecca Hockey Town Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Kansas City, Missouri Casino cash: $-732950	So basically the draft chart is dumb...ok Chiefzilla. Atleast yours makes more sense than his argument that the picks at the top are "to high valued"
Posts: 115,382