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Old 12-02-2014, 08:04 AM   Topic Starter
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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The way I understand the playoff picture...
This Arizona game is a gravy game. It's not critical to our chances at a playoff spot, but it would really help.

Due to our losses the past two weeks, we need to get to ten wins, and we need to run up the conference win record. I've been noodling down about a dozen scenarios, and the Chiefs must beat Oakland, Pittsburgh, and San Diego to get to 8-4 in AFC play, which would make the Chiefs virtually tie-breaker proof against any AFC wild card team.

Those wins get us to 10-5, and we can honestly drop the Arizona game at that point. 11-5 gets us in, of course, but 10-6 with wins over the Dolphins and Steelers almost guarantees we're in.

The Browns are imploding, the Chargers are hitting a buzzsaw of games at the end of their season. I expect both of them to fade to 9-7 or worse (I have them both at 8-8), which puts them out of contention.

The Ravens, more than anybody, have been bolstered by slaughtering cupcakes in the NFCS. The Ravens are 7-5 with a game in Miami this week that will likely be their version of KC-Pittsburgh, and three winnable games to close out the season. That's probably a 10-6 record. A 10-6 Chiefs team has a very easy tie-breaker with them because our conference record will have trounced theirs.

The most obvious threats here are the Bengals, the Dolphins, and the Steelers. Beating the Steelers mean we have any tie-breaker you want over two of those teams. And I think the Bengals are waltzing to the AFCN title.

This is a bit jumbled, but there's virtually no world where we lose to Oakland, Pittsburgh, and/or San Diego and survive to the postseason. But we can lose against the Cards and still comfortably get there by winning all three.
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Old 12-02-2014, 08:07 AM   #2
ptlyon ptlyon is offline
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Shut up. It's over.
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Old 12-02-2014, 08:13 AM   #3
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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Originally Posted by ptlyon View Post
Shut up. It's over.
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Originally Posted by ping2000 View Post
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Originally Posted by Simply Red View Post
It is over. It would have been much more productive to engage a food thread any time post Denver @ KC game.

Nuts might be a good one, I bought these in-shell hickory smoked peanuts that are incredible.
M'alright. Mathematically we're very much alive.

We've got four winnable games, albeit against very tough competition, that should allow us a very real shot at winning into the postseason. Capping off a sweep of the Chargers would be icing on the cake.

How I project the rest of the season working out:

1. Pats, Donks, Colts get slots 1-3, in order.

2. Here's how the top wild card contenders fare:

Dolphins (7-5):
vs. Baltimore W
@ NE L
vs. Vikings W
vs. Jets W
Dolphins end up 10-6.

Browns (7-5):
vs. Colts L
vs. Bengals L
@ Panthers W
@ Ravens L
Browns end up 8-8.

Steelers (7-5):
@ Cincy L
@ Falcons W
vs. Chiefs L
vs. Bengals W
Steelers end up 9-7.

Ravens (6-4):
@ Dolphins L
vs. Jags W
@ Texans W
vs. Browns W
Ravens end up 10-6.

Bengals (8-3-1):
vs. Steelers W
@ Browns W
vs. Broncos L
@ Steelers L
Bengals end up 10-5-1.

Chiefs (7-4):
@ Arizona L
vs. Oakland W
@ Steelers W
vs. Chargers W
Chiefs end up 10-6.

Chargers (7-4):
vs. Patriots L
vs. Broncos L
@ 49ers L
@ Chiefs L
Chargers end up 7-9.

3. Bengals win the #4 slot.

4. As for the remaining three 10-6 teams vying for the #5 and #6 slot:

Dolphins 10-6
Ravens 10-6
Chiefs 10-6

(a.) If the Dolphins lose to the Ravens this week, they would have lost to both the Ravens and the Chiefs, and therefore would lose this tiebreaker automatically. The Chiefs have the better projected conference record than the Ravens, 8-4 to 6-6.

(b.) If the Dolphins win, as I expect they will, than it will be a three-way tiebreaker, with the two best AFC records getting the remaining playoff spots.

The next tie-breaker is AFC conference record:
Dolphins: 8-4
Chiefs: 8-4
Ravens: 6-6
The Dolphins and Chiefs get the remaining slots. The Chiefs would actually be the #5 team, and probably visit Cincinnati.
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Old 12-02-2014, 08:07 AM   #4
Prison Bitch Prison Bitch is offline
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So we have to win 3/4. Then beat Luck, Manning and Brady in succession to make a SB?

Hate to burst your bubble but the season ended Sun night
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Old 12-02-2014, 08:09 AM   #5
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It is over. It would have been much more productive to engage a food thread any time post Denver @ KC game.

Nuts might be a good one, I bought these in-shell hickory smoked peanuts that are incredible.
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Old 12-02-2014, 08:14 AM   #6
BucEyedPea BucEyedPea is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Simply Red View Post
It is over. It would have been much more productive to engage a food thread any time post Denver @ KC game.

I could go for that.

Quote:
Nuts might be a good one, I bought these in-shell hickory smoked peanuts that are incredible.
Hazelnuts roasted—to die for. Made a hazelnut chocolate cake this Thanksgving for a B-Day cake. I make hazelnut Madeleines each Christmas. Delicious!
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Old 12-02-2014, 09:55 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by Prison Bitch View Post
So we have to win 3/4. Then beat Luck, Manning and Brady in succession to make a SB?

Hate to burst your bubble but the season ended Sun night
it ended the moment Dorsey thought it was a good idea to go into the season with a depleted O-Line and receiving corps
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Mahomes could throw for 5,000 yards and 40 TDs a season and we will still win 12 games and lose on the first round. Why? Because Chiefs.
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Old 12-02-2014, 08:08 AM   #8
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Old 12-02-2014, 08:15 AM   #9
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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It should be noted that if the Chiefs lose to the Steelers, they'll probably lose on tie-breakers EVEN if they end up winning the other three games.

Hell, probably losing to either the Chargers or Oakland does the same.
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Old 12-02-2014, 08:20 AM   #10
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Old 12-02-2014, 08:22 AM   #11
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I said in another thread. Even though we are currently in th 6th seed. It will go to someone in the afcn in the end. Chiefs blew it with the Oakland loss. Which shows they are not playoff ready and the lines seem to get softer each week.
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Old 12-02-2014, 08:33 AM   #12
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I said in another thread. Even though we are currently in th 6th seed. It will go to someone in the afcn in the end. Chiefs blew it with the Oakland loss. Which shows they are not playoff ready and the lines seem to get softer each week.
I thought Miami's win last night knocked us out of 'current consideration' - no...?
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Old 12-02-2014, 08:22 AM   #13
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we definitely need to get in so we can lose our token playoff game
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Old 12-02-2014, 08:27 AM   #14
Direckshun Direckshun is offline
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we definitely need to get in so we can lose our token playoff game
There's no way to know. How many times have the Chiefs zigged this year when you could have SWORE they were about to zag.

Preseason: Looked like a 7-9 team.

After Week 1: Looked like a 3-13 team.

After Week 6: Looked like a 9-7 team.

After week 11: Looked like a 12-4 team.

After week 13: Look like a 8-8 team.

There's just no telling. Get into the playoffs, get hot, maybe even get a favorable first round matchup (we can take Dalton), and you never know.
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Old 12-02-2014, 05:00 PM   #15
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we definitely need to get in so we can lose our token playoff game
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