Deebo wants $25m/year. Is the WR market broken?

[Direckshun]

I read this and was talking about this with a friend yesterday.

I entered this offseason finding a way to stomach $20m/year for Tyreek. When the rumblings started to suggest $25m/year, I could barely contain myself. The strain that will put on our cap -- or any team's cap -- to pay that much for a player who can't even make his own plays without a QB getting the ball to him. That is hard to fathom.

$30m/year, though? There's no team with a competent QB in the league that will be able to pay that.

With Deebo set to ask for 25/year, that does suggest that the league could be heading to a place where elite WRs and QBs simply cannot be on the same team anymore. That your best hope is for a WR or a QB who immediately becomes elite on their rookie contract, or in the case of the stupid Bengals, one of each.

Because with Derek Carr going $40m/year, that means you're looking at $60-80m a year being tied up in two players.

How do we see this playing out over the next five years? Is there a WR bubble that's about to burst?

[Sannyasi]

I don't know enough about Deemo Samuel to know if he is worth it but Hill is 100% with his deal.

He's a ridiculous talent. He gets double teamed every play and still is productive as hell.

He turned Alex Smith into a deep passer. He is the kind of player who completely transforms an offense.

It just so happens for us that we didn't need Hill. Our offense will be fine with our O-line, Mahomes and Kelce. But players who are ridiculously ****ing talented as Hill is should make a **** ton of money. If Deebo is a Hill-like player, then 25 mil isn't that crazy.

[CapsLockKey]

Only way I'd tie up that much percent of cap space in WR is if they are a generational unicorn. A Moss, TO or Megatron early in their prime type unicorn who are uncoverable regardless of who is throwing them the ball. Hill is in that realm and maybe has a couple years left of prime game changer in him but I think his best days may be behind him.

[A Salt Weapon]

Originally Posted by Hoover

The modern NFL is about drafting well, keeping rosters young and cheap. Pay a few vets big contracts. Perhaps the NFL needs to create a new rule that allows teams to have 1 offensive player and 1 defensive player who is not subject to the cap. The only catch is that they have to be fully guaranteed contracts or something.

It would be exploited though. Best QB in the league gets a contract like 100M the first year then league min the next 9 years. Best WR gets 100M year 2 and league min each other 9 years. Best TE gets 100M year 3 and league min the other nine. You’d have the 10 best players on OFF and DEF for a decade straight.

[oldman]

I'm all for guys making money, but there has to be some sanity in salaries. You can argue that the cap will keep going up, but it's not a bottomless well.

Wasn't there some idea floated a year or 2 ago about either having the QB salary not go against the cap or it could only amount to a certain percent?

[notorious]

Deebo just wiped all of his social media clean of San Fran stuff.

Fans are sending him death threats.

Shits getting real.

[MarkDavis'Haircut]

Originally Posted by AdolfOliverBush

I'm sure the NFLPA would never allow it, but I'm curious how a positional salary cap might work, or at least a separate cap number for QBs.

That would make the difference between teams with great QBs and teams without great QBs basically impossible to overcome.

Unless they allowed tougher defensive play.

As it stands now, the cap cost for the great QBs allows for some parity.

[Tribal Warfare]

Originally Posted by notorious

Fans are sending him death threats.

Shits getting real.

That's ****ed up

[ChiTown]

Originally Posted by notorious

Deebo just wiped all of his social media clean of San Fran stuff.

Fans are sending him death threats.

Shits getting real.

Welp, we just lost our standing as the “Most Toxic Fan Base in the NFL”

[Chris Meck]

Yep. It's broken.

Draft your guys, develop them, and then let someone else pay them, take the comp picks. Rinse and repeat.

[notorious]

Originally Posted by ChiTown

Welp, we just lost our standing as the “Most Toxic Fan Base in the NFL”

We can dig down and take what is rightfully ours.

[DRM08]

Originally Posted by ChiefAshhole1056

I had a similar convo to this the other day with some buddies as well. I phrased it as “is WR becoming a tier-1 contract position like Edge, Lt, and QB?”. With the salary cap there simply just isn’t enough room to take on many “top market deals” at many positions and is it worth it to pay an elite WR like you would an elite pass rusher/protector?

The best way I think we put it was is Jamar Chase more valuable than TJ Watt? Because as it’s developing it looks like Chase will be getting about $30 mil a year by the time he gets his next contract. Now also factor in that Burrow is likely going to cost about $45 mil a year at least as well and it seems like we’re just going to be exposed to a different roster structure where Cincy is going to build around the passing game (assuming they re-sign Higgins as well, but who knows how much he’ll cost).

The closest I can recall to that situation was the Peyton Colts in their prime when both Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne had top of the market salaries (granted both of them were around $10 mil each). I think the WR market in general is breaking and the teams that pay up are going to run into roster issues in the near future. Just too difficult to field a full roster of quality players when a single WR has that big of a piece of the pie.

Burrow will be around $50M and Chase will be around $35M. Hopefully it undermines the rest of the team.

[Bl00dyBizkitz]

Originally Posted by ThyKingdomCome15

Not going to lie, I would have paid Tyreek. With that said I love the precedent Andy and Brett have set. We're building a team with a much smarter, methodical approach. We will also win under this standard. When the league witnesses this incarnation unfold they'll be green with envy, barring Bill Belichick and NE. They did it for years this way, along with cheating.

Chiefs Kingdom will be doing cart wheels. Remember we still have the best QB and a top 5 OL, really solid RB core, and lots of speed. We can win with that but in a different way. That's what we're doing.

I dunno if its been mentioned because of how much we hate the Patriots, but didn't they constantly trade offensive stars about a year or two before they needed to be paid? They never signed that expensive vet contract or the BIG extension that would bog the team down, so they would have multiple 2-3 year windows hunting for championships, while most teams only have a single 4-5 year window.

If thats the case, then the Chiefs are stealing that strategy from the Pats and putting all their faith in Mahomes.

[Eleazar]

Originally Posted by Sannyasi

I don't know enough about Deemo Samuel to know if he is worth it but Hill is 100% with his deal.

He's a ridiculous talent. He gets double teamed every play and still is productive as hell.

He turned Alex Smith into a deep passer. He is the kind of player who completely transforms an offense.

It just so happens for us that we didn't need Hill. Our offense will be fine with our O-line, Mahomes and Kelce. But players who are ridiculously ****ing talented as Hill is should make a **** ton of money. If Deebo is a Hill-like player, then 25 mil isn't that crazy.

Devo Samuels had 400 more yards and 5 more TDs than Tyreek Hill did last year, and he's 2 years younger. Just one year, but also the first year he was fully utilized

[emaw1979]

I don't know enough about Debo Samuel other than he runs Jet Sweeps a lot. How is he at the other things? Isn't he just a better and original version of Mecole Hardman of the end of last year?

[stevegroganfan]

Originally Posted by Bl00dyBizkitz

I dunno if its been mentioned because of how much we hate the Patriots, but didn't they constantly trade offensive stars about a year or two before they needed to be paid? They never signed that expensive vet contract or the BIG extension that would bog the team down, so they would have multiple 2-3 year windows hunting for championships, while most teams only have a single 4-5 year window.

If thats the case, then the Chiefs are stealing that strategy from the Pats and putting all their faith in Mahomes.

Brandin Cooks and Deon Branch are two examples of Patriots receivers being traded since Belichick didn't want to have them on expensive contracts long term.

Even Rob Gronkowski was dealt to Detroit for picks but the trade stopped because Gronkowski said he would retire. The Patriots did sign Gronkowski to one extension after his rookie deal and it was a fairly high priced extension but still sane since the tight end market wasn't crazy high.

Also in part for financial/cap reasons, the Patriots got rid of star players on defense as well such as Richard Seymour and Chandler Jones.

The other strategy the Patriots deployed on several ocassions is trading away draft picks for future picks. Like a 2nd rounder this year for a first the following year.

As much as I think of Tyreek Hill as an underrated player nationally, Chiefs made a smart move trading him. It gives them lots of picks and cap space. It also frees up targets/catches so Mahomes can recruit veteran receivers to play for KC at a discount.

Chiefs had a top 5ish offensive line last year, a consensus elite tight end who is returning and now they have several good but not great receivers. Kelce may slow down but the other players may be good for longer.

Where the faith is being put is in the Chiefs GM not screwing up. If he just drafts average this year, Chiefs will stay contenders with just average injury luck.