Discount Kiper New Year Mock 2023

[kccrow]

Discount Kiper is back, shaggy hair and all. Let's roll.

Chiefs Offseason
The focus here is to lock down some shaky offensive line components and then get better at rushing the passer. I got the Chiefs doing just that...

Release Frank Clark ($19.6m savings) - Frank is garbage. The trash gets taken out.

Internal Signings:
OT Orlando Brown, Jr.: 6-yr, $139.5m deal that includes a $31.25m signing bonus, $65.25m guaranteed at signing, salary guarantees that trigger April 1 of years 4 and 5 and roster bonuses that trigger on the 5th day of the league year in years 4 and 5 (cap hits of 15.5, 18.5, 24.0, 27.0, 26.0, 28.5).
Look, I don't like Brown that much for this offense but he stays healthy and you can work with him if you don't have total crap on the right side too. I think the Chiefs are going to re-work last year's deal and keep him around. Not what I'd do, but call it a hunch.
DT Chris Jones: 3-yr, $80.5m extension that includes a $24.0m signing bonus, $41.0m guaranteed at signing and salary guarantees the last two years that trigger on the 5th day of the league year that could fully guarantee the contract, a conversion of 16.0m of 2023 salary to additional signing bonus with a full gurantee of the remaining 3.5m (cap hits of 21.0, 27.5, 28.5, and 30.5)
Chris Jones is the nuts and bolts of this defense. While the time is now to trade him, it's just too hard to get rid of the one guy that makes your pass rush respectable. Lock him up for the rest of his career and lets go.
CB L'Jarius Sneed: 3-yr, $42.0m extension that includes a $12.0m signing bonus and $19.5m in total guarantees (cap hits of 4.17, 11.0, 13.0, 15.0)
Sneed is the most important DB the Chiefs have as he's essentially taken over the role that Tyrann Mathieu had as the versatile playmaker functioning from the slot. Sneed has a ton of value and I see KC giving him a solid contract ala Mathieu in order to maintain that component long-term.
QB Patrick Mahomes: restructure $34.95m roster bonus to signing bonus
P Tommy Townsend: 4-yr $12.0m deal that includes a $2.0m signing bonus and $3.5m guaranteed at signing. (cap hits of 2.0, 2.5, 3.5, 4.0)
DT Tershawn Wharton: RFA ROFR tender 1-yr $2.63m
OG Nick Allegretti : 1-yr, $1.08m deal
DT Khalen Saunders: 1-yr, $1.08m deal
DB Deon Bush: 1-yr, $1.17m deal
FB Michael Burton: 1-yr, $1.17m deal
OT Prince Tega Wanogho: RFA ROFR tender 1-yr $2.63m
TE Jody Fortson: ERFA tag 1-yr $870k
QB Shane Buechele: ERFA tag 1-yr $870k

Free Agent Additions:
WR Darius Slayton (NYG age 26, 6'1" 190) to 3-yr $30.0m deal that includes a $6.0m signing bonus and $8.6m fully guaranteed (cap hits of 4.9, 11.0, 14.0)
Every time that Slayton has received playing time he's produced like at least a very good #2 yet he always ends up near the bottom of the depth chart to start the season in NY. It's time for him to find greener pastures and become the #1 WR he's capable of being.
OT Jawaan Taylor (JAX age 26, 6'5" 312) to 5-yr $87.0m deal that includes a $17.5m signing bonus, $30.5m guaranteed at signing, and potential guarantees of $37.5m (cap hits of 6.0, 15.0, 21.0, 22.0, 23.0)
Taylor has become one of the league's better RTs in the final year of his contract, after being a bit hit-and-miss his first few years. I think you bank on his long-term potential to become one of the league's best. Taylor has also been a pillar of health, which is a great thing for the Chiefs who need to lock up at least one tackle spot this offseason.
DE Clelin Ferrell (LV age 25, 6'5" 260) to 2-yr $7.0m deal that includes a 1.0m signing bonus and guaranteed base salary in 2023 (cap hits of 2.5, 4.5)
Ferrell wasn't terrible his rookie year but he wasn't given much of a chance after that. Ferrell was an excellent college player so I have a hard time believing he's as bad as the Raiders have made him and think he can be re-worked.
DE Marcus Davenport (NO age 26, 6'6" 264) to 2-yr $15.0m deal that includes a 5.0m signing bonus and guaranteed base salary in 2023 (cap hits of 6.0, 9.0)
Davenport has flashed game-changing ability but never seems to put it all together. Injuries haven't helped his cause either. He needs a change of scenery. I think Davenport could be a late bloomer as a potential 8-10 sack guy.
RB D'Ernest Johnson (CLE age 27, 5'10" 208) to a 1-yr $1.5m deal
Johnson has done some damage when given a shot but he's been buried behind two very good RBs in Cleveland. I have KC snagging a good rotational back on the cheap once again.
DT Javon Hargrave (PHI age 29, 6'1" 309) to a 3-yr $54.5m deal that includes a $16.5m signing bonus and $37.5m in total guarantees (cap hits of 15.5, 17.5, 21.5)
My big splurge on the defensive line goes to Hargrave who has shown he can be a difference-maker in all facets but unleashed a big pass rush this season with 11 sacks. Hargrave and Jones will provide an absurd interior pass-rush presence to help the younger ends out.

Chiefs Let Walk:
OT Andrew Wylie, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, FS Juan Thornhill, DE Carlos Dunlap, DT Brandon Williams, DT Derrick Nnadi, WR Justin Watson, WR Mecole Hardman, TE Blake Bell, RB Ronald Jones II, , DT Taylor Stallworth, RB Jerick McKinnon, LB Darius Harris, DB Chris Lammons, QB Chad Henne

2023 Draft

1. DE Felix Anudike-Uzomah, Kansas State (6'3" 255)
Even though I have the Chiefs picking up two former 1st round picks in free agency, those are more of hope and poke signings that you feel could work out. The Chiefs will still need to double-down on their bets, so I have them going with the home-grown athletic freak in Anudike-Uzomah. Felix can do one thing really well and that's get after the passer with speed and fury off the edge. He might not be a base end right away but he's going to be a terror when he can just pin his ears back and go.

Spoiler!

2. DT DeWayne Carter, Duke (6'3" 298)
Carter has developed into my crush in this draft on the defensive line. He's a game-wrecker on the interior with outstanding get-off, quickness, and closing speed to the QB. With Jones, Hargrave, Carter, and Wharton, the Chiefs would feature constant interior disruption.

Spoiler!

3. WR Tyler Scott, Cincinnati (5'10" 171)
I featured adding Slayton in FA, who runs a 4.39, to add even more speed to a good group. Now I have them adding another slot guy in Scott that can take the doors off as well. The Chiefs will be 6-deep in 4.4 or better speed. Chef's kiss.

Spoiler!

4. (f/MIA) LB Payton Wilson, NC State (6'4" 230)
I like to pretend I'm pretty good at identifying talent at LB and I really like Wilson. I might have him higher if it weren't for some injury concerns and Wilson is definitely unpolished, but he has athleticism in spades with the range to make plays anywhere on the field. I see him in the same light is Overshown from Texas but I think you can get Wilson at a discount. He's adequate in coverage and solid as a blitz option off the edge. He needs to get bigger, stronger, and develop more understanding of the game but you can see the tools. He'd have a year to marinate behind Willie Gay and eventually take over there.

Spoiler!

4. Payne Durham, TE, Purdue (6'5" 255)
Durham has good height and size with solid speed for a TE. He knows how to get open in the intermediate zone and has soft hands, which is what you really want from a TE. He was Aidan O'Connell's go-to guy when faced with pressure.

Spoiler!

5. DB Avery Young, Rutgers (6'0" 205)
I think the Chiefs will look to add another safety on day 3 of the draft to help fill out the roster and Avery Young makes a lot of sense as one of those versatile guys Spags likes. Young has played CB, deep safety, in the box, and in the slot. He's been stellar as a slot defender similar to the role Sneed plays. With no viable replacement for Sneed if he went down, I think that's the skill set they'll look for.
6. OT Isaac Moore, Temple (6'6" 308)
After releasing Christian on waivers (subsequently losing him to Miami), he won't be back. That leaves KC dangerously thin for quality reserve tackles. I have them RFA tendering Tega Wanogho but they need a long-term developmental guy in the pipeline. I like Moore's athleticism but he's a bit raw coming from Temple. I think you can coach this kid up to be a quality reserve, and maybe more.
7. (f/ATL) DT Jerrod Clark, Coastal Carolina (6'4" 340)
With Isaiah Likely and Jeffery Gunter being drafted last year and the former playing well for the Ravens, there will no doubt be more eyes on the Coastal program. Clark was invited to the Senior Bowl, so we'll have to see how that impacts his stock. Right now I have him as a late developmental guy ala Gunter. Clark is a space-eater and is capable of making a significant push in the middle but he's inconsistent. There's a legit chance this kid could be coached into a monster, especially if he stays dedicated to the weight room.
7. QB Tim DeMorat, Fordham (6'4" 220)
Coming from a small school like Fordham doesn't get you many looks but DeMorat lit up the Patriot League, including over 4800 yards and 56 TDs this year, for a couple of seasons running so he's most definitely on the radar. He's got quality size with good movement skills and puts proper touch on passes to all levels of the field.

Spoiler!

7. (Comp) RB Xazavian Valladay, Arizona State (6'0" 199)
Valladay isn't a speed merchant as his size would seem to indicate but he knows how to find open lanes and make the most of them. I like his receiving and blocking skills a lot and feel like he could step into the role that McKinnon currently occupies and thrive.

Spoiler!

7. (Comp) OT Dylan Wonnum, South Carolina (6'5" 308)
Wonnum is a very solid blocker in all facets with good but not great athleticism. He's unlikely to fit on the outside in the NFL but he projects nicely as a guard and has some power in the run game. A 2021 back injury that required surgery is probably going to push him down or off boards so despite 4th round talent I think he falls.
7. (Comp) WR Nikko Remigio, Fresno State (5'10" 185)
Remigio transferred from Cal and played at Fresno this year but not much changed in terms of his dynamic ability on the field. He was once again used as a slot receiver where he could use his quickness. He saw a significant uptick in receptions (38 to 74) and finished with 852 yards and 6 TDs. His return game, however, is the reason to draft this kid (3rd in the NCAA in combined return yards) as he's been productive there at both stops. KC definitely needs someone to rely on as a return man, so go get one that did it well in college on the cheap.

Spoiler!

QB: P. Mahomes II, S. Buechele, T. DeMorat
RB: I. Pacheco, C. Edwards-Helaire, D. Johnson, X. Valladay
FB: M. Burton
TE: T. Kelce, N. Gray, P. Durham, J. Fortson
WR: D. Slayton, M. Valdes-Scantling, K. Toney, S. Moore, T. Scott, N. Remigio
OT: O. Brown Jr, J. Taylor, L. Niang, P. Tega Wanogho, I. Moore
IL: J. Thuney, C. Humphrey, T. Smith, N. Allegretti, D. Kinnard, D. Wonnum

ED: G. Karlaftis, F. Anudike-Uzomah, M. Davenport, C. Ferrell, M. Danna, M. Herring, J. Kaindoh
DT: C. Jones, J. Hargrave, D. Carter, T. Wharton, K. Saunders, J. Clark
LB: N. Bolton, W. Gay, L. Chenal, P. Wilson, J. Cochrane
CB: T. McDuffie, J. Watson, L. Sneed, J. Williams, N. Johnson
DB: J. Reid, B. Cook, D. Bush, A. Young

[JPH83]

Love Davenport and Hargrave, that would be a helluva move. Less fussed on the rest of FA, probably wouldn't go for Ferrell or Slayton but don't hate them. Taylor's pass-protection would be an uptick so again wouldn't hate it, but I might look elsewhere. Probably not who i'd go for in the draft but I do like Felix a lot.

[kccrow]

I was a little off on the contract lol. 4 for 80 with 60 guaranteed is a whole lot more than 5 for 87 with 30 guaranteed.

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I was a little off on the contract lol. 4 for 80 with 60 guaranteed is a whole lot more than 5 for 87 with 30 guaranteed.

I would've been with you. Feels like a lot. If he nails rhe LT spot it's all good but it's a big IF at that money.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by JPH83

I would've been with you. Feels like a lot. If he nails rhe LT spot it's all good but it's a big IF at that money.

I pretty much was spot on for what McGlinchy is going to get from the Broncos to play RT so I don't feel too much a schmuck on where I was trying to land a good RT.

I'm trying to guesstimate that 4/80 deal with cap hits. I feel like them stating 60m guaranteed will be a guarantee for injury and the full guarantee will be more like 45m. Not sure though.

I was looking at maybe a 30m signing bonus with guaranteed salaries of 5 and 10m the 1st 2 years then 15m guaranteed for injury in year 3. that puts year 4 at 18m salary and 500k workout bonuses in each year. It's alot similar to Thuney's deal if you pushed the 1st 2 seasons together into 1.

Basically, you end up with cap hits of 13, 18, 23, and 26. I think that'd be palatable if structured that way. We'll have to see.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I pretty much was spot on for what McGlinchy is going to get from the Broncos to play RT so I don't feel too much a schmuck on where I was trying to land a good RT.

I'm trying to guesstimate that 4/80 deal with cap hits. I feel like them stating 60m guaranteed will be a guarantee for injury and the full guarantee will be more like 45m. Not sure though.

I was looking at maybe a 30m signing bonus with guaranteed salaries of 5 and 10m the 1st 2 years then 15m guaranteed for injury in year 3. that puts year 4 at 18m salary and 500k workout bonuses in each year. It's alot similar to Thuney's deal if you pushed the 1st 2 seasons together into 1.

Basically, you end up with cap hits of 13, 18, 23, and 26. I think that'd be palatable if structured that way. We'll have to see.

Guess I have my answer... see here: https://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/show...&postcount=531

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by kccrow

I pretty much was spot on for what McGlinchy is going to get from the Broncos to play RT so I don't feel too much a schmuck on where I was trying to land a good RT.

I'm trying to guesstimate that 4/80 deal with cap hits. I feel like them stating 60m guaranteed will be a guarantee for injury and the full guarantee will be more like 45m. Not sure though.

I was looking at maybe a 30m signing bonus with guaranteed salaries of 5 and 10m the 1st 2 years then 15m guaranteed for injury in year 3. that puts year 4 at 18m salary and 500k workout bonuses in each year. It's alot similar to Thuney's deal if you pushed the 1st 2 seasons together into 1.

Basically, you end up with cap hits of 13, 18, 23, and 26. I think that'd be palatable if structured that way. We'll have to see.

I haven't seen the details, is there an "out" after year 3 or any such provision?

[Chris Meck]

New details appear to be more like $40m guaranteed. The $60m guarantee is basically in case of injury.

[kccrow]

Originally Posted by JPH83

I haven't seen the details, is there an "out" after year 3 or any such provision?

From what I've seen it's like this:

Total deal at 4/$80.0 with an $18.9m signing bonus, $39.48m guaranteed at signing, and $58.98m in potential guarantees.

Yr 1: $1.08m salary fully guaranteed at signing + $4.725 prorated signing bonus + $20k workout bonus = $5.825m

Yr 2: $19.5m salary fully guaranteed at signing + $4.725 prorated signing bonus + $500k workout bonus = $24.725m

Yr 3: $19.5m salary guarantees on 3rd day of new league year + $4.725 prorated signing bonus + $500k workout bonus = $24.725m

Yr 4: $19.5m salary +$4.725m prorated signing bonus + $500k workout bonus = $24.725m

That puts a potential out during the offseason prior to year 3 before that salary guarantees, which would have $9.45m in dead money and salary cap savings of $15.275m if all doesn't work out.

[MahomesMagic]

I like Slayton a lot but feel he slots into the MVS role more, rather than someone who could replace JuJu.

[JPH83]

Originally Posted by kccrow

From what I've seen it's like this:

Total deal at 4/$80.0 with an $18.9m signing bonus, $39.48m guaranteed at signing, and $58.98m in potential guarantees.

Yr 1: $1.08m salary fully guaranteed at signing + $4.725 prorated signing bonus + $20k workout bonus = $5.825m

Yr 2: $19.5m salary fully guaranteed at signing + $4.725 prorated signing bonus + $500k workout bonus = $24.725m

Yr 3: $19.5m salary guarantees on 3rd day of new league year + $4.725 prorated signing bonus + $500k workout bonus = $24.725m

Yr 4: $19.5m salary +$4.725m prorated signing bonus + $500k workout bonus = $24.725m

That puts a potential out during the offseason prior to year 3 before that salary guarantees, which would have $9.45m in dead money and salary cap savings of $15.275m if all doesn't work out.

Thanks man, interesting. Kinda reassuring

[Couch-Potato]

Originally Posted by MahomesMagic

I like Slayton a lot but feel he slots into the MVS role more, rather than someone who could replace JuJu.

That's fair, but considering how low JuJu's production had fallen and how well we resurrected him I'm guessing we could plug most half decent WRs into this offense and get similar production as we got with JuJu.