AFCW: Week 11

[Mile High Mania]

I feel like I'm having that moment in 'The Jerk' when Navin R. Johnson realizes the phone books just arrived. "It's here - It's here... Chiefs @ Broncos, sounds like your typical assholes are coming to town."

Anyway, this is what everyone around here has been clamoring about for months now, the only blemish is that it's 8-1 vs 9-0, but sole possession of first place is on the line here, and there's absolutely no lack for drama.

As I type this, the Manningverse is all lit up about the MRI that will be performed today and while it's definitely a concern, I don't see this being a case where he's missing the game. If that were to happen, then all bets are off as the 6'7 Sasquatch would see his first action... but again, that ain't happening.

Through 10 weeks, we have the following:

Chiefs 9-0
Broncos 8-1
Chargers 4-5
Raiders 3-6

Three games that matter, but really only one of any real importance as it relates to the race for the Division crown.

Raiders @ Texans
Neither team is really any good right now, but both have the potential to win this game. I'm keeping it easy here and sticking with the home team. Houston has better playmakers across the board, IMO. And, I like what Keenum has been doing. The Raiders look ... well, like the Raiders. I think it could be a fun game to watch, possibly, but the Texans win this one by 10.

Texans 27 / Raiders 17

Chargers @ Dolphins
As I type this, the Dolphins are in all kinds of disarray and preparing to battle the Bucs on MNF. So, no clue as to whether or not they're rolling into this game with a win or a loss.

Either way, I don't think it will matter as I believe the Chargers when this "battle of the coastal teams". San Diego has talent and they can put up points, but their defense is rather lame. I think this could be a good game, but the Chargers win this one after a big letdown at home vs the Broncos. Chargers fans will be teased into another few weeks of "maybe we can get a WC spot" before ultimately being disappointed after their team loses 4 of their final 6 games at the hands of Denver, KC (twice) and the Bengals.

Chargers 30 / Dolphins 17

Broncos vs Chiefs

There's not much more that can be said that isn't already being hotly debated on 72 other threads regarding this epic matchup. The Chiefs stroll into Denver with a perfect 9-0 record coming out of their bye week. The Chiefs are relatively healthy and determined to prove to everyone that they are without a doubt the best team in the land.

The Broncos slipped up against the Colts, and their defense has given up a fair amount of points and yards to every team they've played this season.

Every bit of success that Denver has is directly related to Manning - big shocker and with the ankle issues and the banged up Oline... there is cause for concern. The good news is that while the Chiefs have a nasty defense, their offense is fairly pedestrian.

I noted in another thread that if you were to compare Denver's production at home and KC's production on the road, it's not pretty for KC. In 4 road games, the Chiefs' offense has produced 5 TDs and 11 FGs, while the Defense and Special Teams has accounted for 5 other TDs. That's really good if you're a KC fan, but on the road in Denver... I think Smith and the passing game will have to become a bit more bold and productive, especially if Denver is successful in containing/limiting Charles.

I've thrown out a few random score predictions over the last week, but they all have one thing in common - I believe Denver wins this one by roughly 10 points. Yes, Manning is banged up - the Oline is banged up. The Chiefs defense is crazy nasty and will do all they can to hit Manning early, hard and often.

Can they be successful with this and can their offense put up 20+ points? I think Yes and No... it should be a fun game.

Broncos 34 / Chiefs 23

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

I love how the theme is that the Jags "kept it close". The pick 6 (which was a great leaping catch by the LB) brought them to within 2. The Broncos' defense held their offense to 12 points... and they won by 16. But, whatever. It doesn't work when I say that the Browns and Bills "kept it close" against KC, but it works here? Sure...



Yep - Romo had a lot of fun in his house...

Philly game - it was a 7 point game late into the 4th and then Succop hit a FG to make it a 10 point game. PHI still nearly had 500 yards of offense with nearly 300 rushing yards. So, they were really ripping through the competition (weeks 1 and 2) before KC man handled them, you're right. (Denver was beating PHI late in the 4th 52-13 when Foles through a TD late in garbage time)

Denver beat Eli's team and Vick's team and they'll play Houston down the road. I'm glad you've legitimized Keenum though, that's helpful.

There you go again with yards.

KC manhandled them with turnovers and sacks. They didn't give a flying **** about yards.

They'll gladly concede 500 yards of offense to Denver if it results in minimal points and Manning getting the ever living shit kicked out of him.

Can you guess why?

[Molitoth]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Yeah, but he's better than Gabbert and the bigger item there is Blackmon. Either way... debating over the fact that they scored 2 on KC thanks to a safety and 19 on Denver, 7 of it on an INT return is really silly. The game was never in doubt and they won by 16.

Keenum is better than Shaub.
Campbell is better than Weeden.

[Imon Yourside]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Yeah, but if you'll recall... Gabbert was the QB vs KC, Henne was the QB vs Denver and while he still sucks, he's better than Gabbert and they had Blackmon back in the lineup vs Denver (he didn't play vs KC). Blackmon was the difference maker for anything they did on offense.

Great point though.

Were they 6 times greater?

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by SNR

There you go again with yards.

KC manhandled them with turnovers and sacks. They didn't give a flying **** about yards.

They'll gladly concede 500 yards of offense to Denver if it results in minimal points and Manning getting the ever living shit kicked out of him.

Can you guess why?

Well, good luck with that gameplan. Yards produce points more often than not with Denver, they're not a flame out kind of offense.

All those yards typically mean a close game and one in which the defense, not the offense is expected to pull out another win.

Solid game plan though, I'm sure it's fine.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by Molitoth

Keenum is better than Shaub.
Campbell is better than Weeden.

Keenum has looked good, but it's debatable if he's better than Schaub in the long run. Campbell and Weeden are like Gabbert and Henne --- one might be better, but they both suck. The main piece was the WR. But, let's just ignore that one.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Well, good luck with that gameplan. Yards produce points more often than not with Denver, they're not a flame out kind of offense.

All those yards typically mean a close game and one in which the defense, not the offense is expected to pull out another win.

Solid game plan though, I'm sure it's fine.

What's a better way to beat Denver if you're a defense?

Limiting their offense to under 350 total yards, but only getting in a sack or two and one turnover at max?

Or giving up 500+ yards, but sacking Manning 5+ times and forcing a few picks and fumbles?

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by KILLER_CLOWN

Were they 6 times greater?

Without a doubt and that is really the best indicator as to what is going to happen on Sunday.

If we looked at the 5 common opponents that KC and Denver have played...

Jax - Den won by 16 / KC won by 26
Dal - Den won by 3 / KC won by 1
Phi - Den won by 32 / KC won by 10
NY - Den won by 18 / KC won by 24
Oak - Den won by 16 / KC won by 14

Denver had a greater margin of victory in 3 of the 5 and overall holds a 10 point advantage (cumulative) over KC. So, by that rationale, Denver should win by 10...

There you go, easy as pie.

[Imon Yourside]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Without a doubt and that is really the best indicator as to what is going to happen on Sunday.

If we looked at the 5 common opponents that KC and Denver have played...

Jax - Den won by 16 / KC won by 26
Dal - Den won by 3 / KC won by 1
Phi - Den won by 32 / KC won by 10
NY - Den won by 18 / KC won by 24
Oak - Den won by 16 / KC won by 14

Denver had a greater margin of victory in 3 of the 5 and overall holds a 10 point advantage (cumulative) over KC. So, by that rationale, Denver should win by 10...

There you go, easy as pie.

So what happens when Denver loses by 10?

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by SNR

What's a better way to beat Denver if you're a defense?

Limiting their offense to under 350 total yards, but only getting in a sack or two and one turnover at max?

Or giving up 500+ yards, but sacking Manning 5+ times and forcing a few picks and fumbles?

Guess it depends on how many scores your defense gives up... hard to rack up 500+ yards of offense and not find the endzone with this team. They are by far and away in a different league than the Eagles.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by KILLER_CLOWN

So what happens when Denver loses by 10?

I'm way past the point of having personal meltdowns when my team loses... it would sting for about an hour, esp if they just sucked.

If Denver loses on Sunday night, well it is what it is... they're still playoff bound. I don't know that winning the division and home field is all it's cracked up to be, just look at recent SB winners.

How many SB winners in the past decade were the #1 seed? (I don't know, honestly asking - but I think it's few).

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

Guess it depends on how many scores your defense gives up... hard to rack up 500+ yards of offense and not find the endzone with this team. They are by far and away in a different league than the Eagles.

What's the best way to limit those scores is the question? Which strategy is most likely to give up the fewest points to the Broncos?

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by SNR

What's the best way to limit those scores is the question? Which strategy is most likely to give up the fewest points to the Broncos?

With Denver ... it's really a crapshoot. They can put up 30+ with 350 yds or 500.

[RealSNR]

Originally Posted by Mile High Mania

With Denver ... it's really a crapshoot. They can put up 30+ with 350 yds or 500.

Okay, I'll do it for you.

The correct answer is the second option. You take the turnovers. Those are guaranteed drive-stoppers. More sacks on Manning = a greater tendency to supply turnovers, and a better shot at making them punt or resort to field goals.

You're right. A defense could only give up 150 yards to an offense all day but still allow 30+ points. Circumstances matter. But in this case, you're more likely to limit points the more drives you're able to stop.

Study harder next time, please.

[MagicHef]

Originally Posted by SNR

Okay, I'll do it for you.

The correct answer is the second option. You take the turnovers. Those are guaranteed drive-stoppers. More sacks on Manning = a greater tendency to supply turnovers, and a better shot at making them punt or resort to field goals.

You're right. A defense could only give up 150 yards to an offense all day but still allow 30+ points. Circumstances matter. But in this case, you're more likely to limit points the more drives you're able to stop.

Study harder next time, please.

Maybe you can get 4 turnovers and still give up 45 points like Washington did.

[Mile High Mania]

Originally Posted by SNR

Okay, I'll do it for you.

The correct answer is the second option. You take the turnovers. Those are guaranteed drive-stoppers. More sacks on Manning = a greater tendency to supply turnovers, and a better shot at making them punt or resort to field goals.

You're right. A defense could only give up 150 yards to an offense all day but still allow 30+ points. Circumstances matter. But in this case, you're more likely to limit points the more drives you're able to stop.

Study harder next time, please.

Funny... you don't care about yards given up in previous comments, but now it's very important.

And, no shit, Sherlock... stop drives, limit yards will result in lower points.