Late Night Bullshit, Vol. 2: the Chiefs last offseason will be the outlier.

[Direckshun]

I was reading this report by a guy who has a great nose for compensatory picks (he projects the Chiefs will get zero in 2014 -- hardly a surprise), and I started thinking about compensatory picks, and Dorsey's plans for the future.

Last offseason, we had one of the busiest front offices if not THE busiest front office in all of football.

The goal was simple: hit the salary floor (at LEAST), build a winning team ASAP, and turn over as much of the roster as was responsible while paving a path towards the future.

In doing that, the Chiefs have hamstrung themselves for this offseason. It's looking increasingly likely that the Chiefs simply can't make any free agent signings worth a damn because they're too close to the cap while having the tall task ahead of re-signing Schwartz (probably), McCluster (probably), TJax (maybe) and Abdullah (possibly).

I believe that this was, more or less, intentional work by Dorsey, however. I believe he rushed the team to the salary cap in one offseason in order to turn the roster over and pack it with talent. I believe going forward, we're going to see the Ted Thompson in John Dorsey from here on out, making 2013's offseason the outlier, and 2014 the trendsetter.

What's that trend? Pay attention to what the Pack does. Little to zero free agent acquisitions. Build the team through the draft. Re-sign talent when it's manageable -- let it go, even great talent like Greg Jennings, when it's not expedient to bring them back.

It's not sexy, but as you can see in Green Bay, it's stable as ****. The Packers regularly field one of the league's younger teams, with one of the league's highest percentage of "true" players, or players who've only played for that franchise -- because, as common wisdom suggests, having played with one team, whether it be on just one contract or multiple contracts, increases your loyalty and your solidarity in the locker room, and potentially yields better results on the field.

What that does, however, is it speeds up your ability to build through the draft -- as you score compensatory picks by the handful. 2015 alone means we're going to bring in compensatory picks for Albert (most certainly), Asamoah (probably), Abdullah (possibly), McCluster (definitely, if he doesn't sign here), TJax (ditto), and Schwartz (probably not going anywhere). And with how desperate this league is for safeties right now, even Kendrick Lewis could score a contract.

All the while, the Chiefs sit on their hands as the Pack often did/does under Ted Thompson, Dorsey's protege.

That, of course, means that 2014 will be an offseason of pain. Not only do we see talented players walk in free agency, and not only are we going to get zippo for them until next year, but we're going to also be down a pick thanks to the (now clearly necessary) acquisition of Alex Smith. (I would put money on Dorsey trading down in the 1st for more picks, but that's another conversation.)

But the strategy will begin hitting its stride in 2015, and so long as Alex Smith keeps playing at a high level, and the team has an adequate talent to eventually replace him, we could be looking at the same degree of stability here that Andy Reid and Dorsey enjoyed almost entirely during their times with their respective teams.

[Direckshun]

The piece I'm referencing:

http://mobile.philly.com/blogs/?wss=.../&id=244324361

2014 NFL compensatory pick projections
Jimmy Kempski
February 07, 2014 2:22 PM

Over the last 2 years, my friend Craig Turner has done compensatory pick projections very accurately for my former football blog. Last year, he correctly matched 24 teams with the correct round for which they received a pick. He projected an additional 5 teams to receive a pick, but missed by just one round. The 3 remaining picks he missed on were due to some gray area, which he learns from every year.

Since the NFL does not make the compensatory pick formula public, learning how to accurately project them for the entire league takes time and practice. Projecting comp picks is fairly complicated, and we'll go deeper into the methodology of projecting them later in the post. For a very basic (and slightly inaccurate) explaination of what compensatory picks are, you can check out the Wikipedia page on them here.

Compensatory picks are typically announced at the NFL owners' meetings, which occur this year from March 23-26.

First, for those of you who don't care at all about the methodology, let's just show the projections. From this point on, all the work shown was provided by Craig:

Compensatory Picks Awarded (round – team – player lost)

3 – Pittsburgh – Mike Wallace

3 – Green Bay – Greg Jennings

4 – San Francisco – Dashon Goldson

4 – Baltimore – Paul Kruger

4 – Detroit – Gosder Cherilus

4 – Baltimore – Dannell Ellerbe

5 – Houston – Connor Barwin

5 – New York Jets – LaRon Landry

5 – Baltimore – Cary Williams

5 – Atlanta – Brent Grimes

5 – Pittsburgh – Keenan Lewis

5 – New York Giants – Martellus Bennett

5 – Baltimore – Ed Reed

5 – Houston – Glover Quin

6 – New York Jets – Mike DeVito

6 – Green Bay – Erik Walden

6 – New York Jets – Dustin Keller

6 – New England – Patrick Chung

6 – Cincinnati – Manny Lawson

6 – St. Louis – Brandon Gibson

6 – New York Jets – Shonn Greene

7 – St. Louis – Bradley Fletcher

7 – Dallas – Mike Jenkins

7 – Cincinnati – Pat Sims

7 – St. Louis – Craig Dahl

7 – St. Louis – Rob Turner

7 – Dallas – Victor Butler

7 – Cincinnati – Bruce Gradkowski

7 – Tampa Bay – Geno Hayes

7 – Atlanta – Will Svitek

7 – Atlanta – Christopher Owens

7 – San Diego – Shaun Phillips

Methodology (Warning: Extreme nerdliness lies below)

I will once again give credit to AdamJT13 for his blog, adamjt13.blogspot.com, which provides the most comprehensive guide to comp pick rules available. Without his work, these predictions would not be possible. If you are unfamiliar with the basic rules that affect comp picks, they are:

1. Lost players that are cut or not tendered as RFAs and ERFAs do not qualify.

2. Lost players that were picked up during the season the year before do not qualify.

3. Signed players that are released before midseason do not qualify.

4. Players earning low minimum salaries do not qualify.

5. Each player signed cancels out one player lost.

6. The round of the pick awarded is primarily determined by the annual value of the contract signed. Signed players cancel out lost players with equal contracts, then lower contracts, before canceling out higher contracts.

It should be noted that although the NFL admits publicly the basic rules above, NFL teams do not know the exact picks that they will be awarded. They have to make assumptions based upon past history, just as I have done.

This is the first year I can report that I was able to find all contract values. Yay internet! This incorporates two new items that we learned last year; that the rights to comp picks accompany the trade of a qualifying player, and that the system under the new CBA will continue to qualify players at lower salaries than it had previously done. This year I will hopefully learn another new piece to the puzzle. If a team loses four guys with 7th round value, but signs three guys with 7th round value, for which player is the comp pick awarded? This situation happened in a few cases this year, and with no reference point to work from, I assumed that the comp pick would be awarded for the lowest lost player’s salary. An error in this assumption would have the greatest potential effect on Pittsburgh, which could jump ten places in the 7th round if the highest-salaried lost player is used.

The order of picks in each round is based upon contract amount and playing time (number of snaps). AdamJT13 came up with a playing time equation, but he did not make it public, so I am just guessing here based upon recent history. I claim no accuracy on draft order within each round.

I originally awarded 36 normal comp picks this year. This is the most picks awarded in a long time, reflecting a lot of player movement, which may be a result of teams unable to sign their own free agents due to salary cap restrictions. However, the NFL awards only 32, so a few teams at the bottom of the list (Dallas, Houston, Atlanta, and Pittsburgh) may not be receiving picks that they otherwise might have in a normal year.

Isaac Sopoaga, who was signed from San Francisco by Philadelphia, and then traded to New England, affected the San Francisco and New England calculations. This was based upon how Drew Stanton (signed by the Jets from the Lions, and then traded to the Colts) was treated last year by the NFL.

Last year Phillip Wheeler was a qualifying player on his $715,000 salary after playing more than 1,000 snaps. This year I counted all players in the $700k-$800k range that played a significant number of snaps. The players I am least certain on are Mike Pollak, who was signed for $780,000 and played 68 snaps, and Luke McCown, who was signed for $840,000 and played 16 snaps. I used Washington's signing of Keyaron Fox in 2011 as the relevant history in this instance to count McCown. Atlanta also has two players with “voidable” contracts so their predictions could turn into a complete mess; more detail is provided later.

Three teams were given the maximum number of four comp picks: New York Jets, Baltimore, and St. Louis. None of them would have had a fifth pick if it was allowed. Third round picks are fairly rare, therefore the cut-off point for them is not easily decipherable. There is a possibility Green Bay’s comp pick for losing Greg Jennings will be a 4th rounder.

Various team explainations

For the purpose of not making this exercise longer than it already is, there are no explanations for teams that did not get projected comp picks.

Atlanta

Lost: Grimes ($5.5m), V. Walker ($2m), Svitek ($1m), Owens ($1m), L. McCown ($840k), Sidbury ($780k – IR no snaps)*

Signed: Umenyiora ($4.25m)*, S. Jackson ($4m)

Baltimore

Lost: Kruger ($8.1m), Ellerbe ($7m), C. Williams ($5.7m), Reed ($5m)

Signed: None

Buffalo

Lost: Levitre ($7.8m), Rinehart ($1.75m)

Signed: Lawson ($3m), Branch ($3m)

Cincinnati

Lost: Lawson ($3m), Skuta ($1.5m), Sims ($1.5m), Gradkowski ($1.3m), J. Brown ($930k)*

Signed: Alex Smith ($880k), Mike Pollak ($780k – 68 snaps)*

Dallas

Lost: J. Phillips ($1.75m), Jenkins ($1.5m), Butler ($1.5m), Ogletree ($1.3m)*, Coleman ($1 million - IR)

Signed: Durant ($1.2m), Allen ($905k)*

Detroit

Lost: Cherilus ($6.9m), Avril ($6.5m), S. Hill ($3.8m), Durant ($1.2m)

Signed: Quin ($4.7m), Bush ($4m), J. Jones ($3.2m)

Green Bay

Lost: Jennings ($9.5m), Walden ($4m)

Signed: None

Houston

Lost: Barwin ($6m), Casey ($4.8m), Quin ($4.7m), Forsett ($1m), Ball ($1m), D. Jones ($905k)

Signed: Reed ($5m), Lechler ($1.8m), G. Jones ($1m)

New England

Lost: Welker ($6m), Thomas ($3.5m), Chung ($3m), Woodhead ($1.8m)

Signed: Amendola ($5.5m), Sopoanga ($3.7m), Svitek ($1m)

New York Giants

Lost: Bennett ($5.1m), Umenyiora ($4.25m)*, Hixon ($1.2m), Blackburn ($1m)

Signed: Myers ($3.6m), J. Brown ($930k)*, Mundy ($780k), Murphy ($715k – 100 snaps)*

New York Jets

Lost: Landry ($6m), Keller ($4.3m), DeVito ($4.2m), Greene ($3.3m), Bell ($905k), Slauson ($815k)

Signed: Goodson ($2.3m), Barnes ($1.3m)

Oakland

Lost: Bryant ($6.8m), Wheeler ($5.2m), Myers ($3.6m), Goodson ($2.3m), Lechler ($1.8m), Shaughnessy ($1m), Mitchell ($725k)

Signed: Roach ($3.25m), Maiava ($2m), Walker ($2m), Sims ($1.5m), Jenkins ($1.5m), Porter ($1.2m), Hunter ($840k), Jennings ($630k)*

Pittsburgh

Lost: Wallace ($12m), K. Lewis ($5.1m), Mendenhall ($2.5m), Allen ($905k)*, Mundy ($780k)

Signed: Gradkowski ($1.3m)

St. Louis

Lost: Amendola ($5.5m), S. Jackson ($4m), Gibson ($3.25m), Fletcher ($2.6m), Dahl ($1.75m), Turner ($1.5m)

Signed: Long ($8.5m), Cook ($7.0m)

San Diego

Lost: Vasquez ($5.9m), Cason ($2m), V. Martin ($2m), Barnes ($1.3m), Jammer ($1.1m), A. Franklin ($1.1m), S. Phillips ($1m)

Signed: Cox ($5m), Freeney ($4.4m - IR), Dunlap ($2m), Woodhead ($1.8m), J. Phillips ($1.75m), Rinehart ($1.75m), Ohrnberger ($675k)*

San Francisco

Lost: Goldson ($8.25m), Jean-Francois ($5.5m), Walker ($4.4m), Sopoaga ($3.7m), Ginn ($1m)

Signed: Dorsey ($3m), Dawson ($2.4m), Dahl ($1.75m), Skuta ($1.5m)

Tampa Bay

Lost: Bennett ($4.8m), Miller ($2.25m), Biggers ($1.5m), Hayes ($1m)

Signed: Goldson ($8.25m), Landri ($1.6m), Casillas ($1.4m), Ogletree ($1.3m)*

More details

Last year all players on full-season IR were counted. I followed that rule again this year, even though AdamJT13 noted that this was not always the case in the past.

The following players were listed above but were not counted in compensatory pick equations for the listed reasons:

• Mike Pollak, IND to CIN, low salary, too few snaps

• Josh Brown, CIN to NYG, did not play full season for CIN in prior year

• Kevin Ogletree, DAL to TB, cut before midseason

• Will Allen, PIT to DAL, cut before midseason, signed back with PIT

• Rich Ohrnberger, BUF to SD, low salary, too few snaps

• Lawrence Sidbury, ATL to IND, low salary, no snaps (full season IR)

• Rashad Jennings, JAC to OAK, low salary

Atlanta has the most variables affecting their situation. As is mentioned above McCown had a low salary and few game snaps, but I believe that he is just over the qualification threshold. Sidbury was signed for a little less, and did not play at all, so he was not counted. It would not matter if he did count, as Atlanta reached their four-pick limit. The Falcons also signed two players coming off of “voidable” deals. Stephen Jackson voided his contract in St. Louis, and the Giants voided their contract with Osi Umenyiora. I treated Jackson as a qualified player because it was not the team’s decision to lose him. Umenyiora’s “voidable” deal was just a way to push money to the future for cap purposes, so I did not reward the team for losing him. If Jackson is not counted, it could give Atlanta another 7th round pick if they have not hit their limit. If Umenyiora counts as a signing, it would likely take away a 7th round pick, but there is a slight chance Atlanta could lose their 5th for Grimes.

In addition to the Umenyiora situation described above, the New York Giants have a few other players that could affect their situation. Brandon Myers is consistently described as having a “voidable” contract, but in reality it is simply a deal with no guaranteed money remaining and a big salary bump in 2014 which is unlikely to get paid. Louis Murphy signed for $715,000 but barely played, so I had no problem not counting him. Ryan Mundy is the big wild card. He signed for $780,000, a relatively low amount, and played 667 snaps. I think that qualifies him as a significant contributor to the team, and with players at barely higher salaries and much fewer snaps counted in past years, I think Mundy qualifies for the comp pick equations. If he does not, the Giants would receive an extra 7th round pick.

Oakland had a lot of activity. Rashad Jennings was a useful pickup for them, playing half of the team’s offensive snaps, but he made far below the lowest previous salary for a qualifying player. I did not count him. I did count Jason Hunter, who made more money than Ryan Mundy with a similar number of snaps, and Mike Mitchell, who was a starter for Carolina at a similar salary as Phillip Wheeler, who qualified the previous year.

San Francisco lost players at higher salaries than they signed. Dan Skuta and Craig Dahl may be good special teams players, but you wonder whether they could have obtained good special teams players with some potential for $1 million a year less each with the 5th round comp picks that were cancelled out by their signings.

And finally, since this is a Philly website, it's probably worth noting quickly here that the Eagles will not be rewarded a compensatory pick this year.

[Fat Elvis]

Geno Smith

[Direckshun]

Unsurprisingly, he has the Packers down with two compensatory picks -- one of them a 3rd, the highest possible compensatory pick.

[Bowser]

If Dorsey sits on his hands in the same fashion as the Packers did while he was there, then I would assume that means Dorsey believes Alex Smith is as good as Aaron Rodgers is. The Packers have always been in contention due to the fact that they have had superior play from the most important position on the field, and therefore could be frivolous when it came to chasing free agents.

[Dayze]

Originally Posted by Fat Elvis

Geno Smith

.
Well timed

[Easy 6]

With the handful of cuts that are surely on the way, I bet they can scrape together enough for atleast one difference maker free agent.

Preferably a wide receiver.

[BossChief]

One thing I'm interested to see from Dorsey is if he will chose to move around in the draft like Ted Thomson did.

Go back and look at GBs draft history...they were moving up and down in every draft.

I'd love to see Dorsey use his contacts he has made over the years to be able to use the draft in a similar fashion.

[Direckshun]

Andy Reid has a storied history of moving all over the draft as well.

And yet... 2013 comes and goes, and we stay put with all eight of our picks.

Don't know. Maybe people just don't trade with the Chiefs. We've never been big movers on draft day.

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

Andy Reid has a storied history of moving all over the draft as well.

And yet... 2013 comes and goes, and we stay put with all eight of our picks.

Don't know. Maybe people just don't trade with the Chiefs. We've never been big movers on draft day.

Yeah, well, considering our last two GM's, I just can't imagine how other GM's would be willing to deal with those guys, unless it absolutely benefitted the other team. READ: they seem to be egotistical a-holes that would seemingly try to bully their way to good deals.

[Direckshun]

Originally Posted by Bowser

Yeah, well, considering our last two GM's, I just can't imagine how other GM's would be willing to deal with those guys, unless it absolutely benefitted the other team. READ: they seem to be egotistical a-holes that would seemingly try to bully their way to good deals.

And yet we bring in TWO guys that have made their living trading all over the draft, and we stay put for 8 picks.

I don't know. It's puzzling.

[Bowser]

Originally Posted by Direckshun

And yet we bring in TWO guys that have made their living trading all over the draft, and we stay put for 8 picks.

I don't know. It's puzzling.

I think they wanted to pick at the top of each round last year, especially considering the lightning overhaul they were attempting to do with the roster. You're right - these guys historically don't like to stay put in the draft. That's why I expect the wheeling and dealing to commence this year.

[Dunerdr]

I have to think we scrape up the cash to bring in a vet defensive back. It probably won't be a guy everyone thinks is sexy but it will probably be a guy that does what's asked. I picture ol boy from Baltimore with the funny name that sounds like I beg hoes. But if all of our picks from last season come back healthy it will be like two drafts. If commings can come in and play a little and Davis spells Charles a few carries. Then fisher comes in 20lbs heavier. I honestly think if kelce comes back at 75% he's twice as good as anything that was behind Fasano this year.