Should we start Dyson in game 3

[penbrook]

Aoki has done nothing this postseason batting wise. He is a major defensive liability especially in San Fran where RF is a bit interesting. You move Cain over to RF and have the best outfield in all of baseball. You move Infante up to the 2 spot and have Dyson hit 7th.

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Two months is not a representative sample size. If it was, Chris Shelton would be Babe Ruth and not a scrub, and Mike Morse would have been the AL MVP last year.

If he was just swinging and missing, he wouldn't be drawing more walks.

He's also not flying out on the infield at a ruinous rate. If he was, his IFF% would correlate with poor hitting months, and it isn't there. He hit more IFFs in May than September and posted his second best month of offensive production for the entire year.

In August Gordon tore the cover off the ball. He saw 475 pitches, of which, 293 were strikes, for a 61.6% strike rate. And he killed the ball that month.

In September Gordon saw 445 pitches, of which, 256 were strikes, for a 57.5% strike percentage.

That indicates that he was actually more selective in September.

The data just doesn't support your conclusion.

Not if he's swinging and missing good pitches. I said he was still being selective. Two months is not insignificant. He's striking out more and getting on base less. You can analyze it all you want but that's the bottom line and over a two-month period, it is worth being concerned about.

Are you trying to argue he's been just as good the last two months as he was prior? You're just saying he's been unlucky?

[Prison Bitch]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

all of the money we'll save on Butler and Shields is going to go to arbitration raises

No

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

Not if he's swinging and missing good pitches. I said he was still being selective. Two months is not insignificant. He's striking out more and getting on base less. You can analyze it all you want but that's the bottom line and over a two-month period, it is worth being concerned about.

Are you trying to argue he's been just as good the last two months as he was prior? You're just saying he's been unlucky?

Yes, he's been unlucky. Every metric you can find supports that conclusion.

He's not swinging and missing good pitches. That's demonstrated by his OSwing%, his ZSwing% and his contact rate

There is also not a single person in the analytical field who things that 150 PAs is a significant sample size.

Yes, he's been just as good. That's supported by his walk rate, and his LD rate. He's hitting the ball just as hard and walking more often. He's not swinging at a lot more strikes. If that was the case, he wouldn't have seen four percent fewer strikes.

In order for your claim to have validity, he'd have to be missing at pitches out of the zone 30% more than he normally does, and there is no indication that is the case.

[ChiefsCountry]

Lots of stupidity in this thread.

[CoMoChief]

If Aoki isn't hitting then he's practically worthless because Dyson can do whatever Aoki can plus be a terror on the basepath.

I'm worried about us facing Tim Hudson though. Dude's gonna be pumped up IIRC it's his first WS in his long career...he's been one of my favorite pitchers and he's a god damn grinder, an innings eater with Maddux-like placement. Dude's a gamer.

I hope this team can win 1 game out there.

[cosmo20002]

Originally Posted by 'Hamas' Jenkins

Yes, he's been unlucky. Every metric you can find supports that conclusion.

He's not swinging and missing good pitches. That's demonstrated by his OSwing%, his ZSwing% and his contact rate

There is also not a single person in the analytical field who things that 150 PAs is a significant sample size.

Yes, he's been just as good. That's supported by his walk rate, and his LD rate. He's hitting the ball just as hard and walking more often. He's not swinging at a lot more strikes. If that was the case, he wouldn't have seen four percent fewer strikes.

In order for your claim to have validity, he'd have to be missing at pitches out of the zone 30% more than he normally does, and there is no indication that is the case.

I'm not saying you can judge someone's career by a given stretch that size. But it's 25% of the season. It's got to mean something.

[BigCatDaddy]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

all of the money we'll save on Butler and Shields is going to go to arbitration raises

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

No

Right. There wont be 21 mil in arb raises.

[Hootie]

well let's see

we'll be giving raises to Herrera, Davis, Holland, Cain, Dyson, Escobar, Moustakas, and Hosmer

a few other slight raises like to Perez (250K)

A raise to Infante (like 2.5M)

1.5M raise to Gordon

1.5M raise to Vargas

Probably a few more guys I'm missing

so uh, yeah

that $22M coming off of the books with Butler/Shields is pretty much accounted for

[Hootie]

Holland is gonna get like a 5M raise, Hosmer 2M, Cain 3M, Dyson 1.5M, Escobar 2M, Moose 2M, Herrera 2M, Davis 3M

so yep

Glass is gonna have to give Dayton 100-110 to play with, and much deserved, after what we've done this year...we're gonna sell more season tickets, and we certainly have a team built for another deep playoff run which is pure profit for the Royals as well

and 2019 is gonna be a big, big, big payday for Glass...so we can operate in the red while our core is still together for a few years

[penbrook]

Originally Posted by Hootie 2.0

Holland is gonna get like a 5M raise, Hosmer 2M, Cain 3M, Dyson 1.5M, Escobar 2M, Moose 2M, Herrera 2M, Davis 3M

so yep

Glass is gonna have to give Dayton 100-110 to play with, and much deserved, after what we've done this year...we're gonna sell more season tickets, and we certainly have a team built for another deep playoff run which is pure profit for the Royals as well

and 2019 is gonna be a big, big, big payday for Glass...so we can operate in the red while our core is still together for a few years

Davis will be making 7 mil next year. So your saying were gonna pay Davis 10 mil

[Prison Bitch]

You said arb, and besides you can take off another 8M for Hoch ad Chen if we are now talking about Infante and Guthrie

[Hootie]

Davis on the books for 4.8 this year. So 2.2M raise to be exact.

[Hootie]

Duffy is another guy who will get a healthy raise via arbitration.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Originally Posted by cosmo20002

I'm not saying you can judge someone's career by a given stretch that size. But it's 25% of the season. It's got to mean something.

It doesn't mean as much as we would like to think. I know it's crazy, but it's not a large enough data point to draw a dispositive conclusion from. Baseball is more prone to variance than any sport, and in an attempt to provide order to the chaos we usually end up constructing narratives that don't hold up.

(Also, your problems w/ him likely don't go back to August, he was white hot then, but September, so your SS is even smaller).

[Hootie]

Originally Posted by Prison Bitch

You said arb, and besides you can take off another 8M for Hoch ad Chen if we are now talking about Infante and Guthrie

Probably try and resign Hoch.

We'll probably end up with about $5M to play with if we want to keep our payroll the same as 2014.

IMO, Glass should approve Dayton a spending limit of $110M for 2015. Dayton should use it responsibly, and not simply use it to use it, though.